ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring
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Transcript of ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring
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Slide 1 © ECMWF
ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring
Manfred Klöppel
(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)
(thanks to Vincent-Henri Peuch and Dick Dee, both ECMWF)
www.ecmwf.int
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Slide 2 © ECMWF
ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring
●ECMWF’s long-term strategy
●MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and ClimateHE-01 Tools and Information for Health Decision-Making
●ERA-CLIM (reanalysis)CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation
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Slide 3 © ECMWF
The ECMWF Strategy2011–2020
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Slide 4 © ECMWF
Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – InterimImplementationMACC-II is the third in a series of FP6 & 7 EU projects (since 2005). It is coordinated by ECMWF and the consortium comprises 36 partners from 13 countries. It runs till July 2014, when GMES operations are expected to start.
Weather services
Atmosphericenvironmental services
Long-range pollutant transport
Air quality
Dust outbreaks
Solar energy
UV radiation
Climate forcing by gases and aerosols• • • Environmental agencies
provide data & information on
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Slide 5 © ECMWF
SO2 (GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT)
NO2 (OMI, KNMI/NASA)Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS, NASA)
CO2 (GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES)
Exciting satellite observations for atmospheric composition are currently available
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Slide 6 © ECMWF
From combining observations and model forecast…
MOPITT CO (NASA)IASI CO (LATMOS/ULB)
MACC-II global system relies on ECMWF variational 4d-var scheme, assimilating a range of remote-sensing data to deliver analyses (illustrated here for Carbon Monoxide, a tracer of combustion sources).
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Slide 7 © ECMWF
… to global forecasting…
MACC-II provides daily 5-day global forecasts with a horizontal resolution of 80 km and a time resolution of 3 hours, using a “chemistry-enabled” version of ECMWF’s forecast model.
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Slide 8 © ECMWF
… to regional ensemble forecastsO3
NO2
SO2
PM10
Regional Models Global Model Observations
The global system drives the regional models providing European-scale air quality forecasts.
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Slide 9 © ECMWF
CO2 and CH4 surface flux inversions
Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition (2003-2011)
Aerosol Optical Depth
Methane
http://www.gmes-atmosphere.euRetrospective Service Provision
30 years ozone layer records
700+ users
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Slide 10 © ECMWF
European Air Quality
Global Pollution
Aerosol UV index
http://www.gmes-atmosphere.euNear-Real-Time Service Provision
Biomass burning emissions
90+ users and obsAIRve
More on MACC-II achievements in the talk by L. Wald in the late afternoon session today
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Climate monitoring by reanalysis
Re-analysis of the recent past: Global datasets for monitoring climate change
ERA-15 ERA-40 ERA-Interim ERA-20C
ERA-40: 6-hourly gridded data products from 1957-2002
ERA-Interim: From 1979 to present, monthly updates near real-time
ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project• Preparing a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th Century • Contributes to the GEO 2012-2015 work plan:
CL-01 C1 Extension and Improvement of the Climate Record
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Slide 12 © ECMWF
To prepare input observations, model data, and data assimilation systems for a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century
ERA-CLIM will deliver: • Data rescue (both in-situ and satellite)• New reanalysis products• Improved data quality• Improved data access
ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project coordinated by ECMWF
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Reanalyses
provide a complete picture of recent trends example: temperatureDeg C/decade, 1979-2001
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Slide 14 © ECMWF
Summary
●Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate
●Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century
●Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation
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Slide 15 © ECMWF
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Slide 16 © ECMWF
Summary
●Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate
●Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century
●Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation
●The FP7 ERA-CLIM project: European contribution to GEO
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Slide 17 © ECMWF