Earthquakes, Moon phase and Solar flares

Studies relating to Earthquakes, Solar flares and moon phase

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Earthquake Sun Moon connection

Dr A Rajagopal Kamath

The occurrence of earthquakes in the earthquake vulnerable areas is more during the full moon days. Mainly, areas in the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, Andaman etc are most vulnerable for earthquake.The closeness of the moon during the lunar perigee phase ( perigee-closest to the earth ) trigger earthquakes near subduction zones. Subduction zones are areas where the tectonic plates slip under another plate thus creating a displacement. Java trench, where the boundary between Indo Australian plate and Eurasian plate is vulnerable for earthquakes. This resulted in the Sumatra earthquake.

The recent Japan earthquake occurred where the Pacific pate slips below north American plate.

Sun affects the earth in many ways. When there is full moon or lunar perigee, if a Solar flare occurs there is strong chance for an earthquake in earthquake vulnerable areas where strain is accumulated in the subduction zones where the tectonic plate boundary lies.

As I said earlier Solar flares trigger earthquakes. . A solar flare is a large explosion in the Sun's atmosphere. Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), heating plasma to tens of millions of kelvins and accelerating electrons, protons, and heavier ions to near the speed of light. Sun is getting violent duc to the condition called the approach of Solar maxima which is from 2011-2013.

Please note that the 2004 Dec 26 earthquake was preceded by a prominent solar flare

Similarly the Japan earthquake of March 11 2011 was preceded by a solar flare.( report on solar flare attached. Link is given below.

(http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/10/major-solar-flare-erupts-make-auroras-visible-northern/?test=faces )

The position of moon affects the formation of tides. The earth’s interior is in liquid form. That liquid is also vulnerable to the moon’s pull. This pull results in the displacement of tectonic plates, resulting in earthquakes. So if there is a full moon or new moon approaching and if a solar flare occurs then there is chance for an earthquake.

Points

Dec 26 2004 was full moon day. Sumatra earthquake( magnitude 9.3) occurred on that day.

Sept 30 1993 the day before full moon day. Deadly earthquake in Latur( magnitude 6.2)

Oct 23 1991 two days before full moon. Deadly Uttar Kasi earthquake ( magnitude 6.6)

March 27 1964 Alaska earthquake ( magnitude 9.2) occurred before the full moon day.

Nov 21 1833 Sumatra earthquake( Magnitude 9.2) two days later was the full moon day.

Feb 27 2010 Chile earthquake(( Magnitude 8.8) next day was full moon day.

On Jan 19 2011 Pakistan earthquake occurred. It was fullmoon.

Feb 22 2011 Newzealand. Feb 18th was full moon

Now full moon is approaching and it is the time for the SUPER MOON. That is moon is closes to the earth on 19th . It will be less than around 358000 Kms from the earth.

This approach of the moon is the reason behind the occurance of March 11 Honshu earthquake and the fore shocks and after shocks.

There is a chance for a major earthquake especially in the plate boundaries in the Pacific and near Java trench ( Indonesia)during this period. Indian subcontinent is also vulnerable.

LINK

News item on my find.

http://www.hindu.com/2003/11/23/stories/2003112304970400.htm

US Geological survey details regarding my study .

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=1&faqID=109

solar flare news.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/10/major-solar-flare-erupts-make-auroras-visible-northern/?test=faces

Date:19/03/2011 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2011/03/19/stories/2011031950350200.htm

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Kerala - Kozhikode

‘Super Moon could impact earth'

Staff Reporter

Kozhikode: The ‘Super Moon' effect, in which the moon comes closest to earth, will have an adverse impact on the latter, according to the latest study reports in astronomy and cosmology.

A. Rajagopal Kamath, a researcher in the field, says there is a chance for a major tremor especially in the plate boundaries in the Pacific and near the Java trench (Indonesia) coinciding with the ‘Super Moon' on March 19.

A Kozhikode-based freelance researcher in astronomy and cosmology, Mr. Kamath says the Indian subcontinent is also vulnerable to the impact of ‘Super Moon.' According to him, the chance for earthquakes is more during the full moon days. Areas in the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia and Andaman are susceptible to mild tremors.

The proximity of the moon to earth during the lunar perigee triggers earthquakes near subduction zones where the tectonic plates slide under another plate, creating displacement. The reason for the recent Japan earthquake can also be traced to such a slip in the North American plate.

“Sun affects earth in many ways. When there is full moon or lunar perigee and a subsequent solar flare, there is strong chance for an earthquake in vulnerable areas,” Mr. Kamath says. Solar flare is a large explosion in the sun's atmosphere triggering earthquakes. It affects all layers of the solar atmosphere, heating plasma to tens of millions of kelvins and accelerating electrons, protons and heavier ions to near the speed of light.

He points out that that the Sumatra earthquake reported in December 26, 2004, was preceded by a prominent solar flare. It was a solar flare that triggered the latest quake in Japan, according to initial reports.

Similarly, the position of the moon also affects the formation of tides. As earth's interior is in liquid form, it is vulnerable to the moon's pull resulting in the displacement of tectonic plates triggering earthquakes.

Mr. Kamath claims if there is a full moon or new moon with a subsequent solar flare, the chance for a quake will be high.

According to Mr. Kamath, six major earthquakes reported from various parts of the world have proved the link between full moon and quakes. Major tremors in Sumatra (Dec. 26, 2004), Latur (Sept. 30, 1993), Uttar Kasi (Oct. 23, 1991) Alaska (March 27, 1964), Sumatra (Nov. 21, 1833), Chile (Feb. 27, 2010) and Pakistan (Jan. 19, 2011) were reported either on the day of a full moon or just two or three days before or after the full moon.

A similar, but mild case in Kerala was that of the 2003 tremor experienced in Kannur district.

The tremor occurred on a full moon day. Mr. Kamath also points to the quake of 4.7 magnitude on December 12, 2000, in the Idukki-Kottayam area which occurred during a full moon.

© Copyright 2000 - 2009 The Hindu

THE HINDU

Sunday, Nov 23, 2003

GIVEN BELOW a cut and paste version of the detaila.

Of tremors and solar flares

By M. Harish Govind

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM NOV. 22. A freelance researcher has suggested that there could be a correlation between seismic tremors and heightened solar activity coinciding with a full moon or new moon.

Rajagopal Kamath, an LIC official based at Kollam, has gone on to "predict'' a moderate earthquake in the Kerala region during the next two months during full moon or new moon as a severe geomagnetic storm is in progress.

Mr. Kamath says he has been observing the changes in the sun's activity and its impact on seismic activity in the South Indian region for the last four years. He has found what he calls a surprising "link'' between solar activity and earthquakes.

The most recent case was that of the November 8 tremor experienced in Kannur. The tremor, which measured 3.2 on the Richter scale, occurred on a full moon day in the wake of a severe geomagnetic storm that began on October 30.

Mr. Kamath also points to the quake of 4.7 magnitude on December 12, 2000, in the Idukki-Kottayam area and the devastating quake of January 26, 2001, in Gujarat. These quakes also occurred during a full moon and a new moon timed with the solar maxima or intense solar activity as part of a 11-year cycle.

``A solar flare has not always been followed by a quake, but a quake was always preceded by a flare, that too during the solar maxima. The sun is now very active and a quake cannot be ruled out,'' says Mr. Kamath.

