EC Research in the field of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation

(an update)

Wolfram SchrimpfDeputy Head of Unit

Climate Change & Natural Hazards UnitDirectorate-General for Research & Innovation

European Commission

5th EIONET workshop on climate change vulnerabilityimpacts and adaptationCopenhagen, EEA, 30 June 2011

FP7 research supports the following climate change-related priorities:

• Understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impacts

• Providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, costs and benefits of different policy options for mitigation and adaptation

• Improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate-friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future

• Focused on four main thematic areas:– Environment (total budget € 1.89 billion) – Energy (total budget € 2.35 billion)– Transport (total budget € 4.16 billion)– Space and Global Monitoring for Environment and

Security (GMES) (total budget € 1.43 billion)

DESIGN OFPOLICY

POLICYDEVELOPMENT

POLICYIMPLEMENTATION

POLICYREVIEW

RESEARCH,SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS,POLICY INTEGRATION

Establishing links with ‘science-users’

Water

Soil

Nature

Air

Biodiversity

Ecosystem

Impacts transpire gradually from the environment into the economies and society

An integrated approach

UNDERSTANDING, IMPACTS

Carbo-Extreme (The terrestrial Carbon cycle under Climate Variability and Extremes : a Pan-European synthesis)

• EC funding: EUR 3.3 million, CP, 27 partners• Duration: 48 months (end date: June 2013)• Co-ordinator: Max Planck Institute for Biochemistry, Jena , Germany• Major scientific objectives include:

- Improve our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to climate variability and extreme events

- Represent and apply this knowledge over Europe with predictive terrestrial carbon cycle modelling - Interpret the model predictions in terms of vulnerability of the terrestrial – in particular soil – carbon pools

under different scenarios and give advice to the European Commission and other stakeholders to support the development and implementation of climate, soil and ecosystem protection policies

• Web site: http://www.carbo-extreme.eu/

MedSeA (Mediterranean Sea Acidification in a changing climate)

• EC funding: EUR 3.4 million, CP, 16 partners• Duration: 36 months (01/02/2011)• Co-ordinator: Universitat Autonoma de

Barcelona, Spain• Major activities of MedSeA include:

- identify where the impacts of acidification on Mediterranean waters will be more significant- generate new observational and experimental data on Mediterranean organism and ecosystem- provide best estimates and related uncertainties of future changes in Mediterranean Sea- combine scientific and socio-economic analyses

• International partners from Israel, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia

• Web-site: http://medsea-project.eu/

MEECE (Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment)

• EC funding: EUR 6.5 million, 23 partners• Duration: 48 months (01/09/2008)• Co-ordinator: Plymouth Marine Laboratory UK. • Major activities of MEECE include:

– Improve the knowledge base on marine ecosystems and the way they are impacted by the many driving forces, either anthropogenic or natural.

– Provide input to governmental and non-governmental actors in the development of innovative tools and strategies for the rebuilding degraded marine ecosystems, protection and the sustainable use of the sea and its resources, in the perspective of the ecosystem approach.

– Improve the knowledge base for protection and management scenarios aimed at reconciling the interests of the many economic groups benefiting from the marine resource (including coastal).

– Support to EU Marine Strategy (long term ecological objectives), the EU Maritime Policy and the EU Common Fisheries Policy (ecosystem approach to the management of marine resources).

• Web-site: http://www.meece.eu

2050 21001960 2000Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… 2050 21001960 2000Evaluated Hindcast Forecast………

ROBIN (Role Of Biodiversity In climate change mitigatioN)

• EC funding: EUR 7 million, CP-SICA, 12 partners• Duration: 48 months (foreseen to start 01/11/2011)• Co-ordinator: NATURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH COUNCIL, UK• Major activities of ROBIN include:

– Quantify the role of biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems in South and Mesoamerica in mitigating climate change;

– Quantify local and regional interactions between biodiversity, land use and climate change mitigation potential and the delivery of other key ecosystem services;

– Evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services under climate change;

– Evaluate the effects of current climate change mitigation policies and actions on ecological and socio-economic conditions;

– Analyse the impacts of alternative land-use scenarios (and other mitigation options) aimed at maximising climate mitigation potential while minimising loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services and avoiding undesirable ecological and socio-economic effects;

– Provide guidance on land-use planning and other climate change mitigation options such as low carbon strategies and bio-fuel production.

