Ecological Economics of Energy:

The Potential for a Transition to Renewables     

CANUSSEE Conference 2015, Vancouver, Canada

Jonathan M. Harris

http://ase.tufts.edu/gdaeCopyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change?

• Long-term link between economic growth and carbon emissions

• Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions

• Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions determine speed of transition

• Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?

Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)

Availability of Global Renewable Energy

Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration; Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-world-total-power-demand-2030-researchers-say

Energy SourceTotal Global

Availability (trillion watts)

Availability in Likely-Developable Locations

(trillion watts)Wind 1700 40 – 85

Wave > 2.7 0.5

Geothermal 45 0.07 – 0.14

Hydroelectric 1.9 1.6

Tidal 3.7 0.02

Solar photovoltaic 6500 340

Concentrated solar power 4600 240

Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts

Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources

Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).

Energy SourcePercent of 2030 Global Power

Supply

Number of Plants/Devices Needed

WorldwideWind turbines 50 3,800,000

Wave power plants 1 720,000

Geothermal plants 4 5,350

Hydroelectric plants 4 900

Tidal turbines 1 490,000

Rooftop solar PV systems 6 1.7 billion

Solar PV power plants 14 40,000

Concentrated solar power plants

20 49,000

TOTAL 100

Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area. (Can be combined with agricultural uses)

Global Potential for Energy Efficiency

Source: Blok et al. (2008) Global status report on energy efficiency 2008. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnerships. www.reeep.org

Source: International Energy Agency, 2011.

Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source

Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012)

Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

Nuclear

Coal

Gas combined cycle

Hydroelectric

Wind-offshore

Wind-onshore

Solar thermal electricity

Solar PV, utility scale

$/MWh

Levelized Cost of Electricity for New Generation

EIA Lazard

Sources: http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-v8-abstract/http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Wind

Photovoltaics

Hydropower

Biomass

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Eurocents per kilowatt-hour

Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods, European Union

Source: Owen, A. D. 2006. "Renewable energy: externality costs as market barriers." Energy Policy 34: 632-642.

Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013

Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth. 2014. Tracking the Sun VII: an historical summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013. SunShot Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy

Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040

Source: Feldman et al 2014. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf

Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, 2014. “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”. http://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/Q4%202014%20SMI%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, 1991-2008

Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.

Ene

rgy

Inte

nsity

- Btu

per

Yea

r 200

5 U

.S. D

olla

rs (1

991

base

yea

r)

Year

Source: EIA 2013.Source: EIA 2012.

90 unitscarbon-based

100 units carbon-based

2015 2035

Renewables 10 units

Renewables 20 units

100 units total

120 units total~1% p.a. growth in energy demand

Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

Business as Usual Scenario

90 unitscarbon-based 60 units

carbon-based

2015 2035

10 units

Renewables 20 units

100 units total

80 units total

~1% p.a. decline in energy demand

Copyright © 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain)

Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario

Source: US Department of Energy, 2013ACCESSED AT: http://www.eia.doe.gov

Decline since 2007: 12%

Reduction in population growth rates and in GDP growth rates could accentuate this trend, and will be necessary to meet carbon targets, but there is a lot of scope for energy and carbon intensity reduction.

Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern of declining emissions: growth in population and per capita output were outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use).

CARBON INTENSITY

PERCENT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS DRIVERS, 2012

ENERGY INTENSITY

PER CAPITA OUTPUT

POPULATION

percent change

A good trend, but needs continuing….

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 - 2013ARRA2009 denotes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Public Energy R&D Investment

Source: International Energy Agency, 2014.

Policies for the Renewable Energy Transition

• Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies• Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon • Energy research and development• Feed-in tariffs• Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan

terms• Renewable energy targets• Efficiency standards and labelling• Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs