Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Greater Victoria Long Term Enrolment...

Ecocene Applied ResearchEcocene Applied Research

Transforming Data to KnowledgeTransforming Data to Knowledge

Greater VictoriaGreater VictoriaLong Term Enrolment Long Term Enrolment

Projections: 2006 - 2020Projections: 2006 - 2020



IssuesIssues Declining enrolmentDeclining enrolment Implementation of grade reconfigurationImplementation of grade reconfiguration Desire for independent projectionsDesire for independent projections Need to look at a fifteen year horizonNeed to look at a fifteen year horizon School, grade and program levelSchool, grade and program level



Solution – Long Term Enrolment Solution – Long Term Enrolment Projection ModelProjection Model

Provides an independent view.Provides an independent view. Provides outside experience.Provides outside experience. Provides projections structured to the Provides projections structured to the

needs of the District.needs of the District. Allows for exploration of impacts.Allows for exploration of impacts.



AssumptionsAssumptions A major assumption is that patterns of enrolment for A major assumption is that patterns of enrolment for

closed schools will carry on to the schools where those closed schools will carry on to the schools where those enrolments are moved.enrolments are moved.

Adult enrolments, are included in these projections. Adult enrolments, are included in these projections. International students or other fee paying students are International students or other fee paying students are

specifically excluded.specifically excluded. Some historical enrolments for closed schools only Some historical enrolments for closed schools only

appear in the District as a School projection. appear in the District as a School projection. Projections are headcounts and are best compared to Projections are headcounts and are best compared to

future headcounts.future headcounts. FTEs are estimates based on the historical averages of FTEs are estimates based on the historical averages of

FTEs to Headcount by Grade for the District. FTEs to Headcount by Grade for the District.



Methodology Methodology

The process of building the enrolment The process of building the enrolment projections has three basic phases: projections has three basic phases:

Obtaining data, Obtaining data, Building baseline enrolment projections, Building baseline enrolment projections, And adjusting for individual circumstances.And adjusting for individual circumstances.



Data CollectionData Collection

Obtain headcount enrolment by school, Obtain headcount enrolment by school, program and grade for six years. program and grade for six years.

Population projections were obtained for Population projections were obtained for the District from BC Stats. the District from BC Stats.

Contact municipal planning authorities in Contact municipal planning authorities in the District to obtain information on any the District to obtain information on any upcoming developments that might impact upcoming developments that might impact school age populations.school age populations.



Building Baseline ProjectionsBuilding Baseline Projections A model projection was built using linear regression to estimate A model projection was built using linear regression to estimate

cohort retention from grade to grade.cohort retention from grade to grade. This methodology was also used to determine the proportion of 4 This methodology was also used to determine the proportion of 4

year olds (from BC Stats Projections) that would be moving into year olds (from BC Stats Projections) that would be moving into Kindergarten and thus becoming the base cohort for subsequent Kindergarten and thus becoming the base cohort for subsequent years. years.

Six years of data produced five data pairs for each Six years of data produced five data pairs for each grade/program/school combination. Thus, for Grade 3 French grade/program/school combination. Thus, for Grade 3 French Immersion at Margaret Jenkins there is a unique set of five data Immersion at Margaret Jenkins there is a unique set of five data points that determine the linear regression formula that links the points that determine the linear regression formula that links the Grade 2 enrolments (y variable) with the Grade 3 enrolments (x Grade 2 enrolments (y variable) with the Grade 3 enrolments (x variable). variable).

This model projection was replicated for all schools and grades and This model projection was replicated for all schools and grades and for Regular, French Immersion, and District Programs. for Regular, French Immersion, and District Programs.

School Families’ projections were produced by summing the School Families’ projections were produced by summing the individual school projections within each family. individual school projections within each family.



Adjusting for Individual Adjusting for Individual CircumstancesCircumstances

Given the natural volatility of school catchments, Given the natural volatility of school catchments, parental choice and the impact of Grade Reconfiguration parental choice and the impact of Grade Reconfiguration there are some schools and grades for which the there are some schools and grades for which the baseline model does not work well and had to be baseline model does not work well and had to be adjusted. adjusted.

