E: mike [email protected] Focus Minerals Ltd...
Transcript of E: mike [email protected] Focus Minerals Ltd...
Page 1 of 15
Focus Minerals Ltd
Gold
: P
rodu
ce
r
Share Price $241m $0.070
Valuation - (pre bid) $386m $0.11
Valuation - (pro forma) $536m $0.12
Issued Capital -current 3,440.5m
Issued Capital -pro-forma (est) 4,518.5m
Market Cap-current $240.8m
Market Cap -pro-forma (est) $316.3m
Cash and Bullion- est $37.5m
Debt (est) $0.0m
EV - pre bid $203.3m
EV - pro-forma $278.8m
EV/Resource Oz - pre bid $90/oz
EV/Resource Oz - pro forma $62/oz
EV/Reserve Oz - pre bid $813/oz
EV/Reserve Oz - pro forma $372/oz
FY10a FY11e FY12e
Prod (koz Au) 63 73 227
Cash Costs (A$/oz) 801 941 870
Op Cash Flw 28 35 126
NPAT 10.9 20.4 72.0
CF/Share (cps) 0.8 1.3 2.1
EPS (cps) 0.4 0.6 1.6
P/E 18.4 12.7 4.4
Resources (Moz Au) - pre bid 2.25
Resources (Moz Au) - pro forma 4.50
Reserves (Moz Au)- pre bid 0.25
Reserves (Moz Au)- pro forma 0.75
Author:
Mike Millikan
Resources Analyst
Ph: +61 8 9268 2805
FML.asx
Buy
6 Jul 2011
Brief Business Description:
WA gold developer/producer
Campbell Baird (CEO)
Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion
CRE Acquisition could increase production to
230Kozpa in CY12. Reserves and resources
doubled.
Chairman & MD
Don Taig (Chairman)
Hartleys has completed a capital raising in the past
12 months for Focus Minerals Limited (“Focus”), for
w hich it has earned fees. Hartleys is acting as
Corporate Adviser to Focus in its friendly off-market
takeover of Crescent Gold Limited for w hich it w ill
earn fees. See back page for full disclosure.
Company Address
Level 30, 44 St Georges Terrace
Perth WA 6000
FOCUS MINERALS LTD
Friendly Bid for Crescent adds Production Ounces Hartleys is a transaction adviser to FML in respect of this bid
Focus Minerals Limited (“Focus”, “FML”, “Company”) has made an off-
market takeover for Crescent Gold Limited (“Crescent”, “CRE”). The bid is
friendly and Crescent’s board is unanimously recommending the offer and
have provided acceptances for all their shares. The consideration being
offered to Crescent Shareholders is one FML share for every 1.18 CRE
shares held. Focus has also entered into a pre-bid acceptance agreement
with Crescent’s major shareholder, Deutsche Bank Group (“Deutsche”),
which owns 29.23% of Crescent. The pre-bid agreement is in respect of
19.9% of shares in Crescent. In the absence of a superior offer, Deutsche
intends to accept the bid for the remaining 9.33%. Focus currently has a
diluted 18.5% relevant interest in Crescent following conversion of a
convertible note to CRE shares by note holders.
Combined production of 230Kozpa targeted for CY2012 The transaction enables Focus to grow production, double resources and
diversify operations. Targeted production from Crescent’s Laverton
operation is expected to add ~100kozpa for combined production of
~230koz in CY2012.
Adverse weather conditions impacted the Laverton operations during the
Dec CY’10 and March CY’11 quarters, causing a loss of haulage days and a
decrease to ore processed. Reduced production and revenue resulted in
tight working capital which hampered CRE’s development progress at
Laverton. We see the strong balance sheet of Focus, along with FML’s
management/operational expertise as important factors for the turnaround of
the Laverton operation. Operational efficiencies provide an opportunity to
reduce costs and improve cash flows, but the biggest improvements can
come through improved ore scheduling (increase mined ore grades and
improve processed tonnes). Focus is targeting cash costs below $900/oz,
which we believe is attainable.
Resources double to 4.5Moz, Reserves now 746Koz
The combined entity will have gold resources of 4.5Moz. Crescent’s current
resource is 2.25Moz at a grade of 2.1g/t Au, with the vast majority of the
resources contained within shallow-oxide open pits. Focus’ current resource
is also 2.25Moz but at a slightly higher grade of 2.6g/t Au, due to some
higher grade underground resources. Combined reserves through the
merger would be ~746koz at grade of ~2.1g/t Au. Focus’ post merger
EV/Resource metric is calculated to be $62/oz, a considerable discount to
its producer peer’s of $115/oz, which provides a revaluation opportunity.
A pipeline of exploration opportunities The combined group has a strong portfolio of expanding mine operations
and a pipeline of exploration opportunities. Post-merger integration will
provide the financial capability and in-house experience to unlock CRE’s
exploration value across the Laverton district; a well endowed goldfield that
has produced over 25Moz of gold from deposits less than 200m deep. Our
preliminary valuation of Crescent sees value in the transaction and we
continue to recommend Focus Minerals Limited as a Buy. The offer opened
on 30th June 2011 and closes on 1
st August 2011, unless extended.
Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000
Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Jul-11Mar-11Nov-10Jul-10
Volume - RHS
FML Shareprice - LHS
Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS
A$ M
Focus Minerals Ltd
Source: IRESS
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
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SUMMARY MODEL- FML CURRENT
Focus Minerals Ltd Share Price
FML $0.070 Buy
Key Market Information Directors Company Information
Share Price $0.070 Don Taig (Chairman) Level 30, 44 St Georges Terrace
Market Capitalisation $241m Campbell Baird (CEO) Perth WA 6000
52 Week High-Low $0.07-$0.04 Phil Lockyer (Non-Exec Director) Tel: +61 8 9215 7888
Issued Capital 3440.5m Bruce McComish (Non-Exec Director) Fax: +61 8 9215 7889
Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. ITM options) 3440.5m Gerry Fahey (Non-Exec Director) Web: w w w .focusminerals.com.au
Options 77.9m@$A0.10
Hedging None Top Shareholders -December 2010 m shares %
Yearly Turnover/Volume $495.7m/7,392.6m shares
Liquidity Measure (Yearly Turnover/Issued Capital) 215% 1 Sector Investment Managers Ltd 100.00 2.91%
Valuation $0.11 2 Old Mutual (Institutional Group) 65.20 1.90%
Price Target $0.11 3 DWP Bank 61.00 1.77%
4 New City Investment Managers Ltd 60.00 1.74%
5 Focus Minerals Management 70.50 2.05%
Financial Performance Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F 6
7
Net Revenue A$m 77.4 108.6 193.7 197.3 8
Total Costs A$m (53.4) (74.8) (110.2) (111.1) 9 Reserves & Resources Gold Mt g/t Au Koz Attrib.
