Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerabilities to Climate Change: A study on Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, West Bengal

Synopsis

Submitted to the Board of Studies for the Consideration for Admission to

Doctor of Philosophy in Geography

by

Mehebub Sahana

Under the Supervisionof

Dr. Haroon Sajjad

Department of GeographyFaculty of Natural Sciences

Jamia Millia IslamiaNew Delhi- 110025

Climate Change

Climate change is a significant time variation in weather patterns

occurring over periods ranging from decades to millions of years.

Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or

in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions

(i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused

by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received

by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain human

activities have also been identified as significant causes of recent

climate change, often referred to as "global warming".

Climate change & Sundarban Biosphere

Reserve (SBR)

• The physical development processes along the coast are influenced by a multitudeof factors, comprising wave motions, micro and macro-tidal cycles and long shorecurrents typical to the coastal tract. These are also affected by cyclonic action.Erosion and accretion through these forces maintains varying levels, as yet notproperly measured, of physiographic change whilst the mangrove vegetation itselfprovides a remarkable stability to the entire system. During each monsoon seasonalmost all the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve area is submerged, much of it for halfa year. The sediment of the lower delta plain is primarily advected inland bymonsoonal coastal setup and cyclonic events. One of the greatest challengespeople living on Sundarban biosphere reverve area may face in coming years is thethreat of rising sea levels caused mostly by subsidence in the region and partly byclimate change.

• the soil salinity is very high in Sundarbans biosphere reserve. a 2007 report byUNESCO, "Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage" has stated that ananthropogenic 45-cm rise in sea level (likely by the end of the 21st century,according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), combined withother forms of anthropogenic stress on the Sundarbans, could lead to thedestruction of 75% of the Sundarbans mangroves. Already, Lohachara Island andNew Moore Island/South Talpatti Island have disappeared under the sea, andGhoramara Island is half submerged.

Objective

• The study aims to achieve the following objectives:

• To find out the intensity of climate change in Sunderban biosphere reserve.

• To examine the role of climate change on ecological vulnerability.

• To assess the impact of climate change on economic vulnerability.

• To examine the impact of climate change on social vulnerability

• To assess the climatic impact vulnerability and adaptation.

Research Hypothesis

• Changing climate is putting great stress on ecologicalsecurity of the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve.

• Human life and livelihood is at risk due to changingclimate in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve.

Study Area

• The study area is spread over Sundarban BiosphereReserve (SBR) of west Bengal in India. the total area ofSundarban biosphere region in India is 9630 sq kmbetween 21˚40'04”N and 22˚09'21”N latitude, and88˚01'56”E and 89˚06'01”E longitude.

• The Indian Sundarban has divided in main three broadgeographical regions, Core Zone, Buffer Zone andTransition Zone. The Sundarbans eco-region can becategorized into three distinct divisions – the beach/seaface, the swamp forests and the mature delta – basedon the bio-geophysical attributes.

• Sundarban biosphere reserve is spread in two majordistrict of West Bengal, South 24 Parganas and North 24Parganas. Sundarban also covers 6 administrative blocksof the adjacent North 24 Parganas district, besides 13blocks in South 24 Parganas.

Location of the Study Area

Database & Methodology

• The study will be based on both primary and secondarysources of data. The primary data for examiningecological, social and economic vulnerability will becollected through field work using structuredquestionnaire. The data will be drawn from acomprehensive survey. Stratified random samplingtechnique will be applied. The secondary data will becollected from different government agencies such asSurvey of India Topographical Sheet, Satellite data ofLandsat and IRS, DEM satellite data of Cartosat-1andRainfall and Temperature data from MeteorologicalDepartment of India. Followings methodology will beapplied:

Changes in Precipitation and Temperature

• All of the climatic parameters will be examined toobserve the rate of climate change. Monthly andyearly data of rainfall and temperature variables oflast five decades will be used in statistical model tocalculate the climate change intensity and itsinfluence. For land surface temperature estimationand change temporal data of Landsat TM will beused.

Soil Salinity Analysis

• Soil salinity will be analyzed by soil PH method andthe soil regions will be classified according to USDAsoil classification. Soil samples will be compared withthe soil PH data of Indian Council of Agricultural

Research.

Land use & land cover Dynamics

• The land use/ land cover maps of the study area will beprepared for different time periods to analyze the landuse change dynamics as a consequence of climatechange. The changing tendency of agriculture land use,degradation of River Island, wetlands, forest, built uparea, etc. will be assessed. The generated land use/land cover maps of the different time periods will bevalidated by conducting ground survey. GlobalPositioning System (GPS) will be used to collect theaccurate locations of the reference points, which willbe used in the validation. Vegetation indices (VIs) willbe applied to analyze the changes in vegetation cover.

River Bank Embankment & Sea Surface rising

CRITERIA GEOTECHNICAL INDICATOR

Bank Materials and Geotechnical

Attributes

Geometry of Embankment

Hydraulic Pressure

Soil Texture, Bulk Density,

Plasticity Index,

Bank Top Height, Bank Width, Bank

Slop

Water Height

Assignment of

Weightand

Rank Value

River Embankment

Breaching Vulnerability

Index

Ecological Vulnerability Index

• The biotic and abiotic components will be takenas an indicator to compute the ecologicalvulnerability index. The indicators containphysical aspects of the study area viz.degradation of River Island, degradation of wetlands, soil salinity, depletion of forest, loss ofaquatic plants and animals, etc.

Social Vulnerability Index

• House type, drinking water, sanitation, familysize, educational status, infant mortality, lifeexpectancy, etc will be collected to assess socialvulnerability to climate change.

