East Midlands The Case for High Speed Rail to the Three Cities

8/8/2019 East Midlands The Case for High Speed Rail to the Three Cities

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East MidlandsDevelopment AgencyThe Case for HighSpeed Rail to the ThreeCities

Final Report

FINAL


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East MidlandsDevelopment AgencyThe Case for HighSpeed Rail to the ThreeCities

Final Report

November2009

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TheCaseforHighSpeedRailtotheThreeCities

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EastMidlandsDevelopmentAgency TheCaseforHighSpeedRailtotheThreeCitiesFinalReport

ContentsPage

1 IntroductionandSummaryofConclusions 11.1 Introduction 11.2 MainConclusions 11.3 UKHighSpeedRailcontext 2

2 HighSpeedRail:aprojecttoDeliverNationalEconomicTransformation,TheThreeCitiesContext 32.1 TheThreeCities 32.2 EconomicRestructuring 32.3 LinkingintotheLondonMegaCityRegion 42.4 StrengtheningtheEconomicContributionoftheCityRegionsoftheMidlandsand

theNorthofEngland 62.5 DeliveringtheRegionsGrowth AspirationsandAlleviatingDeprivation 62.6 ThePotentialRoleofHighSpeedRail 6

3 TheWiderEconomicBenefitsofaHighSpeedRailLinkServingtheThreeCities 83.1 TheEconomicCaseforHighSpeedRailtotheThreeCities 83.2 EvaluationMethods 83.3 RationaleforHighSpeedRail 93.4 TheUKHighSpeedRailAgenda 93.5 EvaluatingtheImpacts 103.6 WiderEconomicBenefits 113.7 EstimateoftheWiderEconomicimpactsofHighSpeedRail 113.8 WiderImpactsandIssues 14

4 TheCaseforImprovementstotheMidlandMainLine 184.1 Introduction 184.2 TravelMarketsandtheExistingServicePattern 184.3 OptionstoEnhanceExistingRoutes 204.4 WiderEconomicBenefitsofMidlandMainLineUpgrade 224.5 Conclusions 23

5 DevelopingaCoherent20to30YearRailStrategyfortheThreeCities 255.1 Introduction 255.2 TheCaseforUpgradestoExistingLines 255.3 InterfacesBetweenaPossibleHighSpeedandtheConventionalRailNetworks265.4 DeliveryRisksandTimescales 275.5 StationLocation 285.6 IssuesinRelationto AlignmentofWiderPolicies 285.7 Conclusions 29



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1 Introduction and Summary of Conclusions1.1 IntroductionThisreporthasbeencommissionedbytheEastMidlandsDevelopment Agency(emda)toprovideevidenceonthecasefortheThreeCitiesoftheEastMidlands,Derby,LeicesterandNottinghamtobepartofaUKhighspeedrailnetwork.ThisreportoutlinestheeconomicbenefitsoftheintroductionofahighspeedraillinkservingtheThreeCities,coupledwithupgradestotheexistinglines,toformacoherentstrategyfortherailnetworkoverthenext20to30years.ThefocusoftheworkhasbeentoconsiderthewidereconomicandpolicycaseforhighspeedrailtoservetheThreeCities,nottoundertakeadetailedassessmentofrouteoptions.Theworkhascomprisedahigh-levelassessmentofthepossible journeytimesavingsbetweenmaincities.ThishasbeenbasedonoutlinescenariosfortheupgradeandelectrificationoftheexistingMidlandMainLineroute,aswellasfornewhighspeedrailroutes.Ahighlevelquantificationofthewidereconomicbenefitshasbeenundertaken. AworkshopwasheldwithstakeholdersfromtheThreeCitiesandtheregiontodiscussstrategicpolicyissues.1.2 MainConclusions Highspeedrailshouldbeconsideredaspartofacoherentstrategyforthedevelopment

ofthewiderrailnetworkoverthenext20-30yearsthedevelopmentofhighspeedraillinesandtheupgradeofexistingrailroutesarenotmutuallyexclusiveoptions,anditwillbeimportantfortheThreeCitiestosecureupgradestotheexistingMidlandMainLinetoimproveconnectivityandaddresscapacityconstraintsintheshorttomediumterm.

InadditiontosubstantialstandardtransportuserbenefitsandastrongBenefittoCostRatio,itisestimatedthatenhancementstotheMidlandMainLinecoulddeliveranadditional15millionto19millioninannualproductivitygains,whichisequivalentto0.5billionto0.7billionoveratypical60yearappraisalperiod,discountedto2002prices.OverhalfofthesebenefitswouldbetotheThreeCities.

Forlocationsthatwillnothaveastationonthehighspeednetwork(acharacteristicofhighspeedrailisthatitstopsinfrequently)therewouldalsobeimportantbenefitsresultingfromthenewhighspeedlineprovidingcapacityreliefforexistingrailroutes.ThisincludestheMidlandMainLine,aswellastheEastCoastandWestCoastMainlinethatalsoservepartsoftheEastMidlands.Thesebenefitswouldbeincreasedthroughupgradestotheseexistinglines.

Highspeedrailshouldbedevelopedasaprojecttodelivernationaleconomictransformation,helpingimprovetheconnectivityofmainurbancentresinthemidlandsandthenorthwiththekeyeconomiczoneofLondon,aswellasstrengtheninglinksbetweencityregionstocreateastrongernon-LondoneconomiczoneaspartofanapproachtodevelopamorediverseandbetterdistributedUKeconomy.

ThereisapositiveandstrongeconomiccaseforahighspeedraillinkservingtheThreeCities,basedonthesizeandscaleofthethreehousingmarketareasofNottingham,DerbyandLeicesterwhichcombinedhaveapopulationof2.2millionandaround1million jobs. AnewhighspeedlinetotheThreeCitieswoulddeliversubstantialstandardtransportbenefits.Inadditiontostandardtransportbenefits,theenhancedconnectivityprovidedbyahighspeedlinetotheThreeCitiescoulddeliverannualproductivitygainsofaround51million(withinasensitivityrangeof40millionto53million

depending

upon

assumptions

and

options)

to

the

Three

Cities,

and

other

cities

alongtheroute,includingLondon.Thesebenefitswouldbeworth1.9billion(withinasensitivityrangeof1.4bnto2.0bn)overatypical60yearappraisalperiodanddiscountedto2002prices.Thisestimateisbasedonusingexistingmethodsfor

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assessingWiderEconomicBenefits,whicharebestsuitedtoquantifyingthebenefitsofcommuterrailroutes,andmaynotcaptureallofthetransformationalbenefitsoflong-distancehighspeedroutesrelatedtobusinesscompetitivenessandsupply-chains.

Inadditiontoconsideringhowtodeliverimprovementstolongdistanceroutes,itwillalsobeimportanttoensurethatlocal,commuterconnectionsarealsoenhancedtosupporttheeconomyoftheThreeCities.Toensure thatthemaximumbenefitsareaccruedfromthecreationofahighspeedlineitisvitaltoensurethatthereisgoodsub-regionalandlocalconnectivityacrosstheThreeCitiestothemainrailstations.

WhilstthefirstphaseofthenationalhighspeednetworklooksverylikelytobefromLondontotheWestMidlands,inthedevelopmentofalongertermstrategyoptionsneedtobekeptopentoensurethatthenetworkcan servetheEastMidlands,YorkshireandtheNorthEast.

ThechoiceofstationlocationintheThreeCitiesisanimportantissue.Anout-of-centreparkwaystationwouldgeneratefastertrain journeytimesthanacitycentrelocation,althoughitwouldnotnecessarilyaccessthelocationwherepeople,particularlybusinesstravellers,wanttotraveltoandfrom.Whilstsuchalocationwouldbeaccessiblebycarandcouldhaveampleparkingitwouldhavemajordis-benefitsfornoncarsusers.Aparkwaystationwouldnotlinkotheeconomyofaspecificcityinthemannerthatacitycentrelocationwould.BringingpeopledirectlyintoacitycentretherearegreateropportunitiestoachieveeconomicbenefitsinawaythatgoesbeyondfacilitatingcommuterflowstoLondon.

1.3 UKHighSpeedRailcontextHighSpeedRailreferstopassengertrainsthatoperateatspeedsupto400km/h,mainlyondedicatedalignments,althoughinmanycaseswiththeabilitytoalsotravelatslowerspeedsonsharedalignments.WiththeexceptionofHighSpeed1betweenLondonandtheChannelTunnel,themaximumspeedonUKrailroutesis just200km/h.ThefirstUKHighSpeedRailcorridor(HS1)wasopenedontimeandonbudgetin2007,transforming journeytimesbetweenLondonandParis/Brussels.WithintermediatehighspeedstationsatStratfordandEbbsfleetanddomesticservicesonroutestoandfromnorthandeastKent,theschemeisalsofacilitatingtheregenerationoftheThamesGatewayandKentcoast.AnewrailroutebetweenLondon,themidlandsandnorthofEnglandwillbeneededtoaddressforecastcapacityconstraintsonexistingmainnorth-southraillines.ThereisevidencethatanewhighspeedroutewouldhaveastrongerbusinesscasethanaslowerconventionalrailrouteTheGovernmenthasbeenconsideringthecaseforahighspeedrailnetworkacrosstheUK.HighSpeedTwo(HS2)LtdisacompanyestablishedbytheGovernmentearlierin2009toexaminethepotentialbenefitsandcostsofhighspeedrail.HS2LtdsprimaryobjectiveistoidentifyapreferredroutebetweenLondonandtheWestMidlandsandproduceadetailedbusinesscaseforthis.Asecondaryobjectiveisto advisemorebroadlyonpotentialfurtherUKhighspeedrailrouteoptions.HS2Ltdisexpectedtoreportbytheendof2009.ThisreportprovidesinformationtosupporttheresponsetoHS2fromtheEastMidlandsregion.