EBITDA A$m 24.0 33.8 83.5 86.1 #
Depreciation/Amort A$m (12.2) (19.3) (22.7) (25.2) Gold
EBIT A$m 11.8 14.5 60.8 60.9 Reserves - Total 2.687 2.6 223 223
Net Interest A$m (0.9) 0.1 2.2 2.9 Surface Stocks - Total 0.84 0.9 25 25
Pre-Tax Profit A$m 10.9 14.6 63.0 63.7 Reserves-Total M ar-11 3.53 2.2 247 247
Tax Expense A$m - - (18.9) (19.1)
NPAT A$m 10.9 14.6 44.1 44.6 Tindals Project - Total 13.11 2.8 1,186 1,186
Abnormal Items A$m - - - - Mount Project - Total 2.09 5.5 370 370
Reported Profit A$m 10.9 14.6 44.1 44.6 Lindsays Project - Total 7.91 1.8 470 470
Three Mile Hill Project - Total 1.52 2.0 100 100
Financial Position Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Norris Project - Total 1.87 2.1 124 124
Resources-Total M ar-11 26.51 2.6 2,250 2,250
Cash A$m 7.2 35.3 92.3 147.9
Other Current Assets A$m 10.1 13.8 16.1 16.1 Reserves & Resources Nickel Mt Ni% Kt Attrib.
Total Current Assets A$m 17.3 49.1 108.4 164.0
Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 39.8 31.0 40.3 47.2 Nickel
Exploration A$m 58.2 80.3 76.3 72.2 Inferred Resource- Total 0.59 2.2 13 13
Investments/other A$m - - - -
Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m 98.0 111.3 116.7 119.4
Total Assets A$m 115.3 160.4 225.0 283.4 Production Summary Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
*Attributable
Short Term Borrow ings A$m (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Payable Gold Metal 000oz 63 73 132 134
Other A$m (13.7) (9.7) (11.4) (11.4) Cash Costs (incl. royalty) $A/oz 801 941 783 778
Total Curr. Liabilities A$m (13.8) (9.8) (11.4) (11.5)
Long Term Borrow ings A$m (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) Price Assumptions Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
Other A$m (1.7) (1.7) (20.6) (30.9)
Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m (1.8) (2.1) (21.0) (31.3) Gold US$/oz - 1383 1459 1394
Total Liabilities A$m (15.6) (11.9) (32.4) (42.8) Exchange Rate A$/US$ - 0.99 1.03 0.98
$A Gold A$/oz 1155 1402 1423 1429
Net Assets A$m 99.7 148.5 192.6 240.6
Hedging Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
Cashflow Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
Total Forw ard Sales - Gold 000oz 9.4 - - -
Operating Cashflow A$m 27.9 26.9 82.8 86.2 Forw ard Gold Price $A/oz 994 - - -
Income Tax Paid A$m - - - (8.8)
Interest & Other A$m (0.0) 0.1 2.2 2.9 Sensitivity Analysis Valuation ($/s) NPAT EPS (¢) CFPS (¢)
Operating Activities A$m 27.8 27.0 84.9 80.2
Base Case 0.11 14.6 0.5 1.1
PP&E + Development A$m (35.7) (16.0) (16.0) (16.0) Exchange Rate +10% 0.09 9.6 0.3 0.9
Exploration A$m (6.3) (16.3) (12.0) (12.0) Exchange Rate -10% 0.14 20.7 0.7 1.3
Investments A$m 0.2 0.0 - - Gold Price +10% 0.14 20.1 0.6 1.3
Investment Activities A$m (41.7) (32.3) (28.0) (28.0) Gold Price -10% 0.09 9.1 0.3 0.9
Operating Costs +10% 0.10 11.1 0.4 1.0
Repayment of Borrow ings A$m (8.5) - - - Operating Costs -10% 0.13 18.1 0.6 1.2
Equity A$m 8.7 35.1 - 3.4 *N.B. NPAT, EPS, CFPS forecasts are for FY2011
Dividends Paid A$m - - - -
Financing Activities A$m (0.2) 33.4 - 3.4 Share Price Valuation (NAV) Est. $m Est. $/share
Net Cashflow A$m (14.1) 28.1 56.9 55.6 Coolgardie (NPV @ 8%) 302.7 0.088
Nepean Nickel Asset 15.0 0.004
Ratio Analysis Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Exploration 30.0 0.009
Cash 31.1 0.009
Cashflow Per Share A¢ 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.0 Forw ards 0.0 0.000
Cashflow Multiple X 8.7 6.5 3.6 3.5 Corporate Overheads (NPV @ 3%) (6.1) (0.002)
Earnings Per Share A¢ 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.3 Total Debt - -
Price to Earnings Ratio X 18.4 15.2 5.5 5.5 Tax Losses 6.2 0.002
Dividends Per Share A¢ - - - - Options & Other Equity 6.9 0.002
Dividend Yield % - - - - Total 385.7 0.11
Net Debt / Equity % na na na na
Interest Cover X na na - - Spot Valuation
Return on Equity % 11% 10% 23% 19% (AUDUSD: 1.07, Gold: US$1,492/oz) 428.1 0.12
Analyst: Mike MillikanPhone: +61 8 9268 2805
Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research
July 2011
Last Updated: 06/07/2011
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
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PRELIM SUMMARY MODEL- COMBINED ENTITY
Focus Minerals Ltd Share Price
FML $0.070 Buy
Key Market Information Directors Company Information
Share Price $0.070 Don Taig (Chairman) Level 30, 44 St Georges Terrace
Market Capitalisation $316m Campbell Baird (CEO) Perth WA 6000
52 Week High-Low $0.07-$0.04 Phil Lockyer (Non-Exec Director) Tel: +61 8 9215 7888
Issued Capital 4515.8m Bruce McComish (Non-Exec Director) Fax: +61 8 9215 7889
Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. ITM options) 4515.8m Gerry Fahey (Non-Exec Director) Web: w w w .focusminerals.com.au
Hedging None Top Shareholders m shares %
Yearly Turnover/Volume $494.5m/7,376.8m shares
Liquidity Measure (Yearly Turnover/Issued Capital) 163% 1 Sector Investment Managers Ltd 100.00 2.91%
Valuation $0.12 2 Old Mutual (Institutional Group) 65.20 1.90%
Price Target $0.08 3 DWP Bank 61.00 1.77%
4 New City Investment Managers Ltd 60.00 1.74%
5 Focus Minerals Management 70.50 2.05%
Financial Performance Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F 6
7 Reserves & Resources Gold Mt g/t Au Koz Attrib.
Net Revenue A$m 77.4 108.6 328.6 339.5 8
Total Costs A$m (53.4) (74.8) (204.1) (204.7) 9 Gold
EBITDA A$m 24.0 33.8 124.5 134.8 # Reserves - Laverton 6.385 2.3 473 473
Depreciation/Amort A$m (12.2) (19.3) (24.3) (31.6) Reserves - Coolgardie 2.687 2.6 223 223
EBIT A$m 11.8 14.5 100.2 103.2 Surface Stocks - Total 1.72 0.9 51 51
Net Interest A$m (0.9) 0.1 2.6 5.1 Reserves-Total 10.80 2.2 746 746
Pre-Tax Profit A$m 10.9 14.6 102.8 108.3
Tax Expense A$m - - (30.8) (32.5) Laverton Project - Total 31.61 2.2 2,254 2,254
NPAT A$m 10.9 14.6 72.0 75.8 Tindals Project - Total 13.11 2.8 1,186 1,186
Abnormal Items A$m - - - - Mount Project - Total 2.09 5.5 370 370
Reported Profit A$m 10.9 14.6 72.0 75.8 Lindsays Project - Total 7.91 1.8 470 470
Three Mile Hill Project - Total 1.52 2.0 100 100
Financial Position Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Norris Project - Total 1.87 2.1 124 124
Resources-Total 58.12 2.4 4,504 4,504
Cash A$m 7.2 35.3 117.0 199.1
Other Current Assets A$m 10.1 13.8 20.1 20.0 Reserves & Resources Nickel Mt Ni% Kt Attrib.
