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‘Dynamically simulated tropic storms in a changing climate and their impact on the
assessment of future climate risk’ - PhD project
Ray BellSupervisors – Prof. Pier Luigi Vidale, Dr. Jane
Strachan and Dr. Kevin Hodges
• MOcean (Hons) – NOCS.Dissertation – Wind and wavevariability in re-analysis andsatellite measurements
• Met office placement 2010Waves team – wave ensemble system
About me
• Impacts on the climate system, removing heat and moisture from the ocean affecting large scale circulation
• Socio-economic impacts• Associated risk with climate change
Katrina 2005.Current damage $91.5bn(ICAT, 2011)
Motivation
• Does dynamically simulated TC activity (location, frequency, intensity, structure and energetics) change in model simulations including anthropogenic forcing?
• Will the predictability of TC variability based on natural climate variability of large scale atmospheric modes break down under anthropogenic climate change?
PhD outline
• HiGEM (N144, 1/3o ocean) - Higher resolution can resolve TCs better, important for intensity (Bengtsson et al, 2007)
• TRACK (Hodges) to indentify and track TCs
• Compare TCs in the transient run to the control run
PhD project
• Natural variability vs. Climate change (Webster et al, 2005; Pielke et al, 2005)
• Consensus on decreasing frequency globally (McDonald et al, 2005; Yamada et al, 2010) however contrasting regional changes
• Possible stronger winds (Bengtsson et al, 2007)
Increasing GCM resolution...• Increase in rainfall (Knutson et al, 2010)
Previous studies
• MSc modules (>50% of my time)• Reading lists – Structure and dynamics, natural
variability, climate change
• Tracking HiGAM data (developing TRACK, Linux and IDL skills)
Work done so far
HiGAM 1979 Min mslp
Typhoon track
• Reading – Natural variability, climate change• 1st chapter finished by October
• TRACK stats
• Tracking the HiGEM transient runs – compare to control runs and re-analysis/obs (Jane)
• CMIP5 data?• Air-sea interaction?
Future work
Collaborations
Username: metofficePassword: metoffice_tc
www.met.reading.ac.uk/~df019697
ReferencesBengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Esch, M. (2007). Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution
global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analysis. Tellus A, 59, 396–416.
Knutson, T. R., McBridge, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J. P., Srivastava, A. K., and Sugi, M. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci., 3, 157–163.
McDonald, R., Bleaken, D., Creswell, D., Pop e, V., and Senior, C. (2005). Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impacts of climate change. J. Climate, 18, 1275–1262.
Pielke, R. A. J., Landsea, C., Mayfield, M., Laver, J., and Pasch, R. (2005). Hurricanes and global warming. Bul l. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1571–1575.
Webster, P., Holland, G., Curry, J., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844–1846.
Questions ???