Economic Conditions Society of American Military Engineers July 26, 2012 William W. Hall, Jr....
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Transcript of Economic Conditions Society of American Military Engineers July 26, 2012 William W. Hall, Jr....
Economic Conditions
Society of American Military EngineersJuly 26, 2012
William W. Hall, Jr.Professor of Economics
Department of Economics and Financeand
Senior EconomistH. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services
Cameron School of BusinessThe University of North Carolina Wilmington
Web Slides
• http://www.csb.uncw.edu/cbes/events/index.htm
Population Change
2000 2010% Change 2000-
2010Brunswick County1 73,143 107,431 46.9
New Hanover County2 160,307 202,667 26.4
Wilmington3 75,838 106,476 40.4
Pender County 41,082 52,217 27.1
Wilmington MSA 274,532 362,315 32.0
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 18.5
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 9.7
Source: Bureau of the Census, US Department of Commerce.
1 2nd fastest growing county in the state2 9th largest county in the state3 8th largest city in the state
Wilmington MSA, NC, & US Economic Growth
2009 2010 2011 2012(F) 2013(F)
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Wil MSANCUS
Source: US Department of Commerce; Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary, Economics Group,Wells Fargo Securities, July 20, 2012; Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast, UNC Charlotte,Babson Capital Management, LLC, June 5, 2012; Ravija Badarinathi and William W. Hall, Jr., for the H.David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, UNCWilmington.
Forecast Risks
• “Fiscal cliff”• Restrained export growth• Inflation• Federal Reserve action
“Fiscal Cliff”
• n. A moment in early 2013 when Federal tax cuts expire and automatic spending reductions take effect (see sequestration), removing $600 billion (4% of US GDP) from the already shaky economy over the coming year.
Options for Dealing with the “Fiscal Cliff”
• Congress and the White House could– Agree to a large package of tax hikes and spending
cuts or– Rewrite the laws to postpone the cliff to another
day
Options for Dealing with the “Fiscal Cliff”
• Congress and the White House could– Agree to a large package of tax hikes and spending
cuts or– Rewrite the laws to postpone the cliff to another
day (most likely)
Unemployment Rates
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 May-11 May-120%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
BrunswickNew HanoverPenderNCUS
Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.
Unemployment Rates
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q120%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
BrunswickNew HanoverPenderNCUS
Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce;Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.
Wilmington MSA Employment “Spider” Chart(10 Quarters Before and After the End of the Recession)
Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; H. David and Diane SwainCenter for Business and Economic Services, Cameron School of Business, UNC Wilmington.
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
July 1990/March 1991April 2001/December 2001January 2008/June 2009
Wilmington, NC, MSA 2011 Employment and Wages
Average Annual Wage
NAICSSector2
% of Total Employment
Wage($)
% of All-Sector Average
% of State Sector
Health Care & Social Assistance 15.3 41,222 109.3 96.3
Retail Trade 14.2 23,834 63.2 96.7Local Government 13.5 41,284 109.2 105.6Accommodations & Food Services 12.8 14,095 37.4 94.7Educational Services 8.6 37,744 100.1 94.9Construction 6.9 45,659 121.1 110.5Public Administration 6.0 42,940 113.9 98.4
Professional & Technical Services 5.8 61,371 162.8 91.7
Manufacturing 5.6 66,754 177.1 126.9
Administrative & Waste Services 5.0 28,230 74.9 93.3
All Sectors 37,700 89.5
Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce.
1 Largest ten employment sectors
Retail Sales Growth Rates
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Ending Apr. 2011
Year Ending Apr. 2012
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
BrunswickNew HanoverPenderNC
Source: NC Department of Revenue.
Retail Sales Growth Rates(Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter)
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
BrunswickNew HanoverPenderNC
Source: NC Department of Revenue.
Wilmington International AirportAir Passenger Traffic Growth Rates
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Ending Apr. 2011
Year Ending Apr. 2012
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
BoardingsDeboardings
Source: Wilmington International Airport.
Wilmington International AirportAir Passenger Traffic Growth Rates(Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter)
Source: Wilmington International Airport.
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
BoardingsDeboardings
Port of WilmingtonContainer Tonnage Growth Rates
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Ending June 2011
Year Ending June 2012
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
SourceSource: NC State Ports Authority.
Port of WilmingtonContainer Tonnage Growth Rates
(Compared to Year-Earlier Quarter)
Source: NC State Ports Authority.
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
-8%
2%
12%
22%
32%
42%
52%
2010 Travelers’ Expenditures
CountyExpenditures
($ M)Payrolls
($ M)Employment
(000)
Sales Tax Revenues
($ M)
Local Tax Revenues
($ M)Brunswick 395.381 73.63 4.60 20.44 25.71
New Hanover 400.882 91.62 5.04 21.59 15.72
Pender 72.833 12.31 0.71 2.16 5.20
Wilmington MSA 869.09 177.56 10.35 45.71 36.63
Source: NC Department of Commerce.
1 10th in the state2 9th in the state3 42nd in the state
Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes(5-Month Centered Moving Average)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors (WRAR)Brunswick County Association of Realtors (BCAR)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
WRAR BCAR
Source: NC Association of Realtors.
Average Annual Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes
Source: NC Association of Realtors.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
WRARBCAR
Average Quarterly Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes
Source: NC Association of Realtors.
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
WRARBCAR
Foreclosures
Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts.
Brunswick County New Hanover County Pender County North Carolina
2008 900 1,107 327 53,938
% Change 2007-08 83.3 41.3 36.8 9.0
2009 1,642 1,483 473 60,251
% Change 2008-09 82.4 45.8 44.6 11.7
2010 1,693 1,881 521 66,282
% Change 2009-10 3.1 26.8 10.1 10.0
2011 1,458 1,559 419 53,240
% Change 2010-11 -13.9 -17.1 -19.6 -19.7
----------------------------------
-----------------------
------------------------------ ------------------------- ---------------------------
June 2010-May 2011 1,577 1,790 499 62,277
% Change Previous Period -15.9 66.2 -12.6 -9.8
June 2011-May 2012 1,323 1,777 389 50,996
% Change Previous Period -16.1 -0.7 -22.0 -18.1
Eastern NC Military Installations
2010 ImpactCamp
LejeuneMCAS New
River Fort Bragg Pope AFBSeymour
Johnson AFBAssigned Military Personnel 48,000 340 53,000 5,400 5,600
Military Dependents 10,500 6,400 16,270 7,000 5,200
Civilian Employees 5,000 480 12,700 1,000 1,000
Military and Civilian Payrolls $249.6 M $2.9 B $275.6 M $331.7 M
Contracts with Local Vendors $3 B $261 M $457.8 M $131.9 M $199.6 M
Source: Web Sites.
Upcoming Events
• Economic Outlook Conference– Tuesday, October 9, 2012– Burney Center, UNC Wilmington campus
Special Thanks
Quarterly Barometer
• http://www.csb.uncw.edu/cbes/newsletter/index.htm