Economic and Fiscal Situation Latest

8/22/2019 Economic and Fiscal Situation Latest

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Economic and Fiscal Situation

12 June 2013


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Real GDP Trend (%)


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An Overview of Economic Growth (%)

Items Units

Actual Revised Provisional Target

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Agriculture % 3.5 0.2 2.0 3.5 3.3 3.8

Manufacturing % -4.2 1.4 2.5 2.1 3.5 4.5

LS Manufacturing % -6.0 0.4 1.7 1.2 2.8 4.0

Services % 1.3 3.2 3.9 5.3 3.7 4.6

Real GDP Growth % 0.4 2.6 3.7 4.4 3.6 4.4

Inflation % 17.0 10.1 13.7 11.0 7.5 8.0

Investment % of GDP 15.9 14.2 12.5 13.3 12.6 13.5

National Savings % of GDP 12.0 13.6 14.2 12.8 13.5 14.0

Per Capita Income US $ 1,026 1,072 1,275 1,323 1,368 1,420

2005-06 Prices


4/23

Trend in Large Scale Manufacturing (%)

FY 12 FY 13

July 0.9 1.2

August 6.2 -0.7

September 2.7 2.5

October -2.1 2.9

November -1.9 7.4

December 0.7 1.7

January 1.3 5.5

February 7.0 6.8

March -1.2 9.3

April -0.5

May 0.7

June -0.4

July-Mar 1.5 4.3

Source: PBS


5/23

Large Scale Manufacturing

% Change

Sectors showing Growth WeightJul-Mar

FY 13

Paper & Board 2.31 21.97

Rubber Products 0.26 17.61

Pharmaceuticals 3.62 16.35

Coke & Petroleum Products 5.51 13.31

Iron and Steel Products 5.39 13.24

Food Beverages & Tobacco 12.37 7.30

Non Metallic Mineral Products 5.36 5.86

Textile 20.91 0.92

Continue


6/23

Large Scale Manufacturing

% Change

Sectors showing Decline Weight

Jul-Mar

FY 13

Wood Products 0.59 -18.98

Engineering Products 0.40 -15.60

Automobiles 4.61 -11.84

Electronics 1.96 -6.43

Fertilizers 4.44 -5.03

Leather Products 0.86 -2.33

Chemicals 1.72 -1.08

Source: PBS


7/23

Agriculture: Important Crops Production

Crops Actual Target

FY12 FY 13 FY 14

Wheat M. Tons 23.5 24.2 25.0

Rice M. Tons 6.2 5.5 6.4

Sugarcane M. Tons 58.4 62.5 65.0

Maize M. Tons 4.3 4.6 5.0

Cotton M. Bales 13.6 13.0 14.1

Source : PBS , Planning Commission


8/23

Inflation ( May, Y-o-Y, %)

Year CPI Food NonFood

Core SPI WPI

2007-08 19.3 28.5 12.5 12.9 29.9 28.2

2008-09 14.4 12.1 16.3 14.9 11.2 4.7

2009-10 12.3 16.1 10.2 8.2 15.4 19.5

2010-11 12.6 16.1 10.5 9.8 13.7 22.3

2011-12 12.3 11.3 13.1 11.1 8.1 7.1

2012-13 5.1 6.5 4.1 8.1 6.8 4.1

Source: PBS


9/23

Inflation (July-May,%)

Year CPI Food NonFood

Core SPI WPI

2007-08 11.1 16.3 7.3 7.6 15.6 15.1

2008-09 21.6 25.1 18.7 17.7 24.7 19.7

2009-10 9.9 12.4 8.5 7.5 12.8 13.4

2010-11 13.7 18.6 10.8 9.4 16.9 21.1

2011-12 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.5 6.8 10.8

2012-13 7.5 6.6 8.1 9.8 7.8 7.6

Source: PBS


10/23

Trade Performance ($ Billion)

HeadTarget July-April Change

2012-13 2011-12 2012-13 (%)

Exports 25.81 20.47 20.50 0.2

Imports 42.94 33.34 33.04 -0.9

Trade Balance -17.13 -12.88 -12.54 2.6

Source : SBP


11/23

Exports of Major Groups ($ Billion)

Target July-April

2012-13 2011-12 2012-13

(%)

