Earthquake Early WarningWhere we are and where we are going

Doug GivenUSGS Earthquake EarlyWarning Coordinator

CISN Steering CommitteeMarch 25, 2013

Principal Collaborators• Caltech Hauksson, E., Böse, M., Heaton, T.• UC Berkeley Allen, R., Hellweg, P.• Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Clinton, J., Cua, G.• U. of Washington Vidale, J., Bodin, P.• SCEC

Jordan, T., Maechling, P.• Moore Foundation

Atherton, C. • USGS

Given, D., Cochran, E., Oppenheimer, D.

• ShakeMap• CISN Display• ShakeCast• Pager• ENS• And more…

CISN Post-seismic Earthquake Products

Anza M4.7 .avi

Status today:Status today: Demonstration system

Next three years:Next three years:Production Prototype

Thanks to partnerships…

Current CISN EEW Status

Receiving alerts today:Receiving alerts today:• >50 scientists

• CalEMA

• Google.org

• BART

• LA Metro

• Metrolink

• San Francisco DEM

• Amgen

• So Cal Edison

• UC Berkeley OEP

• L.A. City

• L.A. County

• Riverside Co.

• San Bernardino Co.

• more…

Potential Uses of Early Warning?– Human Response

• Drop, cover, and hold on • Evacuate hazardous areas• Brace for shaking

(surgeons, dentists, etc.)

– Automated Response• Slow or stop trains, traffic• Close valves, gates• Stop elevators• Open firehouse doors• Slow or stop machinery• ?

Main Components of EEW System• Dense sensors (seismic & GPS)

• Reliable field telemetry

• Fast processing to determine:

• Location, magnitude

• Fault extent & slip

• Fast mass notification

• End user interaction & education

Sensors Processing UsersField telemetry Notifications

West Coast

Centers

Pacific Northwest

Northern California

Southern California

• EEW is a natural extension of ANSS & CISN core capabilities

• Leverage…

• Technical

• Management

• Community engagement

CISN will be transformed by EEW

• More stations, upgraded stations• More robust telemetry• Tighter integration with (inclusion of) GPS• Need for more rigorous testing and

monitoring for EEW than current products• More staff at Tier 1 centers• More interaction with users• More partnerships• Funding?

CISN Funding (2011)Not including EEW

Total ~$10.4M (USGS $8.9M, CalEMA $1.5M)

Does not include CSMIP

Investments in EEW

External grants R & D for EEW Phase I & II (2006-2012) $2,093,851 Phase III (2012-2015) 1st yr $ 450,000

ARRA California (2009-2011) $4,426,110 Network equipment upgrades

MultiHazards Project (2008-2012)$1,618,150

San Andreas sensors, digital upgrades,production computers, personnel

Caltech $1,996,888

UC Berkeley $2,040,889

Univ. of Washington $1,848,351

USGS $ 594,406

TOTAL $8,588,111 TOTAL $6,480,534

USGS Moore Foundation(2012-2015)

““The USGS has directly funded research and development The USGS has directly funded research and development toward earthquake ‘early warning’ since 2006 with toward earthquake ‘early warning’ since 2006 with the goal the goal of creating an operational warning capability in the highest-of creating an operational warning capability in the highest-risk regions of the United States.risk regions of the United States.” – Director, USGS” – Director, USGS

Technical Progress on EEW

• Installing/upgrading sensors

• Redesigning telemetry

• R & D continues

• Improving algorithms

• Fin-Der, GPS techniques

• IPAWS-WEA, phone app

• Beta user outreach, UD v2.4, social science, web sites

Sensors Processing UsersField telemetry Notifications

• Dense sensors

• Reliable telemetry

• Fast processing for:

• Location, magnitude

• Fault extent & slip

• Fast mass notification

• End user education

ShakeOut finite fault - .avi

Implementation Summary(with current modest funding levels)

• Upgrade network infrastructure as opportunities arise

• Continue algorithm development and implementation – Gordon & Betty Moore funding R&D– USGS EEW funding (Phase III) implementation

• Create production thread - “operationalize” current demonstration thread– Develop West Coast architecture for redundant, fail-safe

operation– Develop operational performance metrics and monitoring

• Continue user interaction, create new partnerships

• Complete implementation plan, cost benefit analysis, telemetry plan, etc.

ShakeShakeAlertAlert

Full West Coast Implementation

(estimate)California

Pacific Northwest

West Coast (CA+PNW)

One-Time Construction costs

$23,165,072 $15,146,920 $38,311,992

Annual Operation and Maintenance

$11,888,128 $4,607,909 $16,496,037

• Personnel to bring ANSS (CISN) network staffing up to robust levels

• Personnel at each center for EEW operation and user outreach• Personnel for EEW central implementation and testing• Support for continued algorithm & software development• 700 new or upgrades seismic stations & 300 GPS stations• Significant field telemetry upgrades

CaliforniaPacific

NorthwestWest Coast (CA+PNW)

One-Time Construction costs

$23M $15M $38M

Annual Operation and Maintenance

$12M $5M $17M

California SB 135 on EEW

Other Recent EEW Developments

• BART “live” since Aug. 2012

• Production system is being built

• UD v2.4 released, alpha phone app

• ShakeAlert being installed at UW

• Web sites created: shakealert.org & at partner sites

•1st draft of implementation plan with budget completed

• Los Angeles area UASI funding for new & upgraded station

• Partners developing strategy for congressional support

Summary

• USGS & CISN partners are committed to building and operating EEW for highest risk areas of CA

• ShakeAlert has been sending test EEW notifications since January 2012

• Work has begun on the “production” system• Significant progress is being made in all parts of

the system despite limited resources• Partners are coordinating to build support at

federal and state levelsShakeShakeAlertAlert

Thank You