E-Commerce Cover Story

8
CSP May 2014 36 Illustration by Kotryna Zukauskaite A mid talk of Amazon drones, the obsolescence of the U.S. Post Office and the disruptive force of e-commerce, coupled with the relatively new world of mobile-phone use and online shop- ping, the convenience store industry may be on the verge of ... something we have yet to pinpoint. No one believes c-stores as we know them will go away. The construct of convenience has built-in bunkers such as the impulse buy, gasoline sales and age-restricted products. That said, the click vs. brick debate is a compelling one. As an industry investing in the future of the latter, the drive to at least consider the possibilities of what lies in front of us is strong. That’s what three CSP magazine editors have done. Taking a more personal, introspective approach to a largely subjective and elusive topic, Angel Abcede, Abbey Lewis and Melissa Vonder Haar explored different aspects of the debate—supply chain, cross-channel competitors and c-store evolution—to provide a comprehensive review of the matter, identifying potential threats and looking ahead to what retailers need to do to come out on top. The disruptive force of e-commerce [cover story] BRICK , CLICK , BOOM

Transcript of E-Commerce Cover Story

Page 1: E-Commerce Cover Story

C S P May 201436

Illus

trat

ion

by K

otry

na Z

ukau

skai

teAmid talk of Amazon drones, the obsolescence

of the U.S. Post Office and the disruptive force

of e-commerce, coupled with the relatively new

world of mobile-phone use and online shop-

ping, the convenience store industry may be on

the verge of ... something we have yet to pinpoint.

No one believes c-stores as we know them will go away.

The construct of convenience has built-in bunkers such as the

impulse buy, gasoline sales and age-restricted products.

That said, the click vs. brick debate is a compelling one. As

an industry investing in the future of the latter, the drive to at

least consider the possibilities of what lies in front of us is strong.

That’s what three CSP magazine editors have done. Taking

a more personal, introspective approach to a largely subjective

and elusive topic, Angel Abcede, Abbey Lewis and Melissa

Vonder Haar explored different aspects of the debate—supply

chain, cross-channel competitors and c-store evolution—to

provide a comprehensive review of the matter, identifying

potential threats and looking ahead to what retailers need to do

to come out on top.

The disruptive force of e-commerce

[cover story]

BRICK,CLICK,BOOM

Page 2: E-Commerce Cover Story

C S P May 2014 37

Replacing Cars: As brick-and-mortar stores lose customers to online purchasing, many retailers are seeking new strategies for retaining shoppers.

The disruptive force of e-commerce

BRICK,CLICK,BOOM

Page 3: E-Commerce Cover Story

C S P May 201438

The Weight of Disruption

By Angel Abcede [email protected]

Three months ago, a house-flipping

pal was helping me organize my

kitchen. One of the first things

she did was rip the dead phone off the

wall, shove the cables back in the hole and

spackle over it.

The freedom of today’s mobility is

sublime and mind-blowing. At what

point do I realize I don’t need my lizard

tail? That I don’t have to wait in line for

a movie ticket, drive to the drug store for

razors or actually walk into a bank—ever?

And that the corner post office with

its beautiful Depression-era sculptures

of men and women working to rebuild

a nation is in danger of being shuttered,

like my old wall phone shoved back in a

hole and spackled over forever.

OK, stop. The weight of seeing my

universe as a box within a box within yet

another box is wearing me down, making

me feel dated, like a Field Museum fossil.

And in doing so, I consider fixing how

I do things in light of today’s technology

to save both time and money. A new sun

is rising, and I vow to let go of what was

and embrace what is.

As a citizen of the New World Order,

I regroup. I think, well, I’ll never buy

another bookcase—or book, for that

matter. The bank is screwed; I don’t know

why they insist on building new branches

on every corner. And yes, tell me what else

I can do with my phone besides make

calls, check emails and text.

There are many reasons to think that

e-commerce is a threat to convenience

retail. Brands are making clear moves

to compile names, track data and build

relationships. Amazon.com is getting into

groceries. Brick-and-mortar’s purpose in

a mobile world has yet to settle out—or,

put another way, the clock is ticking for

the physical store to prove its relevance.

Don’t get me wrong: Barriers to

exit, as it were, at least for c-stores, are

formidable. Everyone still has to buy

gas, even though fuel-efficient cars and

digital opportunities for working at home

are chipping away at that stronghold.

C-stores sell impulse items: single-serve

drinks, taquitos, coffee, grab-and-go

stuff to satisfy the here and now. Beer,

cigarettes and lottery tickets are all age-

restricted products. And, of course,

there’s the social piece.

But think now on the things mobility

and e-commerce can affect:

▶ Less driving, less fuel sales. Even

if it’s driving less to the grocery store, it’s

still fewer trips and less gas.

▶ Fewer branded snacks, candy and

beverages sold, as manufacturers move to

direct relationships and, yes, direct deliv-

ery to customers. Think FreshDirect and

monthly snack services such as NatureBox.

▶ Fewer or no trade fees. A second-

ary and possibly more harmful result

of manufacturers relating directly with

consumers is a dramatic shift in how they

spend their marketing dollars.

But there are upsides, too:

▶ Fewer credit-card fees. Mobility

may mean more secure, convenient ways

to pay that can circumvent the credit-card

companies.

▶ Entry into the vast billions sold

via coupons, something that the indus-

try—with the exception of tobacco—has

essentially opted out of for years.

▶ C-stores as an increasingly important

way for manufacturers to deliver goods.

With retailers being today’s resource for

who’s buying what, they potentially could

better position themselves in the supply

chain by aiding manufacturers in their

desire to build their databases.

At the center of this what-if scenario is

the supply chain. Strip away the gee-whiz

nature of shopping online and the true

problem every manufacturer, supplier and

retailer faces is delivery and logistics. How

does a package get shipped from the man-

ufacturer and delivered to the consumer?

How does that box move from distribu-

tion center to the consumer’s doorstep?

That “last mile” is a question even

Amazon has yet to answer. While it has its

own distribution system, for many parts

of the country, Amazon still partners with

established delivery companies such as

FedEx and UPS. And for customers want-

ing two-day home delivery, Amazon still

charges a fee via Amazon Prime.

“There’s always a niche market for

something, and I see this as a service for

an urban, densely populated market,”

says Ron Coppel, senior vice president of

national accounts for Naperville, Ill.-based

c-store wholesale distributor Eby-Brown.

“It’s a question of: Will it severely hurt our

channel? I don’t think so.”

In addition to pointing out how ser-

vices such as online grocery and smoke

shops have independently had nominal

effects on the channel so far, Coppel sug-

gests that the c-store supply chain in place

is efficient and something that Amazon

would have to replicate to be competi-

tive. “And if it hurts someone in a channel

when these alternatives come out, they

tend to hurt the weaker ones,” he says.

Here’s where the drones come in. And

before you laugh, the fantasy of using

drones for direct delivery may sound

ludicrous, but consider how many mil-

itary-originated technologies have made

it into the mainstream: GPS (global posi-

tioning system), microwaves and duct

Page 4: E-Commerce Cover Story

C S P May 2014 39

tape, to name a few.

That said, retailer and loyalty-card pro-

vider Pat Lewis says, “Drones could just be

hype, something that Amazon put out there

to be considered an innovative company.”

The smarter comparison would be to

Bentonville, Ark.-based Walmart, says Gray

Taylor, executive director of the Alexandria,

Va.-based Petroleum Convenience Alliance

for Technology Standards (PCATS).

“Walmart has the ability to say, ‘I can

deliver product to the consumer today,

for no shipping cost,” Taylor says. “The

customer still has to come to the store,

but [big-box retail] has kicked back on

pricing and selection and there’s no ship-

ping costs. It’s the Achilles’ heel for online.

I call it the revenge of brick and mortar.”