• International partners from Mexico, Brazil, Bolivia and Guyana• Web-site: website to come within first 3 months of the project

CATALYST (Capacity development for hazard risk reduction and adaptation)

• EC funding: EUR 843,000, Coordinating Action, 7 partners• Duration: 24 months (01/10/2011)• Co-ordinator: SeeConsult GmbH, Germany• Major activities of CATALYST include:

-Bring together scientists, stakeholders and networks to identify and share the best of knowledge, know-how and practices related to natural hazard and disaster risk reduction, including adaptation- identify gaps in current practises and reinforce existing EU and international network capacity

IMPACT2C (Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming)

• EC funding: max EUR 6.5 million (under negotiation), CP-IP, 29 partners• Duration: 48 months • Co-ordinator: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Germany• Major scientific objectives include:

- Provide detailed ensemble based climate change scenarios, plus statistics and derived indices, tailored to the needs of various sectors, for the time slice in which the global temperature is simulated to be of 2°C above pre industrial level;

- Provide a detailed assessment of risks, vulnerabilities, impacts and associated costs for a broad range of sectors against the background of socio economic scenarios consistent with development paths aimed at limiting global warming to 2°C;

- Develop an optimal mix of response strategies accounting for the regional differences in adaptive capacities, distinguishing between those that can be accommodated autonomously and those that require additional policy interventions.

SECTORS

Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins: reducing uncertainty and quantifying risk through an integrated monitoring and modelling system (CLIMB)

Water availability and security in Southern Europe

and the Mediterranean (WASSERMed)

Climate change, hydro-conflicts and human resources (CLICO)

A critical mass of 44 institutions for an overall EC contribution of more than 9 M€: 29 institutions from EU (1 AT, 1 CY, 9 DE, 3 ES, 3 FR, 1 GR, 8 IT, 3 UK) - 5 institutions from S&T countries (1 CH, 2 IL, 1 NO, 1 TR) and 10 international institutions (1 CA, 3 EG, 1 ET, 1 JO, 2 PS, 2 TN)

CLIMB / WASSERMed / CLICO: CLIWASEC (Climate-Water-Security) Cluster of three projects resulting from a coordinated call of the Environment and Social Sciences and Humanities Programmes

Pictures: CLICO leaflet

Clustering CC impacts on water and security

DEWFORA (Improved drought early warning and forecasting to strengthen preparedness and adaptation to droughts in Africa)

• EC funding: EUR 3.5 million, CP-SICA, 19 partners• Duration: 36 months (01/01/2011)• Co-ordinator: Deltares, the Netherlands• Major activities of DEWFORA include:

- Assessment of existing drought monitoring and forecasting capacities, mitigation and adaptation practices in Africa - Development of drought indicators related to drought hazard, vulnerability and risk and the influence of climate change

- Analysis of drought forecasting at different temporal and geographical scales- Enhanced drought early warning for better decision making and preparedness in Africa- Interaction with stakeholders and dissemination

• International partners from Botswana, Egypt, Kenya, Mozambique, South-Africa, Sudan

Web site:http:www.dewfora.net

DROUGHT-R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing)

• EC funding: EUR 3.4 million, CP, 9 partners• Duration: 36 months (01/10/2011)• Co-ordinator: University of Wageningen, the Netherlands• Major activities of DROUGHT-R&SPI include:

- Better understanding of drought as a natural hazard, identification of sensitive regions - Development of case studies to understand past drought events, identify best practices and possible Disaster Risk Reduction responses

- Improved knowledge on links between drought indicators and impacts in different geo-climatic regions in Europe- Science-policy dialogue, information sharing and knowledge dissemination- Development of policy recommendations to support the 2nd WFD river basin management plan (2015-2021)

EU Cultural Heritage / PPP-EeB"Energy efficient Buildings"

Aims to decrease energy consumption and reduce CO2 emissions of buildings across Europe through innovative technologies, building and district concepts.

