ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor...

30
ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Ag¨ uero. Fall 2008. Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 1

Transcript of ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor...

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ECON 260Theories of Economic Development.

Instructor: Jorge Aguero.

Fall 2008.

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 1

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General information

Time and location: TR 2:10 - 3:30 p.m. SPR 3123

Office hours: T 10am-11am, W 11am-12pm (4108 Sproul Hall)

Phone: 951.827.4108.

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: http://faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 2

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Requirements and grading

Two research ideas (due Oct. 28 and Nov. 25) 15% each.

Two referee reports (due Oct. 14 and Nov. 11) 15% each.

One presentation (to be scheduled later) 10%.

One take-home final (December 9, 10 a.m.) 30%.

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 3

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Reports

• The referee report is a critical (but constructive) evaluation ofan academic paper.

• The list of papers is available on the course website.

• Choose two out of three papers.

• The research ideas can cover any topic related in appliedeconomics.

• Must have: goal and motivation in detail, (if possible) themodel, data and methodology.

• Limit your writings to five pages per piece.

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 4

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Textbooks

• Aghion, P. and S. Durlauf, eds. (2005) Handbook of EconomicGrowth, Vol. 1A. North Holland [AD, HD75.5 .H35 2005,available at Science Direct].

• Banerjee, A., R. Benabou, and D. Mookherjee (2006)Understanding Poverty. Oxford University Press. [BBM,HC79.P6 U534 2006]

• Barro, R. and X. Sala-i-Martin (2004) Economic Growth.Second edition. MIT Press. [BSM]

• Rodrik, D. editor (2003) In Search of Prosperity: AnalyticNarratives on Economic Growth Princeton University Press.[HD73 .I52 2003]

• D. Mookherjee and D. Ray (2001) Readings in the Theory ofEconomic Development. Blackwell Pubs. [HD75 .R423 2001].

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 5

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Economic growth: measurement

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 6

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AGO

ALB

ARE

ARG

ARM

ATG

AUSAUT

AZE

BDI

BEL

BENBFA

BGD

BGR

BHR BHS

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BOL

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MAR

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46

810

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DP

per

cap

ita, P

PP

(co

nsta

nt 2

000

inte

rnat

iona

l $)

4 6 8 10 12GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

Source: WDI

Relation between GDP percapita with PPP and US$: 2002

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 7

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AGO

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020

4060

80A

gric

ultu

re, v

alue

add

ed (

% o

f GD

P)

6 7 8 9 10 11GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)

Source: WDI

GDP per capita and agriculture: 2002

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 8

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AGO

ALB

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020

4060

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dust

ry, v

alue

add

ed (

% o

f GD

P)

6 7 8 9 10 11GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)

Source: WDI

GDP per capita and industry: 2002

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 9

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AGOALB

ARE

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ARM

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AUT

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BEN

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78

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rgy

use

(kg

of o

il eq

uiva

lent

per

cap

ita)

6 7 8 9 10 11GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)

Source: WDI

GDP per capita and energy consumption: 2002

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 10

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AGO

ALB

ARE

ARG

ARM

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AUSAUT

AZE

BDI

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BEN

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4050

6070

80Li

fe e

xpec

tanc

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birt

h, to

tal (

year

s)

6 7 8 9 10 11GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)

Source: WDI

GDP per capita and life expectancy: 2002

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 11

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AGO

ALBARG

ARMAZE

BDI

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CYP

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2040

6080

100

Lite

racy

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dult

tota

l (%

of p

eopl

e ag

es 1

5 an

d ab

ove)

6 7 8 9 10 11GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)

