EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This...
Transcript of EC4 Meeting September 12, 2019 - Rhode Island Department ...Energy Certificates (RECs). • This...
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EC4 MeetingSeptember 12, 2019
• The RI Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council (EC4) was charged with developing strategies to meet GHG reduction targets below 1990 levels
10% BELOW 1990 LEVELS
by 2020
Resilient Rhode Island Act (2014)
45% BELOW 1990 LEVELS
by 2035
80% BELOW 1990 LEVELS
by 2050
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 2
• Completed 2015 & 2016 GHG inventoried emissions
2016 emissions = 11.02 MMTCO2e2020 Target Reached (11.7% below 1990 levels)
• The EC4 formally adopted the use of a consumption based emission accounting because this method more realistically comports with the regional nature of New England’s electric grid and is consistent with the approaches taken by neighboring states.
Update Today
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 3
2016 GHG Inventoried Emissions (11.02)
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Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Targets
1990 Baseline Emissions Level (12.48)
2050 Target (2.50)
2035 Target (6.86)
2020 Target (11.23)
Other includes emissions from agriculture, waste, and natural gas distribution.
RI Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
(MMTCO2e)1990 2013 2014 2015 2016
Transportation 4.97 4.59 4.25 4.09 3.94
Electricity Consumption 2.82 3.52 3.25 3.21 2.84
Residential Heating 2.37 2.27 2.34 2.46 1.84
Industrial Heating& Processes 0.81 1.24 1.14 1.12 1.14
Commercial Heating 1.15 0.91 1.13 1.00 0.86
Other 0.65 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.39
Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF)
-0.29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 12.48 12.98 12.54 12.31 11.02
Major Sources of RI GHG
Inventoried GHG Emission Sources 2016
Transporation 36%
Electricity Consumption
26%
Residential Heating
17%
Commerical Heating
8%
Industrial Heating
& Processes10%
Other3%
RI Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
(MMTCO2e)1990 2013 2014 2015 2016
Transportation 4.97 4.59 4.25 4.09 3.94
Electricity Consumption 2.82 3.52 3.25 3.21 2.84
Residential Heating 2.37 2.27 2.34 2.46 1.84
Industrial Heating & Processes 0.81 1.24 1.14 1.12 1.14
Commercial Heating 1.15 0.91 1.13 1.00 0.86
Other 0.65 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.39
Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) -0.29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 12.48 12.98 12.54 12.31 11.02
Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 v. 2016
Sector Change in MMTCO2e
Percent Change Trend
Transportation -1.03 -20.7% ↓
Electricity Consumption 0.02 0.7% ↑
Residential Heating -0.53 -22.4% ↓
Industrial Heating & Processes 0.33 40.7% ↑
Commercial Heating -0.29 -25.2% ↓
Other -0.26 -40.0% ↓
Total -1.46 -11.7% ↓
Other includes emissions from agriculture, waste, and natural gas distribution.