Total Current Assets A$m 17.3 49.1 137.1 219.2
Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 39.8 31.0 48.9 60.3 Nickel
Exploration A$m 58.2 80.3 79.7 75.6 Inferred Resource- Total 0.59 2.2 13 13
Investments/other A$m - - - -
Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m 98.0 111.3 128.5 135.9 Production Summary Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
Total Assets A$m 115.3 160.4 265.6 355.1 *Attributable
Payable Gold Metal 000oz 63 73 227 234
Short Term Borrow ings A$m (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Cash Costs $A/oz 801 941 870 847
Other A$m (13.7) (9.7) (19.9) (20.0)
Total Curr. Liabilities A$m (13.8) (9.8) (20.0) (20.0) Price Assumptions Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
Long Term Borrow ings A$m (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3)
Other A$m (1.7) (1.7) (18.9) (29.1) Gold US$/oz - 1383 1459 1394
Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m (1.8) (2.1) (19.3) (29.5) Exchange Rate A$/US$ - 0.99 1.03 0.98
Total Liabilities A$m (15.6) (11.9) (39.3) (49.5) $A Gold A$/oz 1155 1402 1423 1429
Net Assets A$m 99.7 148.5 226.3 305.6 Hedging Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F
Cashflow Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Total Forw ard Sales - Gold 000oz 9.4 - - -
Forw ard Gold Price $A/oz 994 - - -
Operating Cashflow A$m 27.9 26.9 126.1 134.9
Income Tax Paid A$m - - (13.7) (22.3) Sensitivity Analysis Valuation ($/s) NPAT EPS (¢) CFPS (¢)
Interest & Other A$m (0.0) 0.1 2.6 5.1
Operating Activities A$m 27.8 27.0 115.1 117.8 Base Case 0.12 72.0 1.6 2.1
Exchange Rate +10% 0.09 51.5 1.1 1.7
PP&E + Development A$m (35.7) (16.0) (24.0) (24.0) Exchange Rate -10% 0.15 97.3 2.2 2.7
Exploration A$m (6.3) (16.3) (16.0) (15.0) Gold Price +10% 0.14 94.7 2.1 2.6
Investments A$m 0.2 0.0 - - Gold Price -10% 0.09 49.4 1.1 1.6
Investment Activities A$m (41.7) (32.3) (40.0) (39.0) Operating Costs +10% 0.10 58.4 1.3 1.8
Operating Costs -10% 0.13 85.7 1.9 2.4
Repayment of Borrow ings A$m (8.5) - - - *N.B. NPAT, EPS, CFPS forecasts are for FY2012
Equity A$m 8.7 35.1 - 3.4
Dividends Paid A$m - - - - Share Price Valuation (NAV) Est. $m Est. $/share
Financing Activities A$m (0.2) 33.4 - 3.4
Coolgardie (NPV @ 8%) 302.7 0.067
Net Cashflow A$m (14.1) 28.1 75.1 82.2 Laverton Gold (NPV @ 10%) 119.1 0.026
Crescent Other Assets 15.0 0.003
Ratio Analysis Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Nepean Nickel Asset 15.0 0.003
Exploration 40.0 0.009
Cashflow Per Share A¢ 0.8 1.1 2.1 2.4 Cash 37.5 0.008
Cashflow Multiple X 8.7 6.1 3.3 3.0 Forw ards 0.0 0.000
Earnings Per Share A¢ 0.4 0.5 1.6 1.7 Corporate Overheads (NPV @ 3%) (6.1) (0.001)
Price to Earnings Ratio X 18.4 14.3 4.4 4.2 Total Debt - -
Dividends Per Share A¢ - - - - Tax Losses 6.0 0.001
Dividend Yield % - - - - Options & Other Equity 6.9 0.002
Net Debt / Equity % na na na na Total 536 0.12
Interest Cover X na na - -
Return on Equity % 11% 10% 32% 25%
Analyst: Mike MillikanPhone: +61 8 9268 2805
Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research
July 2011
Last Updated: 06/07/2011
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 3 of 15
LAVERTON GOLD PROJECT
Overview Crescent Gold Limited’s (“Crecent”, “CRE”) Laverton Gold Project is located 250km
north-north east of Kalgoorlie, in and around the small mining district of Laverton,
Western Australia. Laverton is a prolific gold production region with major gold
mines, such as Barrick Gold’s Granny Smith (>3Moz) and Wallaby (7Moz) and
AngloGold Ashanti’s Sunrise Dam (7Moz). The goldfield has produced over 25Moz
of gold with current production estimated to be over 500kozpa from deposits less
than 200m deep.
Crescent controls over 1400km2 of mining, exploration and prospecting licences
within the Laverton district. The tenement package contains a current resource of
over 2.25Moz from multiple shallow oxide gold deposits and one underground
resource. CRE currently has an Ore Processing Agreement (OPA) with Barrick Gold.
Fig. 1: Laverton Gold Project, WA
Granny Smith mil l 3.8mtpa
OPA with Barr ick
Most ly shallow oxide gold deposits
amenable to open pit mining
Source: Crescent Gold Limited
Company History Crescent listed on ASX in March 2003 following the acquisition of the Laverton gold
assets. The gold project was commissioned in March 2007 as an open pit operation
processing ore through the refurbished Barnicoat mill (1mtpa) for ~90kozpa over an
expected 4 year mine life. In August 2007 the plant was upgraded to 1.5mtpa
through the addition of a second ball mill. The operation was then placed on care
and maintenance in July 2008 due to escalating costs, ore crushing issues and
reliance on its single ore source (Sickle Deposit).
Project located 250km
north east of
Kalgoor l ie
Controls over 1400km 2
of ground with a
2.25Moz resource
Project f irst
commissioned in
March 2007 and then
placed on care and
maintenance in July
2008 due to escalat ing
costs, mil l problems
and underperformance
of ore source
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 4 of 15
After a 12-month review of operations and development of more open pits, CRE
executed an Ore Purchase Agreement (OPA) with Barrick Gold in June 2009.
Financial terms of the agreement are confidential and under the OPA Crescent does
not own the out-turn (gold produced), so CRE cannot state a direct cash cost. Each
milling campaign runs for ~50 days per quarter for targeted production of over
100kozpa. CRE extended the initial 2-year term to a 4-year term in April 2010; the
OPA is currently set to finish in June 2013.
The ore is treated through the 3.8mtpa Granny Smith mill located ~ 20km from the
Laverton Gold Project. The OPA provides mutual benefits for both companies
allowing Barrick to fill idle mill capacity (effectively lowering milling costs) and
providing a low capital/lower processing alternative to CRE.