The solar flares result in coronal mass ejections that send large amounts of charged particles towards the earth.

These particles interrupt satellite communications and cause severe geomagnetic storms.

The solar flare of August 25, 2001, coincided with a quake in Thrissur district on that day. The flare on September 24, 2001, preceded the Gujarat quake by about 72 hours.

Mr. Kamath says that though quantitative proof is lacking to support his theory, seismologists can conduct a study regarding a possible correlation.

``All that I can say is that there is a chance for a tremor in an area where seismic pressure is on the rise when a solar flare is on and the full moon is approaching,'' he says.

Seismologists, however, point out that more data is needed on solar flares and tremors at a global level to prove or disprove such a correlation.

Says Kushala Rajendran of the Centre for Earth Science Studies here, "one should be able to relate it to not only micro-tremors, but also large earthquakes recorded all over the world.''

Mr. Kamath was in the news last year when he questioned the Archaeology Department's claim regarding the antiquity of a sailing vessel, which was discovered at Thaikkal near Cherthala.

He had pointed out certain technical flaws in the dating and subsequent studies had proved that the ship was not as old as was claimed.

http://www.hindu.com/2003/11/23/stories/2003112304970400.htm

US geological survey.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=1&faqID=109

Q: Can the position of the moon or the planets affect seismicity?

A: The moon, sun, and other planets have an influence on the earth in the form of perturbations (small changes) to the gravitational field. The relative amount of influence is proportional to the objects mass, and inversely proportional to the third power of its distance from the earth.

The stresses induced in the earth by an extraterrestrial mass are proportional to the gravitational field gradient dg( r ) / drand NOT to the gravitational field g( r ).

g( r ) = GMm / r^2

thus:

dg( r ) / dr = -2 * g( r ) / r = -2GMm / r^3

Many studies in the past have shown no significant correlations between the rate of earthquake occurrence and the semi-diurnal tides when using large earthquake catalogs.

Several recent studies, however, have found a correlation between earth tides (caused by the position of the moon relative to the earth) and some types of earthquakes.

One study, for example, concludes that during times of higher earth and ocean tides, such as during times of full or new moon, earthquakes are more likely on shallow thrust faults near the edges of continents and in (underwater) subduction zones. Lunar or solar eclipses represent, of course, special cases of full and new moon, but do not cause any special or different tidal effects from full and new moon. Earth tides (Earth's surface going up and down by a couple of centimeters) and especially ocean tides (surface of the ocean going up and down by a meter or more) raise and lower the confining pressure on shallow, dipping faults near continental edges and in subduction zones. When the confining pressure is lessened, the faults are unclamped and more likely to slip. The increased probability is a factor of ~3 during high tides. But you must stop are realize that the background probability is, in general, very low in a given place and year (fractions of a percent), so that raising this tiny probability by a factor of 3 during high tides still results in a very tiny probability.

There have also been some small but significant correlations reported between the semi-diurnal tides and the rate of occurrence of aftershocks in some volcanic regions, such as Mammoth Lakes. (UC Berkeley)

Major Solar Flare Erupts, May Make Auroras Visible in Northern U.S

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/10/major-solar-flare-erupts-make-auroras-visible-northern/#ixzz1GmqrxFYQ

The sun unleashed another major solar flare Wednesday, a solar storm so powerful it could spawn dazzling northern lights displays that could be visible from even New York City.

The solar flare erupted at 6:23 p.m. EST (2323 GMT), letting loose a wave of charged particles that is aimed straight at Earth and should arrive in the next few days.

When it does, it could supercharge the Earth's aurora borealis -- also known as the Northern Lights -- when the particles interact with the planet's magnetic field and atmosphere. [Photos: Dazzling Auroras Seen by Northern Observers]

"This flare could make the Northern Lights visible as far south as Washington State, central Idaho, northern Wyoming, the Dakotas and east to Chicago, Detroit, NYC and Boston," explains SPACE.com's skywatching columnist Joe Rao. "Of course, we have to hope that the subatomic particles emitted by the flare arrive at the Earth's vicinity during the nighttime hours and of course, that skies are clear!"

Predicting the effects and arrival time of solar storms is very difficult, however, so while the light storm could reach Earth Thursday evening it's not certain it would be visible so far south. Also, bright city lights could render the sky show difficult or impossible to see

Powerful sun storm

The mega sun storm registered as a Class X1.5 event -- one of the most powerful types of flares -- and erupted from a region on the sun near a sunspot called 1166.

It is the second solar flare of this magnitude to occur in the last month. A Class X2.2 storm erupted from the sun on Feb. 14 and was the most powerful solar flare in more than four years.

Space weather trackers classify solar flares in three classes: C, M and X. The weakest types of solar flares are Class C storms, with Class M tempests registering as medium strength, but still powerful, according to a NASA description. The Class X storm is the most powerful type of flare. [Amazing Sun Photos from Space]

In addition to radiation, solar flares can kick up massive eruptions of charged particles and magnetic plasma in what scientists call a coronal mass ejection.

According to Spaceweather.com, a website that monitors space weather and skywatching events, Wednesday's flare may only be the beginning. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting similar events for upcoming days.

"After four years without any X-flares, the sun has produced two of the powerful blasts in less than one month: Feb. 15th and March 9th,"Spaceweather.com wrote. "NOAA forecasters estimate a 5 percent chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours."

When aimed in Earth's direction, strong solar flares can potentially disrupt satellites and power grids, as well as pose a hazard to astronauts on spacecraft. They can also spark dazzling shows of the northern lights, or aurora borealis.

"An X1/2B flare certainly has the potential of producing bright auroras across southern Canada and the northern United States," Rao said.

NOAA space weather officials measure aurora activity using a scale called a planetary K-index, which rates activity levels from zero to nine. Aurora activity from this latest solar flare could reach a K-7 on that scale, Rao explained.

That suggests northern lights activity could be visible across much of Canada and the uppermost states in the United States, according to a NOAA graphic.

A more active sun

The sun has been extremely active over the last month.

In addition to the major X2.2 class flare on Feb. 14, a powerful storm on Feb. 24 unleashed what NASA scientists called a "monster prominence" – a huge tendril of magnetic plasma – from the surface of the sun.

Between Feb. 24 and Feb. 28, NASA's twin Stereo satellites observed an intense coronal mass ejection erupted from the sun's far side, flinging an enormous tongue of plasma out into space. That storm, however, occurred on the opposite side of the sun from Earth, so it posed no threat to satellites, spacecraft, communications and power grids or other terrestrial infrastructure.

Another major storm erupted on March 7 from the region near a sunspot called 1164. That solar eruption kicked up material at a super-fast rate. The plasma wave was measured at a speed of about 1,367 miles per second (2,200 kps) – about 4.9 million mph – making it the fastest coronal mass ejection seen since 2005, according to Spaceweather.com.

NOAA officials said the charged particles from that sun storm event should be reached Earth by today (March 10).

The sun is currently in the midst of an active phase of its 11-year solar weather cycle. The current sun weather cycle is known as Solar Cycle 24.

http://www.russia-ic.com/news/show/11759/

Japan Earthquake and Solar Flare Could Be Linked15.03.2011

Links between the terrible earthquake in Japan and solar activity is not proven yet, but is quite possible, Russian researchers say.

