ECON 492 Week 3 1

ECON 492: Comparative Financial Crises

Week 326 January 2011David Longworth

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ECON 492 Week 3 2

Where does topic fit in?

(Prediction)

Transmission

Policy ResponsePrevention

Causes

ECON 492 Week 3 3

What the 2-Page Proposal Should Have

1. Question(s) to be answered or Hypothesis to be tested– Why is the question or hypothesis interesting?

2. Literature to be read– And any models to be referred to

3. Data sources and sources for facts to be used– Or data and facts that need to be found

4. Outline of economic analysis to be used to answer the question(s) or to test the hypothesis:– Models, statistical analysis, graphs

5. Outline of story suggested by economic analysis

ECON 492 Week 3 4

Data and Graphs

• Real versus nominal• Seasonally adjusted versus raw• Ratios versus a trending variable• Rates of change versus levels• Logarithms versus levels

There is no “right” answer for all circumstances, but actively think about the above.

ECON 492 Week 3 5

Reminder: Next Week

• Two-page outline (proposal) due in class– Paper copy to be given to instructor– 5-8 minute presentation given in class• Can use PowerPoint if you wish

• Arrange to see instructor for 10 minutes on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning– There will be a sign-up sheet in class next week

ECON 492 Week 3 6

Suggestion for this week

• See the instructor to get detailed feedback on your choice of topic, as well as:– Discussing references and models– Discussing sources for data and facts