Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1....

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Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerability links closely with climate variation: A study exploring adaptation using this connect Nidhi Nagabhatla 14 November 2011 : Climate Vulnerability Forum, Dhaka Summit, Bangladesh 28 th September 2012, Helsinki- Finland Addressing Climate Change :It is an imperative which we have to do in all the circumstances UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change and Development Policy

Transcript of Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1....

Page 1: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerability links closely with climate variation: A study exploring

adaptation using this connect

Nidhi Nagabhatla

14 November 2011 : Climate Vulnerability Forum, Dhaka Summit, Bangladesh

28th September 2012, Helsinki- Finland

Addressing Climate Change :It is an imperative which we have to do in all the circumstances

UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change and Development Policy

Page 2: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

What is Vulnerability ?

Which Nations Are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change?

Transforming Adaptive Capacity to Adaptation ?

British firm Maplecroft (top 10) : Bangladesh, India , Madagascar, Nepal, Mozambique, Philippines, Haiti, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Myanmar. ( 60% from Asia- S & SEA)

Residual situation after adapting to a risk situation (IPCC)

The way we respond and cope to change to the way it is required to

Gradient of exposure and proneness to damage/disaster

Page 3: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and

projected (2025) population density, urban population, coastal population.

2. Economics: per capita GDP, GDP distribution from agriculture, industry, other sectors, trends in annual GDP growth rate.

3. Land cover/land use: total land area, arable and cropped, pastured, forest and woodlands

4. Water: water resources per capita, annual allocations for different sectors viz., domestic, industrial and agricultural use.

5. Agriculture: food production, irrigated/rain-fed areas, livestock’s, agricultural labor markets & production value chains

6. Energy: energy consumption (commercial/domestic), renewables, hydroelectric

7. Biodiversity: floral, faunal, avifaunal and marine diversity

Page 4: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Climate Change Monitoring

First Segment

Page 5: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Scenarios for South Asia (adopted from Cruz et al 2007)

Page 6: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Pre Monsoonal Situation (MAM) 1870-2007 Drought Flood

Page 7: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Winter Rainfall (DJF)

Page 8: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Monsoonal Rainfall (JJA)

y = -0.03x + 61.285 R² = 0.0025

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y = -0.0355x + 312.55 R² = 0.0035

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Page 9: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Post Monsoon (SON) y = 0.0326x + 32.443

R² = 0.0042

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Page 10: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Temperature Trend : India ( T max)

R² = 0.1053

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Page 11: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

R² = 0.1146 -1.5

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Page 12: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

1952 1960 1964

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JJAS (MM)

Normal Monsoon years

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OBS

MME

Page 14: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Socioeconomic consequences of climate variability and its effect on natural/ managed

systems

Second Segment

Climate Change Assessment

Page 15: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Case Study 1 : Climatic variability vis-a vis Fisheries in

Bangladesh

Why Bangaldesh ?

Page 16: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Global Vulnerability Profiling (Wheeler and Haddad, 2005)

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2008 2050

Of Top 20 Countries more than 50 % in South , South East and East Asia

Countries listed in the order of ranking with India stated as most vulnerable

Page 17: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Facts ….[ Export value of global fish trade is: US$63 billion in (2003), more than the combined value of net exports of rice, coffee, sugar and tea. ………………………………(FAO-UN)

]

• Half of global fish trade comes from developing countries

• Global consumption increased by 21% between 1992 and 2002 and increases further

• Nearly 25% of the world's marine fish stocks are overexploited

About 50% fully exploited (overfishing and increasing degradation of coastal, marine and freshwater ecosystems and habitats)

More Facts

Page 18: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Leading to people migrating for work

Total

Inland

Marine

Page 19: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

• Three Different time periods : MAM, SON and DJF

• Date Used : Sea Wifs

• Temporal Span : 1998-2009 • Standard Trend : declining • Decline more pronounced in SON • (nearly half of the value at the start end of the

temporal scale)

MAM

SON

DJF

Page 20: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Increasing trend during SON and DJF

SON

DJF

MAM

Page 21: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Increasing trend during DJF and MAM SON shows a declining trend attributed to fresh water turbidity and influx

SON

DJF

MAM

Page 22: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

A negative correlation exists between Chl-a and SST during SON and MAM, except in coastal zone

Page 23: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Case Study 2 : Climate Change and

Human Migration

Bangladesh

Page 24: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

• Currently more 3% of world population migrate for work • Stern (2007) estimates 150-200 million displaced by CC

[Christian Aid (2007) reports 1 billion ] • Migration driven by ‘push and pull factors’

Highlights: Climate Shifts and Migration Flows

Pull Country of destination Demand for workers

/employment Access to resources Political Stability Low vulnerability to CC Regulated or low population

growth

Push Country of origin Political Instability Lack of economic growth and

opportunities Lack of access to resources Exposure to extreme climate events

(high vulnerability to CC) Rate of population growth Socio-economic condition

Page 25: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

5,000

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Cyclone Bhola-Nov-1970.

Severe Cyclone-May-1985

Bangladesh Cyclone-April-1991

Cyclone Sidr-November -2007

Cyclone Alia-May-2009

Number of people dead('00) Total number of People Affected (millions)

Disaster drives Migration : IDP’s and Refugees

Page 26: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Observation and Projection

48 49

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Estimated People displacement (million)

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%of total population (estimated )FL

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Page 27: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

0 10 20 30 40 50

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Chittagong

Dhaka

Khulna

Rajashahi

Sylhet

% of Agriculture Labour Households to total households

2008

1996

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Spatial Distribution at the national level

Brahmaputra

Ganges

Exposure to extreme events as a surrogate of ecological and biophysical vulnerability

Page 28: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

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Poverty as a surrogate of social vulnerability ( expressed as landless households)

Page 29: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Profiling Vulnerability Bangladesh 1(Low)-5 (high) 1(Low)-5

(high) 1(Low)-5 (high) 1(Low)-5

(high)

Provincial Divisions

Exposure to Extreme Climate Events

Sensitivity (Poverty)

Adaptive Capacity Ranking Climate Vulnerability

Barisal 4 4 2 5

Chittagong 4 3 2 4

Dhaka 2 1 4 2

Khulna 2 3 4 3

Rajashahi 1 5 5 1

Sylhet 5 1 1 4

Page 30: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Case Study 3 :

Agro-ecosystem of Wayanad, in Kerela rice

banana

Arecanut

Page 31: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Wayanad

31

Vellamunda Panamaram

Kerala

Wayanad

Administrative center : Kalpetta Three main blocks Area : 2000 sq km

Wayanad surrounds Western Ghats on the west

Census 2011 Wayanad Population :816 558

Page 32: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

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Temporal trend in rice : what do records say ?

Page 33: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

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Paddy (rice ) growth trends

Ten years paddy (rice) distribution trend in Kerala

Paddy (rice) distribution trend in Wayanad

Page 34: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

DTR [Diurnal Temperature Range ) Anomaly

Winter

Summer

Crop growth simulations show that rice yields decrease 9% for each 1°C increase in seasonal average temperature (Kropff et al., 1993).

Page 35: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Concluding Remarks

• Clear understanding of climate interactions with social and environmental varies with scale, season, systems and region is pertinent to assess vulnerability and address adaptation

• Integration of scientifically delineated climate information in decision making is certainly one of the potential ways to attend to address uncertainty associated with climate change

• Transdisciplinarity is a point to ponder

Page 36: Ecological and Socio -economic Vulnerability links closely ......IPCC- Socioeconomic Scenarios 1. Demographics and development: total population, current and projected (2025) population

Thank You for your attention

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