DZUDMULTINATIONAL PLANNING

AUGMENTATION TEAM (MPAT) WORKSHOP

CHINGGIS KHAAN HOTEL

ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA

02 to 08 August, 2003

By Marshall SilverSenior Technical Advisor

UNDP Disaster Risk Reduction ProgramUlaanbaatar, Mongolia

The key points of Mongolian Geography:

Mongolian territory is relatively high in altitudeLike North Central Colorado, USA

Climate has a major impact on the duration of the growing season

Mongolia occupies a critical ecological / climatological transition & zone

The great Siberian taiga forest

The Central Asian steppe,

The Altai mountain range

The Gobi Desert

Mongolian Geography and Disasters

Mongolian word meaning severe winter conditions

Dzud is a Mongolia-specific winter disaster, which undermines the welfare and food security of the herding community through large-scale death and debilitation of livestock

What is DZUD?

Major Dzuds in the Last 60 years

Year

TotalLivestockat start of

Dzud

TotalLivestock

LossesComments

1944/45 24.3 million 8.6 millionPrior to large scale

collectivisation

1967/68 25.5 million 2.6 million

State collectivesprovided socialsecurity. Had

emergency statereserves of food &

fodder.

1999/00 33.5 million1.4 million to

end of Feb

Most deaths are yet tooccur. Old timers saythat this Dzud is moresevere than 44/45. Thisis the first to becombined with asummer drought.

Long Term Contributing Factors1990 Transition from Socialist Centrally Planned Economy

to Free Market System

• Livestock herds privatised. - Too many small, economically non viable herds created

• Limited support for private herders:– Limited veterinary services for animals - parasite loads increase

– Uncontrolled breeding. Quality of animals decline.

– Livestock levels grow and herd composition changes to environmentally unsustainable levels causing progressive depletion and degradation of pastures.

– No risk planning at any level of the system.

• Wells not maintained, break down Stock congregate in areas where there is water, further aggravating pasture

degradation.

The Cold Statistics – Year 2000 Dundgobi Aimag

• December 1989:– 1.4 million livestock

• December 1998: – Estimated livestock population: 2.2 million – 37 % growth on 1989

• December 1999 animal census: – 2.1 million remain

• February 2000: – 1.7 million livestock still alive

• June 2000: – An estimated 1.2 million will survive.

The Human Cost in the Townships Families Split

• Herding families leave behind in the soum townships the elderly to care for the school age children.

• They leave enough dried meat and milk products to last them through winter.

• This is supplemented by the meager pension to buy flour, soap and other essentials.

• Due to government cash flow problems, Pension payments are often delayed.

Grandmother caring for school age children in the aimag centre. She is waiting for her pension.

The Human Cost in the Schools

• Children miss school because they lack transport or because they have to care for animals

• Parents have no money to buy stationery• Overcrowding of school dormitories.• Students can’t concentrate because they are worried

about their parents and their herds.• Schools have lost their own herds of animals.• Teachers have lost their animals.

The school dormitory was built for 80 - it now accommodates 145. Washrooms, like this one, have been converted into bedrooms. Even so, children have to sleep two to a bed.

Because of the overcrowding, these two brothers share this single bed. They couldn’t join their parents for Tsagaan Sar, because they have taken the animals too far away. They spent the holiday in the school dormitory.

The Human Cost in the Countryside

• Most of the cows die.• Most of the horses disappear. Some will

return, but most have died.• Sheep and goats are dying. They will die in

large numbers when the lambing season begins.• People spend many hours in the bitter cold

searching for missing livestock.• Without transport, people cannot access health

services.

The most vulnerable stay put, hoping for the best. Those with many young children and those who lack transport.

Before the Dzud, this family had 300 sheep and goats. Now they have 70. These sheep are too weak to stand. They will be dead by the end of the week.

With her last two bales of hay she tries to feed the few remaining stock

Her daughter tries to get a goat on its feet. It is too weak to stand unaided.

This family is lucky. They still have two horses and a cow. Note the horses’ short tails. The cow is so hungry it nibbles their tails.

The one remaining cow from a herd of twenty.

“When the animals die, we comb out the cashmere andskin them. We don’t get much for the skins. They are poor quality because the animals are so wasted.”

“The sheep are now dying so rapidly we can’t keep up”

“We thought the shelter would protect them.”

A safe haven.

“My baby is two months old, and I don’t have enough breast milk to feed her. Normally I would give her goat’s milk, but now we have no goats . . . “

. . or cows . . .

. . . but we still have a horse”.

Most of the horses disappeared. Some may return, but many have died. This one perished beside a frozen, broken well.

“Most of the cows are dead . . . “

. . . and removing carcasses from around the soum is hard work”

IMMEDIATE NEEDS - LIVESTOCK• From the Mongolian perspective, saving the remaining livestock

is the priority• Fortified animal feed to save as many as possible of the

healthiest livestock which still survive• It must reach the affected areas by the middle of March for it to

have any impact – If it is delayed beyond that, it will be too late. The animals will be

already dead.

• Feeding must be targeted to the strongest animals with the best chance of survival

• Feeding must be combined with veterinary inspection AND treatment

From a Mongolian perspective, saving the remaining animals is the priority. Some hay and fodder can get through, but the quantities need to be large to have any impact.

LONG TERM NEEDS - LIVESTOCK

• Selective subsidised restocking as far as possible over summer– If possible with older animals

NOTE: There are many constraints to restocking. For example, animals must be adapted to the areas they are moved to.

• Improve access to water supply by repairing old wells and building new ones– In an ecologically responsible manner

• Improve veterinary services• Strengthen supplementary feeding strategies, risk

management, and supplementary feed production• Develop an insurance system for the livestock sector

IMMEDIATE NEEDS - PEOPLE

• People begin to run out of food about the end of April– Widespread food aid will be required to prevent starvation– Food assistance will need to continue at least through next winter,

possibly longer• Urgent expert nutritional assessment to determine total food

requirements including essential micronutrient supplementation (vitamins, iron, iodine)– Special attention must be given to those who are especially

vulnerable such as pregnant & lactating women, young children, and the elderly

• Ensure access by displaced families to medical services• Ensure supply of essential medicines (especially antibiotics) for

treating respiratory tract infections

LONG TERM NEEDS - PEOPLE

• Food aid will need to extend through winter

– At least for the most vulnerable families in Dzud affected regions

• Assess fuel requirements for cooking and heating for next winter

• Assess clothing and footwear requirements for next winter

• Ensure supply of essential medicines and equipment at rural health services

• Assess impact of the Dzud on the education of children

• Assist Government to monitor and evaluate the health and social impacts of the Dzud on the people in affected regions

IMMEDIATE NEEDS - LOGISTICS• Government to establish principles and criteria for the distribution of

aid, and to make these public at all levels• Provide aid to households according to individual need and current

location, rather than on aimag of origin• Develop coordination mechanism among Government, Donors, NGOs

to share information on the development of the emergency and the delivery of aid

• Strengthen capacity of General Department for Disaster Protection, State Emergency Commission, and Ministries to monitor developments and to better target relief operations

• Organise joint procurement to maximise the efficiency of aid delivery• Government to review its delivery mechanism to maximise its

timeliness and transparency

LONG TERM NEEDS - LOGISTICS

• Establish e-mail network between UB and aimag centers to speed the transmission of information

• Assist Government Agencies to develop surveillance and “early warning systems”

• Develop Government capacity to analyse statistical data and incorporate the information in government policies