Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa Energy Planning and...

Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa

Energy Planning and Capacity Needs in Eastern Africa

Economic Commission for AfricaSub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA)

OutlineBackground: the Energy Sector in Eastern Africa

and its planning requirements

Planning capacity assessments: key findings and recommendations from the case of Rwanda and the region

The role of regional and international institutions in energy planning capacity development

A way foreword


The Energy Sector in Eastern Africa: Its Planning Requirements

Energy Transition

Percent of population using different types of cooking fuels.

Sample policy response and planning requirement - Rwanda

MINALOC and MININFRA shall expand partnership agreements with financial institutions including SACCOs in order to expand credit access to households in order to facilitate fuel switching.

New incentives are needed to incentivize retailers and wholesale fuel distributers to increase investments in gas storage facilities in line with supporting the policy objective of increasing fuel switching.



Energy Access

Comparison of energy access levels by region (% with access to electricity).

Electricity access rates: • 1% in South Sudan (leaving 9.3 million people without access), • 11% in D.R. Congo (leaving nearly 59 million people without access), • 12% in Uganda (leaving more than 30 million people without access), • 13.9% in Tanzania (leaving nearly 38 million people without access), • 16.1% in Kenya (leaving more than 33 million people without access); • 17% in Ethiopia (leaving nearly 69 million people without access).


Energy Access …

The state of energy access in member States of the Eastern Africa sub-region is generally quite low, ranging from 1% , 2% to 98%.


Energy Access and Middle Income Country Goal

Real GDP through 2017 (World Economic Outlook).


Energy access deficit relative to Middle Income countries’ average


Energy access deficit relative to the SE4ALL target



System reliability

Power outage in days/year Number of outages per month


Enterprises identifying electricity as a share of total business constraint.



Generation capacity

Encouraging generation capacity expansion projects are in the pipeline.



Transmission and distribution

Rwanda Uganda


Planning Requirements … Energy Planning and Technology Choice

Energy sector development has not received adequate attention for much of the period between 1980-2000.

In the 2000s, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, for example, have added 51%, 45%, 68% and 52% of their total capacity, respectively.

Emergency generation schemes has pushed the region to opt for technologies that offer quick capacity upgrade, which in many cases were thermal generation options.

As early as 2006, the cost of emergency generation has been substantial, between 0.96% - 3.29% of GDP.


Energy Planning and Technology Choice …



Energy trade and enhanced electricity supplyProjected Energy Trade in Select sub-regional Countries

Country Import/Sharing Scheme Import Country Trading/sharing Year

BurundiLake Kivu gas plant 2 = 66.7 MW

-Rusumo = 20 MW 2015Rusizi III = 48.3 MW 2018Rusizi IV = 95.7 MW 2019

Kenya Phase I = 1,000 MW Ethiopia 2013Phase II = 1,000 MW (200 to Tanzania)

2013, Tanz. 2015

RwandaKivu gas plant 2 = 66.7 MW 2015Rusumo = 20 MW 2015Ruzizi III = 48.3 MW 2018Ruzizi IV = 89 MW 2019

Tanzania Ethiopia = 200 MW EthiopiaZambia

2014Zambia = 200 MW 2015

South Sudan Ethiopia = 50-100 MW (for Malakal)

Ethiopia -


Energy Planning – Emerging Issues for PlannersEnergy security management

Production Capacity Risks Energy Conversion Capacity through Power Plants Oil Refinery and Natural Gas Distribution Capacity Energy Imports Transportation Strategic Reserves Fuel Switching Capacity

Regional and Global energy targets EAC energy access targets NEPAD energy sector targets SE4ALL targets - Country Action Plan, Investment Prospectus

Climate change Resilience, adaptation


Energy and Sustainable DevelopmentThe Eastern Africa SDGs Priorities

Goals and Targets Indicators for monitoring progress

Economic Transformation

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty

Goal 2: Ensure food security and adequate nutrition

Goal 3: Reduce the rate of unemployment

Goal 4: Increase and Improve existing Infrastructure Target 1: Improve infrastructures internally and those that link the regions (roads, energy stations, airports) by 20% by 2030

1. Proportion of the population with access to electricity.

Social Needs

Goal 5: Improved access to health facilities

Goal 6: Improve education facilities

Environmental Protection

Goal 7: Promote efficient use on natural resources and reverse environmental degradation

Target 5: Increase access to energy sources by the year 2030


Regional VoicesAt the 17th Intergovermental Committee of Experts Meeting

of UNECA in Uganda in 2013, member States recommended:

Commit to achieve Sustainable Energy for All objectives by 2030, supplemented by accurate data, monitoring and evaluation frameworks;

Sustain efforts at developing indigenous renewable energy resources enabled through effective private sector participation, public-private partnerships and public sector initiatives guided by energy sector planning.

Commit to energy sector institutional capacity development.


Energy Planning: the Rwanda Gap Assessment


Recommendations

Rwanda should take better advantage of its membership in regional and international institutions, which are involved in capacity building in the area of national and regional energy system planning.

These include the East Africa Power Pool (EAPP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).


Recommendations

Gather baseline data of the energy sector to enable planning;Establish and strengthen formal planning functions within

energy sector institutions;Acquire appropriate tools, methods and frameworks to aid the

organizations in their planning activities;Enable experts to acquire knowledge and hands-on training on

tools, methods and frameworks in energy planning. Facilitate sharing of experience with peers from other countries

in the region and learn best practices from international energy planning experts.


Energy Planning Training and Feedback

UNECA, in partnership with IRENA and SEI conducted an Energy Planning Training from Sept. 29 – Oct. 3, 2014.

The training offered planning capacity development through utilization of two tools.

Participants, from 11 Eastern African countries, offered recommendations.


Energy Planning Training and Feedback

Sustained training activities to build capacitySupport national database development and managementSupport strengthening the planning to policy linksRegional trainings supplemented by country trainingsSupport national energy sector model developmentIncrease the role of institutions, such as UNECA and IRENA, in

building the planning capacity of member StatesOffer capacity development trainings of longer duration (1-3

months) Conducting institutional planning capacity assessment, and

support capacity development strategy developmentResource mobilization for energy planning


Potential Next Steps

IRENA can play a valuable role in Eastern Africa in the energy planning capacity development area by:

Bringing its capacity development initiative to bear on planning capacity enhancement in Eastern Africa;

Strengthening partnership with organizations, such as UNECA, in organizing tailored capacity development programs to respond to member State demands;

Supporting national energy data development, particularly in the area of renewables, to enable long-term planning.


Potential Next Steps

Additionally:

Bringing its regional renewable energy development and resources assessment tools to supplement planning capacity at the country level;

By bringing capacity, on its role as the Renewable Energy hub for SE4ALL, to support development of country Action Agenda focused on renewables;

Organizing capacity development trainings, focused on planning tools, methods and frameworks for an extended duration.

Thank you!

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)

Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SRO-EA)

www.uneca.orgTwitter : @eca_sro_ea

Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa Energy Planning and...

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