Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

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Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels Brian Helmuth, David Wethey, Venkat Lakshmi, Jerry Hilbish, Allison Smith, Lauren Szathmary, Christel Purvis University of South Carolina, Columbia

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Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels. Brian Helmuth, David Wethey, Venkat Lakshmi, Jerry Hilbish, Allison Smith, Lauren Szathmary, Christel Purvis University of South Carolina, Columbia. Intertidal zone is an interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Page 1: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Brian Helmuth, David Wethey, Venkat Lakshmi, Jerry Hilbish, Allison Smith, Lauren Szathmary,

Christel Purvis

University of South Carolina, Columbia

Page 2: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Intertidal zone is an interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems

Page 3: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Recent worldwide observations of intertidal mortality linked to climate

New Zealand

OregonWashington

Dead mussels

Necrotic tissue

Bleached algae

Photo: Laura Petes

Page 4: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Potential causes of mortality, range shifts, and loss of biodiversity

• Direct physiological effects (acute and chronic)– Changes in aerial body temperature– Changes in water temperature

• Indirect effects– Competition– Predation

• Factors not related to climate (e.g., anthropogenic influences)

Page 5: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Ecological niche modeling

• Fundamental vs. realized niche space– Not all species range edges are set by climate– Should not expect to see impacts of climate change

everywhere– Climate change may impact organisms in the middle

of their ranges

• Organism performance changes spatially and temporally include physiological data in niche modeling

Page 6: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Climate and Remote Sensing Data

Theoretical Models of Organism Body Temperature

Make Hypotheses

Experimentally Test Hypotheses in the Field and Laboratory

Determine Realized Niche Space

Physiological and Ecological Data

Page 7: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Goals

• How do we make predictions about geographic range boundaries?– Poleward migrations– Mosaic patterns

• Where and when do we look for the current and future effects of climate change on ecological patterns?– Biodiversity– Abundance– Mortality

• How do we mitigate these effects?

Page 8: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Two organisms exposed to identical microclimates can experience different body temperatures

Seastar at ~12°C

Mussel at ~21°C

See details on Szathmary et al. poster…

Page 9: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Shady Cove

Cattle Point

Tatoosh

Boiler Bay

Strawberry Hill

Monterey

Piedras BlancasCambria

Lompoc LandingJalamaAlegria

Boat House

Coal Oil Pt

GMT 2003 Jul 25 02:13:59

OMC - Martin Weinelt

-125

-125

-120

-120

-115

-115

-110

-110

-105

-105

-100

-100

30 30

35 35

40 40

45 45

50 50

0 200 400

km

0 10 20 30 40 50

Shady Cove

Cattle Point

Tatoosh Island

Boiler Bay Exposed

Boiler Bay Protected

Strawberry Hill Exp.

Strawberry Hill Prot.

Monterey Exposed

Monterey Protected

Piedras Blancas

Cambria

Lompoc

Jalama

Alegria

Boat House-Exposed

Boat House-Protected

Coal Oil Point

Yearly MaximumPeak Yearly Avg Daily Max.

Temperature (°C)

2002 data

(Poleward)

(Equatorial)

Thermal mosaic over a large geographic range

(Helmuth et al. 2006 Ecol Monogr)0 10 20 30 40 50

Shady Cove

Cattle Point

Tatoosh Island

Boiler Bay Exposed

Boiler Bay Protected

Strawberry Hill Exp.

Strawberry Hill Prot.

Monterey Exposed

Monterey Protected

Piedras Blancas

Cambria

Lompoc

Jalama

Alegria

Boat House-Exposed

Boat House-Protected

Coal Oil Point

Yearly MaximumPeak Yearly Avg Daily Max.

Temperature (°C)

2002 data

(Poleward)

(Equatorial)

Page 10: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Topex-Poseidon R/S Data for Tidal Height

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Complex patterns are likely to occur worldwide due to tidal regimes

Page 11: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

How do we measure animal temperature over large scales in physiologically meaningful ways?

