EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This...

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1 EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019

Transcript of EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This...

Page 1: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

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EC4 MeetingSeptember 12, 2019

Page 2: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• The RI Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council (EC4) was charged with developing strategies to meet GHG reduction targets below 1990 levels

10% BELOW 1990 LEVELS

by 2020

Resilient Rhode Island Act (2014)

45% BELOW 1990 LEVELS

by 2035

80% BELOW 1990 LEVELS

by 2050

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 2

Page 3: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• Completed 2015 & 2016 GHG inventoried emissions

2016 emissions = 11.02 MMTCO2e2020 Target Reached (11.7% below 1990 levels)

• The EC4 formally adopted the use of a consumption based emission accounting because this method more realistically comports with the regional nature of New England’s electric grid and is consistent with the approaches taken by neighboring states.

Update Today

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 3

Page 4: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

2016 GHG Inventoried Emissions (11.02)

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Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Targets

1990 Baseline Emissions Level (12.48)

2050 Target (2.50)

2035 Target (6.86)

2020 Target (11.23)

Page 5: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

Other includes emissions from agriculture, waste, and natural gas distribution.

RI Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

(MMTCO2e)1990 2013 2014 2015 2016

Transportation 4.97 4.59 4.25 4.09 3.94

Electricity Consumption 2.82 3.52 3.25 3.21 2.84

Residential Heating 2.37 2.27 2.34 2.46 1.84

Industrial Heating& Processes 0.81 1.24 1.14 1.12 1.14

Commercial Heating 1.15 0.91 1.13 1.00 0.86

Other 0.65 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.39

Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF)

-0.29 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 12.48 12.98 12.54 12.31 11.02

Major Sources of RI GHG

Inventoried GHG Emission Sources 2016

Transporation 36%

Electricity Consumption

26%

Residential Heating

17%

Commerical Heating

8%

Industrial Heating

& Processes10%

Other3%

RI Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

(MMTCO2e)1990 2013 2014 2015 2016

Transportation 4.97 4.59 4.25 4.09 3.94

Electricity Consumption 2.82 3.52 3.25 3.21 2.84

Residential Heating 2.37 2.27 2.34 2.46 1.84

Industrial Heating & Processes 0.81 1.24 1.14 1.12 1.14

Commercial Heating 1.15 0.91 1.13 1.00 0.86

Other 0.65 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.39

Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) -0.29 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 12.48 12.98 12.54 12.31 11.02

Page 6: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 v. 2016

Sector Change in MMTCO2e

Percent Change Trend

Transportation -1.03 -20.7% ↓

Electricity Consumption 0.02 0.7% ↑

Residential Heating -0.53 -22.4% ↓

Industrial Heating & Processes 0.33 40.7% ↑

Commercial Heating -0.29 -25.2% ↓

Other -0.26 -40.0% ↓

Total -1.46 -11.7% ↓

Other includes emissions from agriculture, waste, and natural gas distribution.

Rhode Island GHG Emissions Trends

Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2015 v. 2016

Sector Change in MMTCO2e

Percent Change Trend

Transportation -0.25 -3.7% ↓

Electricity Consumption -0.37 -11.5% ↓

Residential Heating -0.62 -25.2% ↓

Industrial Heating & Processes 0.02 1.8% ↑

Commercial Heating -0.14 -14.0% ↓

Other -0.04 -9.3% ↓

Total -1.29 -10.5% ↓

Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 v. 2016

Sector Change in MMTCO2e

Percent Change Trend

Transportation -1.03 -20.7% ↓

Electricity Consumption 0.02 0.7% ↑

Residential Heating -0.53 -22.4% ↓

Industrial Heating & Processes 0.33 40.7% ↑

Commercial Heating -0.29 -25.2% ↓

Other -0.26 -40.0% ↓

Total -1.46 -11.7% ↓

Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2015 v. 2016

Sector Change in MMTCO2e

Percent Change Trend

Transportation -0.25 -3.7% ↓

Electricity Consumption -0.37 -11.5% ↓

Residential Heating -0.62 -25.2% ↓

Industrial Heating & Processes 0.02 1.8% ↑

Commercial Heating -0.14 -14.0% ↓

Other -0.04 -9.3% ↓

Total -1.29 -10.5% ↓

Page 7: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• Transportation Sector- Highway vehicles (92%)- Aviation (7.5%) - Lubricants (0.5%)

