Early risk detection at BfR Challenges E SMENT · Unit Crisis Prevention and Coordination...

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Torsten Herold

Unit Crisis Prevention and Coordination

Department Risk Communication

Early risk detection at BfR –

Challenges and Opportunity’s

Dr. Torsten Herold / 3rd Croatian Food Safety Risk Assessment Conference / 17.10.2019

Why early risk detection?

Avoid crises before they occur

Be prepared when crises occur

Reduction of reaction times


Trigger for possible (food) crisis or incidents

e.g.

Results of public surveillance

identification of contamination

Fipronil, dioxin, NDL-PCB in eggs

New scientific (research) results –

improvement of analytics

Acrylamide

PCB, dioxin

Food fraud Use of rotten meat or horse meat

New technologies Genetic engineering or

nanotechnology

New trends Black smoothies (with active coal)

New products E-cigarettes

Public perception – scandalisation Pesticides

Disasters (e.g.) earthquake and flood in Fukushima Radioactive contaminated fish


Usually used information for early risks/crisis detection

Potential information sources Reaction time

(Scientific) literature Mid/long term

Results from research projects Long term

RASFF, RAPEX, INFOSAN, etc. Short term

Results of public monitoring or

surveillance

Short term

Cases of illness or intoxication

related to food

Short term


How early risk / crisis detection –

the easy way

Observe the Rapid Alert System For Food And Feed RASFF

for country specific information

not really an

early detection


Process to Identify Emerging Risks at BfR – the extensive way

EFSA Panels

Screening of selected data/information

Decision by experts• no relevance • monitoring• further data collection• risk assessment• research• exchange with experts

BfR-Committees

EFSA Advisory Forum

EFSA Emerging Risk Exchange Network

BVL

1. Screening 2. Filter and assess 3. Share, discuss, decide

manual or automatic

Systematic searching, gathering and analysing of information and data with

regard to the identification of emerging risks within the task of the BfR

filter stageBfR-Experts

News Radar (Report)


Create and combine Keywords (only examples):

• microbial toxins

• food hygiene

• food ingredients

• food packaging

• nutritional risks, allergies and novel foods

• genetically modified food

• contamination of foodstuffs by environmental toxins

• safety of animal feed

• pesticides and biocides

• poisoning

• transport of toxic substances

• new technologies

• consumer related products (e.g. cosmetics, textiles, toys, water pipes,

e-cigarettes)

First step screening:

Identify topics for the identification of emerging risks


First Step

Automatic Screening: KNIME News Radar

sources

result – every day 20-30 links

processing in an

open source

database


Second Step

Assess information

• discuss results with experts

• activate research projects

when it makes sense

• start a risk assessment

• involve affected stakeholders

(public, politics, press, scientific

community, industry

external


Third Step

Share information

Share/Publication

Press releases

Opinions

FAQ

Research results

Open discourse (conferences,

expert discussions etc.)

Discuss the results with

other experts

e.g.

Emerging Risks Exchange

Network

Discussion Group on

Emerging Risks at EFSA


Exemplary results from the daily work at BfR

Early risk/crisis detection in practice


Examples: New technologies

Use of bacteriophages in the food chain

Potential risk or new opportunities

for food hygiene?

Public conference to

discuss risks and

opportunities


Examples: New preparation methods and eating habits

BfR recommends avoiding

“beer cans chicken”

Recommendation


Examples: New eating habits – Bubble tea

FAQ

Press release

Opinion


Examples: New products and new trends

E-cigarettes and liquid ingredients

press release

published results of an

BfR research project

opinion on

BfR website


use of data from results

social media identify unknown outbreaks or trends

(current research project in Switzerland)

industry check anonymized self-control data for

anomalies (current activity in Germany –

joint project with industrial association)

national poisoning

register

identify unknown outbreaks

main focus intoxication-product safety

(current activity in Germany)

statistical modelling,

machine-learning

algorithms

data about harvest, trading etc.

identify and avoid food fraud

(research project in Bavaria)

New ways to get information to

identify potential risks/crisis


Challenges for early risk detection

new drivers for potential risks/crisis

Drivers Impact

Climatic change Change of pests – followed by change of biocides and

pesticides in production and treatment (new residues)

New technologies Nanotechnology; genetic engineering/CRISPR,

UV-treatment; new packaging materials

new products with new characteristics

Problems through recycling

processes

Mineral oil in packaging materials, PFOS, PFOA

residues from biogas plants an agricultural farms

new contaminants

Change in consumer behavior Increasing consumption of convenience food (fresh

bagged salad)

new pathways mof conatmination

New food trends „Super Food“, new preparation of food

new ingredients with unknown effects

Increase of food fraud Mislabeling bio and regional products,

contaminated herbs (olive leafs in oregano)

possible unsafe products


https://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/emerging-risks

Sources for summarised information


https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/sp.efsa.2019.EN-1704

annual report

Sources for summarized information


https://www.adura.blv.admin.ch/en/FoodSafety/Factsheet/Index

Sources for summarised information

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Thank you for your attention

Torsten Herold

German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment

Max-Dohrn-Str. 8-10 10589 Berlin, GERMANY

Phone +49 30 - 184 12 - 0

[email protected] www.bfr.bund.de/en


Food crisis or incidents in Germany

YearCases of

illness

Cases of

death

Risk for the

consumers

BSE 2000 ? ? +

Antibiotica Residues in Prawn 2001 - - +/-

Rotten Meat 2006 - - -

Dioxin in Eggs and Meat 2011 - - +/-

EHEC O104:H4 (Sprouts) 2011 3,842 53 +

Norovirus

(Strawberry)2012 etwa. 11,000 ? +

Aflatoxine in feed maize from

serbia (detection in Milk)2013 ? - -

Horsemeat in „Beeflassangne etc 2013 - - -

Fipronil in Eggs 2017 - - +/-

ndl-PCB in Eggs 2018 - - -

Only examples, not complete


Real “Crisis“ in Germany

YearCases of

illness

Cases of

death

Risk for the

consumers

BSE 2000 ? ? +

EHEC O104:H4 (Sprouts) 2011 3,842 53 +

Norovirus

(Strawberry)2012

etwa.

11,000? +

Only examples, not complete

Early risk detection at BfR Challenges E SMENT · Unit Crisis Prevention and Coordination...

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