Early Warning Systems Used in Micronesia

Chip GuardWeather Forecast Office Guam

International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster ReductionDisaster ReductionGuangzhou, ChinaGuangzhou, China26-31 March 200726-31 March 2007

Early Warning Systems

• Four components of an Early Warning System

– Warning Products

– Criteria to trigger actions

– Communications Systems

– Alert Systems

Warning Products

• Requirements

– Timely

– Accurate

– Comprehendible

Warning Products in Micronesia

• Types– Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings– Flood/Flash Flood Watches and Warnings – Coastal Flood Warnings– High Surf Advisories and Warnings– High Wind Warnings– Tornado Watches and Warnings– Red Flag Watches and Warnings for Wild Fires– Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings– Special Marine Warnings

Tropical CycloneWarning Products in

Micronesia

• Types

– Tropical Storm and Typhoon Advisories

– Typhoon Local Statements

– Position Estimates

JTWC Warning

PUBLIC ADVISORY

Tropical CycloneWarning Products in

Micronesia

• Types

– Tropical Storm and Typhoon Advisories

– Typhoon Local Statements

– Position Estimates

LOCAL STATEMENTS

LOCAL STATEMENTS

LOCAL STATEMENTS

Tropical CycloneWarning Products in

Micronesia

• Types

– Tropical Storm and Typhoon Advisories

– Typhoon Local Statements

– Position Estimates

Position Estimates

• Based on Doppler radar information – Allows quick

updates– Supersedes

satellite data and JTWC fixes

Position Estimates

Criteria to Trigger Actions

• We use tropical storm and typhoon watches and warnings

– These key the Emergency Managers to take action– These alert the public to listen for instructions

• The Governments generally set Tropical Storm and Typhoon Conditions of Readiness

– These trigger specific actions within the government including instructions for the public

Issuing Watches and Warnings

• Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours.

• A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings

• Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours.

• A Typhoon Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings

• Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24 hours.

• A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at tropical storm intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph to 73 mph) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a tropical storm or a tropical depression that is forecast to intensify.

Issuing Watches and Warnings

• Criteria for issuing a Warning: When damaging winds are expected within 24 hours.

• A Typhoon Warning is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are expected within 24 hours. The tropical cyclone may currently be a typhoon or a tropical storm that is forecast to intensify into a typhoon.

Conditions vs. Watch/Warnings

Based on onset of damaging/tropical storm force winds…

• Condition 4: within 72 hours• Condition 3: within 48 hours• Condition 2: within 24 hours• Condition 1: within 12 hours

• Watch: within 48 hours• Warning: within 24 hours

Communications

• Requirements

– Reliable• Must be maintained• Must be tested

– Wide coverage• Goal is to get to the last kilometer—all the people

– Easily received• On a radio or television or by word of mouth

Communications

• Types

– Internet—http://www.weather.gov/guam– NOAA All-Hazard Weather Radio– Facsimile—a good substitute if Internet not available– Radios

• CB and HAM• HF—Good for remote areas• AM/FM—Primary method in Micronesia

– Media• Radio—We have primarily a radio audience; easy to update• Television—Usually recorded for later airing; can be outdated• Print—Beware! This information is usually 12 hours old or more

Alert Systems

• Requirements

– Reliable• Well maintained

• Periodically tested

– Wide coverage—Goal is to get to the last kilometer—all people

– Effective• For sirens: People must know what the tones mean

• Fewer tones will be more effective than many

• Periodically tested

Alert Systems

• Types

– NOAA All-Hazard Alert Weather Radio• Activates alert radios via a 1050 Hz tone• Activates Emergency Alert System

– Sirens• Automatically activated• Manually activated

– First Responders (police, fire, mayors)• Police bull horns• Knocks on doors

Questions?