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Ecobalance giurco
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Mineral & Energy Futures
Mineral & Energy Futures:
Implications for Technology and Policy in Producing and Consuming CountriesAssociate Professor Damien Giurco – Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, SydneyDr Daniel Franks – Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, SMI, University of Queensland, AustraliaAssociate Professor Ben McLellan – Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, JapanDr Timothy Prior – Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Ecobalance, Japan, 21‐23 November 2012
Mineral & Energy Futures
+Mineral Futures Collaboration Cluster
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Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Illustrative meta‐analysis of mineral & energy futures
How are futures representedin minerals and energy?‐With respect to production,technology, regions?
How do perspectivesdiffer between producingand consuming countries?
Where are the gaps?‐ How does this affect technology and policy?
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+Resource Futures: Minerals
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Time and scale
UpstreamProductionRoadmap
DownstreamSectoralRoadmaps
QuantitativeScenarios
DeliberativeVision
ProductionForecasts
ScenarioPlausibleNarratives
Backcasting(expert)
DemandForecasts
RecyclingRates
ResourceEstimates
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Mineral & Energy Futures
+Resource Futures: Minerals
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Time and scale
UpstreamProductionRoadmap
DownstreamSectoralRoadmaps
QuantitativeScenarios
DeliberativeVision
ProductionForecasts
ScenarioPlausibleNarratives
Backcasting(expert)
DemandForecasts
RecyclingRates
ResourceEstimates
MFA LiteratureMFA Literature
Resource Security
Rebased Globalism
Green Trade Alliance
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+Resource Futures: Energy
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Time and scale
UpstreamProductionRoadmap
DownstreamSectoralRoadmaps
QuantitativeScenarios
DeliberativeVision
ProductionForecasts
ScenarioPlausibleNarratives
Backcasting(expert)
DemandForecasts
RecyclingRates
ResourceEstimates
Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior
Mineral & Energy Futures
+Key differences for energy futures over minerals
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Time and scale
UpstreamProductionRoadmap
DownstreamSectoralRoadmaps
QuantitativeScenarios
DeliberativeVision
ProductionForecasts
ScenarioPlausibleNarratives
Backcasting(expert)
DemandForecasts
RecyclingForecasts
ResourceEstimates
Longer time horizon for
energy forecasts
More normative futures for energy
More sophisticated demand
Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior
More considerations of social impacts of new technology deployment
Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Technology Futures: minerals and energy
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New technology development occurs for both‒ Energy: Carbon Capture and Storage, concentrating solar
‒ Mining: in‐situ, deep sea, automated trucks and trains
Technological considerations can dominate‒ i.e. how do we get the technology working
‒ Social impacts upon deployment in a community were historically often overlooked in design. Recent works include Ashworth (2011) – energy/CCS, Franks, Cohen, McLellan, Brereton (2010) – minerals
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+ Social licence in design
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+Regional Futures
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Gov Policy or deliberative
Time horizon
Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Lingering tensions: weak or strong sustainability?
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Mining with less water and energy footprintdoes not deliver sustainability
A missing focus for questions of mining sustainability are ultimate uses and use rates of metals, mining disconnected from dematerialisation literature
Energy more readily connects supply and efficient use via integrated resources planning
Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior
Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Lingering tensions: weak or strong sustainability?
