Duplict. a Study on Performance Evaluation of Icici and Sbi Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis...

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PROJECT REPORT

A STUDY ON PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF ICICI AND

SBI USING FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the degree of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

OF

AMITY GLOBAL BUSINESS SCHOOL

Submitted by

KARTHIGAINATHAN.A

Reg. No. 91005631030

Under Guidance of Mr.M.SIVA KUMARM.B.A.,M.Phil.,

Lecturer

Department of Management Studies

P.S.N.A. COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY

DINDIGUL-624 622, TAMILNADU

JULY-2007

Department of management studies

P.S.N.A. College of engineering & technologyDindigul-624 622, Tamilnadu.

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This is certify that is a bonafide record of summer project

By

A.KARTHIGAINATHAN

Reg.no.91005631030

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of degree of the

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

OF

ANNAUNIVERSITY, CHENNAI

Place: Dindigul

Date : HOD

Department of management

Studies

Signature of

Faculty Guide:

Examiner:

CERTIFICATE

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I hereby certify that the project (BA1770) report submitted to the Anna University in

partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the degree of Master of business

administration is based on project undertaken by A.KARTHIGAINATHAN under my guidance.

Name of the Guide

Mr.M.SIVA KUMAR MBA,M.Phil.,LecturerDepartment of Management Studies,P.S.N.A. College of Engineering& Technology,Dindigul-624 622,Tamilnadu.

Place: DindigulDate :

DECLARATION BY STUDENT

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I A.KARTHIGAINATHAN the undersigned hereby declare that this summer project

titled A STUDY ON PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF ICICI AND SBI USING

FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is submitted in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for the award ofMaster of business administration, Anna University, Chennai.

Place: Dindigul A.KARTHIGAINATHANDate : Reg.no:91005631030

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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My very special gratitude and heart felt thanks to our beloved Chairperson, for her

blessings and best wishes to carry out my project work.

I would like to express my deep gratitude to our Director and principle

Dr.K.Thyagarajah who is responsible for moulding our thinking to complete this project.

It is my great pleasure to express my sincere gratitude and thanks to my heads of the

department Dr. M. Renganathan, for his valuable guidance and help.

I am extremely thankful to my project guide Mr.M.Siva Kumar, MBA.,M.Phil.,

Department of management studies for imitating keen interest and giving valuable guidance at

every stage of this project.

I wish to express my sincere thanks to the company guide Mr.S.Anand, Investment

Advisor, Kotak Securities, Madurai, who is my external guide for his kind support and guidance

to complete my project.

I wish to express my sincere thanks to Mr.Madhavan, Professor, Manonmaniam

Sundharanar University, Thirunelveli, who is my external guide for his kind support and

guidance to complete my project.

I am also thankful to all the faculty members of the Department of management studies

for their kind and valuable cooperation during the course of the project. I would also like to thank

my parents, Friends and well wishers who encourage me to complete this project successfully.

Date: Signature of the

Candidate

(A.KARTHIGAINATHAN)

Sl.

No.Title Page

No

1. Chapter 1

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2. 1.1 Introduction 1

3. 1.2 Company Profile 2

4. 1.3 Product Profile 3

5. 1.3.1 The Industry Growth 4

6. 1.3.2 Background 47. 1.3.3. Management 5

8. 1.3.4 Shareholding & Liquidity 5

9. 1.3.5 Key area of Operation 6

10. 1.3.6 Strategy & New Developments 8

11. 1.3.7 ICICI Profile 8

12. Chapter 213. 2.1 Scope of the study 11

14. 2.2 Objective of the study 11

15. 2.3 Period of the study 11

16. 2.4 Limitation of the study 1117. 2.5 Methodology 12

18. 2.6 Fundamental analysis 13

19. 2.6.1 Economical analysis 13

20. 2.6.2 Industrial analysis 21

21. 2.6.3 Banking Industrial analysis 22

22. 2.7 Monitory Policy 22

23. 2.8 CRR 23

24. 2.9 Liquidity Management 26

25. 2.10 Indian Financial Sector SWOT analysis 27

26. 2.11 Budget 2007 -2008 overview 2927. 2.12 Secure Banking 34

28. 2.13 Key Ratio 35

29. 2.13.1 Interpretation (SBI) 35

30. 2.13.2 Interpretation (ICICI) 36

31. Chapter 332. 3.1 Technical analysis 39

33. 3.1.a ICICI Bank Outlook 39

34. 3.1.b SBIN Outlook 40

35. 3.2 Finding 41

36. 3.3 Suggestion 4237. 3.3.1 ICICI Bank 42

38. 3.3.2 SBI Bank 43

39. 3.4 Conclusion 46

40. 3.5 Bibliography 47

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CHAPTER 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION

With the economy surging, things are getting better in the Banking Industry. There are

plenty of changes occurs daily.

According to Reserve bank of Indias banking review of 2004 2005 there was a notable

pick up in demand from industry for investments and a surge in exports. Evidently, the industrys

focus now is on scaling up both domestically and in markets abroad, widening the product and

services port folio, and better using technology to make banking more accessible and efficient.

Most of researchers conclusion is, Whether or not the sectors actually opens up in 2009,

banks should use that as an opportunity to get their growth strategies in place. Not Just through

organic growth, but growth through mergers and acquisition. What India need is not a large

number of small banks, but a small number of large banks.

As the RBIs deputy Governor, V.Leeladhar, said at Indian Banking Associations Jan 31

Seminar on Indian Banks and the Global change there is growing realization that the ability to

cope with possible downside risks would depend among others on the soundness of the financial

system and the strength of Individual participation.

India is still cagey about foreign investments in banks. Though a dramatic changes

sweeping through the industry for some years now in the rise of Indias Public sector bank and

private sector still it should fuel its grow to open up eyes towards open market.

In this scenario, While we look at the sensex breach the 10,000 level for the first time it

was yet another sign the India as a market for global liquidity had arrived. When, We start co-

relating the Gross Domestic product (GDP) growth of emerging markets are supposed to reflect

the health of the economy where India emerges as a key player, India is arguably the best placed

amongst the entire emerging market lot.

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Form the Investors point of view earning growth, price-earning multiplies and of course

the performance of the economy matters.

