ECN JHU update 20171020 - Johns Hopkins University · Reserve • Operating Reserveis extra...
Transcript of ECN JHU update 20171020 - Johns Hopkins University · Reserve • Operating Reserveis extra...
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Outline
•Background & Motivation•Reserve Modeling Framework • Types of improvements • COMPETES simulations•Results
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Challenges Arising from Wind
Source: Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems, NREL Report
Quack!
Source: CAISO
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Reserve• Operating Reserve is extra capacity (MW) needed
in case of contingency • Loss of a generator• Loss of a transmission line • Sudden change in load• Now: change in renewable energy
40
60
80
100
120
1 6 11 16 21
MW
Hour
Expected Demand
Reserve+Expected Demand
Frequency restoration (mFRR), not automatic frequency
response
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Operational Reserve1. Size / Procure
• How much do we need? • E.g., extra 30 MW on-line in every hour
2. Allocate• Who will be scheduled? • Generator B & C will each provide 15
MW3. Activate
• Who will provide the energy if actually needed?
• Deliverability in real time market
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Procurement • How much do we need?
• Often called ’reserve requirement’ • Examples
• Capacity of largest generator or transmission line
• X% of demand and Y% of renewables for …• One day• One season
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 6 11 16 21
MW
Hour
Expected DemandReserve Ex %Reserve Ex Fixed
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Allocation Who will be scheduled?
• Most US markets • Market based
• Primary• Secondary• Tertiary
• Determined in zones
• Most European markets• Long-term contracts
• Portfolio based• Unit based • Some dispatch
• Determined by country
Source: ENTSO-E
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Activation• Who will actually provide reserves if needed?
• Generators change energy output level in balancing• Contract-based• TSO can call on contracted generators to
provide reserve in real time• Market-based (US)• System operator calls on generators
selected in the day-ahead for reserve • Energy must be deliverable
• Transmission constraints might limit deliverability within and between countries
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ECN-JHU Current Research Question
What changes to market design will most enhance efficiency in procuring/allocating/activating reserve?
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Types of Improvements • Reserve requirement procurement periodo Seasonal
§ Current practice, four seasonal periods assessedo Enhancement: Daily
§ Requirement determined daily • Allocation typeo Contract-based
§ Current practice§ Bi-lateral contracts between TSO and generators
o Enhancement: Market-based§ Procured through co-optimization with energy market
• Amount of coordinationo Independently determined, current practice o Enhancement: Northwest Europe coordinates
Example requirement:3% of demand and 5% of renewable generation
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Efficiency of Reserve
• Each axis shows a different improvement to reserve
• Increasing complexity and efficiency moving away from origin
• Star = hypothetical ideal
• Dot = worst case
Reserve Requirement
CoordinationDA & BalancingNo Coordination
Seasonal
Daily
Increasing complexity, efficiency à Thanks to Qingyu Xu
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COMPETES Network • 33 node pan-European network• Transmission mimics integrated EU
network with capacity limited by NTC• Future generation +
potential energy storage
• Renewable scenario based on ENSTO-E 2030 Vision 4 of “European Green Revolution”
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Model Formulation: Unit Commitment
•Min Operating Cost• Subject to• Generator min & max capacity• Ramp limits• Min up & down times• Transmission line capacity & flow (Net
Transfer Capacity)• Startup & no-load binary constraints /
relaxed formulation
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Operational Markets• Day Ahead• Schedules generation for the following day• Inputs: bids & offers, forecast for load and wind • Outputs: prices, schedule (on/off), dispatch• à Reserve allocation phase
• Balancing • Updates schedule to reflect new information• Inputs: new bids & offers, updated forecast• Outputs: prices, fast start schedule, dispatch• à Reserve activation phase
• Was the right amount procured?• Was it allocated to those who could deliver it?