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Mining with less water and energy footprintdoes not deliver sustainability
A missing focus for questions of mining sustainability are ultimate uses and use rates of metals, mining disconnected from dematerialisation literature
Energy more readily connects supply and efficient use via integrated resources planning
Need to explore implications of these approaches for technology and policy from perspectives of producer & consumer nations
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+ Comparison of approaches
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Approach Limitations Implications for –Producers
Implications for –Consumers
Production trends Forecasts are simplistic and assume greater production delivers greater benefits
Limited assessment of environmental and social impacts of future productiontrends
Assessing supply criticality requires separate strategic assessment
Consumption trends Substitutability and disruptive technologies not well considered in roadmaps (~a little)
Little analysis of how changes to production and end use technologies will affect consumption trends
If producers adopt vertical integration and buy up mines, important to understand local social issues and role of future technology
Recycling futures Receives limited attention
Little insight into role recycling from consuming countries will play in offsetting producer demand and impact of WEEE legislation on scrap
Stewardship and ethical sourcing
Material Flow Analysis
Limited policy impact outside EU, Japan
Can highlight current and future sources of material above and below ground
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+ Producing nation: Australia
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Exports by value (iron and coal dominate resource exports)
Mineral dependent nation without National Minerals Strategy
2011 Mining = 57% exports; 8% GDP; 2% workforce
Recently introduced Product Stewardship LegislationGiurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior
Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Consuming nation 1: Japan
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Significant mining history from past centuries
Now importer of energy (e.g. Japan is biggest destination for Australian coal exports) and minerals
Developing technology to recover value from scrap stocks
Fundamental‐Law‐For Establishing a Sound Material Cycle Society
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+ Consuming nation 2: Switzerland
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Consuming country with interest in extraction and consumption
Major miners Glencore and Xstrata headquartered in Switzerland
Pursues sustainability via extended producer responsibility legislation
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Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Illustrative case of rare earth strategies
Australia(Producer)
- Maintain investment in mining sector (whilst taxing)
- long term supply of countries like Japan
- fast permit approval
Ernst & Young, Technology Minerals, the rare earths race is on, April, 2011
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Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Illustrative case of rare earth strategies
Australia(Producer)
China (Producer‐Consumer)
- Maintain investment in mining sector (whilst taxing)
- long term supply of countries like Japan
- fast permit approval
Stable supply of raw materials- export quotas
and taxes- permit limits- increasing
environmental laws
Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior
Ernst & Young, Technology Minerals, the rare earths race is on, April, 2011
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Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Illustrative case of rare earth strategies
Australia(Producer)
China (Producer‐Consumer)
Japan (Consumer)
- Maintain investment in mining sector (whilst taxing)
- long term supply of countries like Japan
- fast permit approval
Stable supply of raw materials- export quotas
and taxes- permit limits- increasing
environmental laws
Secure stable supply- funding global
exploration- loans- stockpiling- recycling- information
gathering
Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior
Ernst & Young, Technology Minerals, the rare earths race is on, April, 2011
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Mineral & Energy Futures
+ Illustrative case of rare earth strategies
Australia(Producer)
China (Producer‐Consumer)
Japan (Consumer) EU/Switzerland(Consumer)
- Maintain investment in mining sector (whilst taxing)
- long term supply of countries like Japan
- fast permit approval
Stable supply of raw materials- export quotas
and taxes- permit limits- increasing
environmental laws
Secure stable supply- funding global
exploration- loans- stockpiling- recycling- information
gathering
Limit impact ofshortages- open markets
trade policy- increase
recycling- studying
critical minerals
Giurco, Franks, McLellan, Prior
Ernst & Young, Technology Minerals, the rare earths race is on, April, 2011
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Mineral & Energy Futures
+Concluding summary
Illustrative analysis reveals underlying areas of importance and availability of information collected‐ tension between short and longer term‐ economic assessments dominate (more = better)‐ little recognition of influence of social/env pressures
Further research on coherence of strategies from producers and consumers is required. Recycling needs further attention in producing countries.
New approaches needed for integrated analyses across commodities and stakeholder perspectives as part of ethical and responsible production chains.
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+Contact
Damien GiurcoResearch DirectorInstitute for Sustainable Futures, UTSLevel 11, 235 Jones St Ultimo, NSW 2007Tel: +61 2 9514 [email protected]
+Publications
+Acknowledgement
Mineral Futures Collaboration Clusterwww.csiro.au/partnerships/mineral‐futures‐collaboration‐cluster.html
Resource Futureswww.resourcefutures.net.auwww.isf.uts.edu.au
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