Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and Camelina Production

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ECONOMIC COMPARISON OF SPRING CANOLA AND CAMELINA PRODUCTION Kathleen Painter and Stephen Guy University of Idaho & Washington State University

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Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and Camelina Production. Kathleen Painter and Stephen Guy University of Idaho & Washington State University. Commodity Prices Return to Long-Run Averages. Slimmer Margins require sharper pencils!. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and Camelina Production

Page 1: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

ECONOMIC COMPARISON OF SPRING CANOLA AND CAMELINA

PRODUCTION

Kathleen Painter and Stephen Guy

University of Idaho &

Washington State University

Page 2: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

COMMODITY PRICES RETURN TO LONG-RUN AVERAGES

Page 3: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

SLIMMER MARGINS REQUIRE SHARPER PENCILS!

Unprofitable rotational crops pull down overall profitability

However, rotations are critical to maintaining resilient, healthy crops

Diversify your cropping systems in order to spread risk Right now, grain prices are low but dry peas, lentils, and

canola prices are well above long-run averages

Page 4: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

CAMELINA:A COLD-TOLERANT OILSEED

Page 5: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

SUMMARY OF RETURNS BY CROP FOR

>18” RAINFALL ($/ACRE): CONV TILL

Crop Prices:$/unit:

WW $5.28SB $107.00SWSW $5.28HRSW $7.87P $0.14L $0.34G $0.38SC $0.15CML $0.18

$70

-$66

-$19

$58

$27

$149

$116

-$70

$86

-$100

-$50

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$/a

cre

/ye

ar

WW SB SWSW HRSW P L G SC CML

Page 6: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

SUMMARY OF RETURNS BY CROP FOR

>18” RAINFALL ($/ACRE): NO-TILLCrop Prices:

$/unit:WW $5.28SB $107.00SWSW $5.28HRSW $7.87P $0.14L $0.34G $0.38SC $0.15CML $0.18

$69

-$41

-$14

$81

$32

$154

$121

-$50

$78

-$100

-$50

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$/ac

re/y

ear

WW SB SWSW HRSW P L G SC CML

Page 7: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

SUMMARY OF RETURNS BY CROP FOR

< 18” RAINFALL, CONV. TILL ($/ACRE)

-$40

-$20

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$33 $31

-$35

$55

WW HRSW SB CML

$/a

cre

/ye

ar

Crop Prices:$/unit:

WW $5.28SB $107.00SWSW $5.28HRSW $7.87P $0.14L $0.34G $0.38SC $0.15CML $0.18

Crop Yields:units/ac:

WW 78 buSB 1.5 tonsHRSW 42 buCML 1400 lb

Page 8: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

CAMELINA GROWER YIELD EXPECTATIONS

Annual cropping area, >18” ppt per year1800 lb per acre

Intermediate cropping zone, 16” rainfall1400 – 1500 lb per acre

Low rainfall zone, 14” rainfall1200 lb per acre

Page 9: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

CAMELINA PRODUCTION Early-seeded crop Can be drilled or broadcast seeded

Valmar applicator can be used to broadcast seed and fertilizer

Low input costs $15 per acre for seed 50 lb N, 10 lb S is typical (less than $40/ac) $16 per acre for Poast plus COC

Few pest problems Rotational crop for grains in areas with few

alternatives

Page 10: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

OPERATIONS FOR DIRECT SEED OR BROADCAST PLANTING OF CAMELINA

March Spray weeds (e.g. Roundup)

Mid-March to early April4-5 lb camelina50 lb N, 10 lb S typical fertilizer applicationUse broadcast spreader such as a Valmar

applicator or a direct seed drill May

Poast herbicide @1.5pt plus 2 pt COC ($16/ac) August

Direct combine (shattering not a problem)

Page 11: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

OPERATIONS FOR CONVENTIONAL TILLAGE CAMELINA PRODUCTION

October Heavy harrow

March Cultivate with harrow Chisel/harrow/fertilize with ripper shooter

50 lb N, 10 lb S typical fertilizer application

Mid-March to early April Cultivate Drill 4-5 lb camelina seed per acre

May Apply Poast herbicide @1.5pt plus 2 pt COC ($16/ac)