Individual historic buildings (castles, churches and mansions)

Groups of buildings

3ENCULT (FP7-EeB) Efficient ENergy for EU Cultural Heritage

Aims to develop solutions for improving the energy efficiency of historic buildings in urban areas

• Tools for the diagnosis

• Passive and active retrofit solutions

• Monitoring and control devices

Duration: 42 months

11 European Countries

Start Date: 1st October 2010

Project Coordinator: EURAC (IT)

Project Web Site: http://www.3encult.eu

Healthy Futures (Health, environmental change and adaptive capacity: mapping, examining and anticipating future risks of water-related vector-borne diseases in eastern Africa)

• EC funding: EUR 3.3 million, CP-SICA, 15 partners• Duration: 48 months (01/01/2011)• Co-ordinator: THE PROVOST FELLOWS & SCHOLARS OF THE COLLEGE OF

THE HOLY AND UNDIVIDED TRINITY OF QUEEN ELIZABETH NEAR DUBLIN• Major activities of Healthy Futures include:

-Database construction with socio-economic, land use, climate and diseases data from eastern Africa-Vulnerability mapping in eastern Africa-Disease transmission relationship and dynamic modeling for Malaria, Rift Valley Fever and Schistosomiasis-Development of decision support tools-Dissemination and knowledge transfer

• International partners from Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, South-Africa

Work Programme 2012Cooperation Theme 6 Environment

(including climate change)

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.1 Coping with climate change

Overall aim• To create a more effective interface between climate change knowledge, social

and economic systems and the policy-making process

In particular, the call will explore:• The key knowledge gaps in climate science that may allow reliable seasonal-to-

decadal predictions, paving the way to the future development of climate services• The economic opportunities the costs and the impacts associated to the development of

a low carbon, resource efficient and climate resilient society and economy, by:– Improving the energy-economy-climate modelling tools for assessing costs and

impacts of mitigation pathways– Improving our capability of assessing the full costs and benefits of adaptation

strategies– Exploring the best mix of economic and non-economic instruments that may

complement the EU Emission Trading System in order to reach the 2050 GHG reduction targets

• The opportunities, risks, feasibility and policy implications of geo-engineering

Indicative budget: 55 M€

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.1 Coping with climate change

ENV.2012.6.1-1 Seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions towards climate services

Goals:• The improvement of seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions at regional and

local scale to satisfy the needs and requirements of various stakeholders and economic sectors at European level, in view of future climate services.

Proposals should address:• Key problems and uncertainties to advance our understanding of critical

processes in the climate system at different scales • It should take into account trends, feedbacks, teleconnections and threshold

levels of the earth climate system or its compartments; should make use of existing climate information and observations and may conduct field experiments where necessary to close knowledge gaps

• Proposals may focus on specific knowledge gaps which undermine short term climate predictions and should demonstrate the degree by which they will contribute to the improvement of the reliability, precision and accuracy of short term climate predictions at various scales

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.1 Coping with climate change ENV.2012.6.1-1 (cont.)

Expected impact:• More reliable seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions• Improved preparedness and resilience of society to changing climate conditions

and high risk patterns from seasons to years ahead• Reduced costs of emergency interventions • Better market preparation, higher business continuity (e.g. agriculture,

transport)• European contribution to the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services• New business opportunities for SMEs

Additional information:• Collaborative Project • Two-stage evaluation. One or more proposals can be selected• Projects linked through a coordination mechanism defined during the

negotiation stage• Cooperation with international initiatives and non-EU partner is encouraged• Max. EU contribution per project <9 M€

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.1 Coping with climate change

ENV.2012.6.1-3 Strategies, costs and impacts of adaptation to climate change

Goals:• Building of a comprehensive knowledge base to identify appropriate adaptation

options, to assess their full costs and to support the development of medium and long-term adaptation strategies at national, regional and local scales

Proposals should address (not exhaustive):• Development of methods and tools to assess climate impacts, vulnerability,

risks.• Bottom-up assessments of full economic costs and benefits at sector level;

aggregation to EU and national level • Inter-linkages of adaptation policies with other policies• International cooperation• Participation of stakeholders

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.1 Coping with climate change

ENV.2012.6.1-3 (cont.)

