East Asia and Pacific Regional Outlook
27
1 Ekaterine Vashakmadze World Bank June 2013 Global Economic Prospect s East Asia & Pacific Regional Outlook http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutl
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http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Growth in the East Asia & the Pacific region slowed to 7.5 percent in 2012, which nevertheless represented 40 percent of global growth. The slowdown was due to slower growth in China, which has started to shift away its economy from excessive reliance on investment and net exports.
Transcript of East Asia and Pacific Regional Outlook
1
Ekaterine VashakmadzeWorld BankJune 2013
Global EconomicProspects
East Asia & PacificRegional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowed to 7.5 percent in 2012.
This nevertheless represented 40 percent of global growth.
Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowed to 7.5 percent in 2012.
This nevertheless represented 40 percent of global growth.
Growth in East Asia and the Pacific region slowed to 7.5 percent in 2012.
This nevertheless represented 40 percent of global growth.
Growth
Source: World Bank; DataStream
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAP
GDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar
Growth
Source: World Bank; DataStream
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAP
GDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar
Growth
Source: World Bank; DataStream
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
ASEAN 4 China Developing excl. EAP World excl. EAP
GDP, % change, quarter-over-quarter, saar
Strong regional growth despite weak external demand environment was achieved due to
• strong domestic demand boosting measures including fiscal stimulus and,
Strong regional growth despite weak external demand environment was achieved due to
• strong domestic demand boosting measures including fiscal stimulus and,
• monetary easing with low interest rates contributing to rapid credit expansion across the region.
Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
07M03
07M04
07M05
07M06
07M07
07M08
07M09
07M10
07M11
07M12
08M01
08M02
08M03
08M04
08M05
08M06
08M07
08M08
08M09
08M10
08M11
08M12
09M01
09M02
09M03
09M04
09M05
09M06
09M07
09M08
09M09
09M10
09M11
09M12
10M01
10M02
10M03
10M04
10M05
10M06
10M07
10M08
10M09
10M10
10M11
10M12
11M01
11M02
11M03
11M04
11M05
11M06
11M07
11M08
11M09
11M10
11M11
11M12
12M01
12M02
12M03
12M04
12M05
12M06
12M07
12M08
12M09
12M10
12M11
12M12
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
China Indonesia Malaysia PhilippinesThailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%
Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
07M03
07M04
07M05
07M06
07M07
07M08
07M09
07M10
07M11
07M12
08M01
08M02
08M03
08M04
08M05
08M06
08M07
08M08
08M09
08M10
08M11
08M12
09M01
09M02
09M03
09M04
09M05
09M06
09M07
09M08
09M09
09M10
09M11
09M12
10M01
10M02
10M03
10M04
10M05
10M06
10M07
10M08
10M09
10M10
10M11
10M12
11M01
11M02
11M03
11M04
11M05
11M06
11M07
11M08
11M09
11M10
11M11
11M12
12M01
12M02
12M03
12M04
12M05
12M06
12M07
12M08
12M09
12M10
12M11
12M12
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
China Indonesia Malaysia PhilippinesThailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%15%
Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
07M03
07M04
07M05
07M06
07M07
07M08
07M09
07M10
07M11
07M12
08M01
08M02
08M03
08M04
08M05
08M06
08M07
08M08
08M09
08M10
08M11
08M12
09M01
09M02
09M03
09M04
09M05
09M06
09M07
09M08
09M09
09M10
09M11
09M12
10M01
10M02
10M03
10M04
10M05
10M06
10M07
10M08
10M09
10M10
10M11
10M12
11M01
11M02
11M03
11M04
11M05
11M06
11M07
11M08
11M09
11M10
11M11
11M12
12M01
12M02
12M03
12M04
12M05
12M06
12M07
12M08
12M09
12M10
12M11
12M12
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
China Indonesia Malaysia PhilippinesThailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%15%
10%
Loose policies
Source: World Bank; IMF, IFS.
07M03
07M04
07M05
07M06
07M07
07M08
07M09
07M10
07M11
07M12
08M01
08M02
08M03
08M04
08M05
08M06
08M07
08M08
08M09
08M10
08M11
08M12
09M01
09M02
09M03
09M04
09M05
09M06
09M07
09M08
09M09
09M10
09M11
09M12
10M01
10M02
10M03
10M04
10M05
10M06
10M07
10M08
10M09
10M10
10M11
10M12
11M01
11M02
11M03
11M04
11M05
11M06
11M07
11M08
11M09
11M10
11M11
11M12
12M01
12M02
12M03
12M04
12M05
12M06
12M07
12M08
12M09
12M10
12M11
12M12
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
China Indonesia Malaysia PhilippinesThailand Vietnam
Real credit growth, % change, year-over-year
20%15%
10%10%
Growth in the region is projected to slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth in the region is projected to slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth in the region is projected to slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors
Growth in the region is projected to slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors• the changing landscape for trade and
industrial production related to yen depreciation,
Growth in the region is projected to slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors• the changing landscape for trade and
industrial production related to yen depreciation,
• lower commodity prices and,
Growth in the region is projected to slow to 7.3 percent in 2013.
Growth outlook also mirrors• the changing landscape for trade and
industrial production related to yen depreciation,
• lower commodity prices and,• capacity constraints.
Growth outlook in 2013
Source: World Bank; DataStream.
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
13Q1
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China Philippines
GDP growth, q/q , saar
Growth outlook in 2013
Source: World Bank; DataStream.
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
13Q1
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
Malaysia Thailand Indonesia China Philippines
GDP growth, q/q , saar
• The regional growth is projected to pick up to 7.5 percent in 2014 and 2015 supported by gradual strengthening of global demand.
• The regional outlook is subject to internal risks associated with a sharp reduction in Chinese investment and quantitative easing in Japan.
Loose policies contributed to rising debt levels
Source: World Bank; IMF; BIS.
Malaysia
China
Thailand
Indonesia
General GovernmentNon-Financial corporationsHH
Share of GDP
Loose policies contributed to rising debt levels
Price pressures in selected countries of the region
Source: World Bank; IMF; BIS.
Source: World Bank; DataStream.
Malaysia
China
Thailand
Indonesia
General GovernmentNon-Financial corporationsHH
Share of GDP
11M05
11M06
11M07
11M08
11M09
11M10
11M11
11M12
12M01
12M02
12M03
12M04
12M05
12M06
12M07
12M08
12M09
12M10
12M11
12M12
13M01
13M02
13M03
13M04
13M05
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
East Asia (excludes China) ChinaIndonesia LaoMalaysia
CPI, % change, 3m/3m, saar
With increasing number of countries facing capacity constraints, regional policies could benefit from becoming less
accommodative.
Policy recommendations
Source: World Bank; DataStream.
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
12M06 12M08 12M10 12M12 13M02 2013M04
Japan China
East Asia excl. China Indonesia
Philippines
Percentage change, 3m/3m, saar
27
Ekaterine VashakmadzeWorld BankJune 2013
Global EconomicProspects
East Asia & PacificRegional Outlook
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