This year March 11 was marked by a powerful earthquake in Japan and a 10-meter-high tsunami wave. During previous night researchers detected a giant solar flare and tend to think that these two events could have been linked with each other.

One of Chilean earthquakes of 2010 was also accompanied with a magnetic storm, which, of course, couldn’t cause the quake, but could have triggered some processes in Earth’s crust. Studies of Russian researchers show that correlation between magnetic storms and earthquakes is 50%, however, relationship between these events is very complex and ambiguous.

The Smithsonian/NASA Astrophysics Data System

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSMIN33A..03JJain, R.American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2007, abstract #IN33A-03We present the study of 682 earthquakes of ¡Ý4.0 magnitude observed during January 1991 to January 2007 in the light of solar flares observed by GOES and SOXS missions in order to explore the possibility of any association between solar flares and earthquakes. Our investigation preliminarily shows that each earthquake under study was preceded by a solar flare of GOES importance B to X class by 10-100 hrs. However, each flare was not found followed by earthquake of magnitude ¡Ý4.0. We classified the earthquake events with respect to their magnitude and further attempted to look for their correlation with GOES importance class and delay time. We found that with the increasing importance of flares the delay in the onset of earthquake reduces. The critical X-ray intensity of the flare to be associated with earthquake is found to be ~10-6 Watts/m2. On the other hand no clear evidence could be established that higher importance flares precede high magnitude earthquakes. Our detailed study of 50 earthquakes associated with solar flares observed by SOXS mission and other wavebands revealed many interesting results such as the location of the flare on the Sun and the delay time in the earthquake and its magnitude. We propose a model explaining the charged particles accelerated during the solar flare and released in the space that undergone further acceleration by interplanetary shocks and produce the ring current in the earth's magnetosphere, which may enhance the process of tectonics plates motion abruptly at fault zones. It is further proposed that such sudden enhancement in the process of tectonic motion of plates in fault zones may increase abruptly the heat gradients on spatial (dT/dx) and temporal (dT/dt) scales responsible for earthquakes.

Keywords: 7526 Magnetic reconnection (2723, 7835)

Can the Moon Cause Earthquakes?

Coast dwellers are accustomed to the daily rhythm of the tides, which are primarily lulled in and out by the gentle gravitational tug of the moon. Some scientists wonder whether the moon's tugging may also influence earthquake activity.

"The same force that raises the 'tides' in the ocean also raises tides in the [Earth's]crust," said Geoff Chester, an astronomer and public affairs officer with the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C.

Chester said the tides in the Earth's crust are subtle—on the order of a few centimeters, as opposed to the several-meter ocean tides.

"We live on the crust, so we don't really notice the deviation from what would be sort of the normal form of the geoid," he said. "So the effect is small but nonetheless there."

(The geoid is an imaginary outline that coincides with the mean sea level in the ocean and its extension through the continents.)

In theory, this slight deformation of the Earth's crust could be sufficient to trigger an earthquake—like the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back.

"Most earthquakes occur on preexisting tectonic lines, and the vast majority do occur as a result of

geophysical processes, but there may be some correlation [between the moon] and earthquakes," Chester said.

For example, he said that in general there is a higher incidence of earthquake activity in the Northern Hemisphere when the moon is north of the Equator and an increase in earthquake activity in the Southern Hemisphere when the moon is south of the Equator.

The moon's orbit is inclined in relation to the Earth, causing the moon's position in the sky to nod north and south on an 18.6-year cycle.

Is the observed correlation between the moon's position in its 18.6-year cycle (or any other lunar phase) and earthquake activity a coincidence or something more? That question, Chester said, is best answered by the U.S. Geological Survey.

"There's no evidence to support that," said John Bellini, a geophysicist with the survey's National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado. "There were some studies in the past that tried to link lunar effects to seismicity [the relative frequency and distribution of earthquakes] and there was nothing found."

Syzygy

James O. Berkland is a Glen Ellen, California-based geologist and editor of Syzygy—An Earthquake Newsletter. He believes the gravitational tugs of the moon, sun, and other planets can influence earthquake activity. Berkland said he has accurately predicted tremors based on factors such as syzygy.

"Syzygy" refers to the alignment of three celestial objects. Syzygy of the sun, Earth, and moon occur twice a month, at the full and new moons. At such times, gravitational forces are at a maximum, especially when the bodies are close together, Berkland said.

The Earth and moon are closest together—at perigee—once a month. The Earth and sun are closest together—at perihelion—once a year. Perihelion currently occurs in early January. Maximum gravitation force occurs when a syzygy and perigee occur on the same day as perihelion.

According to Berkland, seismometers left on the moon by Apollo astronauts show that moonquakes occur most frequently at perigee.

"So we know Earth's gravity triggers moonquakes. I don't think any scientist disputes that," Berkland said. "When I learned that, I went to my former [U.S. Geological Survey] colleagues in Menlo Park [California] and pointed out this really exists, so what's so difficult about turning it around?"

According to Berkland, the U.S. Geological Survey said such a theory is ridiculous—the Earth is 82 times more massive than the moon. Though the Earth can trigger quakes on the moon, they said, the moon is too small to trigger any earthquakes.

But the moon is mostly solid and lacks a liquid core like the Earth, Berkland said. The Earth "is an active, living planet, and so it is not at all surprising that minor gravitational stresses can trigger earthquakes," he said.

Using syzygy and other factors—such as the number of cats and dogs listed in the lost and found in newspaper classified advertisements—Berkland said he accurately predicted several earthquakes, including the October 17, 1989 earthquake in San Francisco, California. Berkland said the number of cats and dogs reported missing goes up prior to an earthquake. The numbers went up significantly prior to the 1989 San Francisco quake, he said.

At least two major quakes may suppoort Berkland's theory. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in

Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon. Likewise, the March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.

According to Berkland, such correlations are more than coincidences. They demonstrate a true connection between the moon and earthquake activity, he said.

But Bellini, the U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist, said, "There is still no known observation of an effect related to the moon and seismicity."

In a follow-up email to National Geographic News, Bellini questioned the scientific validity of Berkland's predictions. He said they appear to be "self-selected statistical analysis of historical seismicity rates and are so vague in time and location that they are certain to be correct."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0523_050523_moonquake.html

http://sciencelinks.jp/j-east/article/200214/000020021402A0449168.php

MOON SUN SEISMOLOGY ACADEMIC REFERENCES

MOON SUN FINANCE

This page gives a listing of academic papers published onMoon Sun seismology since 2000. For early references on earthquake tidal triggering see ICET.

Relation between Moon Phase and Occurrence of Micro-earthquakes in the Tamba PlateauT. IWATA & H. KATAO.

Journal of Geography. Vol 111, No 2. p 248-255. 2002.Abstract: "In the Tamba Plateau, and earthquake swarm area in the Kinki district, Central Japan,

seismicity was activated just after the Hyogo-ken Nanbu(Kobe) Earthquake(Mj7.3), which occurred in an adjacent area in 1995. We found that micro-earthquake activities in the Tamba Plateau corresponded to

moon phase. Occurrences of micro-earthquakes increased after a new moon and a full moon during 1995 and 1996. Before 1995, such a correlation could not be found. The present study suggests a possibility that

the stress change caused by the Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake made seismicity in the Tamba Plateau sensitive to tidal forces."