Expected impact:• Enlargement of the databases of socio-economic data related to climate change

impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (input to the Clearing House Mechanism)• Better quantification of the social and economic costs and benefits for the

sectors and policy areas mentioned in the Adaptation White Paper• Improved integration of adaptation research into decision making,

mainstreaming adaptation in sectoral EU policies

Additional information:• Collaborative Project • Two-stage evaluation. One or more proposals can be selected• Projects linked through a coordination mechanism defined during the

negotiation stage• Max. EU contribution per project <6 M€

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.4 Protecting citizens from environmental hazards

Overall aim• To develop innovative knowledge and applicable tools aiming at risk reduction

from environmental hazards, including extreme and sudden large catastrophic events, as well as noxious elements present in the environment that may affect human health

In particular, the call will explore:• How to improve the resilience of societies to major catastrophic events

through new risk-management partnerships• The establishment of long-term monitoring experiments in geologically active

zones, as European contribution to the international “Supersite” initiative• How to integrate large amounts of environmental exposure and human

health data – the concept of “exposome”

Indicative budget: 42 M€

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.4 Protecting citizens from environmental hazards

ENV.2012.6.4-1 Improving the resilience of society to catastrophic natural hazards through new risk-management partnerships

Goals:• To strengthen the economic and societal resilience to potential

catastrophic disasters and to improve preparedness, prevention and mitigation through more appropriate risk assessment and new management schemes.

Proposals should address:• For key representative geological and/or hydro-meteorological hazards,

the development of new probabilistic hazards and risk scenarios and improve the methodologies for pan-European risk assessment and for estimating disaster impacts

• New ways of risk governance and management responses: there is the need to improve or redefine the respective roles or possible forms of partnerships between the private sector including the (re)insurance and finance sectors, the relevant authorities and stakeholders.

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.4 Protecting citizens from environmental hazards

ENV.2012.6.4-1 (cont.)

Expected impact:• Contribution to a new pan-European harmonised risk assessment scheme• Elaboration of a new risk management governance approach• Support to EU relevant policies and to the UN Disaster Risk Reduction Hyogo

framework for action. • Reduction of risks of major economic losses through innovative non-structural

mitigation measures and new public-private partnerships on financial and insurance schemes

Additional information:• Collaborative Project • Two-stage evaluation. One or more proposals can be selected• Projects linked through a coordination mechanism defined during the

negotiation stage• Max. EU contribution per project <6 M€

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.4 Protecting citizens from environmental hazardsENV.2012.6.4-2

Long-term monitoring experiment in geologically active regions of Europe prone to natural hazards: the Supersite concept

Goals:• Long-term monitoring and study of European land reference sites in high-risk

seismic and volcanic areas to provide a better scientific understanding of the occurrence of those natural hazards, contributing to the international ‘Supersite’ initiative.

Proposals should address:• Select few core sites in Europe as focal points for large geographical regions,

linking together observations and end users in the framework of the risk management cycle

• Develop and demonstrate the next generation of geo-hazards monitoring/observing systems

• Establish comprehensive natural hazards observatories in collaboration with the relevant industrial sectors and SME's.

• To run a monitoring pilot phase as a European supersite demonstrator.

Work Programme 2012

Challenge 6.4 Protecting citizens from environmental hazards

ENV.2012.6.4-2 (cont.)

Expected impact:• Increased European technical know-how for the monitoring of geological

disasters and contribution to the development of the relevant European industrial sector

• Improved use of observations and related information to inform policies, decisions and actions associated with disaster preparedness and mitigation.

• Improved access to observations and related information to facilitate warning, response and recovery to disasters.

• Increased communication and coordination between national, regional and global communities in support of disaster risk reduction

• Contribute with other ‘Supersites’ to GEOSS and to the GEO 2012-15 work plan

Additional information:• Collaborative Project • Two-stage evaluation, One or more proposals can be selected• Projects linked through a coordination mechanism defined during the

negotiation stage• Max. EU contribution per project <6 M€, EU contribution to SME >15%

Further information

• General information on environmental researchhttp://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.htm

• CORDIShttp: //cordis.europa.eu/fp7/environment/home_en.html

• Participants portalhttp: //ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/page/home