Crescent’s initial aim was to fill 600kt – 700kt of idle capacity per quarter for ~2.5-
2.8mtpa (utilising ~65-70% of the mill spare capacity). Barrick processing charge is
determined on an open book/transparent basis which includes processing cost +
~10%. During the processing campaigns gold pours are undertaken roughly every
fortnight, with CRE receiving cash payments for ~50% of the value of the gold at the
time the gold doré is shipped. A final reconciliation payment (less costs and margin)
is paid to CRE at the end of each 50 day campaign period.
The CRE Barnicoat mill remains on care and maintenance and is generally
considered to be in good condition, though it requires a new crushing circuit (circa
$10m) and some minor refurbishment (mostly cosmetic), if ever recommissioned.
Fig. 2: Granny Smith Mill (LHS)and Barnicoat Mill (RHS)
Source: Barrick Gold Corporation; Hartleys Research
CRE Quarterly Performance - OPA As mentioned the OPA was executed with Barrick Gold in June 2009 with
processing commenced on the 12th October 2009 for first gold poured 21
st October
2009 (Dec Q CY2009). The first campaign generated equivalent cash costs (C1) of
A$841/oz, which was slightly lower than the long-term equivalent cash cost forecast
of A$850/oz. Our estimates on Fig.4 (RHS) are rough estimates only, calculated
from reported production costs over reported ounces produced (they are indicative
only). The production for the December Q CY2009 resulted in positive cash flows
with ore sourced predominantly from the Sickle and Euro open pits.
Ore Purchase
Agreement (OPA)
executed with Barr ick
Gold in June 2009
Target production ‐
>100koz pa but
ounces are owned by
Barr ick
Each mil l ing campaign
= 50days / qtr
OPA generates
improved cash f lows
for CRE and
maximises the
eff iciency of Barr ick’s
Granny Smith mil l
Successful f irst
campaign achieving
equivalent cash costs
of A$841/oz
CRE does not own the
gold produced, so
they cannot state a
direct cash cost
Barrick’s Granny Smith Mill 3.8mtpa
CRE’s Barnicoat Mill 1.5mtpa
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 5 of 15
Fig. 3: Quarterly Production, Oz Target & Produced, Grade(LHS), Processed Ore (RHS)
Source: Crescent Gold Limited
The processed ore for March Q CY2010 was generally in-line with expectations
(615kt of ore) but netted less ounces due to a change to the mining schedule and
some rain-affected operating days lowering head grade (clearly evident on Fig. 3).
CRE made an operating loss for this quarter. Development activity focussed on the
shortest lead time to mining, including the Craiggiemore, West Laverton, Mary Mac
South and Mary Mac deposits.
Fig. 4: Quarterly Prod- Oz, Rev, Prod Costs, Expl & Dev (LHS), Est Eq Cash Costs (RHS)
Source: Crescent Gold Limited; Hartleys Research Estimates; *Note Eq cash costs indicative only
The June Q CY2010 saw the results of campaign 3 with ore processed within
expectations but again grade was below the forecast 12-month range of 1.6-1.8g/t
Au. It would appear CRE was just cash flow positive for the quarter (reported net
cash inflow of A$0.4m).
CRE was forecasting September Q CY2010 (campaign 4) processing ~640kt at an
improved head grade of 1.6g/t. Processed tonnes exceeded guidance but the
achieved grade was lower than expected (1.4g/t achieved versus 1.6g/t target). It
would appear that the quarter was capital intensive with production costs escalating
to A$47.9m, up from A$29.7m in the previous quarter. CRE reported costs incurred
related predominantly to mining and exploration activities, though reported
exploration and development costs were down for the quarter.
The open pit mining of Admiral Hill pit during the September Q CY2010, contributed
to the higher production costs. The reserve grade for this deposit is 2g/t Au for
50koz, from a resource of 200koz @ 1.2g/t Au, providing an expected good grade
feed for the OPA. However, CRE reported in the preceding quarter that the mining
operations at Admiral Hill were suspended in October 2010 as ore containing high
copper levels were identified earlier than anticipated. The high copper content in the
ore resulted in processing delays at the Granny Smith mill as Barrick Gold has
stringent cyanide guidelines, adhering to the Cyanide Code which does not to allow
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Dec Q CY09 Mar Q CY10 Jun Q CY10 Sep Q CY10 Dec Q CY10 Mar Q CY11
Gra
de
g/t
Au
Au
Oz
CRE Quarterly Production
Oz Target Oz Prod Grade g/t
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Dec Q CY09 Mar Q CY10 Jun Q CY10 Sep Q CY10 Dec Q CY10 Mar Q CY11
Ore
Pro
cess
ed
Thousands
Au
Oz
CRE Quarterly Production
Oz Target Oz Prod Processed Target Processed Ore
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Dec Q CY09 Mar Q CY10 Jun Q CY10 Sep Q CY10 Dec Q CY10 Mar Q CY11
Millions
Au
Oz
CRE Quarterly Production
Oz Prod Revenue Prod Costs Expl & Dev
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Dec Q CY09 Mar Q CY10 Jun Q CY10 Sep Q CY10 Dec Q CY10 Mar Q CY11
Au
Oz
CRE Quarterly Production
Oz Prod Eq Cash cost est (Prod)
Lower head grade in
the March Q CY10
Ore processed with in
expectat ion in the
June Q CY10 but
grade below guidance
High product ion costs
for CRE in Sep Q
CY10
High-copper levels
encountered earl ier
than anticipated at
Admiral Hil l resulted
in processing delays
at the Granny Smith
mil l
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 6 of 15
weak acid dissociable (WAD) cyanide levels from the processing plant to the tailings
dam to exceed guideline levels (>50ppm). Cyanide-soluble copper minerals in gold-
rich ores can cause various processing issues resulting in low gold recoveries and
high cyanide consumption and more importantly, the presence of copper in tailings
tends to stabilise WAD cyanide in a form toxic to wildlife.
For the December Q CY2010 and March Q CY2011, CRE had a drop off in
processed ore (both quarters well below the targeted of ~640kt) at head grades
around 1.2g/t Au which led to a reduction in ounces produced and impacted
revenue. Weather had a severe impact on operations in both quarters, with heavy
rain causing delays to ore haulage to the Granny Smith mill (16 haulage days loss in
the Dec Q CY2010 and 22 haulage days loss in the March Q CY2011).
The rains washed out some haul roads which were then required to be repaired and
also stopped operations completely for a few days. Mining at the high-grade Fish
deposit (3.5g/t Au pit), located ~120km from Laverton was also suspended for haul
road repairs and for the 40-man village to be completed to enable better utilisation of
mining personnel and equipment.
Improved Production Performance Going Forward Clearly adverse weather impacted production in the December and March quarters
and during these periods some of the low grade stockpiles were used to supplement
higher grade ore feed. CRE anticipates a reduction in costs, increase grade profile
and improved ore scheduling in the coming quarters. We can see this achieved
through the following measures now in place:
All haul roads are fully operational and the new mining village at Fish has been
completed.
Ore from Fish should provide good-grade ore feed for the mill and opportunities
exist to mine the Lord Byron deposit, ~8km from Fish which though slightly lower
grade could provide another 30koz to the mining inventory, extending mining in
this area.
CRE in March delivered 225kt of ore to the mill in preparation for campaign 7
scheduled for June Q CY2011.