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2 High Speed Rail: a project to Deliver NationalEconomic Transformation, The Three Cities Context2.1 TheThreeCitiesTheThreeCitiesareahasapopulationofover2.2million,whichhasgrownby5%since1997.ThisisthemainconcentrationofpopulationintheEastMidlandsregion,whichisprojectedtobeEnglandsfastestgrowingregionintermsofpopulation.TheThreeCitiesandtheirtraveltoworkareasare thelocationforover1million jobs.TheareaistheeconomicpowerhouseoftheEastMidlandsregionanditslargestconcentrationofhighvaluesectors,withover60%oftheregionsfinancialservices jobsand57%ofitsbusinessservicessector.TheThreeCitiescontain45%oftheregionsbusinessesandeachcityhasdevelopedspecialismsindifferentsectorsoftheeconomy.Byemployees,LeicesterHousingMarket Area(HMA)isthelargestwith435,900 jobs,meanwhileNottinghamHMAcontains382,200andDerbyHMAhas205,800.ThethreedistrictsofDerby,LeicesterandNottinghamalone,irrespectiveoftheotherauthoritieswithintheThreeCitiesareallwithinthetop30districtsbyemployeesinGreatBritain.WithintheThreeCitiesareathereareawiderrangeofplacescontributingtothesuccessofthisfunctionaleconomicarea.Thesub-regionalcentresofCoalville,Hinckley,Hucknall,Ilkeston,Loughborough,Mansfield-Ashfield,MarketHarborough,MeltonMowbray,andNewarkinadditiontoothersmallermarkettownsandvillagesplayapartinfacilitatingtheThreeCitieseconomy.TheurbanareasofNottingham,LeicesterandDerbydrivetheregionaleconomy,andtheyareimportanthubsforemployment,servicesandtransportforthewiderThreeCitiesarea,whichincludesseveralsmallersettlements.TransportplaysakeypartinfacilitatingtheeconomicsuccessoftheThreeCities.Itenablestheoperationoflabourmarketsbyfacilitatingcommutingflowstothemainbusinesscentres. AswellaslinkingtheThreeCitiestogether,therailnetworkinparticularprovideseconomicallyvitallinkstoLondon.RailalsoprovidesconnectivitytootherCityRegionssuchasManchester,Birmingham,LeedsandSheffield.ThisprovidesanopportunitytocreateamorepowerfuleconomiczoneoutsideoftheSouthEast.However,themajorityoftheseinter-urbanregionalraillinksareslow,slowerthanmanyothercorecityconnectionsinEngland.Forexample,theservicebetweenNottingham,SheffieldandLeedsoperatesatanaveragespeedof36mph,theNottinghamManchesterserviceat43mph,andtheNottingham- Birminghamserviceat44mph.Thesemoderatelyshortdistancesentailrelativelysignificant journeytimes,limitingtheagglomerationbetweenthecities.2.2 EconomicRestructuringTheThreeCitieshaveexperiencedsignificantchangeinrecentdecadesintheshapeandnatureoftheireconomicbaseasaresultofthetransitionawayfrommanufacturingemployment.Thishasoccurredinthecontextofchangesinnationaleconomicgeographyandstructure.Overthecourseofthelastdecadealone1.2million jobshavebeenlostinmanufacturinginEnglandandthecontinuedvulnerabilityofthissectorisillustratedthroughtheseverityofeffectsthathavebeenfeltasaconsequenceoftherecession.EconomicrestructuringhasleftLondonasthemaindriverofthenationaleconomythroughitsdominanceinthefinanceandbusinessservicesandotherknowledgebasedsectors.LondonhasbecomethebankingcentreoftheworldandEuropesmainbusinesscentre.BuildingupontheopportunitiespresentedbyeconomictransformationtheThreeCitieshaveexperiencedeconomicgrowthoverthecourseofthelast15years,excludingrecentfinancialconditions. ThecityofNottinghamssuccessisreflectedbyGVAperheadbeing32%abovethenationalaverageandisevenmoresignificantinlightofthefactthattheregionalaverageis89%ofthenationalaverage.NottinghamhasastrongknowledgeeconomyandhasbeendesignatedaScienceCitywhichisbasedonitsexpertiseinscience



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andtechnology.ThecityofDerbyalsohashighGVAat26%ofthenationalaverageandhasthehighestproportionofpeopleinemploymentperheadinhightechnologyindustries.Derbyhasthefourthhighestannualemploymentgrowthrateofallcitiesinthecountry,at2.4%,(1995-2005).Leicesterhastraditionallyhadaconsiderablebaseinmanufacturing.Inrecentyearstheeconomyhasdiversified.FollowingtheopeningoftheHighcrossshoppingcentrethecityhasbeenrankedbyVenuescoreas11thmostsignificantretailcentrenationally.In2004Leicesterhad1 jobforeachpersonintheresidentworkingagegroup.Thiscomparestotheregionalaverageof0.8,reflectingthenumberofemploymentopportunitiesonofferinLeicester.TheruralcharacteristicsoftheregionmeanthatmuchofthetraveltoworkareafortheThreeCitiesismadeupofsmallersettlements.WhilsttheeconomyoftheThreeCitieshasgrown,thecitieshavefacedchallengesinattractingandretaininghighlyskilledpeopleandtheirfamilies.Asaresulttherehavebeensignificantincreasesincommutingfromoutsidethecities,withmorepeoplenowtravellinggreaterdistancestoaccessemployment.Thisplacesgreaterpressuresonthetransportnetworktoenablethesepatternsofmovementandtheselevelsofeconomicgrowth.InvestmentinthesecitiesandintheinfrastructurethatenablestheirgrowthisofcentralimportancetoensurethattheyretainandenhancetheirpositiondrivinggrowthintheEastMidlands.ThiswillhaveasubsequentimpactonthepositionsandsuccessoftheregionandultimatelyhelpclosethegapthatexistsbetweentheSouthEastandotherpartsofthecountry.2.3 LinkingintotheLondonMegaCityRegionCreatingstrongandfastlinkstothenationaleconomichubofLondonandinternationalgatewayssuchasHeathrowarevitaltothesuccessandprosperityoftheThreeCities,andconsequentlytheEastMidlandsRegion.GVAintheEastMidlandsisthehighestofallregionsoutsideoftheGreaterSouthEastandstrengtheninglinkstoLondoncouldofferthepotentialtoclosethisgapfurtherandimprovethefinancialprosperityoftheregion.Overthelast5years,theEastMidlandshaspulled awayfromtheWestMidlandsintermsofrelativeproductivity.Thisisshowninthefigurebelow.Figure2.1:ChangeinGVAperheadintheEastandWestMidlands

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

GVA(

per

head)

East Midlands

West Midlands

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

ear

Source:ONS RegionalGVA,December2008releaseTransport

links

have

become

even

more

significant

in

recent

years

due

to

the

economic

transformationthathasoccurredthroughthegrowth oftheknowledgeeconomy,whichisreliantoninternationalglobalnetworksofinternationaltrade.TherelativeproximityoftheThreeCitiestoLondon,especiallyLeicester,meansthatthereisthepotentialtobringthem



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withintheeconomicsphereofinfluenceofLondon.Asthemapbelowshows,partsoftheregionsouthofLeicesterHMAcaninsomerespectsbeconsideredpartoftheGreaterSouthEastmega-regionalreadywithhigherlevelsofcommutingtoLondonthantherestoftheregion. EvidencehasillustratedthatincreasedcommutingtoLondonisassociatedwithincreasedprosperity,asitconnectspeoplewithmoreandbetterpaid jobs.ThebenefitstotheThreeCitiesofimprovedaccesstoLondonarefarwiderthanthosethatstemfromincreasedcommuting.Londonisattheheartofagrowingmegacityregionwithapopulationof18.6million1,andstretchingasfarasSwindon,Northampton,Peterborough,andBournemouth.ThedriverfortheeconomyofthismegacityregionistheconcentrationofactivityincentralLondoninthekeyworldcitysectorsoffinancialandbusinessservices,governmentandcorporateheadquarters,creativeandcultural,tourism,andmajorpublicservicessuchaseducationandhealthcare. Asthesesectorshavegrown,moreroutineactivitieshavebeendisplacedintoothersmallercentreswithinthesamepolycentricmega-cityregion.Forexample,incentresinouterLondonandbeyond(particularlythosewithgoodaccessbyrail),businessservicessectorssuchlawandaccountancyshowstronggrowth.Smallerfirmslocateandthriveincentreswhererentsandsalariesarelower,successfullycateringbothforlocaldemandbutalsoforaLondonclientele.ByimprovingtransportlinksitmaybepossiblefortheThreeCitiestobecomepartofthisfunctionaleconomicarea,strengtheningtheireconomicbase.Figure2.2CommutingpatternstoLondon

Source:Census2001commutingdatafromNOMISDigital

Map

Data

Collins

Bartholomew

Ltd

(2009) &

Crown

Copyright

Overview

Mapping

(2009)

1Arup(2005)RegionalFutures:EnglandsRegionsin2030



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2.4 StrengtheningtheEconomicContributionoftheCityRegionsoftheMidlandsandtheNorthofEngland

ThereispotentialtostrengthlinksbetweentheThreeCitiesandothercityregionsinthemidlands,thenorth,andtheeastofEngland.ThiscouldsupportthecreationofamoredynamicandintegratedeconomiczoneoutsideofLondonthathelpstore-shapethenatureofthenationaleconomy.Currentrail journeytimesandfrequenciesbetweensomemaincitiesarepoor.TheservicebetweenDerbyandLeicesterisinparticularneedoftimetablingimprovementstoprovideamoreregularservice.IntermsofmorestrategicroutesthereisaneedtoimprovelinkstotheM11GrowthCorridorandspecificallyCambridgeandStanstedandYorkshire.Forexample,theaveragespeedofthehourlydirectrailservicebetweenNottingham,SheffieldandLeedsisonly36mph,leadingtoatotal journeytimeofalmosttwohours.Slow journeytimesbetweenLeicesterandBirminghamofalmostanhourmakethisrelativelyshortdistanceasignificantandunattractive journeyorcommutebyrail.Poorconnectionsthatfeatureaslow,infrequentandthelackofadirectservicefromDerbyandNottinghamtoCambridgeandStansted

limit

the

economic

integration

of

these

places.

Strengthening

the

links

between

theseplacescouldenablepeoplelivinginoneoftheThreeCitiestocommutetomainbusinesshubsinotheradjacentcityregionsandsupportbusinesstravel,expandingtherangeof jobandbusinessopportunitiesavailable.TheprospectofhighspeedrailprovidesandopportunitytorethinktheapproachtoeconomicdevelopmentandthespatialdistributionofdifferentsectorsacrossEngland.Byadoptingastrategicapproachitmaybepossibletospreadthebenefitsofgrowthandexpansionmoreevenly,tohelpreducethegapbetweentheSouthEastandtherestofthecountry.ThisshouldfocusuponenhancingthestrengthsoflocationssuchastheThreeCities,tocreateastrongeconomiczoneoutsideofLondonthatcancompeteonaninternationalscaleandworkholisticallywiththeeconomyoftheUKasawhole.Thiscouldbe

based

on

a

wider

range

of

knowledge

based

services,

including

financial

and

business

servicesinadditiontoadvancedmanufacturingandtechnology,healthandeducation.2.5 DeliveringtheRegionsGrowthAspirationsandAlleviating

DeprivationTheEastMidlandsisprojectedtobethefastestgrowingregioninEngland.Inordertoprovideforthislevelofpopulationgrowththereissignificanthousinggrowthplanned.TheEastMidlandsRegionalPlansetsoutarequirementforatleast324,100homestobebuiltintheregionbetween2006and2026.Thereareafurtheradditional128,200homesplannedaspartoftheMiltonKeynesSouthMidlands(MKSM)Growth Area;thelargestgrowthzoneinthecountry.TherearealsoanumberofdesignatedFirstRoundandSecondRoundNewGrowthPointsacrosstheregion.The3Citiesand3 Counties(6Cs)GrowthPointisthelargestoftheseandwillaccommodateanadditional81,500homesby2016.Deliveringthisplannedlevelofhousinggrowthwillrequiregeneralimprovementstotheregionsinfrastructureandwillalsonecessitatenewsourcesofemployment.IndeliveringhighspeedrailthereisalsosignificantpotentialtohelpalleviatethepersistentpocketsofdeprivationthatexistspecificallywithintheThreeCities,andinotherpartsoftheregion.NottinghamCity,forexample,hasthehighestdeprivationscoreintheregionandincludessomeofthemostdeprivedcommunitiesinEngland.Byconnectingpeopletomoreandbetter jobsitmaybepossibletoaddresssomeoftheseareasandfurtherenhanceeconomicprosperityandqualityoflifeacrossthewholeoftheThreeCities.2.6 ThePotentialRoleofHighSpeedRailThroughtheadoptionofa joinedupapproachandbystrengtheningtheconnectionsbetweentheThreeCitiesandLeeds,ManchesterandSheffieldCityRegionsthereexists



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thepotentialtocreateamoreintegratedeconomythatbuildsuponthediverserangeofstrengthsofdifferentcityregions.ThereisanopportunitytobringpartsoftheThree CitieswithinarelativelyfeasibledailycommuteofLondonwithfastest journeytimesbyhighspeedrailof62minutes.WhilstthiswouldstillnotfallwithinthesignificantonehourofLondonmarkeritdoesmakeitamorefeasibleoptionforcommuters.Furthermoreitwould maketheThreeCitiesmoreeconomicallyconnectedtoLondon,withpotentialtobecomepartofthemegacityregion.FasterconnectionstoHeathrowandrailconnectionstothecontinentbyHighSpeedOnewouldsignificantlyenhancetheeconomiccompetivenessofcityregionoutsideLondonandtheSouthEast.HighspeedrailcouldmorewidelyoffertheopportunitytocreateamorecompetitiveeconomycomprisingthecityregionsintheEastMidlandsandthenorthofEngland.Throughtheadoptionofanapproachthatrecognisesandbuildsuponthedifferentstrengthswithinthesecityregions,facilitatedbystrongrailconnections,itmaybepossibletocreateastrongerandmoredynamiceconomy.Expandingandintegratingtheeconomiesofthesecityregionscouldbeachievedthroughnewhighspeedrailconnectionsinkeylocations,andbyfasterconventionalrailservicesonexistingroutesmakinguseofcapacityfreedupbythenewhighspeednetwork.HighspeedrailofferssignificantopportunitiestofacilitatethedevelopmentofastrongereconomiczoneoutsideofLondonthatwouldbedrivenbythecityregionsofthemidlandsandthenorthofEngland,aswellassupportingandstrengtheningtheeconomyofLondonandtheSouthEast.



