Earthquake Risk Reduction Initiatives in the Caribbean

Les Saintes Earthquake (2006). Damage to church in Northern Dominica

Lloyd Lynch & Walter Salazar

Seismic Research Centre

Univ. of the West Indies

Trinidad and Tobago

Population at Risk for Natural Hazards

11.3 M

2.7 M

0.3 M

16.5 M

3.9 M

2.0 M

1.1 M

25 M42 M3.0 M

4.0 M

5.4 M

6.8 M

6.6 M

Total = 130 MSource: CIA Factbook

Countries with volcanic and seismic hazards in the eastern CaribbeanEarthquake, Volcano and Tsunami Studies in

the Insular CaribbeanEarthquake, Volcano and Tsunami Studies in

the Insular Caribbean

Jurisdiction No Hazards Monitoring AgencyTrinidad &

Tobago1 IS Eq./Ts. UWI-SRC

Barbados 1 IS Eq./Ts. UWI-SRC

OECS States 6 IS Eq./Vo.-1/Ts.

UWI-SRC, GSN-CU*French West

Indies3 FDT Eq./Vo.-

1/Ts.IPGP, BRGM

Montserrat 1 BDT Eq./Vo./Ts.

UWI-SRC

Dutch West Indies

5 DDT Eq.-1/Vo.-1/Ts.

KNMI

Puerto Rico & V. Is.

4 DT Eq./Ts. PRSN

Anguilla 1 BDT Eq./Ts. No Mon.

Dominican Republic

1 IS Eq./Ts. ISU, GSN-CU*

Haiti 1 IS Eq./Ts. No Mon.

Jamaica 1 IS Eq./Ts. UWI-EU

Turks and Caicos Is.

1 BDT Eq./Ts. GSN-CU*

Cuba 1 IS Eq./Ts. CENAIS

Caymans Is. 1 BDT Eq./Ts. CHMA

Bahamas 1 IS Ts. No Mon.

Independent States - 13Dependent Territories - 12Monitoring Agencies - 8* USGS Tsunami Monitoring Stations

-85 W -80 W -75 W -70 W -65 W -60 W

-85 W -80 W -75 W -70 W -65 W -60 W

Longitude

10 N

15 N

20 N

25 NLa

titud

e

10 N

15 N

20 N

25 N

Caribbean earthquakes The instrumental Period

This slide shows earthquakes since 1964. Note that although there is far greater detail, the general pattern is the same

Seismic Research UnitThe University of the West IndiesSt. AugustineTrinidad Tel 868 662 4659 Fax 868 663 9293 e-mail sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

Caribbean Fatalities from Earthquakes and Tsunamis (1500 – 1999)

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

1

10

100

1000

10000

No.

Kill

ed

0

10

20

30

40

Pop

.(Mil)

Earthquake Fatalities (1600-1999)

Total Deaths – ~16,500

Intensity Distribution 1530 - 1900

Region IntensityX IX VIII VII VI

Cuba - 2 10 5 4Jamaica 1 - 1 1 11Haiti 2 2 2 7 2Dom. Rep - 3 3 - 4Puerto Rico - - 2 4 2Virgin Is. - - 2 - 2Lesser Ant., North 1 - 3 3 2Lesser Ant., Central - 2 1 2 3Lesser Ant., South - - - 4 5Barbados - - - - 4Trinidad - - 2 2 4

The Quill, St. Eustatius

The Bottom, Saba

Mt St. Catherine, GrenadaKick ‘em JennyThe Soufriere, St. Vincent

Sulphur Springs, St Lucia

Montagne Pelee, Martinique

MorneMorne Aux Aux DiablesDiables, Dominica, Dominica

Volcanoes of the Eastern Caribbean La La SoufriereSoufriere, ,

GuadeloupeGuadeloupe

SoufriereSoufriere Hills, Hills, MontserratMontserratNevis Peak, Nevis

Mt. Liamuiga, St. Kitts

Map of Stations Contributing Data to the Tsunami Warning Network

http://rmsismo.uprm.edu/Estaciones/estatus.php?maptype=1&stat_type=100

Eastern Caribbean cGPSStations

Motivation for embracing GEMTo improve knowledge of seismic

source zones– Necessary input for tsunami

modeling– Necessity to compute seismic

hazard potential provision for the IBC 2000 or later. This is the building code used by regional Engineers

CA. is Ocean-Ocean Convergent Zone. Most of land surface submerged Tectonic features are inaccessible

Modern instrumentation and state-of-the-art research tools/methods are highly desirable because of the capability to make accurate remote measurements of eq. source and crustal parameters

After John F. Clinton et al.