- (i.e. petroleum based grease used in vehicles)

- Non-Road (~0.0%)- Marine & diesel off-road

• For Highway Vehicles EPA MOVES Model Used

• MOVES v SIT

MOVES Inputs (2016) SIT Inputs (Prior to 2016)

Age Distribution Fuel Consumption

Fuel Blends Vehicle Miles Traveled

Inspection Program (I/M)

Meteorology

Vehicle Population

Road Distribution

Speed Distribution

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Transportation Sector Methodology

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 7

Page 8: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

2.29

3.383.38 3.52 3.25 3.212.84

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CO

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• In 2016, largest source of GHG emissions (36%)• 3.7% ↓ in emissions 2015-

2016

• In 1990 = 4.97 MMTCO2e

• 20.7% ↓ in emissions 1990-2016

4.794.40

4.194.59

4.25 4.09 3.94

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Rhode Island Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010-2016

36%

Transportation Sector Trends

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 8

Page 9: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• Up until Year 2016, the GHG emissions associated with Electricity Consumption sector were calculated with the SIT.

• As discussed at EC4 meeting in May, we aligned our methodology with MA & CT.

• The key difference between the SIT and our new refined methodology is the accounting for Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) purchased/sold by RI retail electricity sellers.

Electricity Consumption Sector Methodology

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 9

Page 10: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

2.29

3.38 3.383.52

3.25 3.212.84

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• In 2016, second largest source of GHG emissions (26%)• 11.5% ↓ in emissions 2015-

2016

• In 1990 = 2.82 MMTCO2e

• 0.7% ↑ in emissions1990-2016

Rhode Island Electricity Consumption Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010-2016

26%

Electricity Consumption Sector Trends

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 10

Page 11: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• Rely on SIT Tool to estimate GHG emissions.

• SIT tool data is populated by the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA).– For example, in RI National Grid provides natural gas consumption data to EIA.

• CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are calculated by multiplying energy consumption by the emission factors for each fuel (natural gas, distillate fuel, kerosene, LPG).

Residential Heating Sector Methodology

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 11

Page 12: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• In 2016, third largest source of GHG emissions (17%)• 25.2% ↓ in emissions 2015-

2016

• In 1990 = 2.37 MMTCO2e

• 22.4% ↓ in emissions 1990-2016

2.242.15 2.08

2.27 2.342.46

1.84

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Rhode Island Residential Heating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010-2016

17%

Residential Heating Sector Trends

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 12

Page 13: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

0

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Transportation Energy IndustrialHeating &Processes

Agriculture ResidentialHeating

CommercialHeating

Waste

3.9 3.0 1.1 0.04 1.8 0.9 0.2

71.0 32.8 12.1 1.8 28.1 15.0 3.7

1854 1846.1

1405.5

611.8

332.1 283.7131.5M

illio

n m

etri

c to

ns o

f CO

2eRhode Island, New England, & U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2016

Rhode Island(11.02 MMTCO2e)

New England(164.34 MMTCO2e)

USA(6464.7 MMTCO2e)

ME & NH Greenhouse Gas Emissions data collected from 2015 inventories. All other New England data compiled from 2016 inventories. National Greenhouse Gas Emissions data collected from EPA. Methodologies to calculate sector totals may vary in different states.

Page 14: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• October 2019EC4 Meeting – Draft 2016 GHG Emissions Inventory

• November 2019Public Informational Session

• December 2019Final 2016 GHG Emissions Inventory

RI GHG Inventory: Next Steps

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 14

Page 15: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

Thank You!