, reserve sizing
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Simulations & Sensitivity Analysis• Simulations• Simulated one day-ahead forecast• Followed by 5 real-time ”actual” wind
realizations• Results show mean of 5 simulations • Error bars show minimum and
maximum deviations • Added an extra coordination
component• Due to results found by K. van den
Bergh in [4], we consider coordination in balancing alone with no coordination in day-ahead
K. van den Bergh, [4]
Day-Ahead
Bal. 1
Bal. 2
Bal. 5Bal. 3
Bal. 4
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Efficiency of Reserve
• Each axis shows a different improvement to reserve
• Increasing complexity and efficiency moving away from origin
• Star = hypothetical ideal
• Dot = worst case
Seasonal
Daily
Coordination
Rese
rve
Requ
irem
ent
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Operating Costs• Example results comparing • Star, ‘ideal case’ (DMC)
• Reserve size based on daily average• Market-based allocation• Coordination in day-ahead and balancing
• Rectangle (DMN)• Reserve size based on daily average• Market-based allocation• No coordination
+54.9%54.0 55.6
0.32-0.290%
+59.3%
EU
NL0%
54.9% =DMNopcosts − DMCopcost
DMCopcost
Deviation of minimum scenario
Deviation of maximum scenario
54.9%:20% load shedding80% generation deviations
Seasonal
Daily
Coordination
Rese
rve
Requ
irem
ent
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Results – operating cost% deviations from ‘ideal’ case without load shedding
Seasonal
Daily
Coordination
Rese
rve
Requ
irem
ent
30.9 33.0 -0.21 0.51 -0.23 0.49+0.12% +0.11%+32.1%
+40.9%39.9 41.7 -0.30 0.44
+0.05%0.37-0.33
EU
NL
27.7 31.4
+29.1%
-0.48 2.50 -0.72 1.62
34.3 37.9 -0.20 0.91 -0.66 0.95
+0.67% -0.04%
+0.28%+35.7%
0%
0%
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Daily
Coordination
Rese
rve
Requ
irem
ent
Seasonal
CZE, DEW, FRA, GER, ITA, POR, SKO, SPA, SWE, SWI, NOR, BLK
DEN, POL, UKI
NED, BLTBEL, FIN,
IRE -
-
Lowest Cost Solution by CountryWhere is each country is better off?
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Results – wind curtailed% deviations from ‘ideal’ case, NL data in MWh
Seasonal
Daily
Coordination
Rese
rve
Requ
irem
ent
1.1 19 -8.2 9.1 -5.3 11.4-3.5% -0.6%+6.2%
+6.6%1.7 20 -7.7 10
-2.7%13-4.8
EU
NL
448 8350
3885 MWh
448 8350
0 MWh 0 MWh
0 MWh3875 MWh
0%
0 MWh
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Reserves: Source FuelAll market based simulations showed similar percentages
Storageprod.59%
Coal
2% Lignite1%
Res-e
1%
Nuclear0%
Oil
0%
Wind
0% Sun
0%
Gas
37%
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Contracted Reserve CasesReserve Requirement
CoordinationBalancingNo Coordination
Seasonal
Daily
+40.9%
+0.17%+32.1%
0%
+110% +30.0%
• All contracted cases showed higher costso Some cases were
double the cost of the market-based cases§ Some countries faced
significant load shedding
§ Wide difference in operating costs country by country
• Fewer MWh of wind curtailment than ‘ideal’ case when reserves were coordinated in balancing o Additional plants online
meant lower curtailment
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ConclusionsThree Suggested Improvements: 1. Difference between daily vs.
seasonal requirement is minimal
2. Coordination in balancing achieves almost all benefit, or can produce better solution
3. Naïve contracts for reserves produce least efficient solution compared to market• Coordination in reserve
allocation & balancing might make up for higher costs
Other ObservationsØMore coordination may
lead to more wind curtailment• Possibly due to location of
reserve within country• Consideration of forecast
uncertainty and wind farm location can reduce curtailment
ØStorage can provide a significant amount of reserve
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References [1] S. Kasina, S. Wogrin, and B.F. Hobbs, “A comparison of
unit commitment approximations for generation production costing,” Working Paper, Johns Hopkins University, 2014.
[2] Ö. Özdemir, F. Munoz, J. Ho, and B.F. Hobbs, “Economic Analysis of Transmission with Demand Response and Quadratic Losses by Successive LP,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2427799, in press.
[3] J. Cochran, M. Miller, O. Zinaman, M. Milligan, D. Arent, B. Palmintier, M. O’Malley, S. Mueller, E. Lannoye, A. Tuohy, B. Kujala, M. Sommer, H. Holttinen, J. Kiviluoma, and S. K. Soonee, “Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems,” Golden, CO, 2014.