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3 The Wider Economic Benefits of a High Speed RailLink Serving the Three Cities3.1 TheEconomicCaseforHighSpeedRailtotheThreeCitiesDevelopingahighspeedroutetotheThreeCitiesrepresentsastrongeconomiccaseandwouldenhancetheeconomicprosperityoftheEastMidlandsregionasawhole.Itcould: accordingtopreviouswork2,deliversubstantialstandardtransportbenefitsof29billion

andapositiveBenefittoCostratioof2.5fortheEastCoastroute; helptransformtheeconomyoftheThreeCitiesbydeliveringastepchangein journey

timesandcapacityonrailroutestoLondon,andto otherkeycityregions; enhanceandstrengthentheroleoftheThreeCitiesasthekeydriversoftheregional

economyandasalocationforoveronemillion jobsand2.2millionpeople; improvetransportconnectionsfromtheregiontoLondon,addressingcapacity

constraints,improving

line

speeds;

addresstheproblemsofpoorraillinksbetweenmaincentresintheregionandwithkey

centresinadjacentregionsincludingYorkshire,theEastofEnglandandtheWestMidlands.Poorconnectivitylimitstheabilityofbusinessestoaccessmarketsandpeopletoaccess jobsinadjacentcityregions,limitingeconomicagglomerationbenefits.ThisneedstoincludestrategiclinkstoCambridgeforexamplewhichcurrentlydoesnothaveadirectservicetoDerbyandNottinghamandlinespeedstoLeicesterareslow;

helptodelivertheambitiousgrowthaspirationsfortheThreeCitiesandtheRegionmorewidelytorealisethepopulationprojections,whichestimatethattheregionwillbethefastestgrowinginthecountry;

improvelinkstokeyinternationalgateways;and improveconnectionsbetweentheThreeCitiesthemselvestosupportbusiness

clusteringandthedevelopmentofkeysectorsoftheeconomy.ThiswillexpandthelabourmarketandfacilitatemovementbetweentheThreeCitiesandthusfundamentallypositivelyimpactupontheperformanceoftheregionasawhole.

3.2 EvaluationMethodsWhilstmanyreportshavebeenpublishedonthepotentialbenefitsofhighspeedrail,nonehaveconcludedcomprehensivelyontherationalefortheinvestmentorthecorrectevaluationmethods.Forexample,anunresolvedissueremainsthattheproposedhighspeedlinethroughtheWestMidlandswhichreducestraveltimestoLondontolessthanonehourcouldresultinBirminghambecomingacommutersuburbofLondonandeffectivelybeingintegratedintotheGreaterSouth East.ThisscenarioanditseffectontheeconomiesoftheMidlandsandtheNorthhasnotbeenassessedcomprehensivelybypolicymakers.Similarly,whilststudieshaveconsideredthepotentialbenefitsoflinestotheNorthWestorYorkshireorboth,nonehaveattemptedtoassessthepotentialdetrimentaleffectalinegoingtoonebutnottheothercouldhaveuponthefutureeconomicdevelopmentofthenorth.AconclusionfromthisprojectisthatastrongeconomiccasedoesexistforfurtherhighspeedrailintheUKusingtheDfTguidanceonpureagglomerationandEuropeanexamples

highlights

that

it

could

result

in

real

and

significant

benefits.

However

gaps

in

the

analysisstillexistwhichshouldbefilledpriortodecidingonroutepreferences.

2AtkinsworkonHighSpeedRailfortheStrategicRailAuthority,updatedin2008



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3.3 RationaleforHighSpeedRailTherearemanyreasonswhytheUKmightwanttobuildhighspeedrailacrosspartsofthecountryandindeedeventuallyacompleteUKnetwork.Howeverinmakingthecaseforhighspeedrail,differentobjectivesareoftenconfused andevaluationmethodswhichvalueoneaspectarecomparedagainstgoalswhichhavenotyetbeenvalued.Itisthereforeimportanttosetoutwhyhighspeedrailisneededandtheintendedbenefits. CongestedexistingtransportnetworktheUKrailnetworkisalreadycongestedand

partsareforecasttoreachcapacityinthenearfuture.Even justonthisbasis,thecaseforanewrailnetwork,athighspeed,isstrong.

Contributetowardsenvironmentalgoalstherehasbeenandcontinuestobeadesiretoreduceourimpactupontheenvironment.Thisrequiresmoresustainablepatternsofactivity. Highspeedrailcancontributetothesegoals.Whilstnotthemainaimofhighspeedrail,movingdemandawayfromdomesticflightsandtowardsrailwouldhelpinachievingthesegoals.Howevertherearefurtherconsiderationsforpotentiallymeetingenvironmentalobjectivesfromthedeliveryofhighspeedrail.TheseincludewhethertherouteservesHeathrowandthedisbenefitslosinglocalairportsmighthaveuponnorthernregions.

Transformeconomicgeographymuchfocusofthecaseforhighspeedrailisthatitisneededforeconomicgrowth. However,economicgrowthencompassesmanythings.Thereisgrowthincitycentreswhichisfacilitatedbytransportwhichenablescommuterstoaccessthosecentres;thereisgrowthincitieswhichisencouragedbylinkingbetweenproductivecitiesandfosteringbetterbusinessconnectivity. ThereisalsothegoaltosharegrowthmoreevenlyacrosstheUK,reducingthenorth-southdivideandattractinginvestmentacrosstheUK. Thesegoalsarecertainlynotmutuallyexclusivebutequallyitisnotclearthattheyareentirelycomplementary. Understandingwhichofthesehighspeedrailistryingtoachieveisofcrucialimportancefordefiningitsrouteandphasing.

WearebehindtherestofcontinentalEuropepartsofEuropehavesignificanthighspeedrailservicesandmosthaveplanstoincreasethesenetworksinthefuture. Inthisrespect,theUKisbehindtherestofEurope. Howeverthisisnotreasonenough;thenetworkneedstobeplannedthoroughlyandallpossibledisbenefitsaswellasbenefitstakenintoconsiderationintheplanningprocess.

3.4 TheUKHighSpeedRailAgenda3.4.1 High Speed OneTheUKcurrentlyhas justonehighspeedline,whichlinksLondonwithParisviatheChannelTunnelRaillink.Thisisamulti-purposerouteasitbothservesinternationalroutesanddomesticones. ThedomesticservicesaretoStratford,Ebbsfleet,AshfordandFolkestone. WiththeexceptionofFolkestone,the traveltimesbetweentheseplacesareunder45minutesoncethedomesticservicesarefullyoperational. Thismakescommutingbetweenthemviapublictransportconsiderablymoreattractivethanpreviously. Thisattributeoftheoneandonlyexistinghighspeedraillineisthereforeratherdistinctivefromtheproposedhighspeedraillineslinkingtherestofthecountry.3.4.2 High Speed TwoHighSpeedTwo(HS2)LtdisacompanywhichwasestablishedbytheGovernmentearlierin2009toexaminethepotentialbenefitsandcostsofhighspeedrail. HS2LtdsprimaryobjectiveistoidentifyapreferredroutebetweenLondonandtheWestMidlandsandproduceadetailedbusinesscaseforthis.ItssecondaryobjectiveistoadvisemorebroadlyonpotentialfurtherUKhighspeedrailrouteoptions,withUKregionsinvitedtosubmitsupplementaryevidence.HS2Ltdisexpectedtoreportbytheendof2009.



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3.4.3 GreengaugeGreengaugeisapublicinterestgroupsetuptofurtherthedebateonhighspeedrail. IthasrecentlyreportedonthecaseforaUKwidehighspeedrailnetwork.Thisnetworkwascentredontheneedfortwoalignments:onetotheeasternsideofthePenninesandtheothertothewest.ThereportconcludedthathighspeedrailisneededtoaddresstwochallengesenhancingeconomiccompetitivenessacrosstheUK,andimprovingtheenvironmentalsustainabilityofourtransportsystem. Theeconomiccompetitivenesselementoftheirworkrestsonrelievingfuturecapacityconstraints.Itconcludesthattransformational journeytimeswouldalterbusinessandresidentiallocationdecisions,allowingmorebalancedgrowthacrossthecountry. Thisreportusedexistingguidanceinestimatingeconomicimpacts.3.4.4 Arup and Volterra work for Leeds and Sheffield City RegionsArupandVolterraundertookanalysiswhichconsideredthecaseforhighspeedrailtoYorkshire.Thisusedexistingguidanceinordertoquantifybenefitsbutalsoqualitativelydiscussedthewiderunansweredquestionsforevaluatinghighspeedrail.3.4.5 Northern WayTheNorthernWaysNorth-SouthConnectionsreportconsideredthecaseforhighspeedrailtothenorth,viathemidlands.Thisreportconcludedthattherewerestrongcasesforroutestoserveboththewesternandeasterncorridors.In fact,whilsttheresultswereofabroadlysimilarmagnitudeforeachcorridor,theeasternalignmentwasproventoreapgreaterrewards. ThatreportfoundthatawesterncorridorwouldproduceannualproductivitygainstotheSouthEast,WestMidlandsandNorthWestof51mandtheeasterncorridorwouldproducegainstotheEast,EastMidlandsandYorkshireof53m,withfurtherbenefitsalsoaccruingtotheNorthEast,ScotlandandLondon.3.5 EvaluatingtheImpactsTraditionaltransportappraisaltechniquesarewidelyacceptedandarestandardindustrypractise. Thesemethodsvaluethebenefitsofthingssuchascapacityrelief,timesavings,reliability,frequency,accidentsetc. Guidanceon WiderEconomicBenefits(WEBs)wasissuedsubsequentlywhichestimatestheimpactoftransportinvestmentuponbusinessproductivityandlabourmarkets. ThisguidanceresultedfromtheworkdonetoassessthecaseforCrossrail,aneweasttowestraillinkin London. Thisguidance,althoughrecentlyaltered,isnowalsorelativelystandardforassessingtheeconomicimpactsoflarge-scaletransportinvestments.TheexistingguidancefromDfTonWEBsisintendedtoquantifythepotentialeconomicimpactsoftransportimprovementsuponbusinessproductivity.Thisguidanceemergedfollowingaparticulartypeofinvestment(Crossrail)thatincreasedtheaccessibilitytoasinglekeybusinessareaandasaresulttheguidancefocusesuponthebenefitsofrelievingcapacityconstraintstoproductivecitycentres.Highspeedraillinkscanandoftendoimproveaccessibilitytokeybusinessareas.Theprincipalfunctionofhighspeedrail,however,isoftenadifferentone:totransformthefuturedevelopmentofthecountryseconomicgeography.Ifthedeliveryofhighspeedrailisaccompaniedbyplanningpoliciestosupportsustainableeconomicdevelopment,ExamplesfromcontinentalEuropeandHighSpeedOne(seesection3.8)suggestthatitcanhaveverypositiveimpacts.Thepotentialtransformationalimpactoftransportinvestmentisnotyetcapturedbycurrentguidance.Thekeylimitationofexistingtechniquesisthattheyassumeasinputstheresidentsand

jobsofthesystem. Withtheseassumptionsmade,themodelsareoftenrestrictedintheirabilitytoallowpeopletochoosetoliveorcompaniestochoosetolocateelsewhereduetoimprovedtransportlinks.Thiscanforceimplicitlyalargedegreeofintransigenceintothemodelledsystemandmeansthatthesemodelsarenotfitforthepurposeofestimatingthe