1.2 COMPANY PROFILE

State Bank of India is the largest and one of the oldest commercial bank in India,in existence for more than 200 years. It is a publicly owned largest bank in Indiawith over Rs.16 trillion business spread over 99345 domestic and 173 foreign

offices. The Bank deals in all types of banking products and financial serviceswhich offers almost all financial products to all customer segments from

Government or large Corporations to a landless labourer. The bankprovides abusiness ranges from a small micro credit to large infrastructure funding

running into billions. The activities cover most areas of finance, from the plain

vanilla commercial banking accepting deposits and lending to investment

banking, private equity (PE), pension fund management, wealth advisory, and

insurance. Customers from every segment of the Indian society bank with and

they have separate verticals to take care of the needs of various segments like

Corporate (Corporate Accounts Group), Mid Corporate (Mid CorporateGroup), Rural Business (Rural Business Group), Individuals (Personal

Banking Business Unit), Cross Country Business (International Banking

Group)etc.. Indian central bank namely Reserve Bank ofIndia (RBI) is themajor share holder of the bank with 62.0% stake. The bank is capitalized to theextent of Rs.646bn with the public holding (other than promoters) at 40.3%. SBIhas the largest branch and ATM network spread across every corner of India. The

bank has a branch network of over15,000 branches (including subsidiaries) and25000th ATMs. The Annual turnover of the company as of March 2011 is Rs.

147843.92 crores with Deposits - Rs. 933932.81 crores and Advances - Rs.756719.45 crores. Major markets (local, regional, national, or

international).The Bank has correspondent relationship with all majorinternational banks in the world besides tie up for its joint Ventures.

The bank had total staff strength of2, 22,933 as on 31st March, 2011.Ofthis,79,728 i.e. 35.77% are officers, 1, 02,701 i.e. 46.07% clerical staff andthe remaining 40,504 i.e. 18.16% were sub-staff. The bank is listed on the BombayStock Exchange, National Stock Exchange, Kolkata Stock Exchange, ChennaiStock Exchange and Ahmedabad Stock Exchange while its GDRs are listed on theLondon Stock Exchange. SBI group accounts for around 25% of the total businessof the banking industry while it accounts for35% of the total foreign exchange inIndia. With this type of strong base, SBI has displayed a continued performance inthe last few years in scaling up its efficiency levels. Net Interest Income of the bank

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has witnessed a CAGR of13.3% during the last five years. The net interestmargin (NIM) of the bank has gone up to 3.5% this fiscal.

1.3.1 THE INDUSTRY GROWTH

The industry growth during the same period was around 28%

The banks asset quality has improved over the past few years. Gross NPL of gross

loans stood at 3.57% as of Sep-end 2006 while net NPLs stood at 1.67% The bank has

provided for 54.06% of its NPLs as on Sep- end 2006, which is below the industry

average of around 68%

Total deposits of the bank grew at a CAGR of 94% over the last. ve years to reach

Rs3,800.5bn, with low cost deposits registering an impressive GAGR of 15.4% during

the same period. Contribution of low cost deposit to total deposit during the period too

has moved up sharply from 36.3% in FY 01 to over 47.6% in FY06. However,

currentand saving account (CASA ) contribution in HIFY07 has declined to 43.65%

thereby, signi.cantly increasing cost of funds and hensce margin contraction. On a

sequential basis, margins of the bank declined by 8bps to 3.32

The capital adepuacy ratio of the bank stood at 12.63% (Tier I of 8.74% and Tier II

of 3.89 %) at the end of HIFY07. To augment its CAR to provide a stable platform for

further growth, the bank the plans to raise upto Rs.100bn as subordinate debt during

the next few months. The bank also has cushion to raise RS40bn in the form of hybrid.

1.3.2 BACKGROUND

State Bank of India is the largest and one of the oldest commercial bank in India, in

existenxe for more than 200 years. The bank provides a full range of corporate, commercial

and retail banking services in India. Indian central bank namely Reserve Bank of India (RBI)

is the major share holder of the bank with 59.7% stake. The bank is capitalized to the extend

of Rs.646bn with the public holding (other than promoters) at 40.3%.

SBI has the largest branch and ATM network of over 14,000 branches (including

subsidiaries) Apart form Indian network it also has a network of 73 overses of. ces in 30

countries in all time zones, correspondent relationship with 520 International banks in 123

countries. In recent past,

SBI has acquired banks in Mauritius, Kenya and Indonesia. The bank had total staff

strength of 198,774 as on 31 st March, 2006. Of this, 29.51% are of.cers, 45.19% clerical staff

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and the remaining 25.30% were sub-staff. The bank is listed on the Bombay stock Exchange,

Kolkata stock Exchange, Chennai Stock Exchange and Ahmedaoad stockeExchange while its

GDRs are listed on the London stock Exchange.

SBI group accounts for around 25% of the total business of the banking industry while it

accounts for 35% of the total foreign exchange in India. With this type of strong base, SBI has

displayed a continued performance in the last few years in scaling up its ef. ciencly levels. Net

Interest Income of the bank has witnessed a CAGR of 13.3% during the last years. During the

same period, net interest margin (NIM) of the bank has gone up from as low as as2.9% in

FY02 to 3.40% in FY06 and currently is at 3.32%

1.3.3 MANAGEMENT

The bank has 14 directors on the Board and is responsible for the management of the

banks business. The board in addition to monitoring corporate performance also carries out

functions such as approving the business plan, reviewing and approving the annual budgets

and borrowing limits and axing exposure limits. Mr.O.P.Bhatt is the Chairman of the bank.

Prior to this appointment, Mr.Bhatt was Managing Director at State Bank of Travancore

Mr.T.S. Bhattacharya is the managing Director of the bank and known for hisvast experience

in the banking industry. Recently, the senior management of the bank has been broadened

considerably. The Positions of CFO and the head of treasury have been segregated, and new

heads for rural banking and for corporate development and new business banking have been

appointed. The managements thrust on growth of the bank in terms of network and size

would also ensure encouraging prospects in time to come.

1.3.4 SHAREHOLDING & LIQUIDITY

Reserve Bank of India is the largest shareholder in the bank with 59.7% stake followed by

overseas investors including GDRs with 19.78% stake as on September 06. Indian financial

institutions held 12.3% while Indian public held Just 8.2% of the stock. RBI is the monetary

authority and having majority shareholding re.ects con.ict of interest. Now the government is

rectifying the above error by transferring RBIs holding to inself. Post this, SBI will have

afurther headroom to dilute the GOls stake from 59.7% to 51.0% Which will further improve

its CAR and Tier I ratio.