For c-stores, there’s the opportunity

to “optimize the last mile,” Taylor says,

particularly with the idea of delivery lock-

ers: “If you live in an apartment building,

you don’t want to have the delivery man

leave your brand new Mac [computer]

in the lobby.”

For Scott Hartman, president and

CEO of Rutter’s Farm Stores, York, Pa.,

age-restricted product is a stronghold.

Coincidentally, around the same time I

spoke with Scott, the state of New York

was accusing FedEx of illegally shipping 80

million cigarettes to New Yorkers, leading

to $10 million in uncollected taxes.

The immediate threat of online

shopping is with grocery and big-box,

Hartman believes: Their large-volume

business model may be vulnerable as traf-

fic diminishes. But less driving also hurts

our industry, he says.

Taylor fails to see a big threat to the

c-store channel: “I’m not going to order

a bag of chips on Amazon. If it’s diapers,

maybe I’ll get on [an online] diaper-

replenishment program. I’m even in the

dollar-shave club, where I get razors sent

to me. That stuff make sense; it’s a low

shipping cost.”

The newer frontier appears to be in

the development of brand relationships

directly tied to consumers, says Anton

Bakker, CEO and founder of Outsite

Networks, Norfolk, Va. In addition to

developing a loyalty offer for the c-store

channel, he has worked directly with cou-

pon distributor Catalina Marketing, St.

Petersburg, Fla. He says Catalina’s ability

to track movement and understand shop-

ping behavior is a compelling part of the

bigger picture.

One company eager to tie its brands to

consumers directly is Deerfield, Ill.-based

Mondelez International. The company

recently launched Betabox, a project that

enables brands to target product samples

at what it calls “specific consumers by

distributing them through reputable

e-commerce partners.”

It’s a targeted approach using analytics

and customer data, along the lines Bakker

implies.

“They’re going to find ways to get the

data with or without the retailer,” Bakker

says. “To stay in the game, retailers have to

give up some of the golden egg, but not

the goose. In other words, give enough

data for a sales lift and loyalty but not too

much to lose your retail customer.”

Bakker offers the example of a buy-

one-get-one-free offer. Typically, CPG

companies fund such promotions. If a

brand decides it can use those market-

ing dollars more effectively, a retail chain

may lose out and may no longer have the

ability to offer that promotion, while a

competitor might still be able to.

Where Bakker sees a potential threat,

Taylor of PCATS sees opportunity. Con-

sidering the convenience channel’s scorn

toward paper-based coupons, e-com-

Source: Nielsen/TDLinx

Small Formats Driving GrowthOf the 16,570 new U.S. retail stores in the Top 20 Expansion Chains,small formats dominated from 2007 to 2013.

5,882Dollar stores35.5%

C-stores32.2%

Drug stores20.5%

5,340

3,403

Grocery7.1%

Mass merchandisers4.7%

1,158

787

Page 5: E-Commerce Cover Story

C S P May 2014 41

merce puts c-stores back into the mix

with regards to the “billions” of dollars

going through coupons.

“We ripped out coupon functionality

in the ’90s to make way for fuel,” Taylor

says. “What’s going to happen is there

are more ‘timed’ offers from CPG com-

panies: ‘Hey, you’ve got an hour to go in

and cash this coupon.’ If we can take the

mobile coupon, it’s the same [as a paper

coupon]. I think it’s good news for us.”

So while I shudder at the potential

closing of my neighborhood post office,

I welcome the vitality that will hopefully

take its place.

Change is coming—whether it be a

cool new drone or a sunny delivery person.

Beyond

ConvenienceBy Melissa Vonder Haar

[email protected]

Confession: The day I discovered I

could hop on my computer at 2

a.m. and order a supreme pizza

catered to my whims (no mushrooms,

extra cheese and marinara on the side to

dip the crust in) was life-changing.

Little did I know that 10 years later,

the same delivery sites that helped me

stave off college hangovers would help

me eat healthier today. I routinely place

orders on my smartphone after delayed

flights have ruined dinner plans. Instead

of a late-night bowl of cereal, I can enjoy

a custom-tossed salad that arrives shortly

after I walk through the door.