To further de-risk operations CRE continues to transport ore to the mill with the road
train fleet (Hamptons contract) resumed to full capacity. Having a growing stockpile
of better grade ore at the mill will provide a buffer for any unforeseen climatic events
and potentially enable ore blending of Admiral Hill in the future.
With a multitude of deposits in the development pipeline, Mary Mac and West
Laverton are ready for the commencement of mining later in the year. An ore reserve
for the Apollo deposit was released in early June 2011, with four small pits planned
for development. A shire road will need to be moved prior to commencement, with
approvals well advanced. Apollo is just out of Laverton and contains 54koz (reserve)
at a respectable 2.2g/t Au and is the first of a cluster of deposits to be development
in the area.
Severe rainfal l in the
Dec Q CY10 and Mar
Q CY11 impacted on
operat ions, causing a
combined loss of 38
haulage days and
suspension of mining
and processing
Pipel ine of
development
opportunit ies for
improved grades and
increase ore
schedul ing
Some of the key
deposits include Fish,
Mary Mac, West
Laverton and Apollo
Tight working capi tal
has hampered CRE in
the past
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 7 of 15
Fig. 5: Mary Mac grade control drill ing (LHS); Apollo completed resource drill ing (RHS)
Source: Hartleys Research
Tight working capital has clearly hampered CRE progress following the disappointing
December and March production quarters. We see the strong balance sheet of
Focus (FML) as an important factor for operational turnaround; along with
operational efficiencies providing an opportunity to further increase (improve) cash
flows. Focus also plans to provide funds for regional exploration which provides
upside for resource extensions (growth) and new discoveries.
The appointment of Mark Hine as Chief Operating Officer (a mining engineer
formally with Macmahons) in May 2011 also provides us with confidence that the
Laverton operations can be turned around. His extensive mining experience and
mining services background bodes well for contract negotiations and the
management of costs.
Crescent Reserves and Resources
Fig. 6: Crescent Ore Reserves
Reserve Proven & Probable
Deposit Tonnes (Kt) Grade (g/t) Au Oz
Admiral Hill 780 2.0 50,000
Bells 35 2.9 3,000
Burtville 415 1.4 18,000
Craiggiemore 400 2.0 26,000
Fish 435 3.5 49,000
Grouse 83 2.0 5,000
Lord Byron 640 1.4 30,000
Mary Mac 420 1.8 24,000
Mary Mac South 570 1.4 7,000
Sickle 145 1.5 35,000
West Laverton 825 1.3 35,000
Apollo 770 2.2 54,000
Stockpiles 885 0.9 26,000
Sub‐Total Open Pit Deposits 6410 1.7 354,000
Summit ‐ Underground 860 5.3 145,000
TOTAL 7,270 2.1 499,000
Source: Crescent Gold Limited; all reserves reported 30 June 2010 except Apollo reserve
reported 7 June 2011
The Admiral Hill deposit still remains a priority deposit for CRE, due to the grade and
contained ounces. The zones of increased copper content could potentially be
blended with other ore to decrease copper levels with CRE of the opinion that
copper levels below 30ppm will be able to be processed through the Granny Smith
FML’s strong balance
could be an important
factor for operational
turnaround, provid ing
the much needed
working capita l for on-
going development
and mining
Key deposits include
Craiggiemore, Fish,
Mary Mac, West
Laverton and Apollo
Summit is the old
WMC Lancef ie ld mine
and contains
refractory ore
Following operat ional
review and more
detai led ore sampling
mining at Admiral Hi l l
could recommence
soon
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 8 of 15
mill without further incident. Test-work into the restart of this pit has commenced, no
further development is required as highlighted in Fig. 7. CRE (FML) just needs to get
on top of the metallurgy of the deposit.
Fig. 7: Admiral Hill open pit
Source: Hartleys Research
Fig. 8: Crescent Mineral Resources
Resource Measured Indicated Inferred Total
Deposit Tonnes
(Kt) Grade (g/t)
Tonnes (Kt)
Grade (g/t)
Tonnes (Kt)
Grade (g/t)
Tonnes (Kt)
Grade (g/t) Au Oz
Admiral Hill - - 4060 1.2 1000 1.2 5060 1.2 200,000
Barnicoat - - 340 1.3 250 1.0 590 1.2 22,000
Bells - - 595 2.0 35 1.4 630 2.0 40,000
Black Label - - - - 610 1.0 610 1.0 20,000
Burtville - - 700 1.5 - - 700 1.6 35,000
Castaway - - 250 1.5 30 1.8 280 1.6 14,000
Craiggiemore - - 935 2.3 110 2.8 1045 2.4 79,000
Euro - - 255 1.7 310 1.7 565 1.7 31,000
Fish - - 445 4.0 130 3.7 575 3.9 73,000
Grouse - - 520 1.7 30 1.3 550 1.7 30,000
Ida H - - - - 630 1.4 630 1.4 28,000
Lily Pond Well - - - - 340 1.4 340 1.4 15,000
Lord Byron - - 3200 1.0 2000 0.9 5200 1.0 160,000
Mary Mac - - 500 2.1 15 1.6 515 2.1 35,000
Mary Mac S - - 770 1.7 90 1.8 860 1.7 48,000
Sickle 390 1.7 200 2.6 150 3.1 740 2.2 52,000
West Laverton 41 1.9 1270 1.8 300 1.5 1611 1.7 89,000
Liberty - - 800 2.1 830 2.0 1630 2.0 107,000
Calypso - - 310 2.8 110 1.7 420 2.5 34,000
Elation - - 50 1.7 120 1.6 170 1.6 9,000
Eclipse - - 200 2.9 150 2.0 350 2.5 28,000
Aurora - - 180 2.9 380 2.3 560 2.5 45,000
Emerald - - 1590 2.1 1100 2.1 2690 2.1 179,000
Apollo 107 2.4 2082 2.2 278 2.6 2467 2.3 179,000
Summit - - 2040 6.5 620 7.1 2660 6.6 568,000
Crown Jewel - - - - 90 6.0 90 6.2 18,000
Odyssey - - 70 4.0 3 5.0 73 4.3 10,000
TOTAL 538 1.7 21,362 2.2 9,711 2.0 31,611 2.2 2,254,000
Source: Crescent Gold Limited; All resources reported at 30 June 2010, except Apollo resource reported 7 June 2011.
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 9 of 15
The resources at Barnicoat, Burtville, Craggiemore, Ida H, Sickle, West Laverton,
Crown Jewel, Odyssey, Apollo and Liberty lie below existing open pits, while
resources at Craggiemore, Mary Mac, Ida H and Summit (old WMC Lancefield mine)
are transected by historic underground workings.
Mineral Resources for Summit are based on historic underground mine records and
reports; mining occurred prior 1940 and from 1980 to 1994. Following a deep drilling
programme and assessment of historical data, a comprehensive resource evaluation
was completed by Resource Service Group in 1995.
Development studies have recently focused on the Apollo, Aurora, Eclipse and
Calypso deposits, 7 km to the west of Laverton. Diamond drill holes were recently
drilled into the Aurora and Calypso deposits for the purpose to supply material for
density test work and to build a better understanding of geological controls on
mineralisation. These deposits could provide further development opportunities.