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impactsofinvestmentinwhollynewtransportlinksuponlocationdecisionsandtheinterconnectivityoftowns,citiesandregions.InthisworktheexistingguidancehasbeenusedtoestimatehighlevelquantitativeestimatesofthebenefitsofHSRbutalsoqualitativelydiscussthewiderissueswhichareasyetunaddressedbythecurrentmethodsofevaluation.3.6 WiderEconomicBenefitsGuidancefromtheDepartmentforTransportonWiderEconomicBenefits(WEBs)isintendedtoquantifythepotentialeconomicimpactsoftransportimprovementsuponbusinessproductivity.Oneaspectofthismethodology,pureagglomeration,estimatestheincreaseinproductivityforexistingworkersasaresultofahigherdensityofworkersbeingclosertogether. ThisistheelementwhichhasbeenusedmostwidelyinstudiestodatetoassessthepotentialbenefitsofHighSpeedRail.TheWEBsguidanceemergedfollowingaparticulartypeofinvestment(Crossrail)thatincreasedtheaccessibilitytoasinglekeybusinessarea(London)andasaresulttheapproachismostappropriateforassessingthebenefitsofrelieving(commuting)capacityconstraintsintoproductivecitycentres.HighspeedraillinkscanandoftendoimproveaccessibilitytokeybusinessareasanditisenvisagedthatthedomesticservicesonHS1willbeusedsignificantlyforcommutingintoLondon,makingtheWEBsmethodologyveryappropriateforassessingthebenefitsofthathighspeedline. HoweveritisimportanttoconsidertherangesoftraveltimesbeingeffectedbyHSRbeforeapplyingthismethodologyandinterpretingtheresults.Itisgenerallyacceptedthat journeytimesofunderanhourbegintoappealascommuterroutes, journeytimesupto2-3hoursallowbusinessestocarryoutfacetofacedaymeetingsonasemi-regularbasisand journeytimesofover3hoursareassociatedwithlessfrequentbusinesstravel,forwhichairtravelbeginstocompete. Somecommutingalreadyexistsfromthesouthernpartsoftheregion,andthepotentialforthisactivitytoincreaseandbecomemorepopularshouldbeaconsiderationforthoseassessingthecaseforhighspeedrailservingthemidlands. However,inthecontextoftheEastMidlands,itisprimarilythecentralbracketwhichhighspeedrailwillimpactuponmakingitmorepracticaltoconductdaymeetingsbetweenbusinessesintheEastMidlandsandLondon.ThepureagglomerationelementoftheWEBsmethodologycapturesthisimpacttoareasonableextent. Itevaluatestheproductivitybenefitsofbusinesscentresbecomingeffectivelydenserthatistosaythatifthereare10 jobsinplaceAand20 jobsinplaceBandtheyare30minutesapart,bothplacesAandBbecomeeffectivelydenserbyreducingthetraveltimebetweenthemastheyhavemorereadyaccesstotheotherplaceslabourmarketandbusinessservices.ForthisstudythepureagglomerationmethodtoassesstherelativebenefitstotheThreeCitiesandwiderEastMidlandsofoptionsforhighspeedrailhasbeenused.Insummary,theanalysisshowsthathighspeedoptionscouldleadtoannualproductivitybenefitstotheEastMidlandsofbetween20m-30mwithsimilarmagnitudesofbenefitsalsoaccruingtoLondon.3.7 EstimateoftheWiderEconomicimpactsofHighSpeedRail3.7.1 Scenarios for assessmentForthepurposesofthisprojectanassessmentwasundertakenonthewidereconomicimpactsoftheHighSpeedNorthEast(HS-NE)routeproposedbyGreenguage21.Thiswouldbeaseconddedicatedhighspeedline(inadditiontoGreenguage21sproposedHighSpeedNorthWesttotheWestMidlandsandNorthWest)fromLondontotheNorth



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EastviaCambridge,Nottingham,Sheffield,andLeeds.TheoptionsforastationlocationforNottinghamwouldeitherbetheexistingcitycentreNottinghamMidlandstation,oranewparkwaystationatToton,tothewestofNottingham.Thewidereconomicbenefitsofbothoptionshavebeenassessed.Thefollowingthreescenarioswereevaluatedagainstthecurrentsituation: HighspeedrouteviaNottingham; Highspeedrouteviaanewstation(possiblyToton);and EnhancedMMLviaelectrificationandline-speedimprovements(seeChapter4)Journeytimesavingswereestimatedbasedonbenchmarksfromotherroutesanddiscussionwithlocaltransportexperts,andusedstandardDfTguidanceonproductivity,elasticitiesanddiscountingtoevaluatetheseoptions.GreengaugeidentifiestheneedforanewparkwaystationatTotoninsteadofusingthecurrentEastMidlandsParkwaystation.However,itisunclearfromthisreportwhythisnewstationisneededespeciallygiventheproximityofthecurrentEastMidlandsParkwaystationtoEastMidlandsAirportandtheupgradesplannedforthe A453.The journeytimeassumptionsstemmingfromthesescenariosaresetoutinTable3.2Figure3.1.HighSpeedRouteScenarios

Basedontheseroutescenarios,the journeytimesavingsthatwouldaccruefromHighSpeedRailwereestimated.ThesearesetoutinTable3.2overleaf.



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Table3.2.EstimatedJourneyTimesSavingsfromHighSpeedNorthEastLondon Sheffield Leeds Cambridge Stansted

EstimatedfuturejourneytimesfromToton(viaHSNE)EstimatedfuturejourneytimesfromNottinghamCentral(viaHSNE)Currentjourneytimes(fromNottingham)Estimatedmaximumjourneytimesaving(fromNottingham)

62 30 55 44 52

69 28 53 43 52

104 53 107 130 168

35 25 54 87 116

Note:italics=1changerequired.Timeshowstotaljourneytimeinc.waittime.Source:Arupestimate.

3.7.2

Findings

ThetablesbelowsummarisetheestimatedannualproductivitybenefitsandtheNetPresentValue(NPV)overatypical60yearappraisalperiod,discountedto2002prices,totheThreeCities,LondonandothercitiesagainstaDoNothingscenario.Inorderthatthebenefitscanbecomparedagainstoneanotherwithoutbeingconfusedbydiscountingfactors,ithasbeenassumedthattheimprovementsalloccuratthe samefuturepointintimeandassessedthemallagainsttheexistingsituation.Withintheanalysiswhereverthereare

judgementstobemade,conservativeassumptionshavebeenmade.Thefiguressetoutinthetablearethewiderproductivitybenefitsfromthedifferentoptions,whichwouldbeinadditiontothestandardtransportuserbenefitswhichwouldalsobesignificant.Table3.3:AnnualProductivityGainsof(m,2002prices),AdditionaltoStandardTransportUserBenefits,forScenariosforHighSpeedRail

Area HSNE toNottinghamCityCentre

HSNE toToton

DerbyHMA 0(00.1) 8.2(7.6- 9.6)LeicesterHMA 0.2(0.2- 0.2) 0.6(0.6- 0.7)NottinghamandNottinghamOuterHMA 28(21.9- 28) 16.6(13.8- 16.6)London 18.9(18- 20.8) 17.3(16.2- 19.1)Sheffield 2.1(1.7- 2.2) 0.9(0.8- 1)Leeds 1.3(1.2- 1.3) 1.1(11.1)Cambridge 0.5(0.3- 0.5) 0.5(0.3- 0.5)Stansted 0.1(0.1- 0.2) 0.1(0.1- 0.3)ThreeCities(inc.NottinghamOuterHMA) 28.3(22.2- 28.3) 25.4(21.9- 26.9)Total 51.2(43.4- 53.4) 45.3(40.2- 48.8)

Note:CentralresultsshownfirstwithsensitivityrangesinbracketsThereisalsoapositiveandstrongeconomiccaseforahighspeedraillinkservingtheThreeCities.TheenhancedconnectivityprovidedbyahighspeedlinetotheThreeCitiescoulddeliverannualproductivitygainsofaround40-53million,whichamountsto1.9



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billion(withinasensitivityrangeof1.4bnto2.0bn)whenevaluatedoveratypical60yearappraisalperiodanddiscountedto2002prices.Similarly,overhalfofthesebenefitswouldaccruetotheThreeCities.Table3.4:60 YearNetPresent Value(m,2002prices)ofScenariosforHighSpeedRail

60yrNPV (m,2002prices)HSNE toNottinghamCityCentre

HSNE toToton

Total 1,872(1,5881,952) 1,656(1,4701,783)ThreeCitis(inc.NottinghamOuterHMA)

1,036(8101036) 929(802984)

Note:CentralresultsshownfirstwithsensitivityrangesinbracketsTheanalysishasconsideredthe journeytimesavingsfromalldistrictswithintheNottingham,DerbyandLeicesterhousingmarketareasandalsotwoadditionalneighbouringEastMidlandsdistrictstoeachotheranddestinationsofLondon,Sheffield,Leeds,CambridgeandStansted.Analysishasalsobeenundertakentoassessthebenefitstotheothercitiesfromtheseoptions.ThefiguresreportedfortheselocationsareonlypartialhoweverastheyvaluethebenefitsofimprovementsintraveltimestotheEastMidlandsbutthetraveltimesarekeptconstantbetweentheotherdestinations.Ofthehighspeedoptions,theNottinghamCentralalignmentrouteresultsinthehighestoverallbenefitsbuttheToton Alignmentrouteresultsinamorewidelydistributedsetofbenefitsacrossthethreeareas.ThisresultisreasonablyaccuratefortheThreeCitiesareaswhichareofprimaryinteresthere,buttheoverallbenefitsfromeitherofthehighspeedroutesarelikelytobehigherthanthisbecausethemagnitudeoftheresultspresentedarepartiallyduetothegeographyoverwhichtheevaluationhasbeencarriedouttherouteofEasternAlignmentwouldalsoresultinlargerbenefitstoLeedsandSheffieldCityRegions,forexample,whichisonlypartiallyconsideredhere.ThepreviousworkwhichismostcomparabletotheanalysisdiscussedinthisreportistheSDGNorth-SouthConnectionsstudyfortheNorthernWaywhichestimatedthatanentirenorthernnetwork(West,Eastandtrans-Pennineroutes)wouldresultinproductivitybenefitstothenorthof10bn(60yrNPV).Ofthis, justunderhalf,or4.8bn,wasduetotheeasternroute. Andofthis,around19percentwasattributedtotheEastMidlands.ThisisequivalenttoannualproductivitygainsintheEastMidlandsof24.5mora60yrNPVof0.9bn.ThisisverycomparabletoestimatesofthebenefitstotheThreeCitiesarea,suggestingthatthemethodsusedarereasonablyconsistent.3.8 WiderImpactsandIssues3.8.1 OverviewWhilstthismethodgoessomewaytoquantifyingthe benefitsofhighspeedrail,itdoesnotexplicitlycapturethepotentialtransformationalimpactswhichhighspeedrailcouldhaveuponthefuturedevelopmentofthecountryseconomicgeography. Ifthedeliveryofhighspeedrailisaccompaniedbyplanningpoliciestosupportsustainableeconomicdevelopment,Europeanexamplessuggestthatitcanhaveverypositiveimpacts.Forexample,theFrenchcitiesofLilleandLyonshow(qualitatively)thathighspeedrailcanhaveverybeneficialimpactsupontheeconomicdevelopmentofacity. Howeverthisdoesnot justhappenautomatically. Theseexamplesunderlinetheimportanceofaligningeconomicdevelopmentstrategieswithtransportstrategies. Lilleforexamplewassupported