Source: WDI

GDP per capita and literacy: 2004

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 12

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AGO

ALB

ARE

ARG

ARM

ATG

AUS

AUT

AZE

BDI

BEL

BEN

BFA

BGD

BGR

BHR

BHS

BIH

BLR

BLZ

BOL

BRA

BWA

CAF

CAN

CHE

CHL

CHN

CIV

CMR

COG

COL

COM

CPV

CRI

CYP

CZEDEU

DJI

DMA

DNK

DOM

DZA

EAP

ECAECU

EGY

EMU

ERI

ESP

EST

ETH

FIN

FJI

FRA

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GBR

GEO

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GIN

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MIC

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MLI

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MOZ

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MWI

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NAM

NER

NGA

NIC

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NPL

NZL

OEC

OMN

PAK

PAN

PER

PHL

PNG

POL

PRTPRYROM

RUS

RWA

SAS

SAU

SDN

SEN

SGP

SLB

SLE

SLV

SSA

SVK

SVN

SWE

SWZ

SYCSYR

TCD

TGO

THA

TJKTON

TTO

TUNTUR

TZA

UGA

UKR

UMC

URY

USA

UZB

VCT

VEN

VNMVUT

WLD

WSM

YEM

ZAF

ZAR

ZMB ZWE

020

4060

8010

0U

rban

pop

ulat

ion

(% o

f tot

al)

6 7 8 9 10 11GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2000 international $)

Source: WDI

GDP per capita and urban population: 2002

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 13

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NigerSierra Leone Burkina FasoMali ChadGuinea−BissauCentral African RepublicEthiopiaBurundi MozambiqueCongo, Dem. Rep. of theZambiaMalawiTanzania, U. Rep. of Côte d’IvoireBeninEritrea AngolaRwandaNigeria Senegal GuineaGambiaKenya HaitiMauritaniaYemen DjiboutiCameroonLesotho SwazilandMadagascar ZimbabweUgandaTogoCongo SudanBangladeshGhanaPapua New GuineaNepal PakistanBhutanLao People’s Dem. Rep.Comoros BotswanaCambodiaSolomon Islands IndiaSão Tomé and Principe NamibiaMorocco GabonTajikistan Equatorial GuineaSouth AfricaVanuatu EgyptGuatemalaHondurasMoldova, Rep. ofMongolia BoliviaNicaraguaUzbekistan IndonesiaKyrgyzstan Viet Nam GuyanaCape VerdeSyrian Arab RepublicEl Salvador AlgeriaAzerbaijanGeorgia Iran, Islamic Rep. ofTurkmenistanJamaica Dominican RepublicTurkeySri Lanka Fiji TunisiaBelizeJordanParaguayChinaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesPhilippinesEcuador LebanonArmenia KazakhstanPeruUkraineVenezuela Saudi ArabiaSaint LuciaSamoa (Western) ThailandAlbania OmanDominica ColombiaBosnia and HerzegovinaBelarus Grenada MauritiusBrazilRomaniaRussian FederationMalaysiaMacedonia, TFYRAntigua and BarbudaTrinidad and TobagoPanamaBulgariaTonga MexicoSeychelles BahamasSaint Kitts and NevisLatviaCosta RicaUruguay Croatia KuwaitBahrainUnited Arab EmiratesSlovakia QatarLithuaniaEstoniaChilePolandHungaryArgentina Brunei DarussalamMaltaCzech RepublicBarbadosCyprusKorea, Rep. ofSloveniaPortugal SingaporeGreeceIsraelHong Kong, China (SAR)Spain GermanyNew ZealandItaly AustriaFranceUnited KingdomFinland DenmarkNetherlandsJapanUnited StatesBelgium IrelandSwitzerlandLuxembourgCanadaSweden AustraliaIcelandNorway

050

100

150

200

Ran

k by

hum

an d

evel

opm

ent i

ndex

0 50 100 150 200Rank by GDP per capita, PPP (constant US$)

Source: Human development report 2005

Comparing rankings by GDP per capita and HDI: 2003

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 14

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Economic growth: facts

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 15

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Income disparities (Durlauf et. al 2005)Table 1: International Disparities in GDP per Worker