These included: shortening the time frame (to three These included: shortening the time frame (to three years in some cases); using simple retention methods years in some cases); using simple retention methods (averages over time); in some cases simply carrying (averages over time); in some cases simply carrying existing enrolments forward (e.g. some district existing enrolments forward (e.g. some district programs). programs).

Only projections clearly unreasonable were adjusted. Only projections clearly unreasonable were adjusted. Some projections may produce results that are Some projections may produce results that are unexpected but are still possible. One must be careful unexpected but are still possible. One must be careful not to adjust projections to fit your preconceptions. not to adjust projections to fit your preconceptions.



Sample TableSample Table

Regular

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals FTEs2000 168 110 133 157 158 726 704.02001 157 175 95 182 157 766 741.5 5.3%2002 230 227 146 185 788 766.0 3.3%2003 203 210 215 126 754 727.5 -5.0%2004 220 148 222 178 768 738.7 1.5%2005 184 197 200 163 744 717.5 -2.9%2006 198 173 211 169 750 721.8 0.6%2007 197 183 198 173 751 724.7 0.4%2008 198 183 204 168 752 725.3 0.1%2009 194 184 203 170 752 724.7 -0.1%2010 191 181 204 170 745 718.3 -0.9%2011 189 178 202 170 740 712.8 -0.8%2012 188 177 201 170 735 708.2 -0.6%2013 186 176 200 169 731 704.0 -0.6%2014 186 174 200 169 728 701.4 -0.4%2015 184 174 199 168 725 698.5 -0.4%2016 185 172 199 168 724 697.7 -0.1%2017 186 173 198 168 725 698.9 0.2%2018 186 174 198 168 726 699.8 0.1%2019 184 174 199 168 725 698.2 -0.2%2020 181 172 199 168 721 694.3 -0.6%

% Change (FTEs)

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-0.1% -0.8% 0.0%Mean % Change Per

Year (2005 - 2020)0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

Average percent change year over year for

projected numbers.

FTEs are estimates based on historical

headcount to FTE ratios (by grade).

Projections in the first grade of a middle or high

school are based on district enrolments.

Historical headcount enrolments. Note the loss of Grade 8 from

reconfiguration.

Percent change in FTEs year over year. These may not be exactly proportional to the same

figure for total headcount as FTEs are estimated grade by grade.

Kindergarten enrolments are based on District wide projections

of four year olds in previous years.



Regular EnrolmentsRegular Enrolments

District as a School

Regular

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals FTEs2000 1,201 1,359 1,313 1,432 1,411 1,431 1,345 1,529 1,520 1,446 1,740 1,867 2,052 19,646 18,800.72001 1,047 1,261 1,378 1,330 1,426 1,404 1,375 1,335 1,584 1,552 1,414 1,947 1,921 18,974 18,199.9 -3.2%2002 1,056 1,114 1,239 1,353 1,318 1,393 1,376 1,403 1,444 1,609 1,612 1,682 2,004 18,603 17,847.8 -1.9%2003 975 1,089 1,113 1,246 1,364 1,317 1,306 1,369 1,443 1,461 1,593 1,671 1,639 17,586 16,885.3 -5.4%2004 937 1,011 1,084 1,130 1,262 1,367 1,225 1,318 1,505 1,562 1,467 1,780 1,599 17,247 16,555.3 -2.0%2005 921 954 1,019 1,086 1,143 1,270 1,292 1,256 1,400 1,525 1,566 1,524 1,662 16,618 15,957.0 -3.6%2006 869 946 952 1,037 1,105 1,176 1,158 1,308 1,374 1,476 1,529 1,722 1,371 16,023 15,378.7 -3.6%2007 899 886 944 974 1,059 1,145 1,028 1,196 1,413 1,459 1,474 1,686 1,664 15,827 15,160.8 -1.4%2008 930 921 883 967 1,001 1,108 985 1,086 1,328 1,485 1,455 1,633 1,611 15,392 14,717.7 -2.9%2009 931 956 918 910 994 1,060 933 1,049 1,245 1,429 1,484 1,614 1,532 15,056 14,387.1 -2.2%2010 866 957 954 943 941 1,055 867 1,006 1,218 1,374 1,421 1,642 1,504 14,747 14,107.6 -1.9%2011 794 883 955 977 972 1,012 859 950 1,185 1,356 1,359 1,581 1,546 14,428 13,826.7 -2.0%2012 787 801 880 977 1,003 1,037 799 943 1,143 1,335 1,339 1,521 1,455 14,019 13,430.8 -2.9%2013 786 792 797 907 1,004 1,062 834 893 1,138 1,307 1,314 1,501 1,366 13,701 13,119.2 -2.3%2014 787 791 788 830 938 1,063 869 922 1,100 1,304 1,283 1,477 1,337 13,489 12,910.7 -1.6%2015 774 792 788 822 867 1,010 870 952 1,122 1,279 1,279 1,447 1,301 13,302 12,733.6 -1.4%2016 761 778 788 822 859 951 796 953 1,144 1,293 1,251 1,443 1,256 13,095 12,534.9 -1.6%2017 762 763 774 822 858 945 715 890 1,145 1,308 1,267 1,416 1,251 12,916 12,358.2 -1.4%2018 765 765 759 808 859 944 706 822 1,098 1,308 1,284 1,432 1,210 12,760 12,201.2 -1.3%2019 763 768 760 795 846 945 705 815 1,046 1,277 1,284 1,448 1,234 12,686 12,126.0 -0.6%2020 753 765 764 796 833 935 706 814 1,041 1,243 1,249 1,448 1,258 12,606 12,049.0 -0.6%

