Early messages from the evidence base research Brendan Nevin NLA 19 February 2010 NLA.
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Transcript of Early messages from the evidence base research Brendan Nevin NLA 19 February 2010 NLA.
Early messages from the evidence base research
Brendan NevinNLA
19 February 2010
NLA
CONTEXT
Reduction in starts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West
Ave
rage
star
ts Q
4 20
08-Q
3 20
09 a
s pe
rcen
tage
of a
vera
ge s
tart
s Q
1-Q
4 20
07
Sales turnover
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sale
s as
% o
f p
riva
te s
ect
or
sto
ck
Nu
mb
er
of
sale
s
Sales during year Sales as % of private dwellings
HOUSING DEMAND
Household growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber
East Midlands West Midlands
East London South East South West
Cum
ulati
ve p
erce
ntag
e gr
owth
in h
ouse
hold
s si
nce
2006
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Population ageing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Perc
enta
ge o
f po
pula
tion
Under 15 15-64 65-74 75+
Local migration patterns
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ave
rage
ann
ual
mig
rati
on fl
ow 2
001-2
008
(inw
ard
and
outw
ard
com
bine
d) p
er 1
000
popu
lati
on
Internal International
Spatial pattern of growth
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Perc
enta
ge g
row
th in
num
ber o
f ho
useh
olds
1981-2006 2006-2031
Spatial pattern of growth
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Popu
lati
on c
hang
e co
mpo
nent
as
% o
f 20
06 p
opul
ation
Natural change Internal migration International migration
Spatial pattern of ageing
HOUSING SUPPLY
Tenure
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
% o
f all
dwel
lings
Owner Occupied Rented privately Social rented
% of dwellings in Council Tax Band A by region, 2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
North East North West Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f d
we
llin
gs i
n C
ou
nci
l Ta
x B
and
A, 2
00
7
Source: ONS Neighbourhood Statistics, Dwelling Stock by Council Tax Band, 2007
Non-decency rate by tenure, YH
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
owner occupied private rented local authority RSL Total
% o
f non
-dec
ent
stoc
k by
ten
ure
Source: English House Condition Survey, 2006
MARKET OUTCOMES
Indexed real prices, GDP and average GDP per household
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Ind
ex
(19
69
=1
00
)
Real house price (Yorkshire and the Humber average) Real GDP per capita Real GDP per household
Sources: HM Land Registry, ONS, CLG
Average dwelling price mid 2009
Source: HM Land Registry, CLG.
Modelled average household income by MSOA, YH 2007-08
Source: ONS Modelled income estimates at http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/
Vacancy rates by LSOA 2007/2008
Source: ONS, neighbourhood statistics at http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/. Note: some data is missing. Map shows vacancy rate in 2008, except where data is missing. In these areas, 2007 data has been substituted where available.
Vacancy rates by tenure
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
North East North West Yorkshire & the Humber
East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West
Perc
enta
ge o
f dw
ellin
gs v
acan
t
Social rented Private sector Overall
Source: CLG Regional estimates from HSSA returns 2008
Vacancy rates by local authority, 2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Vac
ancy
rat
e (%
)
Rented from LA Rented from HA Private sector
Source: CLG Regional estimates from HSSA returns 2008
Affordability
KEY ISSUES ARISING
Key Issues Arising
• Tenure change and the growth of private renting;
• Re-thinking affordability;• The implications of ageing population;• Links between housing and employment– Worklessness– Demographic and housing growth
Key Issues Arising
• Stock condition and choice;• Facilitating supply; and• Managing the existing stock
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