[4] K. van den Bergh, R. B. Hytowitz, K. Bruninx, E. Delarue, W. D'haeseleer, and B.F. Hobbs, "Benefits of coordinating sizing, allocation and activation of reserves among market zones," Electric Power Systems Research, 143: 140–148, Feb. 2017.
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Backup slides
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Results – operating cost% deviations from ‘ideal’ case
Seasonal
Daily
Coordination
Rese
rve
Requ
irem
ent
54.3 56.1 -0.06 0.37 -0.08 0.36+0.14% +0.17%+55.4%
+54.9%54.0 55.6 -0.26 0.39
+0.04%0.32-0.29
EU
NL
57.4 61.1
+58.8%
-0.28 2.69 -0.74 1.60
58.0 61.5 -0.34 0.77 -0.66 0.95
+0.87% -0.05%
+0.14%+59.3%
0%
0%
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Generation MixTWh difference between (Seasonal/Market/No Coordination) - (Daily/Market/Coordination)←
Mor
e in
‘ide
al c
ase’
Mor
e in
S/M
/NC
case→
Seasonal
Daily
CoordinationRese
rve
Requ
irem
ent
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Net Trade (Imports)for market based simulations, (+) = fewer imports, (-) = more imports
Daily Requirement Seasonal RequirementDay-ahead & Balancing
CoordinationNo or Only Balancing
CoordinationDay-ahead & Balancing
CoordinationNo or Only Balancing
CoordinationBEL 0% 0.07% 0.06% -0.01%CZE 0% 0.15% 0.23% 0.14%DEN 0% 0.15% 0.07% 0.12%DEW 0% 0.47% 0.01% 0.64%FIN 0% 0.34% -0.05% 0.04%FRA 0% 0.16% 0.07% 0.19%GER 0% 0.03% 0.26% 0.04%IRE 0% 0.20% 0.26% 0.19%ITA 0% -0.05% -0.09% -0.02%NED 0% 1.27% -0.08% 1.90%POL 0% -0.06% -0.04% -0.08%POR 0% 0.45% 0.60% 0.65%SKO 0% 0.06% -0.58% -0.50%SPA 0% -0.21% -0.19% -0.62%SWE 0% -0.02% 0.13% 0.07%UKI 0% 0.55% -0.04% 0.55%SWI 0% 0.31% 0.29% 0.34%NOR 0% -0.40% 0.41% -0.31%BLK 0% -0.04% -0.08% -0.19%BLT 0% -0.13% -0.09% -0.14%AUS 0% 0.32% 0.09% -0.03%TotalEnergy Traded 0.15% less trade 0.07% less trade 0.15% less trade
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Reserve Requirement
05
10152025
Freq
uenc
y
Bin
Winter
010203040
Freq
uenc
y
Bin
Spring
05
10152025
6302 6708 7115 7522 7928 8335 8741 9148 9554 9961
Freq
uenc
y
Bin
Summer
0
10
20
30
Freq
uenc
y
Bin
Fall
Seasonal: 8675 MW Seasonal: 8032 MW
Seasonal: 7625 MW Seasonal: 7870 MW
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Four different scenarios (A↔D) considered
31
A B C D
Sizing - - - +
Allocation - - + +
Activation - + + +
“+” = coordinated “-” = uncoordinated
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(3) Activation of reserves (real-time)
32
Allocation, activation and net cost savings relative to scenario A.
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Conclusions1) Coordinating real-time reserve activation is always beneficial
2) Coordinating reserve sizing & allocation can lead to suboptimal
results (possibly even deteriorated) if network constraints are
neglected
3) Further research deals with including network constraints in
(deterministic) reserve sizing and allocation rules
33
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Model Formulation
binary variables
ui......
Commitment within the Netherlands
Day-Ahead
xi......
continuous variables
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Model Formulation
relaxedbinary variables
Commitment outside the Netherlands
Day-Ahead
xi......
continuous variables
ui......
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binary variables fast start units
ui......
Model Formulation
......
continuous variables
Commitment only within the Netherlands
Balancing
xi......
Fixed variables: line flows,slow units
ui......xi