As a member of the oft-discussed mil-

lennial generation, living in the urban

sprawl of New York, perhaps it is not sur-

prising that online shopping is a way of life

for me. It’s not just pure e-commerce sites

such as Amazon. I’ve purchased every-

thing from my winter coat to prescription

refills and, yes, occasionally groceries.

I’m not alone. Revenues from “pure-

play” e-commerce sites grew from $9.3

billion in the fourth quarter of 2001 to

more than $69.1 billion in the fourth

quarter of 2013, according to the U.S.

Census Bureau. Total pure e-commerce

sales reached $262.5 billion last year.

Are you shivering in fearful sweats?

Don’t worry—at least not yet. That figure,

though impressive and rapidly ascending,

is only one-third of the $771 billion of

fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG)

across supermarkets, drug stores, con-

venience stores, dollar stores, mass mer-

chandisers and club stores (excluding

Costco), tracked by Nielsen.

That said, FMCG’s growth pace pales

next to e-commerce’s explosion, climb-

ing by just 10% from 2009 to 2013. Todd

Hale, Nielsen’s senior vice president of

consumer and shopper insights, says

increases in 2011 and 2012 were fueled

by inflationary pressures.

“Specialty retail channels are most

impacted by e-commerce: Within the

FMCG space we track, the impact has

probably not been as big as many might

have expected,” Hale says. Planned pur-

chases such as diapers, vitamins and

beauty care are more prone to e-com-

merce competition. “However, without

question, slow FMCG growth across

measured channels is in part a reflection

of gains made by e-commerce.”

With a focus on fuel and impulse pur-

chases, the c-store channel is less suscep-

tible to these threats. Our grocery, drug

and big-box competitors, however, are all

starting to feel the e-commerce squeeze.

Fighting BackFew brick-and-mortar retailers can truly

compete with Amazon in terms of robust

online selection, but that hasn’t stopped

several FMCG operators from striking

back. The key, according to Hale, is lever-

aging the kind of consumer relationships

and know-how that can be developed

only through in-person interactions to

build a rewarding online experience.

“Retailers are fighting back by creat-

ing their own e-commerce capabilities,

innovating in ways that Amazon can’t,”

Hale says, pointing to in-store experi-

ences, “click and collect” offering and

strengthened loyalty programs.

Specific examples include:

▶ Real-Time Value: Helping their

consumers to save both money and time,

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau

Quarter Total retail vs.previous quarter

E-commerce vs.previous quarter

Total retail vs.previous quarter

E-commerce vs.previous year

Q42010 3.0% 4.4% 6.9% 17.5%

Q42011 1.8% 6.3% 7.0% 16.4%

Q42012 1.4% 4.6% 4.5% 15.7%

Q42013 0.6% 3.4% 3.8% 16.0%

Breaking PaceE-commerce had a beyond-promising fourth quarter of 2013, with $69 billion in sales (represent-ing nearly 6% of total CPG sales). But the truly impressive stats are the rates at which e-commerce sales are growing, quarter over quarter and year over year compared to total retail sales.

Page 6: E-Commerce Cover Story

C S P May 201442

Wal-Mart is testing a Savings Catcher tool

on its website. After shopping at Walmart,

consumers can compare prices on every

purchase to advertised prices of up to 20

competitors by simply typing their receipt

number into the Savings Catcher page.

Any price difference is loaded onto a gift

card that can be used online or in the store.

▶ Real-Time Needs: Sure, Amazon

sells cheap umbrellas in fun styles, but

that doesn’t help a consumer caught off

guard by a monsoon. Drug-store kingpin

Duane Reade (which is owned by Wal-

greens) is using technology to target such

real-time needs, testing a partnership

with personalized weather-forecast pro-

vider Poncho. After taking a survey about

their commute, morning and evening

routines and weather-related allergies,

subscribers receive twice-a-day weather

updates (via text or email) that include

Duane Reade coupons catered to the

day’s weather. For example, a seasonal-

allergy subscriber would get a warning

on high-pollen days as well as a discount

on Duane Reade’s allergy-relief products.