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byplanningpolicieswhichenabledsignificantdevelopmenttooccurnearthehighspeedstationandvariousotherregenerationstrategies.Accentuatingexistingtrendsandstrengthsisnearlyalwayseasierthancompletelyredefiningaplace. BuildinguponthealreadystrongassetsofNottingham,DerbyandLeicesterastheeconomiccentresoftheEastMidlandseconomy,andimprovingthelinksbothnorthboundwiththeSheffieldandLeedsandsouthboundwithCambridgeandLondonshouldofferaverypositivepotentialforfutureeconomicgrowth.3.8.2 Example of High Speed OneThetablebelowsummarisestheEconomicimpactsofHighSpeedOneestimatedinarecentevaluationbyVolterra.Table3.5:ImpactsofHighSpeedOne

Impacts bnTransportbenefits 3.8WiderEconomicbenefits 3.8Regenerationbenefits 10.0Totalbenefits(PV over60yrs) 17.6

Thetransportbenefitswereprimarilytimesavingsandthewidereconomicbenefits(WEBs)weresplitalmostevenlybetweenmove-to-more-productive-jobsandpureagglomerationbenefits. Aswithalltransportevaluations,itshouldbenotedthatWEBsarecompletelyadditionaltostandardtransportuserbenefits,hencetheadditionofthebenefitsinthetableabove. Itshouldalsobenotedthatthedomesticservicesareexpectedtobeusedsignificantlyforcommutingpurposes,makingtheincentives,driversandbenefitsoftheschemequitedifferentinsomewaysfromotherproposedhighspeedraillines.HS1isalsocreditedwithsignificantregenerationimpacts. IthasenabledthedeliveryofthreemajordevelopmentschemesinEbbsfleet,StratfordandKingsCross.Thoseschemeswillsignificantlyimpactonthreeregenerationareaswithplansforover15,000homesand70,000 jobsresultinginquantifiableresidentialspendingandoutput.3.8.3 Examples from Continental EuropeTheseexampleshighlighttheneedtoaligncityandregionaleconomicdevelopmentobjectiveswithinvestmentininfrastructure.Highspeedrailonitsownwillnotdelivertransformationalchangebuttheseexamplessuggestthatalongsidestrategicplansforotherinvestmentandplanningpolicieswhichsupportgrowthitcanhaveverybeneficialeffects.Theimportanceof joinedupplanningandstrategicfore-thinkingishighlightedbyexampleswherehighspeedrailhasnothadthebeneficialimpactsenvisaged.ForexampleToursdidnotbenefitsignificantly.CommentatorssuggestthismightbebecausetheeconomywhichwastherebeforedidnotfitwellwithHSR(itwasmainlytourism).Manysmallerplaceswhicharestoppedatinfrequentlyappeartohavebeenlimitedinsuccesstoo(LeCreusotforexample).Thisimpliesaneedtobalancetransportprovisionwithgoodlocalservicessothatsurroundingsmallertownsdonotloseout. Thereissomeevidencethatsuccessinsomecities(benefitingfromHSR)couldresultineconomiclossesinneighbouringcentres(e.g.LyonvDijon). Thiscouldbemitigatedbygoodregionaltransportlinks.Verylittlequantificationhasbeencarriedoutinthisareaalthoughthefollowingprojectswereevaluatedex-post: TGVSud-Est(Paris-Lyon)Bonnafous(1987); AVE(Madrid-Seville)deRusandInglada(1997);and



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JapaneseShinkansenBanisterandBerechman(2000).Theex-postevaluationsshowincreasesincommercialactivity,andhencelandvaluesaroundsome,butbynomeansall,highspeedrailstations.Forexamplebetween1983and1990,therewasa43%increaseinofficespacearoundLyonPart-Dieustation;whilstinJapanlandvaluesincommercialareasroseby67%withaShinkansenstation(NakamuraandUeda,1989).However,itisrecognisedthatthesemeasuresmayreflectdisplacementofactivityfromelsewhereandshouldnotbeinterpretedasbeingindicativeofnetgrowth.LyonDuetophysicalconstraintsaroundtheexistingstation,amajornewstationtoaccommodateTGVserviceswasbuiltadjacenttoanemergingcommercialdistrict.Sincethestartoftheseservices,furtherdevelopmentaroundthecommercialareahasfollowed: Businessesrelocatedtothecommercialdistrict,andofficeaccommodationbecame

morevaluable; Thescaleofbusinessandcommercialrelocationhascreateditsownmomentumin

attractingfurthersuchactivities; Theurbanpublictransportsystemhasbeendevelopedtoenableaccesstothearea

(andtheTGVstation)fromsurroundingareas;and Hotelshavebeenbuiltinanareaformerlylackingthem;suggestingthattheTGV

servicehasalsoexpandedtouristtraveltowhatwasalreadyanimportanttouristdestinationitissuggestedthatthismayalsoindicatethatvisitorsvaluehotelsclosetotheirplaceofarrival.

LilleHistorically,Lillehadbeenheavilyreliantonindustry,beingattheheartofakeyindustrialregion.Thecitybenefittedfromincorporatingtheplansforhighspeedrailintoawiderlongtermvisiontotransformthecityasawhole.In2004,LillegainedthepositionofEuropeanCityofCulture. AnewthroughstationstrictlyforTGVservices(LilleEurope)wasbuiltonaformer

barrackssiteneartotheoriginalstation.Mostoftherestofthissitewasusedforamajorcommercialcentrewithoffices,hotelsandalargemodernretailcentre.Theremainderwasmadeintoapublicpark,replacingformeropenspaceusedtobuildthenewapproachlinestoLilleEurope.Thewholeareaisadjacenttotheoldcitycentreandhasformedanextensionofit.

Furtherprogrammeshaveledtosubstantialnewbuildingofoffices,publichousingandaverylargeconferenceandeventshallinareasadjacenttoLilleEurope.Thisformspartofacontinuingstrategyofdevelopmentforthearea.Furtherexpansionisnowinhand(atthetimeofwriting)totakeinredevelopmentofaclosedrailwaygoodsyardandotherdisusedlandbeyondtheconferencehall.

Reorganisationofthelocaluniversitieshasincludedlocatingsomefacultiesinformercottonmillsinolderareas,thuscreatinglocalemploymentandbusinessesintheseareas.Theseolderareashavealsobenefitedfromregenerationprogrammes.Inturnsomeofthetraditionaluniversitybuildingshavebeentakenoverbylargerbusinesses,oftenforregionalheadoffices.

Complementaryprogrammesofregenerationhavebeenundertakeninotherpartsoftheconurbation,notablyintheformercottontownsofRoubaixandTourcoing.Thesehaveseendisusedpublicandindustrialbuildingsmodernisedforreuseasoffices,leisureandcommunitycentres,andspecialisteducation.NotableistheEuroteleportcomplexatRoubaix,adjacenttoamodernretailcentredesignedtoenhancethe



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traditionalcitycentre.Inparallel,housingareasinthesetownshaveseenprogrammesofimprovementandnewbuilding.

CologneIn1988theColognecityauthoritiesdecidedthat,withtheplanningoftheBrusselsCologne

Frankfurt

high-speed

corridors,

the

station

should

be

rebuilt

as

part

of

a

major

redevelopmentofthewholeareaaroundtheCologneFairground.Thisredevelopmentincludesoffices,hotels,retailandleisurecentres,andhousing,aswellasredevelopmentofthemainFairsitevenues.Commentatorsbelievethatcombinedwithaccessbyhigh-speedtrainsfrommuchofWesternEurope,thisputsCologneinastrongerpositiontohostinternationalevents.Thenewstationalsoactsasakeynodeonregionalrailservicesandlocaltransit.Furthermore,becausethestationislessthanonekilometrefromthecentreofthecity,andlinkedbybridges,itisabletocomplementthemoretraditionalactivitiesbasedthere.



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4 The Case for Improvements to the Midland Main Line4.1 IntroductionThissectionsetsoutthecaseandeconomicbenefitsofupgradingandelectrifyingtheMidlandMainLine.TheMidlandMainLineconnectsLeicester,Nottingham,DerbyandotherkeylocationsintheThreeCities(includingLoughboroughandEastMidlandsParkway)withLondonStPancrasInternational.ItisalsothemainroutetoSheffieldandformspartofthecross-countrynetwork.ItprovidesaccesstoLondonfromkeylocationsinthesouthoftheEastMidlands,suchasWellingborough,Kettering,CorbyandMarketHarborough.4.2 TravelMarketsandtheExistingServicePattern4.2.1 Summary of Existing Strategic Travel MarketsThissectionprovidesanoverviewoftheexistingrailmarketsbetweentheThreeCitiesandLondon(splitbytickettype)viatheMidlandMainLine(MML),plusflowstoSheffieldandLeeds.GranthamandPeterborougharealsoincludedforcomparison,astheyarelocatedasimilar

distance

from

London

on

the

East

Coast

Main Line

(ECML).

BasedonstatisticscollatedbyNetworkRail,stationsontheMidlandMainLine(MML)haveachievedahighergrowthratefortripstoLondon,comparedwiththeECMLortheGreatWesternMainLine(GWML).MidlandMainLinetrainfrequenciesto/fromLondonincreasedfrom2to4perhourin1999,andthishashelpedtosupportthehighergrowthrate.Theanalysisofthedataonexistingtravelpatterns(thedataissetoutinTable4.1)highlightsanumberofinterestingtrends. LeicestergeneratesahighertriprateperpersontoLondoncomparedwithDerbyand

Nottingham,andthisisconsistentwiththeshorterdistancestothecapital.Theseasonticketsaccountforabout20%ofthetotal journeystoLondon.

The

trip

rate

per

person

for

Nottingham

needs

to

be treated

with

some

caution

comparedwiththeresultsforDerby,giventherelativelytightadministrativeboundaries.Nottinghamstationservesalargelygeographicarea,andthishelpstoexplaintothehigherratio.ThepercentageofseasontickettripstoLondonfrombothDerbyandNottinghamisverysmall,reflectingtheadditional journeytimescomparedwithLeicesterthatmakescommutingveryunattractive.