COMPARATIVES The combined entity will have gold resources of 4.5Moz. Crescent’s current resource
is 2.25Moz at a grade of 2.1g/t Au, with the vast majority of the resources contained
within shallow-oxide open pits. Focus’ current resource is also 2.25Moz but at a
slightly higher grade of 2.6g/t Au, due to some higher grade underground resources.
Combined reserves through the merger would be ~746koz at grade of ~2.1g/t Au.
Focus’ post-merger EV/Resource metric is calculated to be $62/oz, a considerable
discount to its producer peers average of $115/oz, which provides a revaluation
opportunity for the Company. The transaction price CRE 5.9cps (FML 7cps))
equates to ~$35/resource oz.
Fig. 9: EV/Resource Peer Comparison
Source: Hartleys Research
PRELIMINARY VALUATION METRICS Assuming that all the CRE options are cancelled by agreement with the CRE option
holders for a cash amount (based on Black/Scholes option valuations at the
Announcement Date) and that all CRE shareholders convert to FML shares at 1.18
CRE share for every FML share, FML post acquisition should have 4,515.8m shares
on issue.
115
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Med
usa
Allie
d
Tro
y
New
cre
st
Kin
gsgate
Reg
is
Tera
ng
a
Inte
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Ala
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ern
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r
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us
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CG
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i
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nquest
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an
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n
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ity
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scen
t
No
rto
n
Ap
ex
No
rsem
an
Citig
old
A1
Navig
ato
r
A$
/oz
EV/Resource oz (A$/oz)
437
90
62
25
523
The combined ent ity
wil l have gold
resources of 4.5Moz
Combined reserves
through the merger
would be ~746koz at
grade of ~2.1g/t Au
Focus’ post -merger
EV/Resource metr ic is
calculated to be
$62/oz, a discount to
i ts producer peers
average of $115/oz,
which provides a
revaluat ion
opportunity
Focus post acquis it ion
should have an EV of
over A$278m, with
forecast product ion of
~230koz in CY’12
Mining at Mary Mac is
about to recommence,
fol lowing the safe
col lapse of open pit
ore into an old
underground void
Apollo, Aurora,
Eclipse and Calypso
deposits are only 7 km
to the west of
Laverton
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 10 of 15
Fig. 10: Merged Entity Implied Value
Company Crescent Focus Focus
(post acquisition)
ASX Code CRE FML FML
Shares m 1,197.1 3,440.5 4,515.8
Share Price $ 0.055 0.07 0.07
Options* m 80.1 77.9 77.9
Market Cap $m 65.8 240.8 316.1
Cash $m 6.1 31.1 37.5
Debt (Con Note) $m 13.5 0 0
Debt (Bank) $m 0 0 0
EV $m 73.2 209.7 278.6
Prod Forecast CY'12 100,000 130,000 230,000
Tenements sqkm 1,400 449 1,849
Reserves Moz 0.499 0.247 0.746
Resources Moz 2.25 2.25 4.5
*Assumes that all CRE options are cancelled by agreement with the CRE option holders for a cash amount (based on Black/Scholes option valuations at the Announcement Date)
Source: Focus Minerals Limited; Hartleys Research
Our current valuation for Focus is $386m, which equates to ~11c/share. We have a
developed a preliminary sum of parts valuation for Crescent of ~$137m. This is
dominated by our NPV10 for the Laverton Gold Project of ~$119m. Crescent’s other
assets include the Barnicoat mill and uranium ground, which we have been very
conservative in our assigned value (the mill alone is likely to have a value of $15m).
The Laverton exploration value of $10m assumes some resource growth and small
additional discoveries; we have removed Summit (Lancefield) from our valuation,
leaving upside should an economically viable feasibility study be reported for the
considered refractory underground ore.
Crescent Gold also has an accumulated loss of A$184m, which assuming a tax
ruling and successful merger, FML should be able to use to off-set future Company
profits (or part thereof). We have assumed that no tax is paid from the Laverton
operations for the initial 4-years assumed in our model, but have not used assigned
value to the accumulated losses outside this for simplicity (leaving further upside in
our preliminary model). We see the transaction as value accretive and as such we
continue to recommend Focus Minerals Limited as a Buy.
Fig. 11: Preliminary Valuation
Share Price Valuation (NAV) 4,515.8
Est. $m Est. $m Est. $m Est. $/share
FML CRE FML (PA) FML (PA)
Coolgardie (NPV @ 8%) 302.7
302.7 0.067
Laverton Gold (NPV @ 10%)
119.1 119.1 0.026
Crescent Other Assets
15.0 15.0 0.003
Nepean Nickel Asset 15.0
15.0 0.003
Exploration 30.0 10.0 40.0 0.009
Cash 31.1 6.1 37.5 0.008
Forwards 0.0
0.0 0.000
Corporate Overheads (NPV @ 3%) (6.1)
(6.1) (0.001)
Total Debt 0.0 (13.5) 0.0 0.000
Tax Losses 6.2 1* 6.2 0.001
Options & Other Equity 6.9 6.9 0.002
Total 386 137 536 0.12
Source: Hartleys Research; Note 1* CRE has A$184.7m in accumulated losses;
FML should be able to use the vast majority of these to off-set future profits.
Our Laverton Gold
model assumes
quarter ly ore
processing of just
over 500kt/q at open
pit reserve grades,
di luted for mining (not
exceeding 1.7g/ t)
We assume 90% mil l
recoveries over a 4-
year l i fe (we expect
the OPA to be
renegotiated and
extended)
Our Eq cash costs
start high at
A$1200/oz and
improve after 3
quarters to A$920/oz
higher than the
targeted A$850/oz
CRE also has an
accumulated loss of
A$184m
The consideration
being offered to
Crescent
Shareholders is one
FML share for every
1.18 CRE shares held
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 11 of 15
KEY DATES & CONDITIONS The timetable is:
Monday, 20 June 2011 Announcement of Transaction
Wednesday, 29 June 2011 Focus lodges its Bidder’s Statement with ASIC and ASX and serves
it on Crescent
Wednesday, 29 June 2011 Crescent lodges its Target’s Statement with ASIC and ASX and
serves it on Focus
Thursday, 30 June 2011 Joint despatch of Bidder's Statement and Target’s Statement
Thursday, 30 June 2011 Offer Opens
Monday, 1 August 2011 Close of Offer (unless extended)
Pursuant to the BIA, Focus and Crescent have agreed customary exclusivity
arrangements, including “no shop” and “no talk” provisions.
The bid is subject to there being no other superior bids.