Shareholding Pattern of the Bank as on 30th September 2006

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Source : SBI

As of Sep 2006, SBI the 526.3 mm shares outstanding and going by the actual trading

volume, the Stocks liquidity seems to have decreased in the past two years. In the first half of

FY2007, 93mm shares exchanged hasnds. The daily share turnover during the year 2006 was

0.22% down from 0.39% witnessed in 2005. But the sentiment in the sock market improved in

the first six months of the current. Scale with the bank clocking further gains. as of January

12,2007 banks market capitalization stood at Rs.643.6bn.

1.3.5 KEY AREAS OF OPERATIONS

The business operations of SBI can be broadly classed into the key income generating

areas such as National Banking, International Banking, Corporate Banking, & Treasury

operations.

Key Business Areas of the Bank

a) Corporate Banking

The corporate banking segment of the bank has total business of around Rs.1,93bn. SBI

has created various Strategic Business Units (SBU) in order to streamline its operations.

a. Leasing

b. Project Finance

c. Mid Corporate Group

b. National Banking

The national banking group has 14 administrative circles encompassing a vast network

of 9,177 branches, 4 Sub-of.ces, 12 exchange bureaus, 104 satellite of.ces and 679

extension counters, to reach out to customers, even it. the remotest corners of the

country. Out of the total branches, 809 are specialized branches. This group consists of

four business group which are enumerated below:

b.1. Personal Banking SBU

b.2. Small & Medium Enterprises

b.3. Agricultural Banking

c. International Banking

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SBI has a network of 73 overseas of.ces in 30 countries in all time zones and

correspondent relationship with 520 international banks in 123 countries. The bank is

keen to implement core banking solution to its international branches also. During

FY06, 25 foreign offices were successfully switched over to Finacle software. SBI has

installed ATMs at Male Muscat and Colombo of.ces. In recent years. SBI has installed

ATMs at Male, Muscat and Colombo Of.cex. In recent years, SBI acquired 76%

shareholding in Giro Commercial Bank Limited in Kenya and PT Indomonex Bank

Ltd. In Indonesia. The bank incorporated a company SBI Botswana Lte. at Gaborone.

d. Treasury

The bank manages an integrated treasury covering both domestic and foreign exchangemarkets. In recent years, the treasury operation of the bank has become more active

amidst rising interest rate scenario, robust credit growth and liquidity constraints. The

bank diversified it operations more actively into alternative revenue streams in order to

offset the losses in.xed income portfolio.

Reorganisation of the treasury processes at domestic and global levels is also being

undertaken to leverage on the operational synergy between business units and network,

The reoganization seeks to enhance the efficiencies in use of manpower resources anincrease maneuverability of banks operations in the markets both domestic as well as

international.

e. Associates & Subsidiaries

The State Bank Group with a network of 14,061 branches including 4,755 branches of

its seven Associate Banks dominates the banking industry in India. In addition to

banking, the Group, through its various subsidiaries, provides a whole range of

financial services which includes life Insurance, Merchant Banking, Mutual Funds,

Credit card, Factoring, Security trading and primary dealership in the Money Market.

e.1. Associates Banks

e.2. Non Banking Subsidiaries/ Joint Ventures

i. SBI life

ii. SBI Capital Markets Limited (SBICAP)

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iii. SBI DFHI LTD

iv. SBI Cards & Payments Services Pvt.Ltd. (SBICSPL)

v. SBI Funds Management (P) Ltd. (SBIFMPL)_

f. Human Resources

1.3.6 STRATEGY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

Though a publis sector bank, it has set in motion a series of steps to transform itself into a

modern, technology enabled customer-centric, world-class banking organiztation, meeting best

global practices and standards in bankings and service delivery. The bank has maintained its

record of profitability, while adjusting to the changing circumstances and interest rate

environment. Despite intense competition and pressure on spreads it has maintained and Improved

its NIM. Major innovations and initiatives are in the arena of technology, banking products and

processes, service delivery channels and human resource to efficiently serve bank customers

across the globe The bank maintains its drive on the technology front to enhance customer

service, increase productivity, and manage risk better. After having computerized all its branches,

it has been moving swiftly to implement real time on-line banking. As a part of its strategy to stay

ahead of the competition, SBI had increased its benchmark lending rates by 50 basis points to

11.5 percent; this lending rate increase is dure to the rising cost of funds for banks, which are

paying more for deposits as a way of encouraging investors to save.

1.3.7 ICICI BANK PROFILE

ICICI Bank is Indias second-largest bank. It has a network of about 614 branches and

extension counters and over 2,200 ATMs. ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products

and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and

through its specialized subsidiaries and affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-

life insurance, venture capital and asset management. ICICI Bank set up its international banking

group in fiscal 2002 to cater to the cross border needs of clients and leverage on its domestic

banking strengths to offer products internationally.

ICICI Bank currently has subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, Russia and Canada,

branches in Singapore, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka and Dubai International Finance Centre

and representative offices in the United States, United Arab Emirates, China, South Africa and

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Bangladesh. Our UK Subsidiary has established a branch in Belgium. ICICI Bank is the most

valuable bank in India in terms of market capitalization.

ICICI Banks equity shares are listed in India on the Bombay stock Exchange and the

National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its

American Depositary Receipts ((ADRs) are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

ICICI Bank has formulated a Code of Business Conduct and Ethics for its directors and

employees.

At June 5, ICICI Bank, with free float market capitalization* of about Rs. 480.00

billion ranked third amongst all the companies listed on the Indian Stock exchanges.

ICICI Bank was originally promoted in 1994 by ICICI Limited, an Indian financial

institution, and was its wholly-owned subsidiary. ICICIs shareholding in ICICI Bank was

reduced to 46% through a public offering of shares in Indian fiscal 1998, an equity offering in the

form of ADRs listed on the NYSE in fiscal 2000, ICICI Banks acquisition of Bank of Madura

Limited in all-stock, amalgamation in fiscal 2001, and secondary market sales by ICICI to

institutional investors in fiscal 2001 and fiscal 2002.

ICICI was formed in 1955 at the initiative of the World Bank, the Government of India

and representatives of Indian industry. The principal objective was to create a development

financial institution for providing medium-term and long-term project financing to Indian

businesses. In the 1990s, ICICI transformed its business from a development financial institution

offering only project finance to a diversified financial services group offering a wide variety of

products and services, both directly and through a number of subsidiaries an affiliates like ICICI

Bank. In 1999, ICICI become the first Indian company and the first bank or financial institution,

from non-Japan Asia to be listed on the NYSE.