Avg MaxMussel Temp

Avg MODISTemp

Avg MusselTemp

CriticalPhysiological

Temp

See Purvis poster for more details…

Page 12: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Quantifying effects of climate over a cascade of scales

Weather station data

In situ animal temperature data

Remote sensing data

http://uae2.gsfc.nasa.gov/terra_sat.gif

High spatial resolutionMore field intensiveDirectly relevant to animals

Wide spatial coverageBroad temporal coverageNoninvasive

Page 13: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Qstored

Tbody

Tground

Tair

QQsolasola

rr

QQrad, skyrad, sky

QQrad, groundrad, ground

Qconduction

QQconvectionconvection

QQevaporationevaporation

WindWind

Thermal engineering model of animal temp.(“Inside out/Outside in”)

m, cp

Twater

Page 14: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Variable NameData Source (Satellite

Platform)[Agency]

Time PeriodSpatial

ResolutionTemporal

Resolution

Air Temperature

Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present

200 km (global)32 km (NARR)

6 hour avg3 hour avg

LSTMODIS (Aqua, Terra)

[NASA]

Aqua: Aug 2002-present

Terra: Feb 2000-present

1 km, 5 kmDaily, 8-day

average

SSTMODIS (Aqua, Terra)

[NASA]

Aqua: Aug 2002-present

Terra: Feb 2000-present

4.89 km, 9 km Daily

Solar Radiation Pinker (GOES) 1996-present 0.5 deg hourly

Solar Radiation Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present

200 km (global)32 km (NARR)

6 hour avg3 hour avg

Wave Height, Wind Speed

TOPEX/POSEIDON (Jason-1)[NASA]

1992-present6 km, 0.5 deg, 1

deg5-day, 10-day

Wind Speed Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present

200 km (global)32 km (NARR)

6 hour avg3 hour avg

Relative Humidity

Reanalysis [NCEP/NARR]1948-present1979-present

200 km (global)32 km (NARR)

6 hour avg3 hour avg

NASA/NOAA data used as inputs to thermal engineering models

NCEP= National Centers for Environmental Prediction; NARR = North American Regional Reanalysis;

incorporates NASA R/S Data and NOAA ground-based data as part of reanalysis

Page 15: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Model Performance vs. Field Data

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

Difference in Monthly Average Maximum

too cold too hot

(Gilman et al., PNAS 2006)

Page 16: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Model Performance vs. Field Data

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

Difference in Monthly Average Maximum

too cold too hot

(Gilman et al., PNAS 2006)

Page 17: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Air Temperature vs. Field Data

too cold too hot

Difference in Monthly Average Maximum

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

(Gilman et al., PNAS 2006)

Page 18: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Hypothesis testing

• Produce short-range (8-day) forecasts and test using physiological measurements of stress (hsps, etc.)

• Generate hindcasts of body temperature back to 1950’s using historical data: compare against biogeographic data

• Make long-range predictions using GCM models: predict shifts in biodiversity/ ranges

Page 19: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Ecological forecasting

http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/forecasting

8-day forecasted mussel temperatures in upper intertidal from July 23, 2006

Page 20: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Patterns of mortality match forecasting predictions???

Photo: Laura Petes

Page 21: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Physiological Information: Semibalanus balanoides have reproductive failure if SST > 10°C in winter

Prediction: S. balanoides southern biogeographic limit moved north to the winter 10°C isotherm

Remote Sensing Information: 10°C winter isotherm moved north between 1984 and 1998

Biogeography of Barnacles in Europe

Page 22: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

Sea Surface Temperature (AVHRR 36km)

February 1984 February 1998

Arrows indicate the southern limit of S. balanoides based on field surveys from Southern Portugal to Denmark in 1984 and 2005

Page 23: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

•MODIS, ASTER Land Surface Temperature

•MODIS Sea Surface Temperature

•Climate Measurements

•Predator/Prey Studies•Population Genetics

•Physiological Tolerances

•Thermal Engineering Models•Wave Run-up Models

•Tide Cycles

In Situ & LaboratoryResearch

Remote Sensing

Ecological Modeling

•Skin vs. Body Temp

•GPS Positioning

•Skin vs. Modeled Temp•R/Sing Climatic

Inputs

•In situ vs. Modeled

Temp

Page 24: Ecological forecasting in the intertidal zone: from MODIS to mussels

• Woody Turner and the NASA Ecological Forecasting Team

• NASA grant NNG04GE43G• Nova Mieszkowska, Sierra Jones, Karly Jones,

Sarah Gilman, Srinivas Chintala• Bernardo Broitman, Carol Blanchette and

Packard-PISCO (U.S. West Coast)• Steve Hawkins, Alan Southward and MARCLIM

(Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, U.K.)• Cliff Cunningham and CORONA

Acknowledgments