Country Population(m, 2000) R1960 R2000

USA 275 1 1

United Kingdom 60 .69 .69

Argentina 37 .62 .40

France 60 .60 .76

Italy 58 .55 .84

South Africa 43 .47 .34

Mexico 97 .44 .38

Spain 40 .40 .68

Iran 64 .30 .30

Colombia 42 .27 .18

Japan 127 .25 .60

Brazil 170 .24 .30

Turkey 67 .17 .24

Philippines 76 .17 .13

Egypt 64 .17 .21

Korea, Republic of 47 .15 .57

Bangladesh 131 .10 .10

Nigeria 127 .08 .02

Indonesia 210 .08 .14

Thailand 61 .07 .20

Pakistan 138 .07 .11

India 1016 .06 .10

China 1259 .04 .10

Ethiopia 64 .04 .02

Mean .29 .35

Median .21 .27

Notes:

- R is GDP per worker as a fraction of that in the USA.

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 16

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Figure 2: Output Per Worker: 1960 versus 2000

TWN

BWA

HKG

KOR

SGP

THA

CYPJPN

CHN

ROM

MUSMYS

PRT

IDN

ESP

PAK

GRC

COG

AUTITA

IND

SYR

FIN

GABTUR

ISR

BEL

DOM

FRA

EGY

LSO

BRA

NOR

MAR

LKA

PAN

MWI

NPL

BGD

IRN

CHL

GBR

USA

DNK

TTO

NLDSWE

AUS

GNB

CAN

MEX

ZWE

JOR

ECU

GTM

UGA

NAM

CIV

PHL

BFA

FJI

GMB

PNG

ZAF

GUY

TZA

URY

PRY

KENGHA

COL

ARG

ETH

SLVCRI

BEN

GINHND

CMR

BDI

TGO

JAM

RWA

BOL

PER

MRT

SEN

TCD

MOZMDG

ZMB

MLI

VEN

NER

NGA

NIC

CAFAGO

ZAR

.2.4

.6.8

1Log G

DP

per

work

er

rela

tive t

o U

SA

, 2000

.2 .4 .6 .8 1Log GDP per worker relative to USA, 1960

Relative GDP per worker

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 17

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Economic miracles: 1960-2000 (Durlauf et. al 2005)

Country Growth 1960-2000 Factor increase

Taiwan 6.25 11.3

Botswana 6.07 10.6

Hong Kong 5.67 9.09

Korea, Republic of 5.41 8.24

Singapore 5.09 7.29

Thailand 4.50 5.83

Cyprus 4.30 5.39

Japan 4.13 5.04

Ireland 4.10 5.00

China 3.99 4.77

Romania 3.91 4.63

Mauritius 3.88 4.58

Malaysia 3.82 4.48

Portugal 3.48 3.93

Indonesia 3.34 3.72

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 18

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Economic disasters: 1960-2000 (Durlauf et. al 2005)

Country Growth 1960-2000 Ratio

Peru 0.00 1.00

Mauritania -0.11 0.96

Senegal -0.26 0.90

Chad -0.43 0.84

Mozambique -0.50 0.82

Madagascar -0.60 0.79

Zambia -0.61 0.78

Mali -0.77 0.74

Venezuela -0.88 0.70

Niger -1.03 0.66

Nigeria -1.21 0.62

Nicaragua -1.30 0.59

Central African Republic -1.56 0.53

Angola -2.04 0.44

Congo, Democratic Rep. -4.00 0.20

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 19

Page 20: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Unpredictable growth?: 1960-2000 (Durlauf et. al 2005)