TheresultsfortheECMLstationsdemonstratesome interestingcomparisons. AlthoughthepopulationofPeterboroughissignificantlysmaller,itgeneratesabout25%more

journeysthanLeicester(bothcitiesareabroadlysimilardistancefromLondon).Furthermore,therearesignificantlymoreseasontickettripsbetweenPeterboroughandLondonthanLeicester.Thisreflectstheadvantagesofthefaster journeytimesviatheECML.

Thebenefitsoffaster journeytimesviatheECMLtoLondoncanalsobedemonstratedfromGrantham.GranthamgeneratesasignificantlyhighertriprateperpersonthantheThreeCities(althoughrecognisingitdoesservealargeruralhinterland),includingalargeseasonticketflow.



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Table4.1:SummaryofExistingTravelMarketsTotalNumberofJourneys(pa, 000s)LondonDistrict Population

(000s)Full Season Reduced Total

Leeds Sheffield

DerbyZone 234 170 43 464 677 64 202LeicesterZone 280 312 336 1063 1,711 46 132

NottinghamZone

292 200 30 830 1,060 47 184

PeterboroughZone

167 278 907 864 2,049 76 20

Grantham

Zone 35

74

218

245

537

20

7

Source:MOIRA.DerbyzoneincludesAmbergate,Belper,Burton,Cromford,Derby,Duffield,LongEaton,Matlock,MatlockBath,Peartree,Spondon,Whatstandwell,WillingtonLeicesterzoneincludesBarrowonSoar,EastMidlandsParkway,Leicester,Loughborough,MarketHaborough,MeltonMowbray,Narborough,Oakham,Sileby,SouthWigston,SystonNottinghamzoneincludesNottinghamPeterboroughzoneincludesPeterborough,Spalding,StamfordandWhittleseaGranthamzoneincludesGrantham4.2.2 Characteristics of Current ServicesServicestoLondonviatheMMLaresignificantlylessattractivecomparedwithotherlongerdistanceroutesintheUK.WhilsttheDerbytoSheffieldsectionhasrecentlybenefitedfromlinespeedimprovementspermitting125mphoperation,othersectionsarerestrictedto just100-110mph.Furthermorethereareotherpartsoftheroutewherelinespeedsaremuchlower,forexample,60to90mphnearMarketHarboroughandWellingborough.Someofthetunnelsalsohavespeedrestrictionsduetoinadequateclearances.ThesecharacteristicscontrastsharplywiththeECMLandGWMLthathavebenefitedfromvariousinfrastructureschemestoenable125mphoperationonsignificantpartsofeachroute.Similarly,theMMLreceived just1%ofthetotalinvestmentintrackandotherinfrastructureallocatedtolongdistanceroutesbetween1997and2009.AcomparisonoftheNottinghamtoLondon journeytimesversusotherflowsoffersagoodillustrationoftheslowMML journeytimes.SometimingsfromNottinghamtoLondonaresimilartothosefromYork,eventhoughthedistanceviatheECMLisaround50milesfurther.TherelativelyslowspeedsbetweentheThreeCitiesareaandLondon,comparedwithotherexamples,areillustratedinTable4.2.



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Table4.2:SummaryofServiceCharacteristicstoLondonStation Distance(miles) JourneyTime

(mins)Speed(mph)

DerbyviaMML 129 93-109 71-83LeicesterviaMML 99 72 83NottinghamviaMML 127 104-121 63-73LeedsviaECML 186 135-145 77-83YorkviaECML 189 120-130 87-95LiverpoolviaWCML 194 128 91ManchesterviaWCML 196 128 92

Source:NationalRailTimetableAlthoughNottinghambenefitsfrom2tphtoLondon,thesecondtrainissignificantlyslowerthanthefirst(typical journeytimesrangefromabout105minutesforthefasttrainsto120minutesforthesemi-fasttrains).Thedeploymentoftheover30yearoldHighSpeedTrainsontheNottinghamroutewithsloweraccelerationcharacteristicscomparedwiththenewMeridiantrainslimitsthescopetodeliver journeytimeimprovements.Furthermore,thereissignificantcommutingdemandfromselectedMMLstationsclosertoLondon,andtherequirementtoservetheseintermediatestationsleadstoextended journeytimes,particularlyduringthepeakperiods.4.2.3 Drivers of ChangeAlthoughtheactualnumberofpassengersusingtheMMLislowercomparedwithotherlongdistanceroutes,recentgrowthmeansthetotalnumberoftripsisincreasingfast,andovercrowdingproblemswillincreasingoccuronthebusiesttrains.NetworkRailhasrecentlyproducedarangeofgrowthforecastsaspartoftheNetworkRailScenariosandLongDistanceForecastsworkstream3.Growthforecastshavebeenpreparedforanumberofroutesbetween2007and2036,includingtheMMLcorridor.Theforecaststakeaccountoftheplannedhousingandemploymentgrowth,plusotherdemanddrivers.Passengernumbersareexpectedtoincreasebetween35to70%by2036,equatingtoa1-2%increaseperannum.ThesegrowthratesarebroadlysimilartotheoutputsforotherlongdistanceroutestoLondon,includingtheECMLthatalsoincludesimportanttimetablechanges. Additionalcapacitymaythereforeberequiredtoaddresstheseproblems.4.3 OptionstoEnhanceExistingRoutes4.3.1 ContextSheffield,Chesterfield,DerbyandLeicesterhaverecentlybenefitedfromjourneytimereductionstoLondon.ThedeploymentofastandardpatterntimetableontheSheffieldroute,alongsidethedeploymentofmoderndieselMeridiantrainsonthisroute,hashelpedtoreduce journeytimesbyaround10-15minutes.In contrast,the journeytimesbetweenNottinghamandLondonhavenotbeensignificantlyimproved,sothereisanurgentrequirementtodeliverapackageofimprovementsforthiscorridor.4.3.2 Infrastructure ImprovementsStakeholdersintheEastMidlands,SouthYorkshireandelsewherehaveworkedcloselywithNetworkRailtoidentifythescopetodeliverapackageof journeytimesavingsfortheMML. Aschemetosaveabout6minutesbetweenLondonandNottingham,withafurther2

3NetworkRailNetworkRouteUtilisationStrategy,ScenariosandLongDistanceGrowth



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minutesbetweenTrentJunctionandSheffieldtobenefitMMLpassengersfromYorkshire,willbedeliveredduringControlPeriod4(2009-14).TheOfficeofRailRegulationandNetworkRailhaveagreedindicativeschemecostsfortheseimprovements,andtheoutturncostsare69m.Itisvitaltheselinespeedimprovementsaredeliveredinatimelymannertohelpgenerate

journeytimebenefits.Thescaleof journeytimereductionsrelativetothescaleofinvestment,suggeststhisproposaloffersgoodvalueformoney,particularlywhencomparedwithinvestmentinotherpossiblerailorwidertransportschemes,forexample,theM1wideningscheme,ortheSwindontoKembleimprovements(particularlyastheMMLattractsabouttentimesmorepassengers).Similartoprevioustrends,thelevelofinvestmentallocatedtotheMMLcomparedwithotherlongdistanceroutesremainsrelativelysmall.Forexample,theplannedtotalinvestmentintheGWML,ECMLandWCMLbetween2009and2014isup toeighttimesgreaterthantheMML.4.3.3 Timetable ChangesTherequirementtoserveintermediatestationssouthofLeicesterrestrictsthescopetoimprove journeytimes.However,thereissomescope tofurtherreducethetimingsofthefastNottinghamtrain. Atpresent,thisserviceincludesastopatMarketHarborough,incurringa journeytimepenaltyof3minutes.ItisunderstoodthisstophasbeenincludedtoavoidatimetablingconflictbetweenBedfordandLutonthatwouldotherwiseincurasimilar

journeytimepenalty.Ifthepackageoflinespeedimprovementsdescribedaboveweredelivered,thecurrenttimetableconflictswithFirstCapitalConnectserviceswouldbeavoided,potentiallyofferingafurther journeytimereductionof3minutes.Furthertimetablingworkisneededtodemonstratethesesavingscanberealised.4.3.4 ElectrificationThelevelofpoliticalsupportforelectrificationhasincreasedsignificantlysincethepublicationoftheRailWhitePaperinJuly2007.Growingconcernaboutclimatechange,coupledwiththecostandsecurityofenergyisaddingtotheseenvironmentalpressures,hasresultedingreaterGovernmentsupportforaprogrammeofelectrification.NetworkRailhasrecentlypublishedtheresultsfrominitialassessmentstoexaminethebenefitsandcostsassociatedwithelectrification.ThestudysuggestedtheelectrificationoftheMMLfromBedfordtoSheffield,plusaspurtoNottinghamhadaverystrongfinancialcase,withthebenefitsofreducedoperatingcostsandincrementalrevenueoutweighingthecapitalcosts.Thisoutcomeisrelativelyunusual,sincewidersocietalbenefitsareincludedtomaketheeconomiccasefortransportinvestment.Modernelectricunitsofferbetteraccelerationcharacteristicsthandieseltrains,andthisisbeneficialwhenacceleratingbacktolinespeed.ElectrificationoftheMMLcouldfurtherreducethe journeytimesdescribedabovebyupto3minutesbetweentheThreeCitiesandLondon.4.3.5 Nottingham StationTheexistingtracklayoutandsignallingcapabilityservingthewesternapproachtoNottinghamstationrepresentsamajorconstraint,withtrainsfrequentlydelayed.Asaresult,

journeytimestowardsNottinghamareextendedtoreflectthesecapacityconstraints. About10mhasbeenallocatedbyNetworkRailtohelpresolvethesecapacityconflicts,andthiscouldhelptoreducetheamountofpathingtimeincludinginthetimetable.Itisestimatedtimingscouldbereducedby1-2minutesasaresultofdeliveringthisscheme.4.3.6 Summary of Journey Time Improvements to LondonTable4.3illustratesthepossiblereductionin journeytimesfromDerby,LeicesterandNottinghamtoLondon,andpresentedasarange.Nottinghamcouldbenefitfromthelargest

journeytimereductionstoLondonfromtheThreeCitiesarea,andthereispotentialtoL:\211000\211226 HSRTOTHEEASTMDLANDS\4INTERNALPROJECT OveArup&Partners LtdPage21DATA\4-05ARUPREPORTS\FNALREPORT\FINALREPORT(2)0312 Final 30November200909ISSUE.DOC


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reducetheoverall journeytimesdowntoaround90minutes.Thisrepresentsalongtermaspiration,andmightbeachievedwhentheEastMidlandsTrainsfranchiseisre-specified.Table4.3:SummaryofJourneyTimeReductionstoLondonThro

DescriptionofProposals

Derby(minutes) Leicester(minutes) Nottingham(minutes)

LineSpeedImprovements

6 4 6

TimetableChanges(MarketHarborough)

0 0 3

Electrification 2-3 1-2 2-3NottinghamStation 0 0 1-2TotalSavings(mins) 8-9 5-6 12-14

