11

22

Economic aspects of migration and remigration

Līga Menģelsone Director General

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EMIGRATION IN LATVIA AND THE OTHER BALTIC COUNTRIES: CHALLENGES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Riga, 17 December 2012

33

Demography

KEY CHALLENGES

44

Inequality and disparities

KEY CHALLENGES

55

Growth and welfare

KEY CHALLENGES

66

DEMOGRAPHY

Rapidly ageing population

Outflow of people – the labour force

Increased shortage of labour as of 2015

77

OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE

Outflows to other EU country: > 6% of Latvian citizens reside in other EU countries

Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012

88

OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE

Post-enlargement migration: “Low” senders

Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012

In terms

of number

s:SL, EE, LV, CZ,

HU

99

OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE

Stock of CEE citizens recently arrived (<3 years) in another EU MS, in 2011 compared to 2008 (age group 15-

64), change in %

Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012

1010

OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE

Age distribution of recent intra-EU movers (<7 years) from CEE countries, 2010

Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012

1111

OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCEMobile workers from CEE are often (>30%) over-qualified

for their job…

Source: European Commission, 30 October 2012

Share of the workers being over-qualified for their job, by group of citizenship

(2010), in %

1212

OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE

The distribution of EU8 nationals in the EU15

Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012

1313

OUTFLOW OF PEOPLE – THE LABOUR FORCE

Unemployment rates

Source: Central European University, 30 October 2012

1414

DEMOGRAPHY

Negative impact on the Latvian economy, social system and

wellbeing of the people

Lack of skilled workers

Long-term unemployment (45%)

Mismatch of skills or expectations in respect to the vacancies available

1515

INEQUALITY AND DISPARITIES

Latvia: the country with the regional disparities within the country

Latvia: Member State of the EU – the union with enormous inequalities and

disparities

1616

REGIONAL DISPARITIES

Regional GDP per capita 1. variance,%, 2008

Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012

1717

REGIONAL DISPARITIESUnemployment rate, 2011

Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012

1818

REGIONAL DISPARITIESPopulation change in municipal areas 2006 - 2011. Over the past 5

years, the population has grown around Riga

Source: The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, 2012

1919

REGIONAL DISPARITIESLatvia’s GDP is only 58% from the EU 27 average.

Source: Eurostat, 2012

2020

GROWTH AND WELFARE

Accompanying policies to support development of the economy and

rising competitiveness of the country

EU: internal cohesion and level playing field

Latvia: immigration and remigration policy

In support to national aspirations

21

EMPLOYERS’ CONFEDERATION OF

LATVIA

2222

The largest employers’ organisation in Latvia Partner in socioeconomic negotiations with

Parliament, the Government and the Free Trade Union Confederation of Latvia (LBAS)

Unites 66 branch and regional employers’ organizations, as well as 96 enterprises that employ over 50 people

Members of the LDDK employ more than 37% of employees in Latvia (~70% GDP)

EMPLOYERS’ CONFEDERATION OF LATVIA (LDDK)

2323

MEMBERS

2424

MISSION

To represent the interests of Latvian employers for business competitiveness, the quality of work and life

AREAS OF ACTIVITY

Protecting the interests of business people and representing employers in social dialogue

2525

PRIORITIES

Macroeconomic stabilisation

Predictable tax policies

Competitive business environment

Accessibility and quality of human capital

Effective public governance and structural reforms

Sustainable social security system

Strengthening of external economic relations

2626