Dynamical Downscaling of surface wind circulations in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula Pedro...
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Transcript of Dynamical Downscaling of surface wind circulations in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula Pedro...
Dynamical Downscaling of surface wind circulations in the Northeast of the
Iberian Peninsula
Pedro A. Jiménez (UCM-CIEMAT)J. Fidel González-Rouco (UCM)
Juan P. Montávez (UM)Elena García-Bustamante (UCM-CIEMAT)
J. Navarro (CIEMAT)
1.- Regional VS local evaluation2.- Wind variability: Regionalization Group together those observational sites
with similar temporal variability3.- Dynamical downscaling 3.1.- Evaluation
3.2.- Inference analysis
Outline
Motivation:
- Analyze the surface wind variability in a complex terrain region
- Evaluate the capability of a dynamical downscaling to
reproduce it
1.- Regional VS local evaluation
The present evaluation uses the Reid and Turner concept of regional evaluation to analyze the accuracy of a dynamical downscaling in reproducing the surface wind variability.
The evaluation of numerical simulations usually compares observations and simulations at the nearest grid point
Cox et al.
1998Hanna and Yang
2001Buckley 2004
Reid and Turner
2001
Problematic: 1.- Local effects in observations 2.- Representativeness errors in simulations
Observational dataWind speed and wind directionFrom 1992 to 200510 minutes resolution10 above ground levelQuality control
Ebro
valley
PyreneesCantabrian
mountains
Iberian
System
Daily averages
Ebro valley
(Broad valley)
2.- Regionalization
Jimenez et al., JAMC; 47,
2008
Methodology:Rotation of the EOF
Northern valleys(Narrow valleys)
Mountain stations
North-to-south oriented stations
3.- Dynamical downscaling
Initial and boundary conditions every 6 hours form the ERA-40 reanalysis
WRF 2.1.2
The whole observational period (1992 to 2005) is simulated at at high horizontal resolution of 2km over the area of study.
Local VS Regional
Ebro valley
(Broad valley)
3.1.- Evaluation
Jimenez et al., JAMC
(submitted)
Observations
Mountain subregion
Regionalization obtained with the spatially masked simulation
3.1.- Evaluation: Regionalization in WRF
Simulation
No
rmal
ized
sp
ectr
al
den
sity
3.2.- Inference analysis: Regionalization obtained with the complete simulation
Conclusions
1.- The regional evaluation seems to provide a more appropriate framework than the traditional comparison with the nearest simulated grid point.
2.- The WRF dynamical downscaling is able to reproduce areas of coherent wind variability.
3.- The simulation can be extended to analyze the wind variability before 1992.
Canonical series 1
Corr.: 0.87
Statistical downscalingStatistical downscaling
Canonical Correlation Analysis: optimal linear
association between large scale circulation and local
wind field
Validation and methodology sensitivity
zonal wind component
Wind climatology reconstruction
Kalnay et al., Bu. Amer. Met. Soc, 21; 1996 Kallberg et al., Rep. Seri. 17, ECMWF; 2004
Luterbacher et al., Cli. Dy., 18; 2002
ERA-40 VS WRF