Minimum acceptance condition of 90%
No material adverse change in relation to Crescent
No prescribed occurrences in relation to Crescent
No break fee payable to any other party
The value of the Focus Offer depends on the market price of Focus Shares. The
following table sets out the implied value of Focus Offer assuming different market
prices of FML shares:
Fig. 12: Offer Calculator
FML Share Price Implied CRE Offer Price
8.5 7.2
8.4 7.1
8.3 7.0
8.2 6.9
8.1 6.9
8.0 6.8
7.9 6.7
7.8 6.6
7.7 6.5
7.6 6.4
7.5 6.4
7.4 6.3
7.3 6.2
7.2 6.1
7.1 6.0
7.0 5.9
6.9 5.8
6.8 5.8
6.7 5.7
6.6 5.6
6.5 5.5
Source: Hartleys Research
Bidder’s and Target ’s
Statements lodged
Offer opened 30 t h
June 2011
Unless extended the
Offer should close 1 s t
August 2011
Minimum acceptance
of 90%
No break fees
Off market takeover
for CRE at an implied
pre-open bid pr ice of
6.5c per CRE share, a
30.5% premium to
Crescent ’s pre -b id
closing price (17 June
2011)
Hartleys Limited Focus Minerals Limited 6 July 2011
Page 12 of 15
RISKS We see the key risk to Focus Minerals is that the Crescent Laverton operation
continues to underperform with costs escalating (increased cash costs) and erode
cash flows. Adverse weather conditions have been the main cause for operational
underperformance for the December and March quarters. Crescent has, since the
March quarter implemented changes to improve operations, such as develop pits
well in advance of mining, establish a new mining village at the key Fish deposit and
continue to build a large stockpile of high-grade and medium-grade ore at the
Granny Smith mill.
Another risk for Focus to mitigate (should the merger be successful) is the risk that
Barrick fills the idle capacity of the Granny Smith mill its own ore (processing risk).
We consider this risk to be low; given the size of the mill and current idle capacity of
~70%. Also, there is no reported nearby ore sources that could fill capacity.
Other risks include being involved in any mining operations, whereby the orebody
underperforms (unusual and unexpected geologic formations are encountered and
other geotechnical issues impact on mining), weather events (such as localised
flooding) impact on ore removal and haulage to the processing facility and
contractors used for services fail to deliver on the mine schedule or proposed
development. These risks can be mitigated through effective mine planning and
scheduling and drilling well in advance of development to ensure deposit confidence
in regards to tonnes, grade, contained ounces and expected dilution.
SUMMARY AND COMMENTARY We see this as a very significant transaction for the Company, as it will give Focus a
solid springboard to not only increase production, but also add a pipeline of
exploration opportunities in proven goldfield that contains large gold deposits.
The transaction enables Focus to grow production, effectively doubling resources
and diversify operations. Targeted production from Crescent’s Laverton operation is
expected to add ~100kozpa for combined production of 230koz in CY2012. With
increased production the Company believes cash costs can improved and is
targeting cash costs below $900/oz for both operations. We see this target as
achievable through operational efficiencies and grade improvements, but to be
conservative in our modelling we take into account higher cash costs.
The combined group has a strong portfolio of expanding mine operations and a
pipeline of exploration opportunities. Post-merger integration will provide the
financial capability and in-house experience to unlock Crescent’s exploration value
across the Laverton district; a well endowed goldfield that has produced over 25Moz
of gold from deposits less than 200m deep.
Our preliminary valuation on Crescent sees value in the transaction and we continue
to recommend Focus Minerals Limited as a Buy. The offer opened on the 30th June
2011 and closes on the 1st of August 2011, unless extended.
The key r isk to Focus
is that the Laverton
operat ion continues to
underperform and
erode cash f lows
The transaction
enables Focus to grow
production, effectively
doubl ing resources
and diversi fy
operat ions
The combined group
has a strong portfo l io
of expanding mine
operat ions and a
pipeline of exploration
opportunit ies
We see value in the
transit ion and we
cont inue to
recommend Focus
Minerals Limited as a
Buy
Page 13 of 15
HARTLEYS RESEARCH COVERAGE LIST Hartleys Research Coverage Hartleys Hartleys
Name Ticker Last M. CAP Status Research Name Ticker Last M. CAP Status Research
Price* (A$m) Recommendation Price* (A$m) Recommendation
Resources Oil & Gas
Gold Conventional Oil & Gas
1. Intrepid Mines Limited IAU 1.46 623 Explorer Speculative Buy 1. Woodside Petroleum Ltd WPL 40.81 31,837 Major Buy
2. Beadell Resources Limited BDR 0.855 531 Developer Accumulate 2. Nexus Energy Ltd NXS 0.34 326 Developer / Explorer No Rating
3. Gold One International Limited GDO 0.505 407 Producer No Rating 3. Tap Oil Ltd TAP 0.84 201 Producer / Explorer Buy
4. Silver Lake Resources Limited SLR 2.12 379 Producer Buy 4. FAR Ltd FAR 0.11 137 Explorer / Producer Speculative Buy
5. Integra Mining Limited IGR 0.470 355 Producer Accumulate 5. Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd CVN 0.19 130 Producer / Explorer Accumulate
6. Tanami Gold NL TAM 0.890 231 Producer Accumulate 6. Cooper Energy Ltd COE 0.38 111 Producer / Explorer Buy
7. Catalpa Resources Limited CAH 1.41 229 Producer Buy 7. Otto Energy Ltd OEL 0.09 98 Explorer / Producer Buy
8. Focus Minerals Ltd FML 0.070 200 Producer Buy 8. Amadeus Energy Ltd AMU 0.22 66 Producer / Explorer Neutral
9. Northern Star Resources Ltd NST 0.445 134 Producer Buy 9. Haw kley Oil and Gas Ltd HOG 0.33 61 Producer / Explorer Buy
10. PMI Gold Corporation Limited PVM 0.650 125 Developer Speculative Buy 10. WHL Energy Ltd WHN 0.03 25 Explorer / Producer Speculative Buy
11. YTC Resources Limited YTC 0.590 116 Developer Speculative Buy 11. Sun Resources NL SUR 0.03 10 Explorer / Producer Neutral
12. Papillon Resources Limited PIR 0.535 98 Explorer Speculative Buy
13. Cortona Resources Limited CRC 0.135 26 Developer Speculative Buy 12. Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd AUT 3.42 1,381 Producer / Developer Reduce
14. Ausquest Limited AQD 0.110 25 Explorer Speculative Buy 13. Samson Oil & Gas Ltd SSN 0.135 233 Developer / Producer Buy
15. Emmerson Resources Limited ERM 0.115 23 Explorer Speculative Buy 14. Oilex Ltd OEX 0.37 92 Explorer / Producer Speculative Buy
16. Canyon Resources Limited CAY 0.325 10 Explorer Speculative Buy 15. European Gas Ltd EPG 0.39 78 Producer / Explorer Speculative Buy
17. Geopacif ic Resources NL GPR 0.205 8 Explorer Speculative Buy 16. Strike Energy Ltd STX 0.19 61 Explorer / Producer Buy
18. Southern Gold Limited SAU 0.052 7 Explorer Speculative Buy 17. Entek Energy Ltd ETE 0.17 49 Producer / Explorer Speculative Buy
Iron Ore Sub-Total 34,897
19. Atlas Iron Limited AGO 3.79 2,071 Producer Buy Industrials
