Inception Phase: East and Southern

Africa

Presentation by Polly Ericksen

CRP on Drylands Systems Launch Meeting

Amman, Jordan

Steps in ESA

1. Characterization

2. Inception workshop:

hypotheses and outcome

pathways

3. Gradients?

Characterization SRT Sites

500 0 500 1000 Kilometers

N

Rainfall (mm)<300

300 - 600

600 - 900

900 - 1200

1200 - 1500

1500 - 2100

>2100

SRT3 - Satellite Site

SRT3 - Action site

SRT2 - Satellite Site

SRT2 - Action Site

Data Source: ILRI, Vrieling et al. 2012

Rainfall Length of Growing Season

Characterization SRT 2Production system and rainfall (CV)

SRT2 Action Site SRT2 Satellite Site

Climate Rainfall (mm) 200 - 1600 460 - 1550

Temperature

LGP (days) <90 90-290

LandscapeSoils

Calcaric Regosols (32%)

Calcic Cambisols (18%)

Land cover Herbaceous cover (48%), sparse shurb (44%)

Herbaceous cover (60%), cultivated and natural vegetation (21%)

Production system

Livestock only system (90%), rainfed crop/livestock system (2%)

Livestock only system (40%), rainfed crop/livestock system (23%)

Socio-economic

Human density (sq km)

9.4 54

Goat density (sq km)

4 24

Sheep density (sq km)

54 209

Cattle density (sq km)

7 25

500 0 500 1000 Kilometers

N

Production system11. Agro-pastoral12. Pastoral13. Arid pastoral-oases

Ranfall (cv)<33>33

SRT2 - Satellite Site

SRT2 - Action Site

Data source: Sere and Steinfeld, ILRI IFPRI 2012 and Phil Thornton

Component Examples of Possible IndicatorsAdaptive capacity Socio-demographic profile and

human capitalDependency ratio ((<15 yrs + ≥ 65 yrs)/ 19 to 64 yrs)Percent of female-headed householdsPercent of households where head of household has not attended schoolLiteracy and level of education

Security of access and entitlements/ political capital

EquityRepresentation of women in local politicsGood governance criteria

Institutional/governance dimensions of adaptive capacity

Institutional diversity, overlap and redundancyInstitutional memory and continuityInstitutional linkagesScope for self-organization

Livelihood Percent of households with family member working in a different communityPercent of households dependent solely on agriculture as a source of incomeHousehold physical, financial and natural capitalAverage Agricultural Livelihood Diversification Index

Social and knowledge networks Average Receive:Give ratio Average Borrow:Lend Money ratio Percent of households that have not gone to their localgovernment for assistance in the past 12 monthsMobile phone network coverageAvailability of market information

Key Hypotheses SRT 21. Attempts to reduce vulnerabiltyare undermined by a

limited understanding of how many people are vulnerable,

and to what extent, in different dryland systems.

2. Low political will to develop dry lands and ineffective

governance systems result in increased vulnerability to

shocks.

3. Despite strong growth in demand for livestock in both

domestic and international markets, the productivity of

many smaller pastoralists in the drylands is declining.

4. The productivity of smaller pastoralists is further

undermined by a lack of investment in markets for other

livestock-related products.

5. Growing and urbanizing populations in the drylands

depend on non-pastoral economic activities.

Key Hypotheses SRT 31. Agricultural intensification can only contribute substantially

to reducing household poverty and food security with

sufficient assets and agroecological potential.

2. It is possible to increase food production in a more

sustainable way, improve food and nutritional security and

increase agro-ecosystem resilience, all at the same time.

3. System characteristics can be identified that quantify the

potential of subsistence systems to intensify.

4. Intensification interventions can be combined with better

natural resource management practices in order to enhance

system sustainability without affecting productivity.

5. Improved links to markets will lead to sustainable

intensification on farms with access to sufficient land and

water resource.

Alternative Framework

RV- IP Continuum

Intensification Potential

Reducing Vulnerability

RV --- IP

Vulnerability Intensification

Emergency Response

Risk

Intensification

Vulnerability

Resilience

Diversification

SPA

CE

TIME

Concepts of Drylands Development