-1.6% -1.6% -1.6%Mean % Change Per

Year (2005 - 2020)-1.2% -1.3% -1.7% -1.8% -1.8% -1.8% -3.0% -2.3%

% Change (FTEs)

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-1.7% -1.2% -1.3% -0.3%



French Immersion EnrolmentsFrench Immersion Enrolments


French Immersion

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals FTEs2000 209 238 195 175 154 115 153 126 101 65 90 77 44 1,742 1,632.22001 227 220 217 185 159 140 140 146 85 84 67 87 77 1,834 1,713.3 5.0%2002 234 219 200 206 170 149 160 108 102 75 80 44 54 1,801 1,682.1 -1.8%2003 260 261 210 187 201 162 196 139 90 86 49 64 39 1,944 1,811.2 7.7%2004 294 288 247 200 171 187 250 175 119 70 83 38 57 2,179 2,031.8 12.2%2005 290 328 281 237 186 166 244 243 158 88 71 75 43 2,410 2,261.6 11.3%2006 320 297 250 215 184 178 224 235 221 110 80 58 61 2,431 2,269.0 0.3%2007 305 307 257 222 187 181 243 212 212 141 97 69 52 2,486 2,330.7 2.7%2008 289 300 265 222 188 186 249 234 188 137 122 90 57 2,529 2,379.2 2.1%2009 289 293 261 226 189 190 257 241 212 125 119 120 68 2,590 2,436.1 2.4%2010 322 293 256 224 191 191 264 249 219 137 109 116 83 2,654 2,484.5 2.0%2011 357 308 256 221 190 195 265 258 228 140 119 104 81 2,722 2,537.3 2.1%2012 361 324 266 221 189 193 273 259 236 145 122 115 75 2,778 2,590.5 2.1%2013 361 325 276 227 189 190 268 268 238 149 125 119 81 2,816 2,627.7 1.4%2014 361 326 277 232 191 190 264 263 247 150 129 123 83 2,835 2,646.5 0.7%2015 367 325 277 233 194 196 264 258 242 154 129 127 85 2,852 2,659.4 0.5%2016 374 328 277 233 194 202 273 258 237 152 133 128 87 2,875 2,679.5 0.8%2017 373 331 279 233 194 202 283 268 236 149 131 132 87 2,900 2,704.6 0.9%2018 372 331 281 234 194 202 284 280 248 149 129 130 90 2,923 2,727.8 0.9%2019 373 330 281 235 195 202 285 281 260 155 129 127 88 2,940 2,744.5 0.6%2020 378 331 280 235 195 203 284 281 261 161 133 127 87 2,957 2,759.2 0.5%

1.5%1.5%1.1% 5.8% 4.6% 6.8%1.0% 4.3% 5.5%0.0% -0.1% 0.3% 1.5%

% Change (FTEs)

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Mean % Change Per Year (2005 - 2020)