Change

Total 25.81 20.47 20.50 0.2

Food Group 5.21 3.14 3.38 7.6

Textile Group 13.19 10.85 10.63 -2.0

Petroleum Group 1.01 0.92 0.53 -42.4

Other Manufactures Group 5.20 3.77 3.78 0.3

All Other Items 1.20 1.79 2.18 21.8

Source: SBP


12/23

Imports of Major Groups ($ Billion)

Target July-April

2012-13 2011-12 2012-13(%)

Change

Total 42.94 33.34 33.04 -0.9

Food Group 3.56 3.92 3.41 -13.0

Machinery Group 4.27 3.06 3.30 7.8

Transport Group 2.07 1.60 1.37 -14.4

Petroleum Group 15.29 12.04 11.73 -2.6

Textile Group 2.47 1.60 2.20 37.5

Agri & Other Chem Group 3.63 5.70 5.27 -7.5

Metal Group 2.21 1.88 1.98 5.3

Miscellaneous Group 0.83 0.74 0.72 -2.7

All Other Items 8.61 2.80 3.06 9.3

Source: SBP


13/23

Workers Remittances ($ Million)

July-May

2011-12 2012-13 (%) Change

Total 12,069 12,762 5.7

USA 2,128 2,006 -5.7Saudi Arabia 3,353 3,752 11.9

UAE 2,630 2,532 -3.7

Other GCC Countries 1,367 1,470 7.5

UK 1,394 1,774 27.2

EU 336 326 -2.7

Other Countries 520 531 2.2

Source: SBPTarget : US $ 14,091 Million


14/23

Foreign Investment ($ Million)

July-April

2011-12 2012-13

(%)

Change

A. Foreign Private Investment 594.7 1073.0 80.4

Foreign Direct Investment 658.2 853.5 29.7

Portfolio Investment -63.5 219.4 445.5

B. Foreign Public Investment -32.2 195.3 705.7

Total Foreign Investment (A + B) 562.4 1268.3 125.5

Source: SBP


15/23

Country-wise Inflow of FDI ($ Million)

Jul-April

Ultimate Controlling Parent 2012-13 2011-12

U.A.E 281.5 286.0

United States 271.6 216.4

Hongkong 204.5 56.1

United Kingdom 183.4 297.1Italy 172.8 152.6

Switzerland 133.8 117.9

China 95.5 118.3

Philippines 93.3 0.0

Norway 74.9 9.8

Austria 41.2 43.2

Australia 31.1 37.5

Korea (South) 30.7 46.7

Others 279.3 341.7

Total 1893.6 1723.3

Source: SBP0 : amount less than US$ 50,000


16/23

Sector-wise Inflows of FDI ($ Million)

Jul-April

Sector

2012-13 2011-12Oil & Gas Exploration 472.6 481.3

Financial Business 312.1 277.2

Communications 185.2 178.1

Powers 141.0 191.7

Petroleum Refining 133.7 23.7

Transport 98.9 17.6

Chemicals 87.6 98.7

Trade 54.1 38.7

Food 49.2 32.1

Tobacco & Cigarettes 45.1 3.4

Construction 42.4 66.9

Personal Services 26.3 24.8

Others 245.4 289.1

Total 1,893.6 1,723.3

Source: SBP


17/23

Foreign Exchange Reserves

11 June 2013

$ 11.3 Billion

SBP $ 6.3 Billion

Banks $ 5.0 Billion

Source: SBP


18/23

FBR Tax Collection (Rs Billion)

Revenue Head

Target* July-AprilGrowth

2012-13 2012-13 2011-12 (%)

Direct Taxes 908.4 553.7 528.9 4.7

Sales Tax 904.3 669.4 635.2 5.4

Federal Excise 131.1 90.8 95.6 -5.0

Customs 249.6 191.4 166.5 14.9

Total Net Collection 2193.3 1505.2 1426.2 5.5

Source : FBR* : Revised


19/23

Balance of Payment ($ Million)

