Econometrics ProjectDatabase

Student: Monor Eduard AndreiNumar matricol: 31040701SL111341Specializare: Business Administration

Contents

1.Introduction2.Database3.Descriptive Statistics4.Single linear regression

5.Bivariate correlations

6.Partial correlations

7.Mean Comparison

8.Durbin-Watson test

9.Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

10.Heteroscedasticity white test

11.Conclusion

12.Bibliography

1.IntroductionDeath rateis a measure of the number ofdeaths(in general, or due to a specific cause) in a population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1000 individuals per year; thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of 1000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95% out of the total. It is distinct frommorbidity rate, which refers to the number of individuals in poor health during a given time period (theprevalence rate) or the number of newly appearing cases of the disease per unit of time (incidence rate). The term "mortality" is also sometimes inappropriately used to refer to the number of deaths among a set of diagnosed hospital cases for a disease or injury, rather than for the general population of a country or ethnic group. This disease mortality statistic is more precisely referred to as "case fatality rate". There are two death rates , In regard to thesuccessorfailureofmedicaltreatment orprocedures, one would distinguish:Theearly death rate, the total number of deaths in the early stages of an ongoing treatment, or in the period immediately following anacutetreatment.Thelate death rate, the total number of deaths in the late stages of an ongoing treatment, or a significant length of time after an acute treatment.Considerable progress has been made in improving health over the past 100 years in Australia, evidenced by substantial decreases in age-standardised mortality rates and increases in life expectancy. The following improvements have contributed to the decline in death rates:1. Improved understanding of environmental factors that affect health and the resulting improvements to public infrastructure ( clean water supply, sewerage, sanitation, housing, and improved food supply).2.Improved understanding of health risk and beneficial factors, and improvement in general education levels within the general population. These improvements have contributed to changes in behaviour within the general community, resulting in reductions in the incidence of some diseases. For example, understanding the association between respiratory diseases ( lung cancer and emphysema) and tobacco smoking has led to anti-smoking campaigns, while understanding exposure to the sun and risk of skin cancer has led to sun-safe campaigns. Also, work safety and road safety campaigns and improvements in transport infrastructure have reduced deaths due to injury.2.Medical and surgical advances ( antibiotics, immunisation, blood pressure lowering drugs, imaging equipment, surgical techniques) and improvements in access to medical and other health services.In my project I want to test how low can the mortality rate drop , I want to test the realation of the mortality rate with different death causes like : Heartdisease ; Car accidents ; Alzheimer ; Suicide and Cancer . I want to see how low the death rate can drop if we can decrease the number of death , occurred from one of the causes listed before , to a minimum . In this project I have chosen the U.S.A. death rate from 2007 as database , we will find the death rate for cancer , heart disease , Alzheimer , car accidents and suicides for 100000 people in a year for each state . 2.DatabaseStateDeath rate at 100000Heart diseaseCancerAccidentsAlzheimerSuicides