Tidal Effects on Tectonic EventsJeremy D PESICEK. May 2003.

Dept of Physics & Physical Oceanography. University of North Carolina, Wilmington.

Earthquake Clustering Relative to Lunar Phases in TaiwanCheng-Homg LIN et al

TAO Vol 14, no 3. pp 289-298. Sep 2003.

Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes in Japan Related to the Regional Tectonic Stress .Sachiko Tanaka, Masakazu Ohtake, and Haruo Sato .

Dept of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Japan

Earth Planets Space. 56 511-515. 2004.Abstract: “We observe a correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence that is closely

related to the regional tectonic stress. We investigate the direction of the tidal compressional stress using shallow earthquakes occurring in 100 subregions of Japan for nearly five years. The azimuthal distribution of the compressional stress obtained for the observed earthquake data is compared with that synthesized for random earthquake occurrence. Statistical analysis confirms a significant difference between the observed

and random catalogs for 13 subregions, which include the areas where unusual seismic activities took place recently, and where the possibility of future large earthquakes has been argued. For these subregions,

earthquakes preferentially occur when the tidal compressional stress is near the dominant direction of P-axes of focal mechanisms obtained in the corresponding subregions. This suggests that the tidal stress may

encourage earthquake occurrence when it acts in the direction to increase the regional tectonic stress.”

Earth Tides Can Trigger Shallow Thrust Fault EarthquakesElizabeth S COCHRAN, John E VIDALE & Sachiko TANAKA

Science, Vol 306. Nov 12, 2004.Abstract: "We show a correlation between the occurrence of shallow, thrust earthquakes and the

occurrence of the strongest tides. The rate of earthquakes varies from the background rate by a factor of three with the tidal stress. The highest correlation is found when we assume a coefficient of friction of µ =

0.4 for the crust, although we see good correlation for µ between 0.2 and 0.6. Our results quantify the effect of applied stress on earthquake triggering, a key factor in understanding earthquake nucleation and

cascades whereby one earthquake triggers other."

Planetary Configuration: Implications For Earthquake PredictionN VENKATANATHAN, N RAJESHWARA RAO et al. 2004

Department of Applied Geology, University of Madras.

Earthquakes & The Moon: Syzygy Predictions Fail The TestKENNEDY, Matthew, VIDALE, John E & PARKER, Michael G.

Seismological Research Letters. Sep/Oct 2004. Vol 75. no 5. p 607-612.

Lunisolar Effect on Spring Tides, Earthquakes and TsunamisFritz GACKSTATTER

Journal Coastal Research. Vol 23. Issue 2. Mar 2007.Abstract: "The periods of the three-body system of Sun-Earth-Moon play an important part in tidal

dynamics. In this paper, I deal with extreme proxigean spring tides. To produce these rare and unusually high tides, several tide-raising effects must work together. Hipparcos' lunar evection anomaly is influential.

An interesting phenomenon can be observed in that the first extreme proxigean spring tide in the new millennium happened on January 10, 2005, in new moon phase, and half a synodic month earlier, when the

Moon was full on December 26, 2004, the Christmas Tsunami was triggered in the Indian Ocean."

Seisoacoutic Emission, Earthquakes and Lunar-Solar TidesA S BELYAKOV, V S LAVROV & A V NIKOLAEV

MAIK Nauka/Interperiodica. Vol 420. Number 1. June 2008.

On the reality of the 56-year cycle and the increased probability of large earthquakes for Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii during the period 2008–2011 according to lunar cyclicity

A A GUSEV. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology. Vol 2. No 6. pp 424-434. Dec 2008.Abstract: "A 56-year cyclicity in the occurrence of large Kamchatka earthquakes has been previously

detected. This is another manifestation of the tendency for the timing of large Kamchatka earthquakes to be synchronized to the cycles related to the period To of rotation of the lunar nodes found by V.A. Shirokov in 1974. He identified cycles of 18.6 years = To and 6.2 years = To/3, while the period of the 56-year cycle is

3To. The genuineness of that phenomenon had to be revised in connection with the occurrence of a large (M w = 7.8) earthquake in Kamchatka at the end of 1997, in violation of the 56-year cyclicity. It turned out that,

even though the 56-year cycle has become less distinct after the 1997 event, the cyclicity itself has

remained statistically significant. A byproduct is an updated forecast of earthquake hazard for Kamchatka. The update is necessary in view of the approaching hazardous period of 2008–2011. It is found that,

assuming the validity of these empirical tendencies, the expected rate of large earthquakes off Kamchatka for the period of August 2008 to October 2011 will be four times as high as the long-term mean. We derive the first-ever estimate of future hazard in terms of felt intensity for specified soil conditions (the so-called

average soil) at a specified site (the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii). For these soil conditions, the estimated probability of at least one shock of intensity VII or greater during the period specified above is

equal to 0.39 ± 0.15. The expected rate of single events or sets of events with M w ≥ 7.6 in Kamchatka during this period is 0.76 ± 0.25."

Evidence of Earthquake Triggering by The Solid Earth TidesLaurent METIVIER, et al.

Earth & Planetary Science Letters. Feb 2009. 278. p 370-375.Abstract: "Clear evidence for earthquake triggering by the earth tides has remained elusive for more than a century. Using the largest global earthquake catalog available (the NEIC catalog with 442412 events), we observe a clear correlation (with 99% confidence) between the phase of the solid Earth tide and the timing of seismic events: earthquakes occur slightly more often at the time of ground uplift by the Earth tide, i.e.

when normal stresses are reduced within the lithosphere. We observe that this phase distribution anomaly is larger for smaller and shallower earthquakes. Although earthquakes in regions with dominantly normal and strike-slip faulting seem to exhibit more tidal triggering than regions dominated by thrust faulting, there is no statistically significant evidence for a focal mechanism-dependence on earthquake triggering. Finally,

we show here that it is highly probable that the observed triggering is caused by the solid Earth tide, rather than by loading from the ocean or atmospheric tides. Although an additional impact due to loading from

ocean tides is possible and probable, we cannot detect it here because the earthquake database is not sufficiently complete and homogeneous (more small magnitude earthquakes in oceanic areas are needed). Our results are consistent with the idea of a damped sensitivity of earthquake initiation to stress change—an event is slightly more probable (0.5 to 1.0%) when the tidal displacement is maximum, particularly for

small and shallow events."

Tides, Earthquakes, and VolcanoesJunzo KASAHARA

Science. Vol 297. no 5580. pp 348-349. Jul 19, 2009.Summary: "Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are caused primarily by plate tectonics. But as Kasahara explains in his Perspective, several recent studies provide evidence that tidal forces influence earthquakes associated with volcanic activity. This idea was first suggested in the 1930s, but the forces involved were long considered too weak and the evidence too limited. Recent results from the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the

Pacific show a particularly clear diurnal pattern attributed to ocean tides."

Tremor-tide Correlations and Near-Lithostatic Pore Pressures at ParkfieldAmanda THOMAS

University of California, Berkeley. Dec 2009Abstract: "New observations of tidal triggering of non-volcanic tremor near Parkfield, CA present a

unique opportunity to better understand the nature of tremor and the conditions under which it occurs. Here we perform a full tidal analysis to determine the stress orientations and magnitudes that favor tremor generation on the lower-crustal San Andreas fault. Our results show that extremely small shear stress

perturbations primarily influence tremor activity levels while much larger normal stress fluctuations and stressing rates have little to no influence. These findings are indicative of near-lithostatic pore pressures in

the deep San Andreas fault zone and suggest that low effective normal stresses explain the response of non-volcanic tremor to tidal forcing."

Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes Precursory to the Recent Sumatra Megathrust Earthquakes.Sachiko TANAKA National Research Institute for Earth Science & Disaster Prevention, Japan

Geophyisical Research Letters. Jan 21, 2010. doi:10.1029/2009GL041581Abstract: "I observed tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the three giant earthquakes occurring

off Sumatra on 26 December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12 September 2007 (Mw 8.5). I

measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence in and around the focal regions of these megathrust earthquakes. The result of statistical analysis indicates that a high correlation appeared for several to ten years preceding the occurrence of the large earthquakes. The correlation vanished after the main events. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre-seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical

consequence of the tidal stress change."

EARTH TIDES AND EARTHQUAKES Vinayak G. KOLVANKAR*, Samrudha MORE# and Nisha THAKUR#.

*C/O Computer Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre. Mumbai 400085, India. # Project Trainees from BVMIT CBD Belapur, Mumbai, India.

New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter. No 57. p 54. Dec 2010. Abstract: "Earth tides trigger earthquakes, which is an established fact. In this paper we try to find out the characteristics of the earthquake triggering pattern by Earth tides, utilizing over 5 hundred thousand events from NEICUSGS earthquake catalogue for global earthquakes with magnitude range of 2-10. We studied different patterns of the triggered earthquakes for different ranges of periods, magnitudes, depths, latitudes and longitudes. Although different researchers have made similar studies utilizing different regions of the globe with different fault types, we have studied this effect of earthquakes triggered by Earth tides for the

entire globe and hence no particular fault type was considered. This study conducted for earthquakes in two different periods (1973 - 1989 and 1990 – 2008) indicates that Earth tides trigger earthquakes at all depths and up to magnitude 5.0. The lateral stresses applied during Earth tides close to full Moon phase are found to be more effective than those stresses of Earth tides during the new Moon phase. However, close to new

moon phase, earthquakes of magnitude up to 3.0 and at shallow focus range up to 10 km are triggered directly by the combined pull from Moon and Sun. A study is conducted for one of the high seismicity area

utilizing the patterns of earthquakes triggered by Earth tides, obtained for consecutive periods, which provides good idea about the periodical stresses built up prior to major earthquakes. The Earth tide plots for

different smaller areas (typically 2000 X 2000 Km) in the high seismicity regions show quick changes. Foreshocks and aftershocks of major events were found to align in a column representing range of Sun-

Earth-Moon (SEM) angles. In the aftershocks, this column might continue in the foreshock column or shift to adjacent column or any other column depending on the change in the geometry and orientation of the

fault where major earthquake occurs."

ARTICLES

Can the Moon Cause Earthquakes?John ROACH

National Geographic News. May 23, 2005.

Moon Linked To Earthquakes At LastNew Scientist. Feb 4, 2009.

Sun Moon Trigger San Andreas Tremors, StudyReuters. Dec 23, 2009.

Moon, Sun Could Help Trigger Powerful Earthquakes.Asia News Network. Feb 9, 2010.

Great Quake Coming, Feel The Earth TidesNew Scientist. p 16. Feb 27, 2010.

COMPARISON OF RESULTS OF EARTH TIDES OBSERVATIONS WITH THOSE OF OTHER ASTRO-GEOPHYSICAL DISCIPLINES

http://www.astro.oma.be/ICET/icetdb/7_42.html

Sun and Moon Trigger Deep Tremors on San Andreas Fault

ScienceDaily (Dec. 25, 2009) — The faint tug of the sun and moon on the San Andreas Fault stimulates tremors deep underground, suggesting that the rock 15 miles below is lubricated with highly pressurized water that allows the rock to slip with little effort, according to a new study by University of California, Berkeley, seismologists.

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"Tremors seem to be extremely sensitive to minute stress changes," said Roland Bürgmann, UC Berkeley professor of earth and planetary science. "Seismic waves from the other side of the planet triggered tremors on the Cascadia subduction zone off the coast of Washington state after the Sumatra earthquake last year, while the Denali earthquake in 2002 triggered tremors on a number of faults in California. Now we also see that tides -- the daily lunar and solar tides -- very strongly modulate tremors."

In a paper appearing in the Dec. 24 issue of the journal Nature, UC Berkeley graduate student Amanda M. Thomas, seismologist Robert Nadeau of the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and Bürgmann argue that this extreme sensitivity to stress -- and specifically to shearing stress along the fault -- means that the water deep underground is under extreme pressure.

"The big finding is that there is very high fluid pressure down there, that is, lithostatic pressure, which means pressure equivalent to the load of all rock above it, 15 to 30 kilometers (10 to 20 miles) of rock," Nadeau said. "Water under very high pressure essentially lubricates the rock, making the fault very weak."

Though tides raised in the Earth by the sun and moon are not known to trigger earthquakes directly, they can trigger swarms of deep tremors, which could increase the likelihood of quakes on the fault above the tremor zone, the researchers say. At other fault zones, such as at Cascadia, swarms of tremors in the ductile zone deep underground correlate with slip at depth as well as increased stress on the shallower "seismogenic zone," where earthquakes are generated. The situation on the San Andreas Fault is not so clear, however.

"These tremors represent slip along the fault 25 kilometers (15 miles) underground, and this slip should push the fault zone above in a similar pattern," Bürgmann said. "But it seems like it must be very subtle, because we actually don't see a tidal signal in regular earthquakes. Even though the earthquake zone also sees the tidal stress and also feels the added periodic behavior of the tremor below, they don't seem to be very bothered."

Nevertheless, said Nadeau, "It is certainly in the realm of reasonable conjecture that tremors are stressing the fault zone above it. The deep San Andreas Fault is moving faster when tremors are more active, presumably stressing the seismogenic zone, loading the fault a little bit faster. And that may have a relationship to stimulating earthquake activity."

Seismologists were surprised when tremors were first discovered more than seven years ago, since the rock at that depth -- for the San Andreas Fault, between 15 and 30 kilometers (10 to 20 miles) underground -- is not brittle and subject to fracture, but deformable, like peanut butter. They called them non-volcanic tremors to distinguish them from tremors caused by fluid -- water or magma -- fracturing and flowing through rock under volcanoes. It was not clear, however, what caused the non-volcanic tremors, which are on the order of a magnitude 1 earthquake.

To learn more about the source of these tremors, UC Berkeley seismologists began looking for tremors five years ago in seismic recordings from the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault obtained from sensitive bore-hole seismometers placed underground as part of the UC Berkeley's High-Resolution Seismic Network. Using eight years of tremor data, Thomas, Bürgmann and Nadeau correlated tremor activity with the effects of the sun and moon on the crust and with the effects of ocean tides, which are driven by the moon.

They found the strongest effect when the pull on the Earth from the sun and moon sheared the fault in the direction it normally breaks. Because the San Andreas Fault is a right-lateral strike-slip fault, the west side of the fault tends to break north-northwestward, dragging Los Angeles closer to San Francisco.