▶ Real-Time Payment: In another

example of Walmart catering to its base,

the big-box behemoth now offers a pay-

with-cash option. The program allows

consumers who do not have a credit or

debit card (or who would prefer not to

enter that information online) to order

products off the website and pay with

cash at the nearest Walmart location.

Clearly there’s a market: More than half

of Walmart’s online sales are pay-with-

cash purchases. As an extra bonus, the

service tends to increase the overall bas-

ket size, because customers often end up

buying impulse items when they pick up

their online order.

▶ Customized Coupons: CVS

Caremark pumps out tens of millions

of circulars each week. Though the mass

push continues, the company more recently

launched a digitized circular in which more

than 30 million customers receive unique

promotions based on their shopping habits.

And some channels can enter the

e-commerce world more seamlessly than

others, just as some channels are feeling

more e-commerce competition than oth-

ers. Though its impulse services seemingly

insulate the c-store channel from this bat-

tle, it’s important to watch how competing

channels are facing this challenge.

Grocery: A Sensory Advantage?Groceries aren’t exactly an impulse pur-

chase, but the fact is, most Americans

don’t plan their grocery trips in advance.

This—combined with the facts that gro-

ceries tend to be low-margin to begin with

(eliminating an online price advantage)

and consumers have been leery of pur-

chasing perishables sight unseen—has led

to an uphill battle for companies looking

to break into the online grocery business.

“Web-enabled grocery delivery is

now in at least generation three, and still

appears to be floundering,” says Michelle

Barry, president and CEO of Centric

Brand Anthropology, Seattle. “Some folks

are doing cool things but don’t appear to

be profitable.”

That said, some powerful players aren’t

giving up. With groceries accounting for

more than 50% of Walmart’s in-store

sales, the retailer recently tested a Denver

expansion of its online grocery business

(in which consumers order online and

pick up at local stores). Ninety percent of

customers gave the service an average-to-

outstanding rating, which could lead to

further expansion. Other grocery giants,

including Whole Foods, HyVee and

ShopRite, have also begun offering online

ordering in dense urban markets.

Perhaps more important for c-store

retailers is the fact that, as more con-

sumers look to purchase nonperishable

products through online retailers such as

Amazon, Hale predicts brick-and-mortar

grocers will have to shift focus to other

areas to make up that loss.

“I can see a day when supermarkets are

Amazonian GrowthWhen compared to brick-and-mortar retailers,Amazon is clearly leading the pack in annual sales growth.

Retailer 2013 global annual sales ($ billions) Year-over-year changeWalmart $22.0 5%

Kroger $6.4 7%

Amazon $13.0 27%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; company reports and websites

Page 7: E-Commerce Cover Story

44 C S P May 2014

going to see their center store shrink even

more because more people are going to

buy those products online,” he says, predict-

ing grocery stores will counter by further

expanding foodservice. “That’s going to be

competition for c-stores, long term.”

Drug: Succeeding in All SpacesSimilarly, many drug store retailers have

invested in fresh-food offerings in recent

years. However, with its core business in

nonperishable items, the drug channel

has also looked to compete with pure-

play e-commerce sites.

Besides building out their own robust

online stores, some retailers have looked

elsewhere to grow their Web business: Wal-

greens made a $409 million commitment to

e-commerce with its 2011 acquisition of the

online pharmacy Drugstore.com.

And then there’s the low-hanging

fruit: Walgreens, CVS, Rite Aid and other

leaders give customers the option of

refilling prescriptions online and get-

ting text alerts once said prescriptions are

ready for pickup.

Going After ConvenienceThe appeal of big-box (or hypermarket)

stores such as Sam’s Club, Costco or

Walmart has been the perception of a

one-stop shopping trip. Online retail-

ers have one-upped that convenience by

giving customers that one-stop shopping

trip without budging from their couch.

