East Timor: The journey from political violence to personal security (2008-present)
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Transcript of East Timor: The journey from political violence to personal security (2008-present)
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Juana de CatheuGovernance and security adviser @ Development Results.Overseas Development Institute27 January 2015
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1. Background from the independence struggle to civil
conflict
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2. Security progress, 2009-14
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2. Security progress, 2013-14
Source: The Asia Foundation and Belun, 2014
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3. Security progress, 2014
Source: The Asia Foundation and Belun, 2014
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“No one internationally believed that giving each IDP USD 4,000 would work, but it did. IDP camps closed inside of two years.”--Advisor in the Ministry of Finance
«Politicians are realising it is better
to work together. It is better than
than dividing the country, which
would bring us more conflict »
−A religious leader, Bacau district
« The whole UN intervention was a process fo legitimisation of Timor as a state and as a people… The UN presence has made East Timor a country.”—A Timorese professor
4. Drivers of progress
« The 2006 crisis was like a big hit to remind
everyone that they had to work towards peace »
−Local NGO leader
“The biggest driver of security was
the payments to veterans after
2006”. –A donor representative
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4. Drivers of progress
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4. Drivers of progress
peacekeeping and massive, stable aid
Source: UNDPKO, 2014; CIC, 2014; OECD-DAC online data, 2014.
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4. Drivers of progressLots of carrots, and some sticks
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on World Bank, 2013.
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“The long-term threat to
establishing the rule of law and
stability outweighs the short-term
benefits of political reconciliation
without justice “
« Inequalities lead to frustrations and the latter to conflict and instability » --PM, 26 Jan. 2015
«“The very same things that have
allowed Timor-Leste’s stability could
be Timor-Leste’s undoing….The
current phenomenon is not a
development of law and order but a
development of power…they have
enough resources to buy the peace for
the moment, [but] it is not peace, it is
stability for the elite.”
Local NGO Leader in Dil
It is a very, very peaceful situation now. But behind the peace are hidden many, many things that can lead to collapse… There is a legacy of problems from 1975-1999 and also those from the recent years. There are a lot of cases where Xanana is keeping issues like this [clasps hands together].
–-Timorese security analyst
5. Challenges
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5. Challenges
1. Persistent and new/under-reported forms of violence
2. Persistent tensions in the security sector
3. Sustainability of two drivers (Xanana’s leadership and “buying the peace”)
4. Growing expectations, finite oil and gas reserves
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« Timorese Flee as Militas Gain
Upper Hand. UN Says a Quarter
Have Fled » (1999)
I want to serve in 2015 with energy and passion (PM, 31 Dec. 2014)
« Indonesia Talks of Leaving Timor,
and Both Sides Are Nervous »
(1999)
« Inequalities lead to frustrations and the latter to conflict and instability » (PM, 26 Jan. 2015)
« In Huge, Model Vote, East
Timorese Choose Their Future »
(1999)
«24 Rebel Plotters Sentenced » (2008)
« Elections to be proud of » (President Ramos-Horta, 16 April 2012)
«Timor-Leste: Chronic Malnutrition Among World’s Highest » (2011)
Conclusion
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Thank [email protected]