"When shear stress on a plane parallel to the San Andreas Fault most encourages slipping in its normal slip direction is when we see the maximum tremor rate," Bürgmann said. "The stress is many, many orders of magnitude less than the pressure down there, which was really, really surprising. You essentially could push it with your hand and it would move."

In fact, the shear stress from the sun, moon and ocean tides amount to around 100 Pascals, or one-thousandth atmospheric pressure, whereas the pressure 25 kilometers underground is on the order of 600 megaPascals, or 6 million times greater.

Nadeau and colleagues reported earlier this year that earthquakes in 2003 and 2004 near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault increased both tremor activity and stress on the fault itself.

In addition, Nadeau noted, other scientists have shown small tidal effects on tremors in the Cascadia subduction zone, with increased amplitude during certain periods, though they were unable to distinguish between tugs along the fault and tugs across, or normal to, the fault.

"We were really able to tighten the nuts down on whether it is a normal-fault stress change or an along-fault stress change that is stimulating the tremor," he said. The fact that tremors are triggered by along-fault shear stress "means that fluids are probably the explanation."

It may be that tremors only occur on faults where fluid is trapped deep underground with no cracks or fractures allowing it to squirt away, Nadeau added. That may explain why tremors are not observed on other faults, despite intense searching.

"There is still all lot to learn about tremor and earthquakes in fault zones," he said. "The fact that we find tremors adjacent to a locked fault, like the one at Parkfield, makes you think there are some more important relationships going on here, and we need to study it more."

The work was supported by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Geological Survey.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091223133347.htm

Moon linked to earthquakes at last

MASSIVE earthquakes, such as the one that triggered the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004, could be predicted years in advance by monitoring tremors caused by "Earth tides".

The gravitational pull of the sun and moon deforms the Earth's crust and upper mantle, creating bulges and dips in the planet called Earth tides. These can reduce the pressure on tectonic plates, causing them to slip past each other, inducing tremors.

Sachiko Tanaka of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention in Tsukuba, Japan, studied 1126 quakes that happened along the Sumatran fault, where the Eurasian plate slides below the Indo-Australian plate, between 1976 and 2008. He found that in the years leading up to the 2004 earthquake, more tremors occurred when the pull of the daily Earth tides was at its strongest than at other times. Tanaka saw the same signal in the run-up to two ...

THE Earth's solid surface, like the oceans, gets deformed by the gravity of the moon and the sun. Geologists have long wondered whether this can lead to earthquakes, and now they finally have an answer.

Besides causing ocean tides, the sun and the moon also pull at the Earth's crust and upper mantle, resulting in daily "Earth tides". At its strongest, this pull can ease enough of the pressure on the tectonic plates for them to slip past each other. But these stresses are about a thousand times weaker than those created by the normal movement of tectonic plates, so it has been difficult to link seismic activity to peak tides.

To see if there is a connection, Laurent Metivier of the National Geographic Institute in Paris, France, and his team analysed records of more than 400,000 earthquakes, 10 times as many as any previous study. They ...

San Francisco fits the pattern - The Sun and Moon could trigger Californian earthquakes

28 October 1989 by JOHN GRIBBIN Magazine issue 1688. Subscribe and save

MAJOR earthquakes around the area of the San Francisco Bay tend to occur close to the time when the Sun is at the most active phase of its roughly 11-year long cycle. On that basis, although the exact timing of the recent disaster that hit San Francisco could not have been predicted, it was clear well in advance that 1989 and 1990 would be high-risk years.

Studies early in the 1980s had also suggested which days of the month, and which times of day, would carry a high earthquake risk for the region: days close to full moon, and times late in the afternoon or early

in the morning, near sunset and sunrise. The 6.9 magnitude earthquake that hit close to 1700 local time on 17 October exactly fits all these patterns. But many physicists find that hard to believe.

Tidal link to earthquakes revealed at last

19:00 22 November 2007 by Catherine Brahic

Mysterious ultra-slow earthquakes, which release the same energy as devastating conventional quakes silently over a few weeks, may be linked to the ebb of tides, a new study suggests.

About every 14 months, on the west coast of North America, something resembling a magnitude 6.5 earthquake happens without anyone noticing.

No one (but seismologists) notices because this so-called "tremor" happens incredibly slowly - instead of lasting seconds, it releases its energy over several weeks.

What triggers tremor is not entirely clear, but it appears to occur mostly around the globe's subduction zones, where plates moving against each other deep beneath the surface - possibly up to 30 kilometres down - cause swarms of tiny earthquakes.

But now, a team at the University of Washington in Seattle, US, has evidence that the ultra-slow-motion quakes, which can move tectonic plates by 2 to 3 centimetres over 3 weeks, are linked to tides, and so to the movement of the Sun and of the Moon.

Deep activity

"Earthquakes don't behave this way," says John Vidale, a seismologist at the University of Washington. "Most don't care whether the tide is high or low."

But when Vidale and his colleagues listened very closely to the three most recent bouts of tremor around Vancouver Island in Canada, they heard something very different to "normal" earthquakes.

Vidale and his colleagues focused on tremor produced at the Cascadia subduction zone, where the oceanic crust in the eastern Pacific dives down beneath northern California and Vancouver Island.

Because of the regularity with which tremor happens in Cascadia, Vidale and his colleagues were able to set up networks of seismographs in the weeks leading up to the last three episodes, in July 2004, September 2005 and January 2007.

What they found was something that people have been looking for since the end of the 19th century.

Tidal search

"Since the late 1800s, seismologists have been trying to connect earthquakes and tides," explains co-author Justin Rubinstein. The theory is that by adding or removing pressure, the gravitational effects of the Sun and Moon pulling on Earth, combined with the effect of water being piled on top of faults, should make it more or less easy for a fault to shift.

"But time and time again people who study the relationship between earthquakes and tides don't see one," says Rubinstein.

That is why he and his colleagues were so excited when they looked at the data collected by their seismic arrays between 2004 and 2007.

"What we see is that tremor seems to pulse," Rubinstein explains. The graphs show that during the two to three weeks of tremor activity, there are stronger and weaker phases, and the timing of these phases corresponds to the timing of the tides.

The final effect is that tremor is stronger when the tide is high and weaker when the tide is low.

"This is a significant piece of work," says Brian Baptie of the British Geological Survey. "People have been looking for links between earthquake activity and tidal cycles for many years, but there is no compelling evidence."

Mystery cause

But how exactly the tides affects tremor remains a mystery.

The simple interpretation, says Rubinstein, would be that water drawn by the tide collects above a fault, pushing it closed. But that would make it more difficult for it to slip, which seems to be the opposite of what the researchers have found.

Another explanation could be that as the fault slides with the weight of the extra water on top, it is "grinding" more, and therefore producing stronger tremor. But the scientists are not yet able to reconcile these two possible effects.

"What is missing is a quantitative analysis of the relative magnitude of the two effects," says Greg Beroza, a seismologist at Stanford University in California, US.

Beroza published findings which strengthen the theory that tremor is caused by a swarm of very slow earthquakes earlier in 2007. He says that tremor in Japan has previously been linked to tides as well.