After consideration of various corporate structuring alternatives in the context of the

emerging competitive scenario in the Indian banking industry, and the move towards universal

banking, the managements of ICII and ICICI Bank formed the view that the merger of ICICI with

ICICI Bank would be the optimal strategic alternative for both entities, and would create the

optimal legal structure for the ICICI groups universal banking strategy.

The merger would enhance value for ICICI shareholders through the merged entittys

access to low-cost deposits, greater opportunities for earning fee-based income and the ability to

participate in the payments system and provide transaction-banking services. The merger would

enhance value for ICICI Bank shareholders through a large capital base and scale of operations,

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seamless access to ICICIs strong corporate relationships built up over five decades, entry into

new business segments, hither market share in various business segments, particularly fee-based

services, and access to the vast talent pool of ICICI hand its subsidiaries. In October 2001, the

Boards of Directors of ICICI and ICICI Bank approved the merger of ICICI Personal Financial

Services Limited and ICICI Capital Services Limited, with ICICI Bank

The merger was approved by shareholders of ICICI and ICICI Bank in January 2002, and

by the High Court of Judicature at Mumbai and the Reserve Bank of India in April 2002.

Consequent to the merger, the ICICI groups financing and banking operations, both wholesale

and retail, have been integrated in a single entity.

*Free float holding excludes all promoter holdings, strategic investments and crossholdings among public sector entities. ICICI Bank disseminates information on its operation and

initiatives on a regular basis. The ICICI Bank website serves as a key investor awareness facility,

a lowing stake holders to access information on ICICI Bank at their convenience. ICICI Banks

dedicated investor relations personal play a proactive role in disseminating information to both

analysts and investors and respond to specific queries.

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CHAPTER 2

2.1 SCOPE OF THE STUDY :

The project entitled A Study on the performance evaluation of SBI and ICICI based and

fundamental and technical analysis will enable from the investors point of view to refer the

performance of the Banks, their relative growth and thereby decide on to buy or sell the particular

slab. This study will also help to identify the bank that is lagging behind in its performane.

2.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:

PRIMERY OBJECTIVE

To analyse the various factors which influence the share price of SBI and ICICI bank

SECONDREY OBJECTIVE

To analyze the market value of SBI and ICICI bank

To offer suggestions and recommendations based on the findings.

To study the performance of ICICI and SBI

2.3 PERIOD OF THE STUDY:

For the purpose of the study 5 years period starting from the financial year mar 2002 to

march 2006 in considered. The year 2005-2006 is chosen as a terminal year since only upto this

period reliable time series data were available for the variables dealt in the study.

2.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:

This study is based on the secondary data collected form the kotak securities. com no other

efforts have been made to verify their correctness.

Due to paucity of time important factors has been analysed and discussed.

The approach to behavior of share price is based on long time view.

There limitations do not undermine either the scope of the study on the analysis and

inference.

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2.5 METHODOLOGY

DATA COLLECTION

Secondary data:

All secondary data has been collected from the kotak securities. The required information

are also collected form respective bulletins of RBI, website of government of India, website of

stockcharts.com, Global research study is also adhered.

Analysis Overlook:

Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are taken into consideration.

Ration analysis

The ratio analysis expresses the relationship of the financial ratios in percentages which

are collected form the Balance sheet and profit and loss account.

The key ratios considered of SBI and ICICI Bank considered includes

1. Investment/deposit (%)

2. Cash / deposit (%)

3. Interest expended / interest earned (%)

4. Other income / total income (%)

5. Operating expenses / total income (%)

6. Interest income / total funds (%)

7. Interest expended / total funds (%)

8. Net interest income / total funds (%)

9. Non interest income / total funds (%)

10. Operating expenses / total funds (%)

11. Profit before provision / total funds (%)

12. Net profit / total funds (%)

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Technical Analysis

It is the process of identifying trend reversal at an earlier stage to formulate the buying and

selling strategy. With the help of several indicators they analysis the relationship between price

volume and supply-demand for the overall market and the individual stock. Volume is favorable

on the upswing, the number of shares traded is greater than before and on the downside the

number of shares traded dwindles. If it is the other way round, trend reversals can be expected.

2.6 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

Fundamental analysis is the study of economic factor industrial environment and

the factor related to the company. This chapter of fundamental analysis consists of

Economic analysis

Banking industry analysis

Profile of SBI

Profile of ICICI

Ratio analysis of SBI

Ratio analysis of ICICI

Economic analysis with favorable GDP with savings, investment, stable prices, balance of

payment, and infrastructure facilities which provides a best environment for common stock

investment

Industrial analysis growth follow a pattern. This replicates the banking industry monitory policy,

CPR, SLR, and the flow of the industry.

Company analysis explains of the profile of SBI and ICICI bank and then deals with the ratio

analysis of both the banks

2.6.1 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

The level of economy has an impact on investment in many ways. If the economicgrowth rapidly, the industry can also be expected to show rapid growth and vice versa. When the

level of economic activity is low, stock price are low, and when the level of economic activity is

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high, the stock price are high reflecting the prosperous outlook for sales and profit of the firms.

Vigorous growth with strong macroeconomic fundamentals has characterized developments in the

Indian economy in 2006-2007 so far. However, there are some genuine concerns on the inflation

front. Growth of 9.0% and 9.2% in2005-2006 and 2006-2007 shows a positive sign, the surging

pattern in agriculture continued with growth estimated at 6.0% and 2.7% in the two resent year,

and services maintained on the industrial segment. The higher growth trends, particularly in

manufacturing boosted sentiments with in the country and abroad. The overall macro economic

fundamentals are robust, particularly with tangible progress towards fiscal consolidation and a

strong balance of payment position. With an up surge in investment, the outlook is distinctly up

beat.

The ratcheting up of growth observed in recent years in reflected in the eleventh five year target

of an average annual growth of 9.0% relative to 8.0% targeted by the tenth plan (2002-2003 to

2006-2007). Services contributed as much as 68.6% of the overall average growth in GDP in the

last five years. The entire residual contribution came from industry. As a result, in 2006-2007,

while the share of agriculture in GDP decline to 18.5%, the share of industry and service

improved to 26.4% and 55.1%, respectively.

SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT

The gross domestic savings as a proportion of GDP shows an increasing trend with the

saving ration rising from 26.4 per cent in 2002-03 to 29.7 per cent in 2003-04, 31.1 per cent in

2004-05 and 32.4 percent in 2005 06. The rise in the savings rate in 2005-06 was due to private

corporate and the household sector, which as proportion of GDP, increased by 1.0 percentage

point and 0.7 percentage points, and made a negative contribution to the overall saving rate.

However, a redeeming feature of recent years is that the savings of the public sector, which had

been negative until 2002-03, was positive for the third successive year in 2005-06. The positive

saving of Rs. 71,262 crore in 2005-06 (QE) is largely attributable to the higher savings of non-

departmental as well as departmental enterprises. The Indian economy has shown a sharp rise in

the savings rate of the private corporate sector for tour years. The savings rate for 2005-06, as per

the quick estimates, has been placed at 8.1 per cent. The private corporate sector has financed a

large part of its investment in the on-going long capex cycle from such retained earnings or

savings.

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As much as 0.7 percentage point of the 1.3 percentage points increase in gross domestic

savings rate between 2004-05 and 2005 06 has come from the household sector. a construction

boom with residential buildings financed from housing loans form banks and the progressive

maturing of the domestic financial markets. While Housing loans from banks has tended to

increase household savings in physical form and depress financial savings, Progressive maturing

of the domestic financial markets has provided shift in the household portfolio in the three years

ending in 2005-06. Physical savings as a proportion GDP has declined steadily from a high of

12.4 percent in 2003-04 to 10.7 per cent in 2005-06. Financial savings, on the other hand, after

declining from 11.3 per cent to 10.2 per cent between 2003-04 and 2004-05, more than recovered

to 11.7 per cent in 2005-06.

The increase in savings rate is what is to be expected with higher growth rate of the

economy and a declining dependency ratio. with the proportion of population in the working age

group of 15-64 years increasing steadily from 62.9 per cent in 2006 to 68.4 per cent in 2026, the

demographic dividend in the form of high savings rate is likely to continue. As the savings rate

has gone up, private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) at current prices as a proportion of

GDP, has shown a declining trend particularly from 2001-02. PFCE as a proportion of GDP

declined from 63.1 per cent in 2002-03 to 62.1 per cent in 2003-04, 60.0 per cent in 2004-05, and

further to 58.7 per cent in 2005-06. This decline has also been accompanied by substantial

changes in terms of the shares of different commodity groups. In PFCE, the share of food,

beverages and tobacco came down from 43.3 per cent in 2002-03 to 39.4 per cent in 2005-06. The

other major items of importance, namely, transport and communication, as a proportion of PFCE,

rose from 15.8 per cent in 2002-03 to 19.1 per cent in 2004-05. Government final consumption

expenditure GFCE), after declining from 11.9 per cent in 2002-03 to 11.0 per cent in 2004-05,

increased to 11.5 per cent of GDP in 2005-2006.

with the rise in the rate of gross domestic savings between 2003- 04 and 2004-05, there

was a step up in the rate of gross domestic capital formation (GDCF) or investment from 28 per

cent of GDP to 31.5 per cent of GDP leading to a savings investment gap or a current account

deficit of 0.4 percent of GDP in 2004 05 . GDCF at constant prices base: 1999-200) as a

proportion of GDP is consistently lower than the corresponding proportion at current prices. This

differential may reflect the greater increase in the prices of capital goods relative to the general

price level, with growing technological sophistication of the production processes in the economy

in general and manufacturing in particular. But, irrespective of the choice of constant or current

prices as the weights, the direction of change from year to year remains unaltered. This may

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indicate a recent pick up in fresh investment for creating additional capacity through fixed capital

formation, particularly in the private sector.

GDP growth in India in the post-reform period was driven mostly by Private final

consumption expenditure or PFCE growth. PFCE Contributed more than one half of the growth

every year until 2001-02. After falling below one half in 2002-03, it had again dominated GDP

Growth in 2003-04. But this appears to have undergone a virtuous Transformation with

investment rather than private consumption being he Main source of GDP growth in the latest two

years of 2004-05 and 2005- 06 .. Data on consumption and investment in the national accounts

available until 2005-05 show that the 6.8 percentage point contribution of investment to 13.1 per

cent growth in GDP at current market prices in 2004-05 exceeded the corresponding contribution

of private final consumption expenditure at 6.1 percentage point for the first time in recent years.

In terms of contribution to growth of GDP at current market prices, from the demand side,

investment continued to provided the lead during 2004-05 and 2005-6. The percentage point

contribution of investment in the growth of GDP at current market prices of 13.1 per cent and

14.1 per cent in 2004-05 and 2005-06, respectively, were 7.6 per cent and 7.0 per cent,

respectively. With imports growing faster than exports, the external balance continued to have a

negative contribution to GDP growth in recent years.

AGRICULTURE

After an annual average of 3.0 per cent in the first five years of the New millennium

starting 2001-02, growth of agriculture at only 2.7 per Cent in 2006-07, on a base of 6.0 per cent

growth in the previous year, is a Cause of concern. Low investment, imbalance in fertilizer use,

low seeds Replacement rate, a distorted incentive system and low post-harvest value Addition

continued to be a drag on the sectors performance. . with more Than half the population directly

depending on this sector, low Agricultural growth has serious implications for the

inclusiveness of Growth. Furthermore, poor agricultural performance, as the current year Has

demonstrated, can complicate maintenance of price stability with Supply-side problems in

essential commodities of day-to-day Consumption. The recent spurt of activity in food processing

and Integration of the supply chain from the farm gate to the consumers plate Has the potential

of redressing some of the root causes such as low Investment, poor quality seeds, and little post-

harvest processing.

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Prices of primary commodities, mainly food, have been on the rise In 2006-07 so for.

Wheat, pulses, edible oils, fruits and vegetables, an Condiments and spices have been the major

contributors to the higher Inflation rate of primary articles. Within the primary group, the mineral

Subgroup recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 18.2 per cent, Followed by food articles at

12.2 per cent and non-food articles at 12.0Per cent. Food articles have a high weight of 15.4 per

cent in the WPI Basket. Including manufactured products such as sugar and edibleoils, Food

articles contributed as much as 27.2 per cent to overall inflation of6.7 per cent on February

3,2007. Starting with a rate of 3.98 per cent, the in flation rate in 2006-07 has been on a general

upward trend with intermittent decreases. However, average inflation in the 2 weeks ending on

February 3, 2007 remained at 5 per cent.