TWN

BWA

HKG

KOR

SGP

THACYP

JPN

IRL

CHN

ROM

MUS

MYS

PRTIDN

ESP

PAK

GRC

COG

AUTITA

IND

SYR

FIN

GAB

TURISRBEL

DOM

FRA

EGY

LSO

BRA

NOR

MAR

LKA

PAN

MWI

NPL

BGD

IRN

CHLGBRUSADNK

TTO

NLDSWE

AUS

GNB

CAN

MEX

ZWE

JOR

ECU

GTM

UGA

NAM

CIV

PHL

BFA

FJIGMB

PNGZAF

GUY

CHE

TZA

URY

PRY

KENGHACOL

ARG

ETHSLV

CRI

BENGIN

NZL

HNDCMR

BDITGO

JAM

RWA

BOL

PER

MRT

SEN

TCD

MOZ

MDG

ZMBMLIVEN

NER

NGA

NICCAF

AGO

42

02

46

8G

row

th,

1980

2000

4 2 0 2 4 6 8Growth, 1960 1980

Unpredictable growth?

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 20

Page 21: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Summary: growth facts

• Between 1960-2000 the relative distribution of world incomeseems stable.

• The rich countries remain rich and the poor remain poor.

• However, there are miracles and disasters.

• Is this evidence against “poverty traps”?

• Is growth predictable?

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 21

Page 22: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Economic growth: explanations

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 22

Page 23: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

GDPPPP 1995$465-1,999$2,000-4,999$5,000-9,999$10,000-15,999$16,000-44,000No data

Tropic of Capricorn

Tropic of Cancer

Note: GDPPPP= 1995Gross Domestic Product perperson in purchasing power parity internationaldollars.

Figure 1. Income per person, 1995 (with sub-national data for 19 countries)

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 23

Page 24: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Malaria risk - 1946, 1966, 1994

1946

1966

High risk of Malaria1994

Tropic of Cancer

Tropic of Capricorn

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 24

Page 25: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Latitude and income (Acemoglu et. al)

.

Log G

DP

per

capita, P

PP

, in

1995

Latitude0 .2 .4 .6 .8

6

8

10

AFG

DZA

AGO

ARG

ARM

AUSAUT

AZE

BHSBHR

BGD

BRB

BLR

BEL

BLZ

BEN

BTNBOL

BIH

BWABRABGR

BFA

BDI

CMR

CAN

CPVCAF

TCD

CHL

CHN

COL

COM

ZAR

COG

CRI

CIV

HRV

CZE

DNK

DJI

DMA

DOM

ECU

EGYSLV

EST

ETH

FJI

FINFRA

GAB

GMB

GEO

DEU

GHA

GRC

GRD GTM

GIN

GNB

GUY

HTI

HND

HKG

HUN

ISL

IND

IDN

IRN

IRQ

IRL

ISR

ITA

JAM

JPN

JOR

KAZ

KEN

KORKWT

LVA

LSO

LBR

LBYLTU

LUX

MDGMWI

MYS

MLI

MLT

MRT

MUSMEX

MDA

MAR

MOZ

MMR

NAM

NPL

NLD

NZL

NIC

NERNGA

NOR

OMN

PAK

PAN

PNG

PRYPERPHL

POL

PRT

QAT

ROM

RUS

RWA

STP

SAU

SEN

SLE

SGP

SVKSVN

SOM

ZAF

ESP

LKA

KNA

LCA

VCT

SDN

SWZ

SWE

CHE

SYR

TJK

TZA

THA

TGO

TTO

TUN TUR

TKM

UGA

GBR

UKR

ARE

URY

USA

UZB

VEN

VNM

YEM

YUG

ZMB

ZWE

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 25

Page 26: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Pritchett (1997)

• How did the world income distribution evolved since 1870?

• How did the rich countries growth?

• How did the poor countries growth?

• Is evidence presented by Pritchett consistent with thegeography hypothesis?

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 26

Page 27: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Expropriation and income (Acemoglu et. al)

12

.

