RICS UK Economy and Property Market Chart Book - December 2015
Econ Chart Book December 2016
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Transcript of Econ Chart Book December 2016
Consumer Economic TrendsDecember 2016 Chartbook
Consumer Economic Trends – November 2016
12/4/16 ConsumerEconomicsChartbook- CKMcKay 2
Summary• TheU.S.economygrewarevised3.2%in2Q,thestrongestgainintwoyears.
Consumerspendingwasrevisedupwardsduetoejumpindurables.Businessinvestmentremainedweekoverallwithanincreaseinstructuresoffsetbyadeclineinequipmentspending.Uncertaintyovertheelectionandworldaffairsingeneralappearstoberestrainingbusinessinvestmentwhichcoulddampenfuturegrowth
• DuringOctoberdisposableincomewasup0.6%,butaverageweeklyearningsdeclined0.1%inNovember
• Consumerspendingwasup0.3%inOctoberandretailsalesgrew0.8%.Thedragfromgasolinestationsaleswasgreatlydiminished
• Novemberjobgainsweredecentat178,000;moderatingjobsgrowthhasreducethetwelvemonthaverageto188Kfrom230ayearago.Thebroaderemploymentratioshavefailedtoimproveduring‘16
• Consumerrevolvingdebtgrowthhashoverednear6%sinceMarch,andthedebttoincomeratioremainedstableandbelow7%
• Post-electionconsumersentimentjumped6.5pointsto93.8.Asconsumersanticipateimprovedpersonalfinancesandgeneraleconomicconditions
• Smallbusinessoptimismedgedup0.8inOctober,butconcernsoverelectionacrimonydrovetheindex’suncertaintycomponenttoa42yearhigh
ListofCharts1. Disposableincome2. Consumerspending3. Retailsales4. Ecommercesales5. Jobsgrowthvs.UIclaims6. Employmentratios7. Wagegrowthvs.inflation8. Revolvingcredit9. Purchasevolume10. Consumersentiment11. Smallbusinessoptimism
Annual disposable personal income growth increased 0.3 ppt to 4.1% in October. The savings rate ticked up to 6.0%. For the last several months income growth, taxes and savings have been fairly stable
12/4/16 ConsumerEconomicsChartbook- CKMcKay 3
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
21.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Personal Income and Savings
Disposable Personal Income Y/Y Growth% Personal Savings Rate % Tax Burden % Personal Income (right scale)
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
Return
Consumer advanced in October led by a strong jump in durable goods purchases. Also increased gasoline spending nearly eliminating the two year drag energy has had on overall consumer spending
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-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Nominal Consumer Spending Growth Y/Y%
Total Consumer Spending
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Services
Nondurable Goods ex. Energy
Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis
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Retail sales grew 0.8% in October and year-over-year growth increased 4.2%, the highest rate since Nov. ‘14, as Q4 consumer spending got off to a good start. Gasoline station sales increased 2.2% during Oct., Y/Y gas station sales were up 0.9% the the first gain since May ‘14
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-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Retail Sales Growth Y/Y%
Total Retail Sales Excluding Autos Ex. Autos & Gasoline Stations Gasoline Stations (right scale)
Source:CensusBureau
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During the last four quarters e-commerce contributed over 56% of retail sales growth… falling gasoline sales has accelerated e-commerce’s growth impact
12/4/16 ConsumerEconomicsChartbook- CKMcKay 6
-45%
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
E-Commerce Sales Growth Y/Y%Note: This chart is updated quarterly
Total Retail Sales E-commerce Total ex. E-commerce E-commerce Overall Growth Contribution 4Q Average (right scale)
Source:CensusBureau
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Jobs gains continued at a more moderate pace with 178K reported for November and prior month revisions a negative 2K. The three month average job gains held steady at 176K. The 12 month average job gains were 188K, the lowest since February ‘14. Initial claims remain historically low
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250 280 310 340 370 400 430 460 490 520 550 580 610 640 670 700 -900
-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500600
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Monthly Employment Gains vs. Unemployment Claims (Thousands)
Monthly Payroll Employment Gains 4 Week Moving Average Unemployment Claims (right scale inverted)
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
Return
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6%, the lowest level since August ‘07. However, the drop was driven more by a labor force decline than an increase in employment. The broader employment ratios made little progress as ’16 has been unable to sustain the positive trends seen during ’14 - ’15
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1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Employment Ratios
Labor Force Participation Rate Employment-Population Ratio Unemployment Rate (right scale)
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
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Wage growth fell 0.1% in November. Y/Y growth decreased to 2.5%, giving up the gains seen over the last two months. Y/Y inflation was the highest in two years
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-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Wage Growth vs. Inflation
Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y Growth CPI Y/Y % Change Core CPI Y/Y % Change
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
Return
The revolving credit growth rate has been stable at ~6% since March. As a percentage of disposable income, revolving credit has remain stable at ~2ppt below its pre-recession level
12/4/16 ConsumerEconomicsChartbook- CKMcKay 10
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$800
$825
$850
$875
$900
$925
$950
$975
$1,000
$1,025
$1,050
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Consumer Revolving Credit Consumer Revolving Credit Outstanding
Consumer Revolving Credit Y/Y% Growth (right scale)
Consumer Revolving Credit as a % of Disposible Personal Income (right scale)
Source:FederalReserve,BureauofEconomicAnalysis
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Billions
Q3 payment card purchase volume year-over-year growth slid 1.9ppt to 6.0%
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-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Network Payment Card Purchase Volume Growth Y/Y%
Source:AXP,DFS,MA,VCompanyReports
Return
The Consumer Sentiment index dipped to 93.8 post-election as consumer optimism for their financial situation and the economy rose on Trump’s victory
12/4/16 ConsumerEconomicsChartbook- CKMcKay 12
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Y/Y% Change (right scale)
Source:UniversityofMichigan
Return
Small business optimism index gained 0.8 in October, but the uncertainty component hit a 42 year high on election concerns. The trailing six month moving average edged up to 94.4; still below the index's long run average of 98
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80
85
90
95
100
105
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Small Business Optimism
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6 Month Moving Average
Source:NationalFederationofIndependentBusiness
Return