Government closely monitored prices every week and initiated Measures to enhance

domestic availability of wheat, pulses, sugar and Edible oils by a combination of enhanced

imports, export restrictions and Fiscal concessions. In wheat, State Trading Corporation, the

parastatal, tendered overseas for 55 lakh tonnes of wheat; private trade as permitted to import

wheat at zero duty from September 9; and exports were banned from February 9, 2007. The

minimum support price (MSP) of wheat raised by Rs.50 Per quintal and announced well in

advance of the sowing season to bring additional acreage under wheat. In pulses, imports were

allowed at zero duty from June 8, 2006; export was banned from June 22, 2006; and National

Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation (NAFED) purchased urad and moong overseas.

Regulation of commodity futures markets was strengthened for wheat, sugar and pulses; and as a

matter of abundant precaution, futures trading was banned in urad and tur from January 24, 2007.

Duty on palm group of oils, which meets more than a half of the domestic demand supply

shortfall in edible oils, was reduced by 20-22.5 percentage points in a phased sequence, first in

August 2006 and later in January 2007. Further, tariff values of these oils for import duty

assessment were frozen. On January 22. 2007, further duty cuts were announced for Portland

cement, various metals and machinery items. With a firming up of international prices, the impact

of duty-free import of wheat and pulses in rolling the domestic prices back was limited. But such

imports unproved domestic market discipline.

INFLATION

with a shortfall in domestic production vis--vis domestic demand and hardening of

international prices, prices of primary commodities, mainly food, have been on the rise in 2006-07

so far. Wheat, pluses, edible oils, fruits and vegetables, and condiments and spices have been the

major contributors to the higher inflation rate of primary articles.. Within the primary group, the

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mineral subgroup recorded the highest year-on-year inflation at 18.2 per cent, followed by food

articles at 12.2 per cent and non-food articles at 12.0 per cent. Food articles have a high weight of

15.4 per cent in the WPI basket. Including manufactured products such as sugar and edible oils,

food articles contributed as much as 27.2 per cent to overall inflation of 6.7 per cent on February

3, 2007. Starting with a rate of 3.98 per cent, the inflation rate in 2006-07 has been on a general

upward trend with intermittent decreases. However, average inflation in the 52 weeks ending on

February 3, 2007 remained at 5 per cent. A spurt in inflation like in the current year has been

observed in the recent past in 1997-98, 2000-01, 2003-04, and 2004-05.

FOREIGN IMPACT

oil prices

The international annual average price of the Indian basket of crude (about 60 per cent of

Oman/Dubai and 40 per cent of Brent), after remaining more or less stable in 2002-04 at around

US$27- 28 per barrel, on August 8, 2006. To stop the hemorrhaging of public sector oil

companies finances, there was an unavoidable upward revision of retail selling prices of petro-

products on June 6, 2006. The pass through to consumers was restricted to just 12.5 per cent in a

three way burden sharing arrangement among consumers, Government and oil marketing

companies. With the softening of international petroleum prices, domestic prices of petrol (motorspirit) and high diesel were reduced by Rs. 2 and Re.1, respectively with effect from November

30, 2006, and again by the same amounts with effect from February 16, 2007 .

Balance of payment

In the balance of payments, in 2005-06 and in the first half of 2006-07, capital flows more

than made up for the current account deficits of US$9.2 billion and US$11.7 billion, respectively,

and resulted in reserve accretion. The current account deficit reflected the large and growing trade

deficit in the last two years. Exports grew fast, but imports grew even faster, reflecting in part the

ongoing investment boom and the high international petroleum price. In 2005-06, imports (in US

dollar terms and customs basis) had grown by 33.8 per cent. In the first nine months of the current

year, imports grew by 36.3 per cent. While petroleum imports continued to grow rapidly, non-oil

import growth decelerated to a moderate 18.7 per cent in the first nine months of the current year,

primarily because of high bullion prices leading to a decline in import balance, after remaining in

surplus till 2003-04, has turned negative since 2004-05. Indias exports (in US dollar terms and

customs basis) have been growing at a high rate of more than 20 per cent since 2002-03. During

205-06, growth of 23.4 per cent, Indias exports crossed the US$100 billion mark. During 2006-

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07, after a slow start, exports gained momentum to grow by an estimated 36.3 per cent in the first

nine months to reach US$89.5 billion. Buovancy of exports was driven from major trading

partners.

FDI and FII

Capital flows into India remained strong. The composition of flows, however, fluctuated

from year to year. In the three-year period, 2002-05, there were large other flows (delayed

export receipts and others) accounting for a sizeable proportion of net capital flows. After being

outflows in the previous two years, external assistance and external commercial borrowing

(ECBs) two major debt-creating flows- picked up in 2004-05. These debt flows, as a proportion

of total capital flows, were 25 per cent in 2004-05 and 18 per cent in 2005-06. Foreign

investment, as a proportion of capital flows, has remained in the range of 39.1 per cent to 79.3 per

cent in the last four years ending in 2005-06. There was strong growth in foreign direct

investment (FDI) flows (net), with three-quarters of such flows in the form of equity. The growth

rate was 27.4 per cent in 2005-06 followed by 98.4 per cent in April September 2006. This was

even after gross outflows under FDI with domestic corporate entities seeking a global presence to

harness scale, technology and market access advantages through acquisitions overseas. FII flows,the dominant variety of portfolio flows, after remaining buoyant until 2005-06, turned into net

outflows in the first half of 2006-07. Fill flows are reported to have turned positive again in the

second half of the current year.

THE CAPITAL MARKET

Bullish sentiments in the domestic capital market is foreseen. The BSE sensex, stock-

index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), rallied from a low 8,929 on June 14, 2006 to an all-

time intra-day high of 14,724 on February 9. 2007. The rally from the 13,000 mark to the 1400

mark in only 26 trading from the fastest ever climb of 1,000 points. India with a market

capitalization of 91.5 per cent of GDP on January 12, 2007 the strength of the market micro-

structure from large retail participation continued. The positive sentiments were manifest also in

most indicators such as resource mobilized through the primary market. Aggregate mobilization,

especially through private placements and Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), grew by 30.5 per cent

to RS. 161,769 crore in calendar year 2006, with about 6 IPOs every month, on average. Net

mobilization of resources by mutual funds increased by more than four-fold from Rs. 25,454 crore

in 2005 to Rs. 1,04,950 crore in 2006. The sharp rise in mobilization by mutual funds was due to

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buoyant inflows under both income/debt-oriented schemes and growth/equity oriented schemes.