Rhode Island GHG Emissions Trends
Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2015 v. 2016
Sector Change in MMTCO2e
Percent Change Trend
Transportation -0.25 -3.7% ↓
Electricity Consumption -0.37 -11.5% ↓
Residential Heating -0.62 -25.2% ↓
Industrial Heating & Processes 0.02 1.8% ↑
Commercial Heating -0.14 -14.0% ↓
Other -0.04 -9.3% ↓
Total -1.29 -10.5% ↓
Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 v. 2016
Sector Change in MMTCO2e
Percent Change Trend
Transportation -1.03 -20.7% ↓
Electricity Consumption 0.02 0.7% ↑
Residential Heating -0.53 -22.4% ↓
Industrial Heating & Processes 0.33 40.7% ↑
Commercial Heating -0.29 -25.2% ↓
Other -0.26 -40.0% ↓
Total -1.46 -11.7% ↓
Rhode Island Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2015 v. 2016
Sector Change in MMTCO2e
Percent Change Trend
Transportation -0.25 -3.7% ↓
Electricity Consumption -0.37 -11.5% ↓
Residential Heating -0.62 -25.2% ↓
Industrial Heating & Processes 0.02 1.8% ↑
Commercial Heating -0.14 -14.0% ↓
Other -0.04 -9.3% ↓
Total -1.29 -10.5% ↓
• Transportation Sector- Highway vehicles (92%)- Aviation (7.5%) - Lubricants (0.5%)
- (i.e. petroleum based grease used in vehicles)
- Non-Road (~0.0%)- Marine & diesel off-road
• For Highway Vehicles EPA MOVES Model Used
• MOVES v SIT
MOVES Inputs (2016) SIT Inputs (Prior to 2016)
Age Distribution Fuel Consumption
Fuel Blends Vehicle Miles Traveled
Inspection Program (I/M)
Meteorology
Vehicle Population
Road Distribution
Speed Distribution
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Transportation Sector Methodology
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 7
2.29
3.383.38 3.52 3.25 3.212.84
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• In 2016, largest source of GHG emissions (36%)• 3.7% ↓ in emissions 2015-
2016
• In 1990 = 4.97 MMTCO2e
• 20.7% ↓ in emissions 1990-2016
4.794.40
4.194.59
4.25 4.09 3.94
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Rhode Island Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010-2016
36%
Transportation Sector Trends
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 8
• Up until Year 2016, the GHG emissions associated with Electricity Consumption sector were calculated with the SIT.
• As discussed at EC4 meeting in May, we aligned our methodology with MA & CT.
• The key difference between the SIT and our new refined methodology is the accounting for Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) purchased/sold by RI retail electricity sellers.
Electricity Consumption Sector Methodology
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 9
2.29
3.38 3.383.52
3.25 3.212.84
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• In 2016, second largest source of GHG emissions (26%)• 11.5% ↓ in emissions 2015-
2016
• In 1990 = 2.82 MMTCO2e
• 0.7% ↑ in emissions1990-2016
Rhode Island Electricity Consumption Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010-2016
26%
Electricity Consumption Sector Trends
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 10
• Rely on SIT Tool to estimate GHG emissions.
• SIT tool data is populated by the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA).– For example, in RI National Grid provides natural gas consumption data to EIA.
• CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are calculated by multiplying energy consumption by the emission factors for each fuel (natural gas, distillate fuel, kerosene, LPG).
Residential Heating Sector Methodology
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 11
• In 2016, third largest source of GHG emissions (17%)• 25.2% ↓ in emissions 2015-
2016
• In 1990 = 2.37 MMTCO2e
• 22.4% ↓ in emissions 1990-2016
2.242.15 2.08
2.27 2.342.46
1.84
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Rhode Island Residential Heating Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010-2016
17%
Residential Heating Sector Trends
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 12
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Transportation Energy IndustrialHeating &Processes
Agriculture ResidentialHeating
CommercialHeating
Waste
3.9 3.0 1.1 0.04 1.8 0.9 0.2
71.0 32.8 12.1 1.8 28.1 15.0 3.7
1854 1846.1
1405.5
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332.1 283.7131.5M
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2eRhode Island, New England, & U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2016
Rhode Island(11.02 MMTCO2e)
New England(164.34 MMTCO2e)
USA(6464.7 MMTCO2e)
ME & NH Greenhouse Gas Emissions data collected from 2015 inventories. All other New England data compiled from 2016 inventories. National Greenhouse Gas Emissions data collected from EPA. Methodologies to calculate sector totals may vary in different states.
• October 2019EC4 Meeting – Draft 2016 GHG Emissions Inventory
• November 2019Public Informational Session
• December 2019Final 2016 GHG Emissions Inventory
RI GHG Inventory: Next Steps
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 14
Thank You!