Source:Arupestimate4.3.7 Other Rail CorridorsItisclearthatitwillbeimportanttodelivera packageofimprovementsthatwouldbenefitrailservicesbetweenLondonandtheThreeCities.However,thescopetoimproveotherlinksmustalsobeconsidered,particularlyastherelativeperformanceoftheseroutesfromselectedpartsoftheEastMidlandsissignificantlyworsecomparedwithotherexamples.Nottinghamisadverselyaffectedbyslowcrosscountryconnections,withspeedstoLeeds,theNorthWest,LincolnandtheWestMidlandssignificantlyslowerthanmanyotherroutes,forexample,fromBirmingham.Furtherworkisneededtoidentifypackagesofimprovementstoaddresstheselimitations.4.4 WiderEconomicBenefitsofMidlandMainLineUpgradeThissectionsetsoutthefindingsofthewidereconomicbenefitsanalysisforupgradeoftheMidlandMainLine.ThebackgroundandmethodologytothisapproachisidenticaltothatusedfortheanalysisofthehighspeedoptionsandisdescribedindetailinChapter3.Table4.4:AnnualProductivityGainsof(m,2002prices),AdditionaltoStandardTransportUserBenefits,forScenariosforEnhancementstoExistingRoutes

AnnualProductivityGains

MidlandMainLineSheffieldCR 3.9(3- 3.9)DerbyHMA 1.9(1.7- 2.4)LeicesterHMA 0.9(0.9- 0.9)NottinghamHMA 4.3(3.5- 4.3)London 6.6(6.1- 7.3)Total 17.7(15.319.0)



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Note:CentralresultsshownfirstwithsensitivityrangesinbracketsTheanalysissuggeststhatenhancementstotheMidlandMainLinecoulddeliverbetween15mand19minproductivitybenefitsperannum,whichequatesto0.5billionto0.7billioninproductivitygainswhenevaluatedoveratypical60yearappraisalperiodanddiscountedto2002prices.Ofthis,overhalfaccruestotheEastMidlands,withallHMAsbenefittingfromproductivitygains.Table4.5:60 YearNetPresent Value(m,2002prices)ofScenariosforEnhancementstoExistingRoutes

60yrNPV (m,2002prices)MMLupgradeandelectrification

Total 600(538659)ThreeCities 351(307388)

Note:Centralresultsshownfirstwithsensitivityrangesinbrackets4.5 ConclusionsThereisastrongcaseforelectrifyingandupgradingtheMidlandMainLine.Itwouldincreasecapacityonthelinemeetingincreasingpassengerdemand,leadtofaster journeytimes,providealowercarbonalternativetodieseltrains,supporttheeconomicandpopulationgrowthaspirationsoftheThreeCitiesandtheSheffieldCityRegion,andoffervalueformoney. ThecasefortheupgradeoftheMidlandMainLineisbasedonthesizeandscale

ofthe

Sheffield

City

Region

and

the

Three

Cities

of

the

East

Midlands.

The

Midland

MainLinelinksthreeoftheninelargesturbanareasinEnglandSheffield,NottinghamandLeicesterandDerbytotheWorldCityofLondon.TheThreeCitiesofDerby,LeicesterandNottinghamandtheSheffieldCityRegioncontainsalmost4millionpeopleand2.5million jobs.ItalsoincludesotherimportanteconomiccentressuchasChesterfield,Loughborough,Kettering,Wellingborough,BedfordandLuton.

AfasterandmorereliabletrainservicetoLondonwouldboosttheeconomiesofthecitiesservedbytheMidlandMainLineandhelprealisetheireconomicpotential.WithelectrificationandtrackimprovementsLeicestercouldbewithinanhourofStPancras,DerbyandNottinghamwithin90minutesandSheffieldwellwithintwohours.Thiswillmaketraintravelamuchmoreattractiveoptionandhelprelievecongestiononthemotorwaynetwork.Itisestimated thattheupgradeandelectrificationwouldbeworth15millionto19millionperyearinproductivitygains,inadditiontostandardtransportbenefits,totheThreeCities,theSheffieldCityRegionandLondon.

AnimprovedMidlandMainLinewouldsupportthedeliveryofplanledgrowth,intheEastMidlands,EnglandsfastestgrowingRegion,andintheSheffieldCityRegionwithhighlevelsofexpectedgrowth.TheMidlandMainLineservestheMiltonKeynesSouthMidlandsGrowthArea,whichalonewilldeliver224,200homesbetween2001and2026.ThelinealsoservestheThreeCitiesandSouthYorkshireGrowthPointareas.WithpopulationprojectionsestimatingthatthepopulationoftheEastMidlandswillgrowby25%makingitthefastestgrowingregioninthecountry,thereisaneedtodelivertheinfrastructurethatwillenablethedeliveryofthisscaleofplanledgrowth.

AnelectrifiedMidlandMainLinewillformakeypartofthenationalnetworkforthe21stcentury.AsanimportantstrategicconnectionbetweenLondon,theThree



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CitiesandSheffieldCityRegionthisrouteconnectskeyurbancentres. AstheonlymainlinetoLondonthathasnotbeenorplannedtobeelectrifieditactsasthefinalcomponentinthecreationaneffectivenationalnetwork.Itwillenhancethecapacityforrailfreightonthelineservingintermodalsites,helpingtorelievecongestiononthemotorwaynetwork.ItwillcomplementandcouldlinkDerby,NottinghamandSheffieldtothepotentialhighspeedrailroutetotheWestMidlands.IfthiswastooccuritwouldfreeupcapacityontheexistinglineandthereforebeofbenefittothoseplacesnotdirectlyservedbythehighspeedlinksuchasLeicester.

ElectrificationwillreducecurrentrouteCO2emissionsbyaround40%,providingalowercarbonalternativeandhelpingtodeliverthechallengingtargetsintheGovernmentsLowCarbonTransitionPlan.

Electrificationwillincreasecapacity,enablingmoreandlongertrainsandgreaterreliability.Thisisessentialtocaterforplannedgrowthandstrongdemand.Passengernumbershavealreadygrownby122%since1997twicetherateoftheECMLandGWML.TimetableimprovementsincludingextraservicestoDerbyandNottingham(andmorerecentlyCorby)havecreatedscopetoimprovejourneytimes.

ThetrackisalreadyelectrifiedasfarasBedfordthisishalfofthedistancetoLeicesterandalmostathirdofthewaytoSheffield.Furtherelectrificationwouldbebetteruseofexistingrailassetsbyhelpingtocreatestrategicdiversionaryroutes,forexamplefromtheEastCoastMainLinefreeingupcapacityonthisline.AdditionallyelectrifyingthelinebetweenSheffieldandLeedswouldreduce journeytimes,increasethefrequencyofthefastesttrains,reduceovercrowdingandultimatelystrengthenconnectivitybetweenthetwocityregions.

Electrificationwillsavemoney.NetworkRail4 saythatelectrificationoftheMidlandMainLinehasanetindustrycostsavingratherthannetcostovertheappraisalperiodof60years- effectivelymeaningthatithasasaninfinitebenefitcostratio.

TheMidlandMainLineistheslowestofthemainlinestoLondonbecauseithashadverylittleinvestmentfordecades.Whereas9billionhasbeenrecentlyinvestedintheWestCoastMainLinetoenable125mphoperation,only69millionisallocatedforimprovementstotheMidlandMainLineduringthenextControlPeriod(2009-14)upto8timeslessthanWestCoastMainLine.Infact,moreinvestmentisplannedforcarparkupgradesontheWestCoastMainLinecomparedwiththeentireMidlandMainLine.

Electrificationmakesfundamentaleconomicsense.ItisanintegralpartofDeliveringaSustainableTransportStrategy,thelatestgovernmentguidanceontransport.Thisaimstoensurethattheentirenetworkfacilitatingeconomicgrowth,whilstreducingcarbonemissions,promotinghealthandsocialinclusionandimprovingqualityof

life.

4NetworkRailDraftElectrificationRouteUtilisationStrategy,May2009



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5 Developing a Coherent20 to 30 Year Rail Strategyfor the Three Cities5.1 IntroductionTheopportunitiesforhighspeedrailtoservetheThreeCitiesareamustbedevelopedaspartofawidercoherentstrategy,coveringa20-30 yearperiod.Thislongertermstrategymustfocustowardsaddressingcapacityconstraintsthatcurrentlyaffectexistingroutes,andaddresstheinterfacebetweenthehighspeedrailcorridorsandclassiclines.However,inresponsetothelikelytimescalestodeliverhighspeedrail,thefuturestrategymustencompassapackageofshorttomediumtermenhancementstoo,helpingtostrengthenconnectivitybetweenmajortravelmarketsincludingLondon,YorkshireandtheNorthfromtheThreeCities.Inparticularitisimportantto emphasise: Thecaseforupgradestoexistingroutestoaddresscapacityconstraintsandprovide

improvedconnectivityintheshorttomediumterm,giventhathighspeedrailisalongtermproposition(constructionofanewrouteisunlikelytobecompletedforatleast20years,possiblymuchlongerforittoreachtheEastMidlands);

Theneedtoconsidertheinterfacebetweenhighspeedservicesandlinesandexistingrailroutes;and

Theimportanceofimprovedconnectivitywithincityregionsandbetweenneighbouringcityregionsthroughconventionalrailandlightrail.

5.2 TheCaseforUpgradestoExistingLinesItisclearthatwhilstthepotentialbenefitsofHighSpeedRailtotheThreeCitieswouldbesubstantialanditsimpactwouldbetransformational,therewouldbelongtimescales(20-30yearsminimum)andsignificantcostsandriskstodelivery.Theanalysisshowsthatmajorbenefitstothetwocityregionscouldbeachievedthroughupgradestoexistinglines.AnyHighSpeedRailroutewillneedtointerfacewithexistinglines(particularlyasitislikelytobebuiltinphases),itwillimpactoncapacityonanddemandforservicesonexistingroutes,anditwillrequirelocalandregionaltransportnetworkstoactasfeeders.Table5.1overleafsetsoutsomeoftheissueswhen consideringthescopeforHighSpeedRailalongsideupgradestoexistingroutes.Assetoutinchapter4,thereisastrongcaseforapackageofcapacityand journey-timeenhancementstotheMidlandMainLine(includingelectrificationoftheMidlandMainLine).Thesebenefitscouldbedeliveredintheshort-to-mediumterm,farmorequicklythanHighSpeedRail,andtheseinterventionswouldbesignificantlymoreaffordableandposefarfewerriskstodelivery.