The negative inflows in 2004 turned positive for the public sector mutual funds in 2005 and

accelerated in 2006. other indicators of market sentiments, such as equity returns and

price/earnings ratio also continued to be strong and supportive of growth.

The upbeat mood of the capital markets. Reflecting the improved growth prospects of the

economy was partly also a result of steady progress made on the infrastructure front. Overall

index of six core industries electricity, coal, crude oil, petroleum refinery products, and cement,

registered a growth of 8.3 per cent.

INFRASTRUCTURE

On the transport and communication front, railways maintained its nearly double-light

growth in the first nine months of the current year. There was, however, a growth declaration in

cargo handled at major maritime ports (both exports and imports) and airports (exports). The

news of gas discoveries in the Krishna Godavari (KG) basin under New exploration and

Licensing Policy (NELP) in recent months was an encouraging development in the countrys

pursuit of reduced impot dependence in hydrocarbons. Investment requirements for infrastructure

during the Eleventh Five Year plan are estimated to be around US$ 320 billion. While nearly 60

percent of these resources would come from the public sector and/or through public-private

partnership (PPP). The potential benefits expected from PPP are : cost-effectiveness, higher

productivity, accelerated delivery, clear customer focus, enhanced social service, and recovery of

user charges. Further, the additionally of resources that PPP would bring, along with the value

for money continues to remain critical. Based on the number of projects that have been approved

or are under consideration, it is estimated that a leveraging of nearly six times could be achieved

through this route.

Services sector growth has continued to be broad-based. Among the three sub-sector of

services, trade, hotels, transport and communication services has continued to boost the sector

by growing at double-digit rates for the forth successive year (table 1.2). impressive progress in

information technology (IT) and IT-enabled services, both rail and road traffic, and fast addition

to existing stock of telephone connections, particularly mobile, played a key role in such growth.

Growth in financial services (comprising banking, insurance, real estate and business services),

after dipping to 5.6 percent in 2003-2004 bounced back to 8.7 percent in 2004-05 and 10.9

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percent in 2005-2006. the momentum has been maintained with a growth of 11.1 percent in

2006-2007.

2.6.2 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

The lower contribution of industry to GDP growth relative to services in recent

year is partly because of its lower share in GDP, and does not adequately capture the signs of

industrial resurgence.

Growth on industrial sector, from a low of 2.7% in 2001-2002, revived to 7.1% and 7.4%

in 2002-2003 and 2003-2004, respectively, and after accelerating to over 9.5% in the next two

years, touched 10.0% in 2006-2007.

The growth of industry, as a proportion of the corresponding growth in services, which

was78.9% on the average between 1991-1992 and 1999-2000, improved to 88.7 % in the last

seven years.

Within industry, the growth impulses in the sector seem to have spread to manufacturing.

Industrial growth would have been even higher, had it not been for a relatively disappointing

performance of the other two sub-sector, namely mining and quarrying, and electricity, gas and

water supply.

Since 1951-1952, industry has never consistently grown at over 7.0% per year for more

than three years in a row before 2004-2005.

YoY, manufacturing, accounting to the monthly index of industrial production (IIP) available

until 2006, has been growing at double digit rates every month since march 2006, with the solitary

exception of the festive month of October.

The current growth phase shows a sharp rise in the rate of investment in the economy.

Investment reflect a high degree of business optimism. The revival in gross domestic capitalformation (GDCF) that commenced in 2002-2003 has been followed by a sharp rise in the rate of

investment in the for four consecutive years. The earlier statement of GDCF for 2004-2005 of

30.1%, released by CSO in their advance estimates,

Now stand upgraded to 31.5% in the quick estimates. This sharp increase in the investment rate

has sustained the industrial performance and reinforces the outlook for growth

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2.6.3 BANKING INDUSTRY ANALYAIS

Bank credit has continued to grow at a pace. Sustained Growth of bank credit was

accommodated by acceleration in deposit Growth. Concomitantly, broad many growth has

remained above the Indicative trajectory , reflecting strong demand conditions. Banks SLR

Investments, as a proportion of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL), have declined

further from their end-March 2006 levels. The Reserve Bank continued to modulate market

liquidity with the help ofLAF repo and reverse repos and issuance of securities under the Market

Stabilisation Scheme (MSS). Furthermore, the Reserve Bank raised cash Reserve ratio (CRR) by

50 basis points in two phases with effect from the Fortnight beginning December 23, 2006

2.7 MONETARY POLICY

Broad money (M3) growth, year-on-year (Y-o-Y), accelerated to 20.4 per cent as on

January 5, 2007 from 17.0 per cent t end-march 2006 and 16.0 per cent a year ago. On a fiscal

year basis too, M3 growth during 2006-07 so far (January 5, 2007 over March 31, 2006), at 11.9

per cent, was higher than that of 8.8 per cent in the corresponding period of 2005- 06 (January 6,

2006 over Apirl1, 2005). Taking into account, inter alia, these trends in monetary aggregates,

sustained growth in credit offtake, and additional absorption of liquidity under the MSS, the

Reserve Bank, on December 8, 2006, decided to increase the CRR by 50 basis points in two

stages 25 basis points each effective the fortnights, beginning December 23, 2006 and January

6, 2007. Other development in the Domestic economy impacting upon the decision to increase the

CRR Included growth in real GDP, acceleration in inflation, expectations of the Private corporate

sector of higher increase in prices of both inputs and Outputs, reports of growing strains on

domestic capacity utilization, and Challenges emanating from capital flows and consequentimpact on Increasing liquidity.

The increase in the CRR is estimated to have absorbed banks resources to the extent of

Rs. 13,500 crore. Expansion in the residency- based new monetary aggregate (NM3) which,

inter alia does not directly reckon non-resident foreign currency deposits such as India

Millennium Deposits (IMDs) and FCNR (B)-was lower than M3, partly Reflecting lower

recourse to call/term funding from financial institutions. Growth in liquidity aggregate L 1 was

lower that that in NM3 on account Of decline in postal deposits.