August Direct combine (shattering not a problem)

Page 12: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

COSTS BY NON-GRAIN ALTERNATIVE CROPS:

CONVENTIONAL TILLAGE

Seed Fert Pest Mach VC Other Mach FC0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PLGSCCML

Page 13: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

NON-GRAIN ALTERNATIVE CROPS:REVENUE, COSTS, & NET RETURNS

P L G SC CML-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

RevenueTotal CostNet over TC

Page 14: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

COOK FARM NO-TILL TRIALS

1 2 3 4 5 6

WW

77.322104861111

1

162.64533657407

4

94.408520370370

4

104.40009131944

4

125.69345532407

4

127.45271944444

4

SW

43.326595138888

9

80.367551388888

9

-60.413043402777

7

98.679060763888

9

-19.009684027777

8

-3.7331347222222

3

Alt -69.109926666666

7

-51.119875833333

3

-87.900594333333

3

3.1520716666666

7

-66.241631666666

7

-73.994237666666

7

-125

-75

-25

25

75

125

175

Average Returns by Crop,2001-2006 ($/ac/yr)

WW

SW

Alt$/a

cre

/year

Page 15: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

ROUNDUP READY CANOLA LOSES LEAST…

1 2 3 4 5 6

SB -48.5 6.89 -88.3 30.47 -35.6 -20.7

SC -12.1 -54.2 -62.9 79.72 -119 -74.4

SP -32.3 -125 -90.9 -36.3 -170 -150

-250-200-150-100

-500

50100

$/ac

re

Net returns for alternative crops

SB

SC

SP

WB

WC

WP

Page 16: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

ROUNDUP READY NO-TILL CANOLA YIELDS BY GRIDPOINT & YEAR

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Spring Canola Yields by Gridpoint Cook Agronomy Farm 2001-20062001 16 ppt 2002 19 ppt 2003 19 ppt

2004 15 ppt 2005 15 ppt 2006 21 ppt

lb/a

c

Mean: 2011 lb/ac Standard Deviation: 754 lb/ac

lb p

er

acr

e

Page 17: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

WB WP WC/SC

SC SP SB SC SC

SC

WP WBWC/

SC/WL

SB SP WC/WL

WP SB WB

SP

SP

Page 18: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

COOK FARM: EFFECT OF ALTERNATIVE CROP SELECTION ON WINTER WHEAT YIELDS

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 2 3 4 5 6

$/ac

reNet returns for winter wheat by

alternative crop in rotation

SB

SC

SP

WB

WC

WP

Years:

Page 19: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

ROUNDUP READY CANOLA IS ECONOMICALLY COMPETITIVE WITH ALTERNATIVE CROPS

Reduces herbicide costs & weed pressure Prices were very strong earlier this year

Prices are recovering from a large decline last fall

Page 20: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

CAMELINA & CANOLA AS ALTERNATIVE CROPS FOR DRYLAND CROPPING

SYSTEMS

Camelina yields are generally less volatile than canola yields

Input costs are lower for camelina Few insect pests Lower fertility requirements

With contracts prices of $0.18 per lb, net returns were higher than for grains in the intermediate cropping zone

Rotation may need to flex to accommodate rainfall Winter wheat/spring grain/camelina/(fallow) OR Winter wheat/camelina/fallow

Page 21: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

LIMITED RESEARCH ON CAMELINA IN U.S.

Camelina results are based on just a few years of research and growers’ experiences in this country

Estimates of production levels and input usage will be further refined as more information becomes available

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RESOURCES

EM 8953-E Camelina by Ehrensing and Guy, January 2008, Oregon State University

http://extension.oregonstate.edu/catalog

Great Plains Oil Co. website: www.camelinacompany.com

Canola price data: Northern Canola Growers’ Assoc. www.northerncanola.com

Budgets:http://csanr.wsu.edu/Publications/FarmMgmtEconomics.htm

Page 28: Economic Comparison of Spring Canola and  Camelina  Production

CONTACT INFORMATION:

Kate Painter, PhDAg Economics AnalystUI AERSMoscow ID 83843-2334 Office: (208) 885-6041 Cell: (509) 432-5755 [email protected]