20. Centaurus Metals Ltd CTM 0.084 71 Explorer Speculative Buy Resource Services - Capital Intensive
Coal 1. Ausdrill Limited ASL 3.31 1,008 Contract Drilling Buy
21. Riversdale Mining Limited RIV 16.20 3,052 Developer No Rating 2. NRW Holdings Ltd NWH 2.68 752 Contract mining Accumulate
Base Metals 3. Mermaid Marine Ltd MRM 3.24 690 Oil & Gas Services Accumulate
22. Independence Group NL IGO 5.680 1,150 Gold, Ni, Zn, Cu
Producer/Explorer
Buy 4. Fleetw ood Corporation FWD 11.26 645 Accomodation Neutral
23. Aviva Corporation Limited AVA 0.210 29 Explorer Speculative Buy 5. Matrix Composites &
Engineering Limited
MCE 7.99 583 Oil & Gas Services Buy
Other metals 6. Imdex Ltd IMD 2.22 444 Drilling Supplies Buy
24. Kasbah Resources Limited KAS 0.225 53 Tin Developer Buy 7. Macmahon Holdings Limited MAH 0.56 411 Contract mining Neutral
25. Shaw River Resources Limited SRR 0.175 44 Manganese:
Explorer/Developer
Speculative Buy 8. MACA Ltd MLD 2.40 360 Contract mining Buy
26. Hazelw ood Resources Ltd HAZ 0.155 36 Tungsten Developer Speculative Buy 9. Pacif ic Energy Ltd PEA 0.45 158 Remote Pow er Buy
Uranium 10. Sw ick Mining Services Ltd SWK 0.39 92 Contract Drilling Speculative Buy
27. Peninsula Energy Ltd PEN 0.074 155 Developer Buy Resource Services - Labour Intensive
28. Impact Minerals Limited IPT 0.056 7 Explorer Speculative Buy 11. Monadelphous Group Limited MND 18.53 1,594 Construction Buy
Sub-Total 10,197 12. Decmil Group Limited DCG 2.73 338 Construction Buy
13. Lycopodium Limited LYL 6.34 245 Engineer. & Constr. Accumulate
14. RCR Tomlinson Ltd RCR 1.71 226 Engineer. & Constr. Buy
15. LogiCamms Limited LCM 1.05 70 Engineer. & Constr. Speculative Buy
16. VDM Group Limited VMG 0.16 34 Engineer. & Constr. Speculative Buy
Other Industrial Companies
17. Seven West Media Limited SWM 4.12 3,175 Media Accumulate
18. Austal Limited ASB 2.81 528 Civil and Military
Vessels
Buy
19. iiNet Limited IIN 2.63 400 Telecommunications Buy
20. Cash Converters Internat.
Limited
CCV 0.74 296 Unsecured Finance Buy
21. Amcom Telecommunications
Limited
AMM 0.36 258 Telecommunications Buy
22. RedHill Education Ltd RDH 0.16 4 'For profit' education Neutral
Sub-Total 12,311
67. GRAND TOTAL 57,405
Source: IRESS, Hartleys Research. * 6 Jul 2011
Non Conventional Oil & Gas
Page 14 of 15
HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY
Research Trent Barnett Head of Research +61 8 9268 3052
Mike Millikan Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 2805
David Wall
Energy Analyst +61 8 9268 2826
Peter Gray Analyst +61 8 9268 2837
Janine Bell Research Assistant +61 8 9268 2831
Corporate Finance Grey Egerton-Warburton Head of Corp Fin. +61 8 9268 2851
Richard Simpson Director – Corp. Fin. +61 8 9268 2824
Paul Fryer Director – Corp. Fin. +61 8 9268 2819
Dale Bryan Director – Corp. Fin. +61 8 9268 2829
Ben Wale Snr Mgr – Corp. Fin. +61 8 9268 3055
Ben Crossing Snr Mgr – Corp. Fin. +61 8 9268 3047
Stephen Kite Snr Mgr Corp. Fin. +61 8 9268 3050
Scott Weir Corp. Finance Exec. +61 8 9268 2821
Registered Office
Level 6, 141 St Georges Tce Postal Address:
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Hartleys Recommendation Categories
Buy Share price appreciation anticipated.
Accumulate Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is
not as attractive as a “Buy”. Alternatively, for the share
price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an
uncertain or distant event. Analyst will often indicate a
price level at which it may become a “Buy”.
Neutral Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly
balanced.
Reduce /
Take profits
There is unlikely to be further gains over the investment
time horizon but there is a possibility of some price
weakness over that period.
Sell Significant price depreciation anticipated.
No Rating No recommendation.
Speculative
Buy
Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that,
on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there is
at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful
possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to
significant share price reduction. Consequently, the
investment is considered high risk.
Institutional Sales Carrick Ryan +61 8 9268 2864
Justin Stewart +61 8 9268 3062
Simon van den Berg +61 8 9268 2867
Steven Boyce +61 8 9268 2817
Nick Wheeler +61 8 9268 3053
Wealth Management Nicola Bond +61 8 9268 2840
Bradley Booth +61 8 9268 2873
Adrian Brant +61 8 9268 3065
Nathan Bray +61 8 9268 2874
Sven Burrell +61 8 9268 2847
Simon Casey +61 8 9268 2875
Tony Chien +61 8 9268 2850
Travis Clark +61 8 9268 2876
David Cross +61 8 9268 2860
Nicholas Draper +61 8 9268 2883
John Featherby +61 8 9268 2811
Ben Fleay +61 8 9268 2844
John Georgiades +61 8 9268 2887
John Goodlad +61 8 9268 2890
Andrew Gribble +61 8 9268 2842
David Hainsworth +61 8 9268 3040
Neil Inglis +61 8 9268 2894
Murray Jacob +61 8 9268 2892
Bradley Knight +61 8 9268 2823
Gavin Lehmann +61 8 9268 2895
Shane Lehmann +61 8 9268 2897
Steven Loxley +61 8 9268 2857
Andrew Macnaughtan +61 8 9268 2898
Christian Marriott +61 8 9268 2828
Scott Metcalf +61 8 9268 2807
David Michael +61 8 9268 2835
Damir Mikulic +61 8 9268 3027
Nicole Morcombe +61 8 9268 2896
Jamie Moullin +61 8 9268 2856
Chris Munro +61 8 9268 2858
Michael Munro +61 8 9268 2820
Ian Parker +61 8 9268 2810
Ian Plowman +61 8 9268 3054
Margaret Radici +61 8 9268 3051
Charlie Ransom
(CEO)
+61 8 9268 2868
Elliott Rowton +61 8 9268 3059
Conlie Salvemini +61 8 9268 2833
David Smyth +61 8 9268 2839
Greg Soudure +61 8 9268 2834
Sonya Soudure +61 8 9268 2865
Dirk Vanderstruyf +61 8 9268 2855
Alex Wallis +61 8 9268 3060
Marlene White +61 8 9268 2806
Samuel Williams +61 8 9268 3041
Disclaimer/Disclosure
The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (“Hartleys”), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold
shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those
securities. Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising
from any advice mentioned in publications to clients.
Hartleys has completed a capital raising in the past 12 months for Focus Minerals Limited (“Focus”), for which it has earned fees. Hartleys has
also provided corporate advice within the past 12 months and continues to provide corporate advice to Focus for which it has earned fees and
continues to earn fees. Hartleys is acting as Corporate Adviser to Focus in its friendly off-market takeover of Crescent Gold Limited for which it
will earn fees. The analyst travelled to site at the expense of Focus, with all associated costs being covered by Focus.
Any financial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting
your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.
Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any financial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued.
Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in
negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law.