Average horizontal PGA (in g) with a 475-year return period for average soil, following the logic tree approach. No σ in the attenuation has been considered.

-75.0 -74.5 -74.0 -73.5 -73.0 -72.5 -72.0 -71.5 -71.0 -70.5 -70.0 -69.5 -69.0 -68.5 -68.0

Latitude

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

Lon

gitu

de

Port Au Prince Santo

Domingo

HAITI

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

CUBA

Puerto PlataMontecristi

Les Cayes

Gonaives Santiago

C A R I B B E A N S E A

Barahona

Cap Haitien

GONAVE I.

TORTUE I.

Horizontal Ground Acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in any 50-year period. Contour interval is 25 gals

Haiti and Dominican republic

IBC2000 uses hazard maps in which the Maximum Credible Earthquakes Spectral Accelerations at

0.2s and 1.0s are determined

Jamaica Spectral Hazard Maps

1. EUCENTRE/INGV/CCEO/UWI Evaluation and Mitigation of Seismic

Risk in the Eastern Caribbean Funded by the municipality of Milan, this project aims to implement a multidisciplinary methodology for integrating the aspects of seismic monitoring, seismic hazard, vulnerability and exposure of the building stock of Eastern Caribbean Countries, culminating in the prediction of seismic risk/damage scenarios at an urban scale using a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) platform:

Only a half of the proposed scope of work has been funded so far for one year starting Mar. 2008. Three tasks will be undertaken and work will be restricted to Trinidad and Tobago in the first phase :

Revision of Seismic Hazard Maps using methodology akin to that used for IBC compliant maps

Feasibility study for establishing a cost effective St M ti N t k ( l t )

1. EUCENTRE/INGV/CCEO/UWI Evaluation and Mitigation of Seismic

Risk in the Eastern Caribbean

Collaborating institutions are the EUCENTRE, UWI - Department of Civil Engineering (DCE) and the Seismic Research Centre (SRC), Caribbean Council of Engineering Organizations (CCEO)The project also caters for 1 fellowship to the EUCENTRE and a scolarship for 1 Caribbean national to pursue Graduate Studies at the ROSE School

2. CDB/CROSQ/UWI Region Building Standard

Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) has provided a Grant to the Caribbean Regional Organization for Standards and Quality to develop a Regional Building Standard for CDB borrowing member States:

Caribbean engineering professionals have adopted the US-based International Code Council (ICC) standards and earthquake hazard maps and attendant application documents are required for the seismic provision of the International Building Code which is affiliated with the ICC. The Seismic Research Centre (SRC) will provide the technical inputExternal technical assistance is required to incorporate new and most appropriate developments in the hazard evaluation.An important goal of the project is to create a framework and mechanisms to foster closer collaboration between the engineering and

i l i l iti i th i

3. GFDRR/CCRIF/UWI Caribbean Risk Atlas

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) approached the World Bank to support the enhancement of capacity within the Caribbean to assess risk posed by natural phenomena:

The World Bank has assisted the CARICOM Secretariat to obtain funding from the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction to build capacity in natural hazard risk assessment. Initial goal is to develop risk modes for flooding, windstorms and earthquakes in 4 pilot statesThe project will run for 24 months with a total budget of about US$450KThe Disaster Risk Reduction Center (DRRC) of UWI will be executing agency for the project. The end products will for the basis of the

4. Seismic Risk Assessment for Loss Reduction in South America

Trinidad and Tobago, host nation for the Seismic Research Centre of the University of the West Indies is a member of the Intergovernmental organization CERESIS. In fact the national representative has always been elected from the staff of the SRC:

SRC has played leading role in previous CERISIS Hazard assessment initiatives including SISRA (in the ‘80s) and the IDRC/PAIGH (1989-1994) project. SRC brings Institutional strengthening to the group and its (SRC) staff brings rich memory from previous projects that will prove valuable in the current initiative.

Other Initiatives

Enhancement of earthquake Readiness Capacity (CDERA/Gov. of Austria 2007-9)Benchmarking the earthquake preparedness capacity of CDERA participating statesEnhancing earthquake contingency planning including Search and RescuePromoting earthquake Awareness

Earthquake Risk Reduction Initiatives

Those affiliated with the establishment of TWSModernization and Extension of Regional

Seismic Networks

Over 20 Broadband and accelerometers added since 2000

Over 15 cGPS stations*

Several Accelerographs*

VSAT data communication

Development of communication Protocols for Tsunami warning and response

Enhanced Outreach and Awareness programs

Tsunami hazard and vulnerability assessments

* Exceptions - Joint Collaborations with other researchers d f i l

Urgent Needs

• To Harmonise projects• Mobilize other regional researchers/stakeholders

• Establish Scheduling with GEM