Journal reference: Science (DOI: 10.1126/science.1150558)

CORRELATION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES WITH LUNAR PHASES IN NORTH CHINA AND ITS MECHANISM

DU PIN-REN (Institute of Geology, China Seismoiogical Bureau, Beijing 100029. China) Strong earthquakes correlate closely with lunar phases in North China and its seismic belts. The times

of most of the strong earthquakes cluster around the times of new moon in North China region and the

Hebei Plain, Hehuai, as well as southern Yellow Sea belts. Most of the events seem to occurrence around

the times of the first quarter in the Tanlu and Fenwei belts. Based on the structures of the crust-upper

mantle for the source regions of some strong earthquakes in North China, possible mechanism of tidal

triggering earthquakes, called triggering model of upwelling fluids driven by the tidal forces, was

discussed. Its main point as follows: (1) The essential condition of strong earthquakes preparation is that

the fluids exist in the crust and upper mantle. (2) The speeding upwelling of the deep fluids is possible. (3)

The tidal force seems to be main one triggering deep fluids speedy upwelling . (4) The deep fluids trigger

the occurrences of strong earthquakes by means of some nonlinear mechanism, such as stress corrosion or

Rebinder effect.

【Key Words 】： Strong earthquakes Lunar phase Tidal force Fluids Lower velocity-high electrical conductivity reservoirs.【Fund 】： “ ”中国地震局 九五 重点项目 (95-04-03-04-01);; 国家攀登项目 (970231003) 【CateGory Index 】： P315.1【DOI 】： CNKI:SUN:DQWX.0.1999-S1-017[

http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX1999S1017.htm

Friday, March 11, 2011

Earthquakes and solar flares? Coincidence?

What do you think?

Quake trigger being a possible solar flare, tsunami times released(TheWeatherSpace.com) -- Japan was hit by a magnitude 8.9 quake on Friday afternoon and it happened when a shockwave from an X-Class flare hit the planet during a 24 hour window.

Scientists do not understand yet what causes earthquakes, however there have been connections to heightened solar activity being one of the many possible triggers.

Meteorologist Kevin Martin studied geomagnetic field patterns in space weather since the early 2000s. TWS Editor Warren Miller woke him up to get his word on the quake triggers.

"I may just be a weather guy, but solar weather has had my interest for years when I noticed the connection", Martin said. "Many past quakes have been connected with solar flare events, including other events such as Gamma Ray Bursts, or GRBs. I am pretty certain these have connections to triggering earthquakes, however I do not yet understand it. Japan's activity may not have happened if it was not for the solar flare activity. Others in weather laughed at me for years for what I worked on in quake triggers, however this just may help put that to rest". [...]

www.spaceweather.comAURORAS INVADE THE USA: Earth's magnetic field is still reverberating from a CME strike on March 10th. During the past 24 hours, Northern Lights have descended as far south as Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan in the United States. [...]

Solar and Lunar Triggers on Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions

In Tome Three the subject of plate tectonics, more commonly known as continental drift, was discussed to some extent. That discussion brought forth the understanding that electrostatic forces are at work in producing the tectonic plates' dynamics. These electrostatic forces result from particle flow along Field lines with the descending limbs interacting with plate boundaries. Further confirmation of this understanding can be found in studies that correlate solar activity, and lunar phases and cycles with the triggering of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

One fact that calls for new perspectives on plate tectonics is that earthquakes are correlated with solar activity. Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, solar flares, radio noise, and solar-induced geomagnetic activity, plays a significant role. A maximum of earthquakes occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity, particularly solar flares. Strong earthquakes take place when the Earth crosses the central meridian of the Sun, and this understanding has been used to successfully predict some quakes. Moreover, the Sun's retrograde motion is linked to earthquakes and other geophysical phenomena, including climate and volcanic activity. These facts alone indicate that the solar-FEM linkage and electrostatic forces are involved in earthquake occurrence.

However, there is much more, as for example in observations of California earthquakes. There is a 22-year solar cycle in San Andreas Fault earthquakes, and an 11-year solar cycle in large earthquakes in southern California. Recent observations of earthquakes in the region disclosed that they have doubled between 1986 and 1989. Furthermore, from August 1988 to February 1989, they were 3.2 times more frequent than the historic rate. Quakes of magnitude 4.5 and greater went from one every four years to one every two months. This increased earthquake activity transpired as a peak in solar activity was taking place.

Variations in gravity, earthquake energy, and solar activity were correlated in another study. Solar activity and quakes have been linked by many researchers, and they all agree that gravitational models do not work. Also revealing the need for new models is the fact that a maximum in earthquakes in some regions occurs shortly after an epoch of very low sunspot activity.

Also demonstrating the global system, plate motions have been observed to follow solar activity at 71 stations around the world. The plates more back and forth as the 11-year solar cycle goes up and down. This is why some regions experience quakes during epochs of low solar activity, while in other regions it is increased solar activity. This indicates that there is a global system, regulated by the Fields, and also involves the solar linkage of FEM and electrostatic forces.

Illustrating the effects of this solar linkage are the correlations between earthquake activity and the Sun's Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). The IMF sector boundary crossings (SBC) cause changes in the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere. Enhanced precipitation of energetic electrons take place as the Earth's magnetic field is disturbed, which is accompanied by changes in wind direction and the size of storms (Vorticity Area Index; VAI), about four days before and after the SBC, with the greatest effect in winter. The SBC are also correlated with lightning and thunderstorms, which display a maximum in winter, as well. Also, large changes in conductivity and electric field variations are global. The IMF and the geomagnetic field (GMF) interact, producing a twelve-month wave with a maximum at the vernal equinox, and are the "result of a common cause." These observations reveal the dynamics of FEM's electrostatic forces, which trigger earthquakes.

The Sun's motion around the barycenter, or the center of mass of the Solar System, which is determined when Jupiter is in conjunction with another of the large planets, has a triggering effect on earthquakes. This and other correlations have led scientists, including the American Geophysical Union, to state that a solar-terrestrial linkage exists. The center of mass also has an influence on solar activity, and is likely to be behind this correlation.

The solar linkage is noted in the fact that solar flares abruptly change the Earth's rotation or length of day (LOD). This altered rotation has been shown to trigger earthquakes. A 120-day oscillation in the LOD, atmospheric zonal circulation, solar activity, the IMF and the GMF are also known.

A global system and its solar linkage have been observed in a number of ways. Different earthquake belts have common active periods, indicating that they are strongly coupled on a global scale. Isotopes, such as radon, are noted at times of earthquakes, and indicate an electrostatic trigger, as well. A global network of earthquakes reveals the need for a new model of the Earth that includes electrostatic forces and global field dynamics (see Chapter 29 for other discussions).

Many plate tectonics theorists dismiss lunar effects, because tides have little effect on the Earth's crust. They criticize any correlation between maximum global tidal forces and quake regions where local tides are not at a maximum, or can even be at a minimum. Meanwhile, studies of lunar phase triggers in 21 earthquakes show that fourteen occurred at the Quarter Phase, five at Full Moon, and two followed an eclipse. Interestingly, the majority of Quarter-Phase quakes took place in the Southeast, in the region of Baton Rouge, Louisiana to Columbia, South Carolina, which surrounds the North Atlantic Field's stem. In contrast, California earthquakes, which are triggered by the dynamics of the descending limb of the Field, show a peak with a three- to four-day delay.