2.0% 0.1%



District Program EnrolmentsDistrict Program Enrolments


District Program

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals FTEs2000 32 45 49 48 48 59 65 56 114 138 156 319 55 1,184 1,134.52001 40 39 39 48 56 63 64 66 117 113 177 289 60 1,171 1,120.5 -1.2%2002 46 52 49 47 61 60 43 42 81 124 185 218 69 1,077 1,030.4 -8.0%2003 31 47 58 54 39 54 31 37 115 183 160 171 48 1,028 994.1 -3.5%2004 49 48 59 62 57 50 55 53 30 108 152 173 75 971 927.2 -6.7%2005 44 58 44 60 60 58 59 40 24 173 148 120 107 995 957.6 3.3%2006 44 51 58 49 60 58 49 49 64 191 159 193 91 1,118 1,073.6 12.1%2007 44 51 53 60 53 58 49 47 72 161 156 194 79 1,077 1,033.2 -3.8%2008 43 51 53 56 60 57 49 47 70 155 160 194 79 1,075 1,031.7 -0.1%2009 43 51 53 56 57 58 51 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,077 1,034.0 0.2%2010 44 51 53 56 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,076 1,032.2 -0.2%2011 45 52 53 56 57 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,078 1,033.8 0.2%2012 45 52 54 56 57 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,079 1,034.6 0.1%2013 46 52 54 56 57 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,080 1,035.9 0.1%2014 45 52 54 57 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,081 1,036.5 0.1%2015 46 52 54 57 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,081 1,037.0 0.0%2016 46 52 54 57 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,082 1,037.3 0.0%2017 46 53 54 57 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,082 1,037.4 0.0%2018 46 53 54 57 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,082 1,037.5 0.0%2019 46 53 54 57 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,082 1,037.6 0.0%2020 46 53 54 57 58 58 49 47 70 156 161 194 79 1,082 1,037.7 0.0%

4.1% -1.8% 0.6%1.6% -0.4% 0.6%-0.2% 0.0% -1.1%

% Change (FTEs)

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Mean % Change Per Year (2005 - 2020)

1.2% 12.9% -0.6% 0.6%0.3% -0.6%



Sum of All EnrolmentsSum of All Enrolments


Sum of Regular, French Immersion and District Programs

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals FTEs2000 1,442 1,642 1,557 1,655 1,613 1,605 1,563 1,711 1,735 1,649 1,986 2,263 2,151 22,572 21,567.52001 1,314 1,520 1,634 1,563 1,641 1,607 1,579 1,547 1,786 1,749 1,658 2,323 2,058 21,979 21,033.7 -2.5%2002 1,336 1,385 1,488 1,606 1,549 1,602 1,579 1,553 1,627 1,808 1,877 1,944 2,127 21,481 20,560.2 -2.3%2003 1,266 1,397 1,381 1,487 1,604 1,533 1,533 1,545 1,648 1,730 1,802 1,906 1,726 20,558 19,690.7 -4.2%2004 1,280 1,347 1,390 1,392 1,490 1,604 1,530 1,546 1,654 1,740 1,702 1,991 1,731 20,397 19,514.3 -0.9%2005 1,255 1,340 1,344 1,383 1,389 1,494 1,595 1,539 1,582 1,786 1,785 1,719 1,812 20,023 19,176.2 -1.7%2006 1,233 1,294 1,260 1,301 1,348 1,413 1,431 1,592 1,659 1,778 1,768 1,973 1,523 19,571 18,721.2 -2.4%2007 1,247 1,245 1,254 1,256 1,299 1,385 1,320 1,455 1,697 1,761 1,728 1,948 1,795 19,390 18,524.7 -1.0%2008 1,263 1,272 1,202 1,245 1,249 1,351 1,283 1,367 1,586 1,777 1,737 1,916 1,747 18,996 18,128.6 -2.1%2009 1,263 1,301 1,232 1,193 1,240 1,309 1,240 1,337 1,527 1,710 1,764 1,927 1,679 18,723 17,857.2 -1.5%2010 1,231 1,301 1,264 1,223 1,190 1,304 1,179 1,302 1,507 1,667 1,691 1,952 1,666 18,477 17,624.3 -1.3%2011 1,197 1,242 1,264 1,254 1,219 1,265 1,173 1,255 1,483 1,653 1,639 1,879 1,706 18,228 17,397.8 -1.3%2012 1,193 1,177 1,199 1,255 1,249 1,288 1,121 1,250 1,450 1,635 1,621 1,830 1,609 17,876 17,055.9 -2.0%2013 1,193 1,170 1,127 1,190 1,249 1,310 1,152 1,208 1,446 1,612 1,600 1,814 1,526 17,598 16,782.8 -1.6%2014 1,193 1,169 1,120 1,120 1,187 1,311 1,183 1,232 1,417 1,610 1,572 1,794 1,498 17,406 16,593.7 -1.1%2015 1,187 1,170 1,119 1,112 1,118 1,263 1,183 1,257 1,434 1,589 1,569 1,768 1,465 17,235 16,430.0 -1.0%2016 1,180 1,158 1,120 1,111 1,111 1,211 1,118 1,258 1,451 1,601 1,545 1,765 1,422 17,052 16,251.7 -1.1%2017 1,181 1,147 1,107 1,112 1,110 1,206 1,047 1,206 1,452 1,613 1,559 1,742 1,417 16,898 16,100.2 -0.9%2018 1,183 1,148 1,094 1,099 1,111 1,205 1,040 1,149 1,416 1,614 1,574 1,755 1,378 16,765 15,966.5 -0.8%2019 1,182 1,151 1,095 1,086 1,099 1,206 1,039 1,143 1,376 1,588 1,574 1,769 1,401 16,708 15,908.1 -0.4%2020 1,177 1,149 1,098 1,088 1,086 1,196 1,040 1,142 1,372 1,560 1,543 1,770 1,423 16,645 15,845.9 -0.4%

