EARTH SCIENCE INITIATIVE EARTH SCIENCE INITIATIVE to respond to the NRC Decadal Survey,to respond to the NRC Decadal Survey,

Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and BeyondImperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond

Daniel J. JacobDaniel J. JacobChair, NASA Earth Science SubcommitteeChair, NASA Earth Science Subcommittee

Decadal Survey Purpose & OSTP* Recommended Decadal Survey Purpose & OSTP* Recommended ApproachApproach

“Decadal Survey benefits:• Community-based documents offering consensus of science

opportunities to retain US scientific leadership• Provides well-respected source for priorities & scientific motivations to

agencies, OMB, OSTP, & Congress”

“Most useful approach:• Frame discussion identifying key science questions

– Focus on what to do, not what to build– Discuss science breadth & depth (e.g., impact on understanding

fundamentals, related fields & interdisciplinary research)• Explain measurements & capabilities to answer questions• Discuss complementarity of initiatives, relative phasing, domestic &

international context”

*From “The Role of NRC Decadal Surveys in Prioritizing Federal Funding for Science & Technology,” Jon Morse, Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP), NRC Workshop on Decadal Surveys, November 14-16, 2006

Vision for First ESAS Decadal SurveyVision for First ESAS Decadal Survey

A healthy, secure, prosperous& sustainable society forall people on Earth

“Understanding the complex,changing planet on which we live, how it supports life, & how human activities affect its ability to do so in the future is one of the greatest intellectual challenges facing humanity. It is also one of the most important for society as it seeks to achieve prosperity & sustainability.”NRC (April 2005)

Number USA Missions Number USA Instruments

Interim Report Set Stage (& Tone) for SurveyInterim Report Set Stage (& Tone) for Survey“Today, this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse.” NRC ESAS Interim Report, April 2005

Since: More delays, descoping & cancellations…

"In the short period since the Interim Report [Spring 2005], budgetary constraints & programmatic difficulties at NASA have greatly exacerbated this concern.  At a time of unprecedented need, the nation’s Earth observation satellite programs, once the

envy of the world, are in disarray." 15 January 2007 Final Report

The Decadal Survey recommends 15 NASA missions for 2010-The Decadal Survey recommends 15 NASA missions for 2010-2020 as "minimal, yet robust, observational component of an 2020 as "minimal, yet robust, observational component of an Earth information system that is capable of addressing a Earth information system that is capable of addressing a broad range of societal needs." broad range of societal needs."

• The recommended missions target the most pressing questions for understanding our home planet and its ongoing rapid change

• DS also recommends a new class of NASA “Venture” missions in the $100-200M range to enable infusion of new technology and ideas

• The full program is estimated to be fully doable by a return of ESD to its 2000 real-dollar budget – reversing the 33% cut

• Preliminary budget analyses by ESD suggests that the DS mission costing is close to the mark

• DS warns against cherry-picking missions – would disrupt carefully crafted synergy and balance across fields

ESS endorses the Decadal Survey recommendations and urges that the full program of 15 missions be executed on a timely basis

Implementing the Decadal Survey recommendations Implementing the Decadal Survey recommendations requires an Earth Science Initiativerequires an Earth Science Initiative

• Current ESD budget outlook totally defaults on the Decadal Survey– Budget cuts and launch delays have stretched the current mission

pipeline to 2014 before DS program can be phased in– Next AO planned is in FY08 for an ESSP-sized mission; no

subsequent AO until FY13– No budget line for Venture-class missions

• An Earth Science Initiative is needed to address this problem– Restore ESD funding to 2000 real-dollar levels– Aggressively seek collaborations with international space partners

through the Committee on Earth Science Observations (CEOS) program

NASA Earth Science Budget NASA Earth Science Budget for Recommended Missions for Recommended Missions

•Increase studies & cross-cutting technology to:–Decrease risk–Reduce costs

•Restore frequent launches & demo high-risk technology:

–Replace Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) with Venture low-cost research missions ($100M - $200M)

–Focus on innovation–Train future leaders

•Support suborbital platforms: –Airborne programs suffered substantial

diminution & should be restored–Add Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to

strategic plan•Increase Research & Applications (R&A)

–Space missions should have adequate R&A as well as operations & data analysis funding

–R&A to be protected: Not reserve for hardware cost growth

Earth ScienceInitiative

Some respectful responses to Mr. Griffin’s criticisms of the Some respectful responses to Mr. Griffin’s criticisms of the Decadal Survey at the Goddard Space Symposium (3/20/07)Decadal Survey at the Goddard Space Symposium (3/20/07)

• “rough cost estimates for several missions … are obviously off the mark by a factor of two or more”

– the overall package of 15 missions has only a ~25% costing error according to preliminary ESD estimates

• “a rather brazen recommendation that more money be allocated to Earth science”

– DS only requests reversal of 30% cut to Earth Science since 2000– The Earth Science Initiative doesn’t have to require re-allocation within

NASA, it can support NASA request for a budget increase to support the Initiative

• “it might be more useful to look at the number of Earth science missions and instruments over longer time scales, like the number of instruments since 1990”

– but the point is that the system of U.S. environmental satellites is collapsing now – at a time of unprecedented concern over global change

• “GLORY, LDCM, and GPM are either started or solidly in the budget. Three new missions … is a pretty good start on the goals of the DS”

– but these are not DS missions, they have been repeatedly delayed, and GPM is not scheduled for launch until 2014. The DS assumes timely launch of these missions before the program of 15 missions is implemented