Some scientists claim that the lunar effect is gravitational (i.e., tidal). In fact, one study of 2,000 earthquakes demonstrated that they took place at times when tidal forces where over the epicenter of deep-focus earthquakes. A lunar trigger was instrumental in an earthquake that took place in Parama, Italy in November 1985. Lunar and solar "tidal" components were instrumental in triggering seismic activity in the volcanic areas of Hawaii, the Phlegrean Fields, and Vesuvius. Earthquakes occur more often when the Sun and Moon are in opposition (opposite sides of the Earth) or in conjunction (aligned on one side of the Earth). Both of these configurations have greater gravitational effects, but they are insufficient in themselves to trigger an earthquake gravitationally. Other correlations exist between lunar phase and earthquakes, which only appear to be gravitational.

Undoubtedly, the gravitational effects are too weak, but the correlations show that there is a lunar trigger. The mechanism is revealed when it is understood that there is a lunar trigger on the occurrence of aurora. In fact, sunspot cycles were investigated by using the aurora and earthquake records of ancient China.

Similarly, statistical analysis indicates that there is a lunar effect on geomagnetic activity. When the Moon is within 4o of the ecliptic plane, between Full Moon and Last Quarter (on the morning side of the Earth) there are geomagnetic storms. The Moon triggers particle flow that, through electromagnetic induction of charged particles, disturbs the magnetic field. The influence is electrostatic with the Moon triggering cascades of particle flow, and changing the contour of the electromagnetic characteristics of the Fields (i.e., bow shock, plasma torus, potential gradients, electrostatic repulsion, etc.).

The Earth-Moon system is a single unit that is not solely gravitational in its interactions. Shallow focus earthquakes and moonquakes vary in accord for the years 1971 to 1976. Unusually large quakes in the period between 1950 and 1965 were remarkably numerous for the 20th Century. Though a lunar trigger is apparent, gravitational effects alone are not adequate for explaining the results, as a team of geophysicists state:

"Some ambiguity arises when we attempt to interpret this result within the framework of conventional gravitational models. If the pattern found is due to some physical cause, then this would seem to raise the question of the adequacy of the traditional model. There is reason to believe (on relativistic grounds) that the tidal stresses may not be the only significant stresses of external gravitational origin applied to the Earth. The underlying physical processes remain obscure."

These geophysicists insightfully question the ability of the present Earth model to explain the results.

One physicist disclosed that all major earthquakes can be forecasted simply by observing the lunar surface. Seismic events on both the Earth and Moon are so precisely timed that it is "as if the Moon were in direct contact with the Earth; as if it were its seventh continent." Data from 639 major earthquakes were compared with 370 events listed in NASA's catalog of transient lunar phenomena (TLP) for the period between 1904 and 1967. TLP are luminous (high-energy charged particles) or dark (neutrons) phenomena, which are likely to be the Moon's influence on particle flow. These data made it evident that events on the Earth and the Moon are mutually registered with a time lag of up to three days.

An eight-fold increase in earthquakes has been observed during the First and Last Quarter at closest approach (perigee), with the ascending node pointing toward the Sun around vernal (March) equinox, or the descending node near the September equinox. As occurs with weather, the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle is also involved. One such example was the 2 March 1933 earthquake in Japan, which was one of the most powerful on record (8.9 on the Richter Scale).

The seasonal effects can also be noted in TLP for the years of 1178 to 1982. The greatest occurrence of TLP took place around the December solstice and the March equinox, with the September equinox and June solstice represented less often. The seasonal peaks are fall and winter, as were noted for both earthquakes and weather.

The evidence indicates that there is an electrostatic trigger on earthquakes. The solar wind provides particles in the form of solar plasma, the Earth's magnetosphere becomes enhanced, and the Moon triggers particle cascades along Field lines, which then interact with plate boundaries. The equinoxes are times of greater interaction between the GMF and IMF, and are also times of increased earthquake activity. Lunar phases and mid-phases (a mechanism with a 3-4 day delay) are times of greater probability for triggering particle cascades. Figure 7 shows the influence of these factors in histograms compiled from the analysis of 562 earthquakes. Table 2 displays examples of the ten worst earthquakes in history, and these factors in relation to their occurrence. [Note: this figure and table are not included on this web page, but may be at a later date].

Similar triggers that occur with earthquakes have been observed for volcanic eruptions. The global Field system is apparent in the fact that volcanoes are completely related to plate tectonics. About 80% of the world's active volcanoes are near subduction zones, another 16% are on mid-ocean ridges, and the remaining 4% are at plate-plate boundaries or hotspots in mid-plate. As already reviewed, plate motions follow solar activity, and common sense dictates volcanics do also, because volcanics are strongly related to plate dynamics. A solar linkage is also apparent in volcanic eruptions, such that solar motion and changes in the length of day are correlated with volcanic activity.

Lunar influences on volcanic eruptions are unmistakable. The triggering of some events took place at Full Moon and New Moon. In addition, the cycle between the closest and furthest approach to the Earth (apogee-perigee cycle) is observed in the timing of eruptions. Likewise, micro-earthquake frequencies near an Alaskan volcano were correlated with the oceanic tides, which result from lunar effects. Gravitational changes take place prior to volcanic eruptions, such as those observed at Poas Volcano, Costa Rica. Like earthquakes, this effect cannot be due to gravitational forces alone, because they are far too weak.

Peaks around the equinoxes and solstices reveal the solar linkage. One study disclosed a maximum of volcanic activity for Mount Vesuvius and other volcanoes during the solstices and equinoxes. Other research indicated that lava surfaces in the Halemaumau Crater at Kilauea Volcano stood higher around the solstices than around the equinoxes. Eruptions at Kilauea and Mauna Loa clustered around the December solstice. Fayal, in the Azores, was noted to erupt around the equinoxes. Likewise, a study of 65 flank eruptions at Mount Etna, Italy from 1323 to 1980 disclosed that there were higher than average eruption rates in November just prior to the December solstice, and in March and May around the vernal equinox. Another study of 4,200 eruptions showed a maximum in June, around the time of the solstice. As noted for earthquakes and weather phenomena, seasonal, equinoctial and solstitial peaks in volcanic eruptions are beyond present models of the Earth, and reveal a solar linkage.

These factors are even more supportive of FEM in another study. Volcanic eruptions are more frequent for latitudes north of 30o North Latitude and south of 30o South Latitude, during April or May following the vernal equinox. For the equatorial region it is a June maximum around the solstice. When all latitudes are considered together the peak occurs in March and April, around the vernal equinox. For the period 1500 to 1700 peaks were in winter (January through March) and fall (October to December), but this correlation was not significant.

Volcanic eruption frequency occurs most often in the northern mid-latitudes (30o to 60o North), and less so in the low or equatorial southern latitudes (20o North to 10o South), and each hemisphere has its own history. FEM and its solar linkage is evident in the absence of synchronicity between the hemispheres. The solar linkage activates one hemisphere in one period and the other in another period, and this activation depends on which hemisphere was pointing away from the Sun and the polarity of the IMF at the time of peak solar activity; as occurs with glacial advance.

Evidence indicates that there is an interaction between gravitational and electromagnetic fields in accord with general relativity. Non-gravitational forces are evident in the Earth-Moon system. Furthermore, gravity has been observed to shift during solar eclipses, such as in June 1954. The conclusion of the physicist who performed the original experiment has been relatively ignored. Such observations, he

concludes, can be accounted for "only by the existence of a new field." Once again the Field-dynamical Earth Model (FEM) is called for.

http://www.livingcosmos.com/unity.htm#Solar2