-1.1% -1.2%-0.9% 0.2% -1.4%-1.4% -1.5% -1.3% -2.3% -1.7% -0.9% -0.8%Mean % Change Per

Year (2005 - 2020)-0.4% -1.0% -1.2%

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% Change (FTEs)

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Initial Cohort ChartInitial Cohort ChartDistrict as a School

Kindergarten, Grade 6 and Grade 9 Headcount Over TimeRegular and French Immersion - Actual and Projected (2006 Onward)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Hea

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K - Headcount

Grade 6

Grade 9

K - Headcount 1,410 1,274 1,290 1,235 1,231 1,211 1,189 1,204 1,220 1,220 1,187 1,151 1,147 1,147 1,147 1,141 1,135 1,135 1,137 1,136 1,131

Grade 6 1,498 1,515 1,536 1,502 1,475 1,536 1,382 1,271 1,234 1,190 1,131 1,124 1,072 1,102 1,133 1,134 1,069 998 990 990 990

Grade 9 1,511 1,636 1,684 1,547 1,632 1,613 1,586 1,600 1,622 1,554 1,511 1,497 1,479 1,456 1,454 1,433 1,445 1,457 1,457 1,432 1,404

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



Enrolment by School LevelEnrolment by School LevelDistrict as a School

Enrolment by School Level (Regular and French Immersion) Actual and Projected (2006 Onward)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

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Highschool

Middle

Elementary

Highschool 7,381 7,149 7,160 6,602 6,656 6,554 6,406 6,643 6,590 6,490 6,386 6,286 6,106 5,962 5,884 5,801 5,743 5,741 5,731 5,742 5,707

Middle 4,774 4,665 4,593 4,543 4,592 4,593 4,520 4,304 4,070 3,937 3,822 3,744 3,654 3,639 3,665 3,707 3,660 3,538 3,437 3,391 3,387

Elementary 9,233 8,994 8,651 8,385 8,178 7,881 7,527 7,367 7,261 7,219 7,193 7,120 7,037 6,917 6,775 6,645 6,567 6,537 6,514 6,493 6,469

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



Enrolment by Program TypeEnrolment by Program TypeDistrict as a School

Enrolment by Program Type - Actual and Projected (2006 Onward)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

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District Program

French Immersion

Regular

District Program 1,184 1,171 1,077 1,028 971 995 1,118 1,077 1,075 1,077 1,076 1,078 1,079 1,080 1,081 1,081 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082 1,082

French Immersion 1,742 1,834 1,801 1,944 2,179 2,410 2,431 2,486 2,529 2,590 2,654 2,722 2,778 2,816 2,835 2,852 2,875 2,900 2,923 2,940 2,957

Regular 19,646 18,974 18,603 17,586 17,247 16,618 16,023 15,827 15,392 15,056 14,747 14,428 14,019 13,701 13,489 13,302 13,095 12,916 12,760 12,686 12,606

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



Enrolment by GradeEnrolment by GradeDistrict as a School

Data for this chart is from the 'Sum of Regular, French Immersion and District Programs' table.