Allison Archambault
RI Department of Environmental ManagementOffice of Air ResourcesSupervising Air Quality Specialist - Climate Change & Mobile Sources Programs
401-222-2808, x [email protected]
• RI’s 1st GHG emissions inventory completed by NESCAUM (2013)• Estimated 1990 baseline• Completed 2010 inventory• Projected 2020 emissions• Primary tool: EPA’s State Inventory Tool (SIT)
• SIT is an interactive spreadsheet model that calculates sector by sector GHG emissions. • Users can pre-load default data or state-specific data
• RIDEM/Air Resources continues to estimate GHG emissions primarily using the SIT
GHG Emissions Inventory History
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 17
As identified in the 2016 GHG Reduction Plan, the EC4 provided the following recommendations:
• To monitor progress using a triennial schedule of GHG reductions based on the Resilient Rhode Island GHG targets
• To develop a triennial GHG emissions inventory for Rhode Island and report on progress towards meeting Resilient Rhode Island GHG targets
• To evaluate the possibility of meeting higher targets through cost-effective measures in the triennial report
Pathways to a Successful GHG Emissions Inventory
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 18
Taking a Closer Look at the Electricity Consumption Sector
• How renewable energy should be reflected in the GHG emissions inventory?
• RI’s Renewable Energy Standard (RES) requires that an increasing amount of renewable power be sold each year.
• Since the RES requires increasing amounts of RE over time, it is possible that the previous methodology would have caused an increasingly less accurate RI GHG Inventory over time.
19RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE
Refining & Aligning our Methodology – Electricity Consumption Sector
• Up until now, RI used the SIT tool to capture electricity consumption-based GHG emissions.
• Now, given RI’s ambitious RES (38.5% by 2035), it’s important that we capture the associated emissions reductions in our inventory.
• Going forward, RI intends to align our inventory methodology with MA & CT which includes accounting for Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs).
• This will account for emission reductions from RECs purchased/sold by Rhode Island retail electricity sellers.
20RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE
Comparing Apples to Apples?
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 21
Deeper Decarbonization in the Ocean State - 2019 RI GHG
Reduction Study
DEM – GHG Emissions Inventory
Accounting Methodology Production Based Consumption Based
IPCC Report AR5 AR4
Global Warming Potential (GWP) 20-year 100-year
2016 Emissions 15.7 MMTCO2e modeled 11.02 MMTCO2e actual
Methane Emissions Comparison
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 22
Deeper Decarbonization in the Ocean State - 2019 RI GHG
Reduction Study
DEM – GHG Emissions Inventory
Methane Emissions 2017 - 4.9 MMTCO2eAR5 20-Year (84 GWP)
2016 - 0.39 MMTCO2eAR4 100-Year (25 GWP)
2016 – 0.39 MMTCO2e converts to approximately 2.77 MMTCO2e when
AR5 20-Year GWP used (84 GWP) and same leakage rate as
referenced in Deeper Decarbonization Study
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 23
Greenhouse Gases Global Warming Potential (GWP)(AR4)
Global Warming Potential (GWP) (AR5)
20-Year 100-Year 20-Year 100-YearCarbon Dioxide (CO2) 1 1 1 1
Methane (CH4) 72 25 84 28Nitrous Oxide (N20) 289 298 264 265
Global Warming Potentials – AR4 v AR5
IPCC data sources for more information: AR4 (2007) values: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html AR5 (2014) values: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf
• A measure of how much heat a GHG traps in the atmosphere up to a specific time horizon relative to CO2. CO2 has a GWP of 1 because it is the reference gas.
RHODE ISLAND’S 2016 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY UPDATE 24
Rhode Island Comparisons
Comparing total shares of GHG Emissions
Deeper Decarbonization in the Ocean State - 2019 RI GHG
Reduction Study
DEM – GHG Emissions Inventory
RI v New England - 6.71%
RI v USA 0.19% 0.17%
RI v World 0.029% 0.024%