Is it any wonder that big-box retail-

ers aren’t just going after the susceptible

grocery business, but also the c-store’s

small-format impulse-driven model? In

an interesting turn, the biggest e-com-

merce threat to the c-store channel might

not come from sites such as Amazon but

from how hypermarkets are responding.

Though not necessarily a direct

response to e-commerce, big-box retailers

are going after those impulse dollars in at

least two ways:

▶ Fuel: This threat is nothing new. As

of July 2012, hypermarkets sold approxi-

mately 12.4% of U.S. motor fuels, accord-

ing to NACS. Selling roughly 275,000

gallons per month, these big-box sites

moved more than twice the volume of a

traditional c-store retailer. Whether this

fuel focus is a direct strategy to recoup

sales lost to e-commerce sites or merely

a way for hypermarkets to demonstrate

pricing value (because fuel prices are

broadcast on the street level), Hale antici-

pates it’s not going away, especially because

fuel will always be an in-person purchase.

“Club formats have had fuel in their

mix for some time and so has Walmart,

so I don’t see this changing,” he says. “Let’s

see where the Dollar General gasoline-

offering test goes.”

▶ Convenience-Sized: A focus on

providing consumers what they need—

or want—now is perhaps the c-store’s

greatest defense against the world of

e-commerce. With Walmart and Target

expanding their small-format, impulse-

driven locations, big-box retailers are

perhaps starting to recognize this oppor-

tunity. Besides its Express and Neighbor-

hood Market formats, Walmart now has

an actual convenience-store location. (See

p. 16 for more on the store.)

“Small box is where the (growth)

action is,” Hale says. C-stores and value

stores accounted for the vast majority of

new retail locations last year. “This is why

you see retailers like Walmart jumping

in. This is a c-store format with Walmart

prices, not something the c-store channel

has had to compete with.”

That said, plenty of retailers have not

turned their back on larger formats.

“Not all successful retailers have

bought into the notion that small for-

mats are the way to win,” says Hale, cit-

ing Boise, Idaho-based WinCo Foods

and Cincinnati-based Kroger. “WinCo is

sticking with the big-box value format,

and while Kroger continues to work with

a portfolio of formats, bigger formats

such as Kroger Marketplace are a greater

part of the new store mix today.”

Yet, as e-commerce continues to

expand, it’s something retailers big or

small will need to keep an eye on. Nielsen

forecasts e-commerce to grow at a com-

pounded annual rate of 11.7% per year

through 2018, nearly triple the projected

industry average of a 3.9% annual growth

rate. With this kind of disparity, it’s going

to affect all of us one way or another.

“Amazon and others have taught

us how easy and convenient it is to shop

online,” Hale says. “Broadband speed, as

well as enhanced online engagements and

devices, are only [further] driving use and

acceptance.”

The EvolutionBy Abbey Lewis

[email protected]

I’m a mother of two. William and Elea-

nor, 5 and 6, respectively, will never

know a world without instant gratifi-

cation. Want to rent a movie? Switch the

TV over to Netflix and let’s find something

to watch. Like that new Beyoncé record?

Bring up iTunes on your phone and buy

it; listen to the first few songs in the car on

the way home. Shoot—we’re out of milk.

And it’s raining. And we don’t want to go

outside because we have this great new

movie and a whole new album to listen to.

Let’s just go to Amazon and order some.

It’ll be here in time for dinner tonight.

OK, that last part is a bit of a stretch—

Page 8: E-Commerce Cover Story

C S P May 201446

for now. But as we’ve experienced, and as

we’ve hypothesized, is there anything that

Amazon, or any of the other e-commerce

behemoths and startups, can’t or won’t do?

The greater question is: How will

this affect our business? How will the

potential of same-day grocery delivery

or manufacturer-direct supply make a

mark on the convenience industry?

After all, the milkman once upon a

time was replaced by the dairy down

the street that decided to open a store to

sell milk, which eventually turned into

a chain of multibillion-dollar c-stores

and grocers. It only makes sense that we

ponder the effects of this retail evolution.