Enrolment by Grade (Regular, French Immersion, and District)Actual and Projected (2006 Onward)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Year Over Year Same Grade Year Over Year Same Grade Percentage GrowthPercentage Growth


Regular

Year 4 year olds as of December 31, this is offset by one year (i.e., this allows the use of the same formulas)K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals FTEs20002001 -3.5% -12.8% -7.2% 5.0% -7.1% 1.1% -1.9% 2.2% -12.7% 4.2% 7.3% -18.7% 4.3% -6.4% -3.4% -3.2%2002 -3.2% 0.9% -11.7% -10.1% 1.7% -7.6% -0.8% 0.1% 5.1% -8.8% 3.7% 14.0% -13.6% 4.3% -2.0% -1.9%2003 -1.2% -7.7% -2.2% -10.2% -7.9% 3.5% -5.5% -5.1% -2.4% -0.1% -9.2% -1.2% -0.7% -18.2% -5.5% -5.4%2004 -2.7% -3.9% -7.2% -2.6% -9.3% -7.5% 3.8% -6.2% -3.7% 4.3% 6.9% -7.9% 6.5% -2.4% -1.9% -2.0%2005 -4.0% -1.7% -5.6% -6.0% -3.9% -9.4% -7.1% 5.5% -4.7% -7.0% -2.4% 6.7% -14.4% 3.9% -3.6% -3.6%2006 2.4% -5.7% -0.8% -6.6% -4.5% -3.3% -7.4% -10.3% 4.1% -1.9% -3.2% -2.3% 13.0% -17.5% -3.6% -3.6%2007 2.4% 3.5% -6.3% -0.8% -6.0% -4.1% -2.6% -11.2% -8.6% 2.9% -1.2% -3.6% -2.1% 21.4% -1.2% -1.4%2008 0.1% 3.5% 3.9% -6.4% -0.8% -5.5% -3.3% -4.2% -9.2% -6.0% 1.8% -1.3% -3.2% -3.2% -2.8% -2.9%2009 -5.0% 0.1% 3.9% 4.0% -5.8% -0.7% -4.3% -5.3% -3.4% -6.2% -3.8% 2.0% -1.2% -4.9% -2.2% -2.2%2010 -5.8% -7.0% 0.1% 3.9% 3.6% -5.3% -0.5% -7.1% -4.2% -2.2% -3.8% -4.3% 1.8% -1.9% -2.1% -1.9%2011 -0.6% -8.2% -7.8% 0.1% 3.5% 3.2% -4.1% -0.9% -5.5% -2.7% -1.3% -4.3% -3.7% 2.8% -2.2% -2.0%2012 -0.1% -1.0% -9.3% -7.9% 0.1% 3.2% 2.5% -6.9% -0.7% -3.5% -1.6% -1.5% -3.8% -5.9% -2.8% -2.9%2013 0.1% -0.1% -1.1% -9.4% -7.2% 0.1% 2.5% 4.3% -5.3% -0.4% -2.1% -1.8% -1.3% -6.1% -2.3% -2.3%2014 -1.1% 0.1% -0.1% -1.1% -8.5% -6.5% 0.1% 4.2% 3.3% -3.3% -0.3% -2.4% -1.6% -2.2% -1.5% -1.6%2015 -1.1% -1.6% 0.1% -0.1% -1.0% -7.6% -5.0% 0.1% 3.2% 2.0% -1.9% -0.3% -2.1% -2.6% -1.4% -1.4%2016 0.1% -1.7% -1.9% 0.1% -0.1% -0.9% -5.8% -8.5% 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% -2.2% -0.3% -3.5% -1.6% -1.6%2017 0.3% 0.2% -1.9% -1.9% 0.1% -0.1% -0.7% -10.2% -6.6% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% -1.9% -0.4% -1.4% -1.4%2018 -0.2% 0.4% 0.2% -1.9% -1.7% 0.1% -0.1% -1.2% -7.7% -4.1% 0.0% 1.3% 1.1% -3.2% -1.2% -1.3%2019 -0.9% -0.3% 0.5% 0.2% -1.7% -1.5% 0.1% -0.1% -0.9% -4.7% -2.4% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9% -0.6% -0.6%2020 -0.7% -1.3% -0.3% 0.5% 0.2% -1.5% -1.1% 0.1% -0.1% -0.5% -2.7% -2.7% 0.0% 2.0% -0.6% -0.6%

