FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

East & South Africa Regional Expert

Meeting

Climate Change & Renewable

Energy Deployment

FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIAMINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT ,FOREST & Climate Change

17-18 March 2016

• General• Climate Change & its Implications in Ethiopia

• Ethiopian INDC• What it contains

• How to be implemented

• Progress so far

Content

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIADrought and food insecurity

Rain fed agricultural activities of the people are frequently

affected by rainfall distortion in amount and/or pattern and as

a result food shortage and famine is a prominent feature

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

• Drought and food insecurity

• Floods

• Health problems

• Loss of Biodiversity

• Resource use conflicts

Major Impacts

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

1975

19851984

1978

Drought

5

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

1993 1994

2001 2002

6

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

2005 2006

7

FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIAENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AUTHORITYETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Flood affected areas in Ethiopia as of August 23, 2006 (WFP)

Flood

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

1959 1960

1978 1983

9

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

1994 1995

1996 1997

1

0

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

2004 2005

1

1

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIAHealth Problems

Occurrence of malaria on high altitude areas Water born

diseases related to flooding and water shortages (drought)

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

Health

Temperature rises will extend the habitats of vectors

of diseases such as malaria, dengue,

schistosomiasis .

Droughts and flooding, where sanitary infrastructure is

inadequate, will result in increased frequency of

epidemics and enteric diseases

More frequent outbreaks of Rift Valley fever could

result from increased rainfall.

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

Yearly Confirmed Malaria Cases (thousands) 1990 – 2006

Source: Aynalem Adugna

Malaria epidemics have been recorded up to 2400

meters during periods when increased temperature

and adequate precipitation are conducive for both vector

survival and parasite development within the vector”

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

“ The weather has changed

completely. There used to

be a lot more rain previously

but now it is dry. The weather

started changing about 30

years ago.”Abdulla Alli, 99 years old, Bubluk,

Ethiopia

“The droughts have been

intensifying over the last

20 years, and the climate is

changing. When it doesn’t

rain our animals die, and we

cannot grow crops” Wako Jaldesa

Miyo Woreda,

Melbana Kebele, Ethiopia.

What do the local People Witness ?

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

„I remember! The rain became shorter

and shorter. The three months of rain became

two. After the flood of Atikipi everything changed.

Now the whole year is Akamu. Akiporo is not

coming anymore!“

„Nowadays nobody wants to dance

during the daytime anymore. The heat

is unbearable! You get tired after short

time. That‘s why all our ceremonies

became kind of boring!“

South Omo Nyangatom

1

6

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

“We still have the names

of the months but they

don’t say anything

anymore!“

Lochoto (March): “muddy”

Lotima (April): “growing of grass”

Yelyel (May): “scattering of

clouds”

1

7

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

Halima’s story about

climate change: “please

help, our rivers are running

dry!”

source: ICRC

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

Loss of Biodiversity

Ethiopia is one of the 34 biodiversity hotspots in the

World . Climate Change induced Temperature and

Moisture changes would lead to the extinction of some

of endemic species

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

2

0

Emissions per year; Mt CO2e

(t CO2e/capita)

145

90

5

5

185

75

-64%

Green

Economy

2030

Buildings

5

Industry

20

Transport

10

Forestry

130

Agriculture2030 –

BAU

400

10

70

405

90

2010

150

5 555

1.1

Green Economy initiatives

3.01.8

Agriculture

Forestry

Power

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Additional abatement potential of ~19 Mt CO2e

from exporting green power to regional markets

Emissions

per capita

The CRGE shows how to meet its development ambitions through keeping

emissions constant

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

• The proposed measures to achieve the emission reduction

targets are included in the Ethiopians’ Green Economy Strategy

(2011)

• the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario was developed by forecasting

Ethiopia’s economic development and computing the

associated emissions using the economic development targets

(2010-2015), past performance and the ambition to reach

middle-income status before 2025

• The abatement potential was calculated using a comparison

with the business as-usual projection.

• The resulting projection was then converted into a CO2

equivalent emission based on international methodology (IPCC

guidelines), domestic expertise and knowledge acquired during

the development of the Ethiopia’s Green Economy Strategy.

EINDC Mitigation (Methodology)

INDCs – Expected to respond to an important question –• How will the expected maximum global emission

quantity of 42Gt in 2030 be divided up among theparties signatory to the new Paris Climate Agreement( Mitigation)

• INDCs are expected to also respond to questions onadaptation and means of implementation.

What are INDCs?

FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC OF

ETHIOPIA

With its INDC Ethiopia demonstrated :1. Keenness to do its part to combat climate change and limit

future climate risks

2. Keenness to follow an efficient and transparent process that will be clearly communicated to build trust and accountability with stakeholders (both domestic & international).

3. Articulated on how the country will integrate climate change into economic development, poverty reduction, etc. and sent signals to all partners including the private sector to contribute to these noble & extraordinary efforts.

Ethiopian INDCs?

2

3

• Despite being a Least Developed Country, Ethiopia has already placed itself on the path of undertaking a substantial national program of climate action, outlined in the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE)

• Ethiopia has already removed fossil fuel subsidies to enable enhanced generation and use of clean and renewable energy

• Ethiopia also seeks to maximise the synergies between adaptation and mitigation, especially involving agriculture and forests

• By targeting much of its actions in these sectors, Ethiopia is seizing the opportunities that ambitious climate action brings, helping to reduce both its future emissions and its vulnerability to climate impacts.

EINDC- Fairness and ambition

• Agriculture (livestock and soil)

• Forestry

• Energy

• Transport

• Industry

• Buildings (including Wastes and Green Cities).

EINDC - Mitigation (Sectors)

Covers the following sectors

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

• Uses• 2010 as base year, and• 2030 as target year

Covers the following gases as per the Green EconomyStrategy

EINDC - Mitigation of GHG Emissions

• The proposed measures to achieve the emission reduction

targets are included in the Ethiopians’ Green Economy Strategy

(2011)

• the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario was developed by forecasting

Ethiopia’s economic development and computing the

associated emissions using the economic development targets

(2010-2015), past performance and the ambition to reach

middle-income status before 2025

• The abatement potential was calculated using a comparison

with the business as-usual projection.

• The resulting projection was then converted into a CO2

equivalent emission based on international methodology (IPCC

guidelines), domestic expertise and knowledge acquired during

the development of the Ethiopia’s Green Economy Strategy.

EINDC Mitigation (Methodology)

Disease

• Strengthening capacity to deal with the expansion and

emergence of diseases and avail medicines in a sufficient

quantity to deal with the emergence and expansion of

human, animal, crop and plant diseases

• Strengthening and increasing capacity for breeding and

distributing disease resistant crop and fodder varieties to

farmers and other land users

EINDC – Adaptation (Medium & LT actions)

Drought

• Minimizing food insecurity and making available crop varieties, that can suit all the agricultural areas

• Protecting humans and domestic animals from extreme droughts by diverting streams, developing groundwater resources and enhancing water harvesting techniques

• Ensuring that urban areas to be habitable through planning for and construction of dams or deep wells, deployment of water saving technologies and wastewater treatment infrastructure

• Improve traditional methods of food and feed storage with the aim of enabling local communities store food and feed in good years for years of food and feed loss resulting from extreme weather events

• Create biodiversity corridors, in order to minimize biodiversity loss through enabling the re-establishment and movement of plant and animal species and varieties

• Enhancing ecosystem health through ecological farming, SLM practices and improved livestock production practices

EINDC- Adaptation (Medium and long-term actions)

Flood

• Developing one or more insurance systems against disasters from extremes weather events

• Building additional dams and power stations to develop energy generation potential from the same river flow as well as develop new dam sites on parallel rivers in order to maintain the baseline hydropower electricity generation capacity to levels attainable in the no-climate change scenario

• Expanding electric power generation from geothermal, wind and solar sources

• Developing climate justified codes for the construction of buildings, roads, railways, bridges, dams and irrigation canals

EINDC- Adaptation (Medium and long-term actions)

• Ethiopia’s INDC covers both mitigation of greenhouse

gases and adaptation

• the scope of financing Ethiopia’s INDC comprises both

public and private sources and both grants and loans

• The full and effective implementation of the Green

Economy Strategy requires an estimated expenditure of

more than USD 150 billion by 2030.

EINDC - Means of Implementation

Major progress :1. The Ministry of Environment Forest & Climate Change ,

Ministry of Finance , Economic Cooperation & NationalPlanning Commission identified the capacity gaps and built thecapacity needed to mainstream climate change adaptation &mitigation initiatives/ considerations ( CRGE/INDC ) into theNational Development Plan ,the Growth and TransformationPlan II ( spans for 5 years ), in all sectors and at allgovernance levels.

2. Implementation of the GTP II,INDC has been startedHigh capital investment for moving to a low carbon pathway areunderway – e.g. railways, huge renewable energy projects, etc.,

3. Working on the development of systems (M&E, ESSF, Privatesector engagement ) to monitor implementation ofCRGE/INDC mainstreamed development plan, GTP II, progress

EINDC – Progress So far

Thank you