It’s just that I don’t believe we need to

worry all that much.

There are some things I don’t envision

going away. We still need gasoline. We still

need a quick cup of coffee and a pastry

or breakfast sandwich in the morning. I

still need the frozen slushie drinks for my

kids and ice cream novelties in the middle

of summer when the drive gets too long.

My granddad still needs to show proof of

age to get his cigars. (OK, he doesn’t.) But

certainly the neighbor boy across the street

would and should have to show his ID to

buy a pack of cigarettes. Sometimes, when

you run out of toilet paper, you need to

restock immediately. These are things you

can’t exactly do on your smartphone.

I talked to Scott Zaremba, owner and

operator of Zarco 66, Lawrence, Kan.,

just before he boarded a plane back home

from a trip. I agree with much of what he

had to say.

“I think Amazon is going to be a huge

competitor,” he says. “But it’s not going

to be against us. It’s going to be against all

the other big brick-and-mortar: grocers,

Walmart, Target.”

I had originally called to get an update

on at-the-pump sandwich-ordering tech-

nology he’s unveiling at one of his stores.

I thought someone with a mind that typi-

cally ranges outside the box would have an

idea of how best to compete with the most

technologically advanced big guys.

Turns out he doesn’t think we have to.

Rather, we have to evolve: “We are going

to have very defined locations with very

defined purposes. We may have to evolve

into larger locations. What model is going

to work right so we can get everything

everyone wants when they want it?”

Ah, yes. Instant gratification. C-stores

offer that, too. Our industry may not be

available at the touch of a button, but we

are in all 535 congressional districts and

we support the local Scouts and Little

Leagues that make up the fabric of our

communities.

And, albeit not our sweet spot, we can

get into the e-commerce game, too, hosting

drop boxes and payment centers for online

orders. There is a population of people that

are underbanked and may not be able to

pay for items online. We can be their point

B. And certainly all those delivery vehicles

are going to need to get from point A to

point B without running out of gasoline—

or diesel. We have fuel. We can evolve.

Of course, the deeper-pocketed big

boys—from Walmart to Target to Pub-

lix—are also evolving, at times to our

peril. So what do we do next?

“It’s the innovator’s dilemma,” says

David Bishop, managing partner of Bar-

rington, Ill.-based Balvor LLC. “The big,

established incumbents don’t see it as

an initial threat, and only respond when

they feel the initial impact. And by then

it’s too late.”

He’s referring, of course, to the

c-store’s response to an indefinite e-com-

merce threat. Bishop hypothesizes that

it’s not just that the c-store will evolve,

but that the c-store will have to evolve

because the big boys are devolving: “The

result [of e-commerce] could be the other

way around, with big box going to our

model with fuel and foodservice. What

will grocery do to convenience?”

As far as Walmart is concerned,

Bishop sees the threat in another way. It’s

not so much that the 800-pound gorilla is

bringing itself down to our size as much

as it is about the e-commerce piece. We’ve

officially come full circle.

“If we think about Walmart and their To

Go store concept, a lot of people think they’re

moving into convenience,” Bishop said.

Aren’t they? Let’s put our brains outside

that proverbial box again. What if you could

order your items at Walmart.com and go

to your nearest Walmart store to pick it

up? What if it had gas? Who’s winning the

instant gratification game now?

“If that [strategy] motivates a con-

sumer to go to a Walmart [To Go]

because they want to pick up their order,

the consequence is that Walmart could

pick up the motor fuel from c-stores, and

then c-stores would be in a very disad-

vantaged position,” Bishop says.

How will we adapt? Over the past

decade we have evolved, embracing more

sophisticated food offerings, innovative

technologies and a lock on the instant-

gratification experience.

As Bishop offers, “It’s up to the imagi-

nations of the marketers to determine

what’s next.

“We can do that.” n

Drones could just

be hype, something that

Amazon put out there

to be considered an

innovative company.”