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Year Over Year Same Grade Year Over Year Same Grade Percentage GrowthPercentage Growth


French Immersion

Year 4 year olds as of December 31, this is offset by one year (i.e., this allows the use of the same formulas)K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Totals FTEs20002001 -3.5% 8.6% -7.6% 11.3% 5.7% 3.2% 21.7% -8.5% 15.9% -15.8% 29.2% -25.6% 13.0% 75.0% 5.3% 5.0%2002 -3.2% 3.1% -0.5% -7.8% 11.4% 6.9% 6.4% 14.3% -26.0% 20.0% -10.7% 19.4% -49.4% -29.9% -1.8% -1.8%2003 -1.2% 11.1% 19.2% 5.0% -9.2% 18.2% 8.7% 22.5% 28.7% -11.8% 14.7% -38.8% 45.5% -27.8% 7.9% 7.7%2004 -2.7% 13.1% 10.3% 17.6% 7.0% -14.9% 15.4% 27.6% 25.9% 32.2% -18.6% 69.4% -40.6% 46.2% 12.1% 12.2%2005 -4.0% -1.4% 13.9% 13.8% 18.5% 8.8% -11.2% -2.4% 38.9% 32.8% 25.7% -14.5% 97.4% -24.6% 10.6% 11.3%2006 2.4% 10.4% -9.5% -11.0% -9.4% -1.3% 7.1% -8.3% -3.3% 39.9% 24.9% 12.1% -22.3% 40.8% 0.9% 0.3%2007 2.4% -4.7% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 1.7% 2.0% 8.7% -9.8% -3.9% 28.7% 22.1% 17.7% -14.0% 2.3% 2.7%2008 0.1% -5.1% -2.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.9% 2.4% 2.5% 10.4% -11.4% -3.0% 26.0% 30.7% 10.0% 1.7% 2.1%2009 -5.0% -0.1% -2.3% -1.7% 1.9% 0.2% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 12.4% -8.9% -2.8% 33.8% 18.5% 2.4% 2.4%2010 -5.8% 11.3% -0.1% -1.7% -1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 2.9% 3.5% 3.4% 9.4% -8.2% -3.4% 22.5% 2.5% 2.0%2011 -0.6% 11.1% 5.0% 0.0% -1.1% -0.6% 2.3% 0.5% 3.3% 4.0% 2.6% 8.6% -10.1% -2.5% 2.6% 2.1%2012 -0.1% 1.1% 5.2% 3.7% 0.0% -0.6% -1.3% 2.8% 0.6% 3.9% 3.1% 2.4% 10.8% -7.3% 2.1% 2.1%2013 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.9% 2.4% 0.0% -1.4% -1.6% 3.3% 0.7% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 7.5% 1.4% 1.4%2014 -1.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0% -1.7% -1.8% 3.8% 0.5% 2.8% 3.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7%2015 -1.1% 1.8% -0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% -1.9% -2.1% 3.0% 0.5% 3.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5%2016 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.1% 3.5% 0.0% -2.2% -1.7% 2.8% 0.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.8%2017 0.3% -0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.7% 4.1% -0.1% -1.7% -1.6% 3.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9%2018 -0.2% -0.4% -0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 4.3% 4.7% 0.0% -1.6% -1.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9%2019 -0.9% 0.3% -0.2% -0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 4.9% 3.7% 0.0% -2.0% -1.4% 0.6% 0.6%2020 -0.7% 1.3% 0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 3.9% 3.5% 0.0% -1.5% 0.6% 0.5%

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In ConclusionIn Conclusion

While projections are designed to be as While projections are designed to be as accurate as possible, they remain accurate as possible, they remain projections; projections;

As such, As such, they willthey will vary from actual vary from actual enrolments. enrolments.

Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Greater Victoria Long Term Enrolment...

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Transcript of Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Greater Victoria Long Term Enrolment...