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Table5.1IssuestoConsiderinComparingBenefitsandProblems /IssuesbetweenHighSpeedRailandUpgradestoExistingRoutes

NewHighSpeedRail UpgradesofExistingRoutesStepchangeinjourneytimes,scopetotransformconnectivity Incrementaljourneytimereductionsachieved

Reducedland-take,andpotentialcostandtimesavingsMoreaffordable,strongoverlapwithexistingfundingcommitments,andoffersscopeforearlywins

Strongvalueformoneyonsomecorridors

Improvedenvironmentalperformancefromelectrification

Benefits

Scopefornewconnectionstoexistingroutes(e.g.Leeds/SheffieldtoECML)

Requiressignificantland-take Impactsareincremental,nottransformational

Affordability- highercostsincurred SmallercapacityincreasesonsomeroutesLongertimescalesduetoplanningprocessesandcost SomedisruptionduringconstructionMaystillneedtousepartsofexistingconventionalrouteswithimplicationsforcapacityforotherservices

Problems/issues

Carbonemissionsaregreaterthanforelectrifiedconventionalrail

Lessdisruptiontoexistingnetwork

Releasescapacityonexistingnetwork

5.3 InterfacesBetweenaPossibleHighSpeedandtheConventionalRailNetworks

5.3.1 OverviewAmainissuewithanyhighspeedroutewillbecompatibilitywiththecurrentnetwork,intermsofthecapacityofthenetworkandtraincharacteristics.ManyTGVservicesinFranceswitchatvariouspointsfromhighspeedtoconventionalrailroutes.ManyUKcitycentrestationsarealreadyoperatingatornearcapacity,andmanystationapproachesareconstrainedintermsofspeedandcapacity.Howeverhighspeedservicesmayusetheseroutestoaccesscitycentres.Whileitcanbeexpectedthatsomeofthecurrentfastinter-urbanserviceswillbeabstractedtonewroutes,theirplacemaybetakenbysemifastservicesprimarilyservingintermediatecallingpointsnotservedbynewhighspeedservices.Thiswouldhaveimplicationsforassessingtrackcapacity.Thecompatibilityofhighspeedrollingstockusedonnewroutesmayalsobeanissue.Onsomecorridorstheapproachtodeliveringahighspeedroute(orhigherspeedroute)maybethroughupgradingandaugmentingexistinglines.ForinstanceitmaybepossibletoupgradetheEastCoastMainLinetoachievetrainspeedsofupto140mphinplaces(theexistingstockhas140mphcapability,butupgradedsignallingandtrackrevisionswouldberequiredtoenabletrainstorunatthisspeed).Thereisalsoscopetobuildnewsectionsoflinetobypassmaincapacityconstraintsandtocontributetofaster journeytimesandpossiblededicatedhighspeedroutesinthefuture.ForexampletheproposedStafford



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bypassontheWestCoastMainLineisanidentified opportunityfora50kmnewlinetoavoidacongestedarea,withtheopportunitytofutureproofitforhighspeed(300kph)runningcapability.Whilethisisarelativelyshortsectionthecontributionthiscouldmaketoanorth-southlongdistanceroutehasbeenconsidered.5.3.2 The scope for a link from HS2 in the West Midlands to the existing lines

serving Derby and Sheffield

Greenguage21haveidentifiedthepossibilityofaconnectionintheWestMidlands(assumedtobeintheTamwortharea)totheexistingCross-CountryandMidlandMainLineRoutetoDerbyandSheffield.ThiswouldenablehighspeedservicesfromLondon,andpotentiallyHeathrow,torunthroughtoDerbyandSheffield(runningatapproximately125mphontheexistinglines).Theexistinglinewouldneedtobeelectrifiedtoenablethis.Itisestimatedthatthiswouldprovidea17minute journeytimesavingfromDerby.Greenguage21proposethiswouldbeaninterimmeasureuntilHS-NEtotheThreeCitiesandYorkshireiscompleted.ThemainbenefitsofaservicetoderbyandSheffieldviaHS2totheWestMidlandsandthenviaclassiclineswouldbe: Journeytimesavings.AlinktoHS2andelectrificationoftheMMLandcoulddeliver

journeytimesavingsfromLondontoDerby,NottinghamandSheffield.Thesecouldamountto journeytimesavingstoDerbyintheregionof17minutes.ThiswouldbringtheseplaceswithinaneasierdaystraveltoLondonforbusinesstravellers(butwouldnotbewithincommutingdistance);

Capacityreliefonexistinglines.AlinktoHS2andelectrificationofMMLcouldfreeupcapacityontheexistinglinetoenableanadditionaloneortwoservicesperhourtoLondon.Thiswouldmakethecapitalmoreaccessibleandwillbefundamentaltomeetingincreasingdemandfortheservices.ThisbeofparticularbenefittocitieslikeLeicesterandintermediatelocationsclosertoLondonwheretheyarenotdirectlyconnectedtoHS2butwouldexperienceagreaterfrequencyofservice,enablingmorepeopletoaccessmoreproductive jobs;

EnhancingtheimageandprofileofSheffieldandDerby.ProvidingaccesstothehighspeednetworkandelectrifyingtheMidlandMainLinewillenhancetheprofileandtheimageofthemaintownsandcitiesontheline,increasingtheirattractivenessaslocationsinwhichtodobusinessandinvest.AstheonlymainlinetoLondonthatisnotalreadyelectrified,orthatisplannedtobeelectrified,thereisariskthattheplacesalongitwillthemselvesbeleftbehind;

AccesstotheinternationalgatewayofHeathrow.AlinktoHS2couldprovideadirectlinktoHeathrowandCrossrail.Thiscouldencouragemodalshiftfromcarstorailontherouteandenableglobalbusinesstravel;and

EstablishingtheprincipleofahighspeedroutetotheEastMidlands, YorkshireandNorthEast.BylinkinguptoHS2thereisaprecedentsettoextendthehighspeednetworktotheThreeCities,SheffieldCityRegionandbeyond.

5.4 DeliveryRisksandTimescalesAmainfindingoftheworkisthattheoptionstoupgradetoexistinglinesandpossibilityofaHighSpeedRaillinktotheEastMidlandsarenotmutuallyexclusive.ElectrificationandupgradestotheMidlandMainLinewoulddeliversubstantialproductivitybenefits.Greengauge21suggesttheNorthEastroutewillbeconstructedaftertheNorthWestcorridor,buttheremaybeinsufficientlineandterminuscapacityremainingtosupportthealignmentviatheThreeCities.Thiswouldthennecessitatetheconstructionofaseparateterminusandalignment.Thiscouldadverselyaffecttheaffordabilityofthescheme,thusrepresentingakeyrisk.



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Thelengthytimescalestodeliverhighspeedrailschemesformsakeyrisk,highlightingtheimportanceofacomplementaryshorttomediumtermstrategy.HS1tookaround20yearstodeliverfromplanningtocompletion,sohighspeedrailcanonlyplayaroleinthelongerterm.However,therearepotentialrisksthistimescalecouldbefurtherdelayed,particularlygiventhelikelyphasingwithotherroutes,andiftheoverarchingfiscalenvironmentisconstrainedduringtheprojectdevelopment.5.5 StationLocationItshouldnotbeassumedautomaticallythatnewlineswillbeabletouseexistingcitycentrestations.Thecostandpracticaldifficultiesofaccessingcitycentrestationsarelikelytobesubstantial.Trainformationsmayalsobeofagreaterlengththantheexistingstationscanaccommodate.Itwillbeimportanttounderstand,atdifferentlocations,whetherthekeyusersofahighspeedlinewouldarriveatintermodaltransferstations(suchasairports,parkwaystationsornewstationsonintersectingconventionalraillines)orwouldbegeneratedatcitycentrestations,whicharethehubofcommuterandregionalnetworkservices.Itwillbeimportanttoconsidertheseissuesalongsidethewiderdriversforchange.For

instance,

the

possibility

of

major

new

settlements

or

growth

nodes

outside

existing

city

centrescouldprovideopportunitiesfornewstations,andsiteswithdevelopmentpotentialcould,tosomeextent,offsetconstructioncostsofhighspeedstations.However,itisalsoclearthatcitycentresprovide currentlythemaineconomicandservicehubsintheThreeCities,andexistingland-usepoliciesaretosupportapatternofdevelopmentbasedonthesecentres.Thepublictransportnetworkfeedsintocitycentres.ThereisalsosignificantpotentialfordevelopmentandintensificationonbrownfieldsitesinareasinproximitytoNottinghamMidlandstation.Therefore,anystationsinotherlocationscouldalterthespatialdistributionofland-usesandeconomicdevelopment,andtheimplicationsofthiswouldneedtobeconsideredcarefully.AnimportantfeatureofHighSpeedOnebetweenLondonandtheChannelTunnelisthewaythatdevelopmentpotentialaroundthestationswaspackagedaspartofthefundingofthenewline,andthewaythatalignmentoflanduseandregenerationpolicyisrealisingthepotentialtocreatenewhubsofdevelopmentatKingsCross,Stratford,Ebbsfleet,andAshford.Table5.2considerssomeoftheissuesaffectingthechoiceofcitycentreorparkwaystations.Table4.2IssuesinRelationtoCityCentreorParkwayStationsonHighSpeedRailroutes

CityCentre ParkwayStationsStrongconnectivitywithbusinessandotherpublic

transport

links

Usedtoserveintermediatecatchmentswithampleparking

Expansionofexistingstationsiscomplex,expensive& disruptive

Reducesconnectivitytowiderpublictransportnetworksandbusinessjourneytimesavingscouldbeerodedasaresult

Capacityimplicationsforexistingroutes Scopefornewstationstobehubsfordevelopmentandregeneration

Substantialcostsinvolved

5.6 IssuesinRelationtoAlignmentofWiderPoliciesItisclearthatthereisastrongeconomiccaseforimprovementsintheconnectivityfromtheThreeCitiestoLondonanditsinternationalgateways,andalsotoYorkshireandbeyond.Itisalsoclearthathighspeedrail,whilstpotentiallytransformationalintermsofconnectivity



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andtheeconomy,isalongtermproposition.Thereisaneedtosecureintheshorttomediumtermupgradestoexistingnorth-southlines,andbetterconnectivityonexistingrailroutesbetweenandwithinthecityregions.ForthebenefitsofimprovedrailconnectivitytoberealisedthereneedstobeaclearunderstandingofhowrailcansupportthefutureeconomicandspatialdevelopmentoftheThreeCities.Thisneedstobeinformedbyastrong understandingofhowtheareafunctionintermsofthedifferentrolesofandlinkagesbetweenplaces,andhowtheeconomicreachofthecityregionscanbeexpandedandmergedwitheachotherandwithneighbouringconcentrationsofeconomicactivityintheWestMidlands,SheffieldCityRegion,andEastofEngland.Itisalsoimportantthatwidereconomicdevelopment,regenerationandland-usepoliciesarealignedwithstrategiestoimprovetherailnetwork.Thereisanopportunitytoexploitthepotentialofmainstationsasfocalpointsfordevelopment,urbanintensificationandasbusinessandemploymenthubs.HighSpeedOneinLondonandKentprovidesanexampleinthisrespect:therouteprovidesinternationalconnectivity,enhancedregional/commutinglinks,andfourmajorhubsforregeneration,employmentandhousinggrowth.Theconsiderationofthedevelopmentofanationalhighspeedrailnetworkneedstobebasedonanunderstandingofhowkeybusiness,employmentandgrowthlocationssuchastheThreeCitiescanstrengthentheireconomiccontributiontowardsUKplc.5.7 Conclusions5.7.1 Short to Medium Term StrategyApackageofmeasurestoimproveconnectivitybetweenLondonandtheThreeCitiesareaisrecommendedforimplementationwithinthenextfiveyears.TheseimprovementsshouldbedeliveredinatimelymannerduringthenextControlPeriod,helpingtostrengthenconnectivity,particularlybetweenNottinghamandLondon.Stakeholdersshouldcontinuetolobbyforthesemeasures,giventhescaleof journeytimereductionsandtherelativelysmallinvestmentrequired(lessthan70m).ThelinespeedandotherimprovementsformsanintegralpartofthemeasurestoimprovetheMMLduringthenextfiveyears,particularlyastheinvestmentaccountsforaverysmallpercentage oftheoveralltotalinlongerdistanceroutes. TheproposalstoimproveconnectivitytoLondonshouldbeaccompaniedbymeasurestostrengthenlinkageswithothercoredestinations.ThelinksfromNottinghamaresignificantlyslowercomparedwithothercities,forexample,Birmingham.5.7.2 Longer Term StrategyThepublicationofrecentreportssuggeststhereisastrongtransportcaseforhighspeedrailservingtheThreeCitiesarea.Thisanalysis,inconjunctionwiththecalculationofwidereconomicbenefits,indicatesthebenefitcostratio of2.5:1wouldbestrengthenedbytheinclusionofthesewidereconomicbenefitsintotheoverallbusinesscase.StakeholdersintheThreeCitiesarea,andthewiderEastMidlands,shouldcontinue

East Midlands The Case for High Speed Rail to the Three Cities

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