ItemsActual

FY 09

Actual

FY 10

Actual

FY 11

Actual

FY 12

Target

FY 13

FY 13

Jul-April

Trade Balance -12627 -11536 -10516 -15765 -17126 -12541

Goods: Exports f.o.b 19,121 19,673 25,356 24696 25812 20501

Goods: Imports f.o.b 31,747 31,209 35872 40461 42938 33042

Services(Net) -3,381 -1,690 -1940 -3192 -2494 -619

Income(Net) -4,407 -3,282 -3017 -3245 -3171 -3090

Current transfers (net) 11,154 12,562 15687 17544 18014 14832

Workers Remittance 7,811 8,906 11201 13186 14091 11570

Current account

balance -9,261 -3,946 214 -4658 -4777 -1418

CAD % of GDP -5.1 -2.2 0.1 -2.1 -1.9 -0.6

Exports Growth -6.4 2.9 28.9 -2.6 4.1 0.2

Imports Growth -10.3 -1.7 14.9 12.8 6.9 -0.9


20/23

Causative Factors in Monetary Growth (Rs Billion)

Flows FY 13

July to 24 May,2013FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12

Net Foreign Assets (NFA) -317.4 -150.2 28.0 235.0 -253.6 -138.6

Net Domestic Assets (NDA) 941.4 598.3 612.1 683.0 1200.2 961.5

Net Government Borrowing 583.8 524.0 406.6 579.6 1237.4 1074.2

Borrowing for Budgetary Support554.6 316.4 330.4 590.2 1198.3 1087.6

From SBP 688.7 130.9 44.0 -8.0 505.3 311.8

Credit to Private Sector 408.4 18.9 112.9 121.3 235.2 45.5

Broad Money 624.0 448.1 640.0 918.0 946.6 822.9

Reserve Money 269.7 27.5 171.7 286.5 223.0 326.4

Growth in M2 (%) 15.3 9.6 12.5 15.9 14.1 10.8

Reserve Money Growth(%) 22.3 1.9 11.4 17.1 11.3 14.9

Source: SBP


21/23

Fiscal Framework (Rs. Billions)

Items FY 12Budget

FY 13

FY 12

Jul-Mar

FY 13 *

Jul-Mar

FBR Tax Revenue 1881 2381 1273 1334

Other Revenues 543 153 56 96

Gross Federal Revenue Receipts 2424 2534 1329 1430

Transfer to Provinces (Net) 1090 1459 762 893

Net Federal Revenue Receipts 1334 1775 895 1083

Total Federal Expenditure 2664 2960 2247 2250

Current Expenditure 2347 2550 1962 1973

I nterest 889 926 624 772

Defence507 545 348 406

Other 915 1080 990 795

PSDP 317 360 219 204

Federal Budget Deficit -1330 -1185 -1351 -1167

% of GDP -6.6% -5.0% -6.7% -5.1%

Provinces Surplus -39 80 65 103

Overall Fiscal Deficit -1369 -1105 -1286 -1064

% of GDP -6.8% -4.7% 6.4% -4.6%

Financing 1369 1106 1286 1064

External 129 135 47 14

Domestic 1240 971 1238 1050

Nominal GDP 20091 23655 20091 22909

*: Provisional & Financing is based on SBP data which may revise


22/23

Public Debt

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12FY 13

(April) P

(In billions of Rs.)

Domestic Currency Debt 2601 3266 3852 4651 6016 7637 8,846

Foreign Currency Debt 2201 2778 3776 4260 4685 5030 4,823

Total Public Debt 4802 6044 7629 8911 10700 12667 13,669

(In percent of GDP)

Domestic Currency Debt 28.1 30.7 29.2 31.3 32.9 38.0 38.6

Foreign Currency Debt 23.8 26.1 28.6 28.7 25.6 25.0 21.1

Total Public Debt 52.0 56.8 57.8 59.9 58.5 63.0 59.7

(In percent of Total Debt)

Domestic Currency Debt 54.2 54.0 50.5 52.2 56.2 60.3 64.7

Foreign Currency Debt 45.8 46.0 49.5 47.8 43.8 39.7 35.3

Memo:Foreign Currency Debt (in

US $ Billion)36.4 40.7 46.4 49.8 54.5 53.2 49.0

Exchange Rate (Rs./US$,

E.O.P)60.4 68.3 81.4 85.5 86.0 94.5 98.5

GDP (in Rs. Billion) 9,240 10,638 13,200 14,867 18,285 20,091 22,909

P:Provisional


23/23

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