Alabama 1007.51 115.40 202.71 153.54 45.16 11.04

Alaska 783.73 153.54 171.60 178.62 57.20 13.05

Arizona 777.71 202.71 161.56 197.69 37.13 18.06

Arkansas 937.27 113.40 206.72 126.44 47.16 21.07

Californ 729.54 154.54 167.58 157.55 62.22 8.03

Colorado 761.66 178.62 158.55 197.69 39.14 19.07

Connecti 710.48 191.67 178.62 135.47 34.12 11.04

Delaware 835.92 214.75 198.69 125.44 42.15 21.07

Florida 767.68 153.54 176.62 185.65 61.21 17.06

Georgia 935.26 154.54 185.65 145.51 57.20 16.06

Hawaii 625.18 142.50 151.53 149.52 71.25 22.08

Idaho 777.71 176.62 173.61 174.61 39.14 9.03

Illinois 813.84 182.64 191.67 135.47 44.15 14.05

Indiana 889.10 119.42 199.70 199.70 73.26 12.04

Iowa 750.62 156.55 183.64 154.54 38.13 19.07

Kansas 812.84 195.68 185.65 152.53 45.16 7.02

Kentucky 964.36 187.65 218.76 178.62 48.17 14.05

Louisian 1010.52 141.49 209.73 134.47 51.18 19.07

Maine 818.86 175.61 204.71 139.49 67.23 16.06

Maryland 820.86 161.56 191.67 195.68 35.12 23.08

Massachu 747.61 178.62 185.65 197.69 51.18 8.03

Michigan 825.88 143.50 192.67 167.58 55.19 15.05

Minnesot 699.44 165.58 168.59 153.54 71.25 13.05

Mississi 1025.58 189.66 206.72 135.47 77.27 17.06

Missouri 887.09 169.59 197.69 198.69 61.21 14.05

Montana 806.81 165.58 184.64 155.54 42.15 19.07

Nebraska 767.68 197.69 175.61 137.48 71.25 13.05

Nevada 900.14 206.72 189.66 191.67 52.18 8.03

New Hamp 753.63 168.59 186.65 167.58 55.19 11.04

New Jers 764.67 151.53 184.64 175.61 35.12 17.06

New Mexi 803.80 176.62 162.57 142.50 41.14 12.04

New York 740.58 157.55 171.60 127.44 42.15 15.05

North Ca 891.11 189.66 191.67 148.52 51.18 18.06

North Da 725.53 196.69 172.60 159.56 55.19 15.05

Ohio 865.02 167.58 197.69 135.47 57.20 23.08

Oklahoma 977.41 155.54 196.69 129.45 65.23 9.03

Oregon 790.76 198.69 186.65 165.58 77.27 11.04

Pennsylv 824.88 199.70 195.68 154.54 62.22 8.03

Rhode Is 755.64 191.67 186.65 185.65 64.22 17.06

South Ca 919.21 168.59 196.69 145.51 58.20 12.04

South Da 769.68 131.46 181.63 144.50 71.25 21.07

Tennesse 974.40 119.42 209.73 171.60 64.22 15.05

Texas 848.96 177.62 176.62 129.45 61.21 21.07

Utah 766.67 172.60 136.48 128.45 59.21 18.06

Vermont 743.59 149.52 174.61 138.48 24.08 17.06

Virginia 825.88 136.48 188.66 152.53 35.12 16.06

Washingt 754.63 191.67 179.63 129.45 49.17 12.04

Washingt 985.44 148.52 194.68 114.40 42.15 8.03

West Vir 977.41 171.60 208.73 165.58 58.20 15.05

Wisconsi 760.65 154.54 183.64 153.54 51.18 7.02

Wyoming 816.85 154.54 169.59 145.51 68.24 12.04

3.Descriptive statistics

4.Single liniar regressionDeath rate Heart disease

R=0.220 The link between the Death rate and the number of people that die from hearth disease is not so powerfull

R=R2=0.0485

The value R2=0.0485 indicates the fact that 4.85% from the variation of the dependent value , the death rate , its not influenced very much by the independent value , the number of people who die from heart disease

Yxi=967.565-0.836xi

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Death rate Cancer

R=0.753

The link between death rate and the number of people that die from cancer is powerfull

Yxi=22.609+4.345xi

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Death rate Accidents

R=0.132

The link between death rate and the number of people that die from accidents is week

Yxi=911.041+0.532xi

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Death rate Alzheimer

R=0.103

The link between death rate and the number of people that die from Alzheimer is week

Yxi=787.665+0.754xi

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Death rate Suicides

R=0.037The link between death rate and the number of people that die from suicide is week

Yxi=839.172+0.761xi

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5.Bivariate correlations

6.Partial correlations

7.Mean ComparisonDeath rate Heart diseaseDeath rate - Cancer

Death rate - Accidents

Death rate - Alzheimer

Death rate - Suicides

8.Durbin-Watson test .

9.Kolmogorov-smirnov test Death rate - Heart disease

Death rate - Cancer

Death rate - Accidents

Death rate - Alzheimer

Death rate Suicides

10.Heteroscedasticity white test____

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11.Conclusion

I would like to say that the mortality rate can be decreased , if we could reduce the number of death occurred from the causes presented in this project to a minimum , but the difference wouldnt be very big .Even though the decrease of the death rate can happen it would be very difficult in our time , because diseases sprea much faster and our bodies are degrading a lot because of the food we eat , the environment we live in is also harmfull , accidents can always happen and many of them will end up with somebody dying .In a perfect society the death rate can be decreased , but in order to achieve that we have a lot of work ahead . Inspite of all the posibilites that the nowadays society offers our life is in most of the times in our own hands , we can pretty much decide when we will die by being carefull what we feed ourselves with , by changing the environment when we decide to live in , by driving safely and by taking the proper medication to sustain our health .To sum up , I can say that we can control the death rate , but to do that would require us to change a lot of nowdays society aspects , to take radical measures against: pollution , unhealthy food , car accidents , the lack of proper equipement and medication in hospitals , povertry and many more aspects that are encountered at every step in the society we live in , which would be almost imposible to achieve in the foresseable future .

12.Bibliografy

1.http://www.aihw.gov.au/why-have-death-rates-declined/2.http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_4_reasons_for_a_decrease_in_Death_Rate3.http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr 4.http://www.ibm.com/support/docview.wss?uid=swg214767485.http://www.spssx-discussion.1045642.n5.nabble.com/Heteroscedasticity-Test-td1074937.html6.http://www.stat.tamu.edu/spss.php7.http://www.ucdenver.edu/academics/colleges/nursing/documents/pdf/survivalhowto.pdf8.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_death_rate9.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate