Economic Analysis
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Transcript of Economic Analysis
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Economic Analysis
CE 453 Lecture 37
Principal source, Wilbur Smith, et al “Guide to the Economic Evaluation of Highway
Projects,” Iowa DOT, 1993
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http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/tpp/offices/ote/Benefit_Cost/index.html
A systematic process for calculating and comparing benefits and costs of a project for two purposes: to determine if it is a sound investment (justification/feasibility) to see how it compares with alternate projects (ranking/priority
assignment) What You Will Find on This Website
How to define the problem that the project addresses and set up the analysis
How to measure and value benefits and costs of transportation projects Tools for calculating benefit-cost measures, dealing with uncertainty, and
estimating and valuing benefits and costs that do not have an established monetary value
Benefit-cost models and links to model sites Case studies of benefit-cost analyses for transportation projects How to interpret and present results References
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Outline
Economic basisGeneral procedureEstimating CostsEstimating BenefitsComparing costs and benefits
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Economic Basis
A project has economic value if it increases prosperity and incomes (is that all?)
This can happen in two ways Increased output requires more resources (e.g.,
attracting business) Increased efficiency (lower cost of production) Never measured but quite important – the
reorganization of production! Too much investment wastes resources, too little
stifles business and productivity Economic analysis doesn’t include everything
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General Procedure
Summary of chart on slide 3
1. ID project and options
2. Select base case
3. Traffic analysis and forecasts
4. Estimate capital and operations costs
5. Calculate travel efficiency cost savings
6. Calculate feasibility from user perspective
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Summary of chart on slide 3 (cont.)
7. Estimate economic development impacts
8. Calculate feasibility from economic development perspective
9. Conduct sensitivity analysis
10. Interpret results
11. Include economic analysis with non-economic factors in making decision
General Procedure
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Estimating Costs
Capital cost Engineer’s estimate is best (See summary of bid
prices and example plans) Can use unit cost from experience (see example) See list of typical elements, next page Do not include sunk costs Allow for a salvage (residual) value and discount it
(see next page)
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Operations and maintenance cost
Estimating Costs
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Cost Side: Preparing costs for B/C
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Summary: Estimating Costs
Capital costOperations and maintenance costPreparing costs (time value) for B/C
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Estimating Benefits
Analysis procedure
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Accident (Crash) cost savings Years lost + direct costs 1991 cost of fatality, $2,392,742 (Urban
Institute) biased? Willingness to pay (e.g., for a safety
improvement) Missouri and Kansas, $1.5M (1993), Iowa,
$800,000 (2002)
Estimating Benefits
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Travel time savingsFactors
Size of time increment saved (100% for over 11 minutes)
OccupancyPurposeWillingness to pay
Estimating Benefits
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Vehicle operating cost savingsFuel, oil, maintenance, etc.See Red book and many references
Estimating Benefits
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Economic Development Benefits
Development principles and types Corridor State Nation Some indicators
Economic activityValue addedIncomeEmploymentPopulation
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Economic Development Benefits
Four categories Construction impact Roadside expenditures Competitive reposition Non-business
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Economic Development Benefits
Economic modelsInput/output
(e.g., REMI)
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Summary: Estimating Benefits
Accident (Crash) cost savingsTravel time savings
Auto Truck
Vehicle operating cost savingsEconomic Development Benefits
Development principles and types Economic models
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Comparing costs and benefits
Life cycle approachChoose base yearInclude all present and future
costs/benefits
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Comparing costs and benefits
Discount future costs and benefitsNet present valueBenefit/cost ratioInternal rate of returnChoice of discount rate is tricky and
VERY important over long time periods
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Comparing costs and benefits
Decision rulesMaximize net present valueUse incremental rate of return to
compare projects (not just B/C compared to do-nothing)
Limited budgets affect choice of project (may not be overall best B/C or IROR)
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Comparing costs and benefits
Uncertainty, sensitivity and risksVary the following …
Discount rateCapital costs (20%)Traffic volumes (20%)Crash values (use FHWA?)Value of time (FHWA?)Higher posted speed
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Comparing costs and benefits
Future research neededValue of crashesAgriculture impactsLogistics impacts Industrial locationREMI sub-state regionsUrban methodsVOC methodsSuper 2 analysis
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Summary: Comparing costs and benefits
Life cycle approachDiscount future costs and benefitsDecision rulesUncertainty, sensitivity and risksFuture research needed
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ExampleSee HRGreen
Benefit/Cost Analysis Spreadsheet