Economic Vulnerability Index

• Economic vulnerability index will be calculated bytaking economic indicators like type ofoccupation, household income, accessibility ofresource, resource dependency, migration etc

Vulnerability Index

Where, i=Variables (1, 2, 3, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,I) j= Components (1, 2, 3, . . . . . . . . . ,J )k = Blocks (1, 2, 3, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .K )

For the evaluation of vulnerability indices in Sundarban BiosphereReserve, the relative approach of UNDP for developing HDI on an inter-country basis (UNDP, 1990 & 1992) will be applied. The analyticalapproach essential for conducting Composite Vulnerability Indices in theform of CVI is characterized by its four propositions of SocialVulnerability Index (SVI), Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) andEcological Vulnerability Index (Ec.VI). These vulnerability indices will becalculated by selecting site specific indicators in the study area. Thestratified random sampling method will be applied to conduct studyarea survey.The CVI, the exposition of the relative approach to evaluate the relativevulnerabilities status of a given set of entities is presented below.

Methodology for Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

SIO Topographic

al Sheet

SIO Topographical Sheet

SIO Topographical Sheet

ICAR Soil PH Data

Demarcation of Study Area

Subset Subset

Drainage Map

Road Network Map

Settlement Map

Land Use Land Cover Dynamics

Soil Map

GPS Survey

River Bank Embankment & Sea

Level Rising

Digital Elevation

Model

Forest Cover Change

Land & Sea Surface Temperature

Rainfall & Temperature

Data

Impact of Climate Change

Adaptation to Climate Change

Ecological Vulnerability

Social Vulnerability

Economic Vulnerability

Socio-economic

Survey

Tentative Chapter Scheme

Introduction• Objectives• Hypotheses• Study area• Database and Methodology• Review of Literature• Chapter Scheme

Chapter One: Climate change impact onSundarban biosphere reserve ecosystem1.1 Temperature variation1.2 Disruption of rainfall pattern1.3 Cyclones1.4 Flood1.5 Sea level rise

Chapter Two: Climate Change and landuse/land cover dynamics2.1 Forest2.2 Agriculture2.3 Built up area2.4 Water bodies

Chapter Three: Ecological vulnerability toclimate change3.1 Land degradation3.2 Soil degradation

3.3 Forest degradation3.4 Islands and wetlands3.4 Fauna

Chapter Four: Social vulnerability to climatechange4.1 Demographic characteristics4.2 Living environment4.3 social indicators

Chapter Five: Economic vulnerability to climatechange5.1 Types of occupation5.2 Household income5.3 Accessibility of resource5.4 Resource dependency5.5 Migration

Chapter Six: Adaptation capacity to climatechange6.1 Ecological adaptation6.2 Social adaptation6.3 Economic adaptation

ConclusionBibliography Appendices

Adaptation to climate change

• Ecological adaptation

• Social adaptation

• Economic adaptation

References Adger W. N, Brooks N, Bentham G, Agnew M, Eriksenet S. (2004). New indicators of

vulnerability and adaptive capacity. In UK Tyndall Centre for Climate ChangeResearch (Technical, Report 7).

Cutter SL. (1996). Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Prog Hum Geogr. 20(4):529–39.

Cutter SL. Hazard. S, (2006). Vulnerability and Environmental Justice. London: Earthscan.

Cutter S. L, Boruff, B. J, Shirley W. L. (2003). Social vulnerability to environmentalhazards. Soc Sci. 84(2):242–61.

Ashalatha, K. V., Gopinath, M. and Bhat. A. R. S., (2012). Impact of Climate Changeon Rainfed Agriculture in India: A Case Study of Dharwad. International Journal ofEnvironmental Science and Development, Vol. 3, No. 4.

Raymond, G. (2009): The Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture,University of Maryland.

Sudip, M., Mandal P.P., Mukhopadhya, A., Akhand, A., Hazra S., Mitra D. (2013).Vegetation Cover Change Analysis from Multi-temporal Satellite Data in JharkhaliIsland, Sundarban, India. Indian journal of Geo-marine Science Vol. 42(3), pp. 331-342.

Hazra S., Samanta K., Mukhopadhyay A., & Akhand A. (2010). Temporal ChangeDetection (2001-2008) Study of Sundarban. School of Oceanographic Studies,Jadavpur University.

USDA, (1954). Diagnosis and improvement of saline and alkali soils. U.S.Dept. ofAgriculture Handbook no. 60. USDA, Washington, DC

Raha A. K., mishra A., Bhattacharya S., Ghatak S., Pramanick P., Dey S., Sarkar I. andJha, C. (2014). Sea Level Rise and Submergence of Sundarban Islands: A TimeSeries Study of Estuarine Dynamics. Journal of Ecology and EnvironmentalSciences. ISSN: 0976-9900 & E-ISSN: 0976 9919, Volume 5, pp.-114-1236

Chand, B. K., Trivedi, R. K., Dubey, S.K. and Beg M.M. (2012). Aquaculture inChanging Climate, Sundarban” West Bengal University of Animal & FisherySciences.

UEPA: United Environmental Planning Association report, 2010. Dharnasiri, L. M. (2009). ‘Measuring Agricultural Productivity Using the Average

Productivity Index (API)’, Sri Lanka Journal of Advanced Social Studies Vol. 1 - No.2 Mondal, M., Bhunia G.S. and Shit, P.K. (2012). “Vulnerability Analysis of

Embankment Breaching – A Case Study of Moyna Drainage Basin in PurbaMedinipur, West Bengal, India. International Journal of Geology, Earth andEnvironmental Sciences ISSN: 2277-2081

USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/regional/sundarbans-where-farmers-sell-

goats-to-protect-trees/ http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/hungry-tide-mangroves-on-

hooghly-bank-set-off-fear-of-rising-sea/ http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/tell-world-about-sunderbans-

fragility-state-to-centre/

Thank you