Log G

DP

per

capita, P

PP

, in

1995

Avg. Protection Against Risk of Expropriation, 1985-954 6 8 10

6

8

10

AGO

ARE

ARG

AUSAUTBEL

BFA BGD

BGR

BHR

BHS

BOL

BRABWA

CANCHE

CHL

CHN

CIVCMRCOG

COLCRI

CZE

DNK

DOM DZAECU

EGY

ESP

ETH

FINFRA

GAB

GBR

GHAGIN

GMB

GRC

GTM

GUY

HKG

HND

HTI

HUN

IDN

IND

IRL

IRN

ISL

ISRITA

JAMJOR

JPN

KEN

KOR

KWT

LKA

LUX

MAR

MDG

MEX

MLI

MLT

MNG

MOZ MWI

MYS

NERNGA

NIC

NLDNOR

NZL

OMN

PAK

PAN

PER

PHL

POL

PRT

PRY

QAT

ROM RUS

SAU

SDNSEN

SGP

SLE

SLVSUR

SWE

SYR

TGO

THATTO

TUN

TUR

TZA

UGA

URY

USA

VEN

VNM

YEM

ZAF

ZAR ZMB

ZWE

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 27

Page 28: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Corruption and income (Acemoglu et. al)

.

Lo

g G

DP

pe

r ca

pita

, P

PP

, in

19

95

Control of Corruption0 .5 1

6

8

10

ARG

ARM

AUSAUTBEL

BFA

BGR

BOL

BRA

CANCHE

CHL

CHN

COL

CZE

DEUDNK

DOMECU

EGY

ESP

FINFRA

GBR

GEO GHA

GRC

HKG

HRV

HUN

IDN

IND

IRLISRITA

JAM JOR

JPN

KAZ

KEN

KOR

LBN

LKA

LTULVA

MAR

MDG

MEX

MLIMOZ MWI

MYS

NGA

NLDNOR

NZL

PAK

PAN

PER

PHL

POL

PRT

ROMRUS

SEN

SGP

SVK

SVN

SWE

THA

TUN

TUR

TZA

UGA

UKR

URY

USA

VEN

VNM

ZAF

ZMB

ZWE

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 28

Page 29: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Reversal of fortune 1 (Acemoglu et. al)

.

GD

P p

er

capita, P

PP

, in

1995

Urbanization in 15000 5 10 15 20

7

8

9

10

ARG

AUS

BGD

BLZ

BOL

BRA

CAN

CHL

COL CRI

DOM DZAECU

EGY

GTM

GUY

HKG

HND

HTI

IDN

IND

JAM

LAO

LKA

MAR

MEXMYS

NIC

NZL

PAK

PAN

PER

PHLPRY

SGP

SLV

TUN

URY

USA

VEN

VNM

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 29

Page 30: ECON 260 Theories of Economic Development. Instructor ...faculty.ucr.edu/~jorgea/econ260/intro.pdf · Theories of Economic Development. Instructor: Jorge Aguero.˜ ... D. editor (2003)

Reversal of fortune 2 (Acemoglu et. al)

.

GD

P p

er

capita, P

PP

, in

1995

Log Population Density in 1500-5 0 5

6

7

8

9

10

AGO

ARG

AUS

BDI

BEN

BFA BGD

BHS

BLZ

BOL

BRA

BRB

BWA

CAF

CAN

CHL

CIVCMRCOG

COL

COM

CPV

CRI

DMADOM DZAECU

EGY

ERI

GAB

GHAGIN

GMB

GRDGTM

GUY

HKG

HND

HTI

IDN

IND

JAM

KEN

KNA

LAO

LCA

LKA

LSO

MAR

MDG

MEX

MLIMOZ

MRT

MWI

MYS

NAM

NERNGA

NIC

NPL

NZL

PAK

PAN

PER

PHLPRY

RWA

SDNSEN

SGP

SLE

SLVSUR

SWZ

TCD

TGO

TTO

TUN

TZA

UGA

URY

USA

VCT

VEN

VNM

ZAF

ZARZMB

ZWE

Lecture 1 September 29, 2008 30