Allison Archambault

RI Department of Environmental ManagementOffice of Air ResourcesSupervising Air Quality Specialist - Climate Change & Mobile Sources Programs

401-222-2808, x [email protected]

Page 16: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail
Page 17: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

• RI’s 1st GHG emissions inventory completed by NESCAUM (2013)• Estimated 1990 baseline• Completed 2010 inventory• Projected 2020 emissions• Primary tool: EPA’s State Inventory Tool (SIT)

• SIT is an interactive spreadsheet model that calculates sector by sector GHG emissions. • Users can pre-load default data or state-specific data

• RIDEM/Air Resources continues to estimate GHG emissions primarily using the SIT

GHG Emissions Inventory History

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 17

Page 18: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

As identified in the 2016 GHG Reduction Plan, the EC4 provided the following recommendations:

• To monitor progress using a triennial schedule of GHG reductions based on the Resilient Rhode Island GHG targets

• To develop a triennial GHG emissions inventory for Rhode Island and report on progress towards meeting Resilient Rhode Island GHG targets

• To evaluate the possibility of meeting higher targets through cost-effective measures in the triennial report

Pathways to a Successful GHG Emissions Inventory

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 18

Page 19: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

Taking a Closer Look at the Electricity Consumption Sector

• How renewable energy should be reflected in the GHG emissions inventory?

• RI’s Renewable Energy Standard (RES) requires that an increasing amount of renewable power be sold each year.

• Since the RES requires increasing amounts of RE over time, it is possible that the previous methodology would have caused an increasingly less accurate RI GHG Inventory over time.

19RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE

Page 20: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

Refining & Aligning our Methodology – Electricity Consumption Sector

• Up until now, RI used the SIT tool to capture electricity consumption-based GHG emissions.

• Now, given RI’s ambitious RES (38.5% by 2035), it’s important that we capture the associated emissions reductions in our inventory.

• Going forward, RI intends to align our inventory methodology with MA & CT which includes accounting for Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs).

• This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail electricity sellers.

20RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE

Page 21: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

Comparing Apples to Apples?

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 21

Deeper Decarbonization in the Ocean State - 2019 RI GHG

Reduction Study

DEM – GHG Emissions Inventory

Accounting Methodology Production Based Consumption Based

IPCC Report AR5 AR4

Global Warming Potential (GWP) 20-year 100-year

2016 Emissions 15.7 MMTCO2e modeled 11.02 MMTCO2e actual

Page 22: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

Methane Emissions Comparison

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 22

Deeper Decarbonization in the Ocean State - 2019 RI GHG

Reduction Study

DEM – GHG Emissions Inventory

Methane Emissions 2017 - 4.9 MMTCO2eAR5 20-Year (84 GWP)

2016 - 0.39 MMTCO2eAR4 100-Year (25 GWP)

2016 – 0.39 MMTCO2e converts to approximately 2.77 MMTCO2e when

AR5 20-Year GWP used (84 GWP) and same leakage rate as

referenced in Deeper Decarbonization Study

Page 23: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 23

Greenhouse Gases Global Warming Potential (GWP)(AR4)

Global Warming Potential (GWP) (AR5)

20-Year 100-Year 20-Year 100-YearCarbon Dioxide (CO2) 1 1 1 1

Methane (CH4) 72 25 84 28Nitrous Oxide (N20) 289 298 264 265

Global Warming Potentials – AR4 v AR5

IPCC data sources for more information: AR4 (2007) values: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html AR5 (2014) values: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

• A measure of how much heat a GHG traps in the atmosphere up to a specific time horizon relative to CO2. CO2 has a GWP of 1 because it is the reference gas.

Page 24: EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail

RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 24

Rhode Island Comparisons

Comparing total shares of GHG Emissions

Deeper Decarbonization in the Ocean State - 2019 RI GHG

Reduction Study

DEM – GHG Emissions Inventory

RI v New England - 6.71%

RI v USA 0.19% 0.17%

RI v World 0.029% 0.024%