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2.8 CRR

The Reserve Bank in its Mid-Term Review of Annual Policy Statement for the year 2006-

07 (October 31, 2006) noted, inter alia, that: Furthermore, containing inflation expectations in

the current environment and consolidating gains achieved so far in regard to stability would

warrant appropriate, immediate measures and willingness to take recourse to all possible measures

in response to evolving circumstances promptly. The objective is to continue to maintain

conditions of stability that contribute to sustaining the momentum of growth on an enduring basis.

Towards this objective, the monetary policy stance and measures will need to be in a process of

careful rebalancing and timely adjustment. Subsequent to the announcement of the Mid-term

Review, there were a Number of significant developments, particularly on the domestic front.

These included:

1.Real GDP growth at 9.2 per cent during July-September 2006 and 9.1 per cent in the

first half of 2006-07. 2. Continued high growth in non-food bank, acceleration in money supply

(M3 ) growth and reserve money growth and absorption of additional liquidity under the market

stabilization scheme(MSS)

3. Increase in WPI inflation, with inflation based on the various

consumer price indices being higher than WPI.

4. As per the RBI s Industrial Outlook survey, a majority of respondents from the private

corporate sector expect higher increase in prices of both inputs and outputs.

There were reports of growing strains on domestic capacity Utilization. There were also

reports that expansion of capacity is Underway but the realization could be constrained over the

next two years. A seasonal decline in prices of food articles could moderate the inflation Pressures

but the WPI inflation excluding food articles remains at Elevated levels. The reduction in pricesof petrol and diesel in end- November 2006 will moderate inflation, but the overall impact on

Inflation expectations requires to be monitored and moderated. The External sector continues to

be strong and current account deficit is likely To be close to the trend, and will continue to be

accommodated by net Capital flows. However, it is necessary to recognize the challenges

Emanating from capital flows and consequent impact on increasing Liquidity.

In view of the above, the Reserve Bank, on December 8, 2006, Decided to increase the

cash reserve ratio (CRR) of the scheduled Commercial banks, regional rural banks (RRBs),

scheduled state co- Operative banks and scheduled primary (urban) co-operative banking System

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by 50 basis points of their net demand and time liabilities NDTL ) In two stages-25 basis points

each effective from fortnights beginning December 23, 2006 and January 6, 2007. As a result of

the ncreases in CRR on liabilities to banking system, an amount of about Rs. 13,500 crore Of

resources of banks would be absorbed,

Amongst its major components, both currency and time deposits Contributed to

acceleration in growth in M3 year-year basis growth in Currency with the public increased from

15.4 per cent as on January 6,2006 to a peak of 19.4 per cent as on October 27, 2006 before

moderating to 16.8 per cent as on January 5, 2007. Acceleration in growth in October 2006 could

be partly attributed to the early onset of festival Season currency demand during the current year.

Growth in aggregate deposits accelerated to 21.1 per cent, y-o-y, as On January 5, 2007

from 16.2 per cent a year ago, on the back of higher Accretion to time deposits. On a y-o-y basis,

growth in demand deposits (19.2 per cent) as on January 5, 2007 was of a lower order than a year

ago (28.7 per cent). Accertion to time deposits was, however, significantly higher than that in the

previous year. Growth in time deposits of scheduled commercial banks accelerated to 22.9 per

cent (y-o-y) as on January 5, 2007 from 15.0 per cent a year ago. This, apart from Acceleration in

economic activity, could be attributed to higher interest Rates on deposits as well as tax benefits.

Interest rates on time deposits of 1-3 years maturity offered by public sector banks increased from

a range of 5.75-6.75 per cent in March 2006 to 6.75-8.25 per cent in January 2007. Rates offered

by private sector banks on deposits of similar maturity increased from a range of 5.50-7.75 per

cent to 6.75-9.75 per cent over the same period.

Growth in time deposits also appears to have benefited from the Recently introduced tax

benefits under section 80C for deposits with Maturity of five years and above. Concomitantly,with unchanged interest Rates, postal deposits have witnessed a significant decline since end

march 2006. Commercial sectors demand for bank credit has continued To remainstrong during

2006-07 so far. On a year-on-year asis, non-food Credit of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)

registered a growth of 31.2 Per cent as on January 5, 2007- the same rate as a year ago. On a fiscal

Year basis, growth in non-food credit decelerated marginally to 16.9 per Cent as on January 5,

2007 from 7.5 per cent a year ago. In view of the Acceleration in deposits, the ncremental credit

deposit ratio of SCBs, After remaining above/around 100 per cent for the most part since

October 2004, has exhibited some moderation in recent months. As on January 5, 2007, the

incremental redit-deposit ratio was around 93 per Cent (y-o-y) as compared with 108 per cent a

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year ago scheduled Commercial banks food credit has recorded a modest rise (5.9 per cent)

During 2006-07 (up to January 5, 2007) reflecting lower order of Procurement of food grains.

Disaggregated data available up to October 2006 show that credit

Growth has been largely broad-based. About 34 per cent of incremental Non-food credit was

absorbed by industry, 12 per cent by other Retail loans. Loans to commercial real estate, which

increased by 84 per Cent, y-o-y, absorbed 5 per cent of incremental non-food credit. Apart From

bank credit, the corporate sector continued to rely on non-bank.

Sources of funds financing their requirement. Resources raised thorough domestic equity

issuances during the first nine months of 2006-2007 (Rs. 23, 843 crore) were more than double of

that in the corresponding period of 2005-2006. After remaining subdued during the second

quarter, amounts raised from the primary market picked up during the third quarter of 2006-2007.

Mobilisation of resources through equity issuances abroad ADRs /DGRs ) during April-December

2006 (Rs. 8,019 crore) were 55 percent higher than that in the same period of 2005. recouse to

external commercial borrowings (ECBs) during the first half of 2006-2007 was almost double of

that in the corresponding period of 2005-2006, with net disbursement under ECBs increasing

from Rs. 17,551 crore during April-September 2005 to Rs. 34,031 crore during April-September

2006. Mogbilisation theough issuances of commercial papers during April-December 2006 was

more than three times of that a year ago, now withstanding some sluggishness in the third quarter.

Finally, internal sources of funds continued to provide large financing support to the domestic

corporate sector during the first half of 2006-2007. Profits after tax of select non-financial

nongovernment companies during April-September 2006 were almost 40 percent higher than

those in the first half of 2005-2006. Profits after tax during the second quarter of 2006-2007 were

higher than those in each of the five preceding quarters.

In the fiscal year 2006-2007 (up to January 5, 2007), commercial banks investments in

gifts witnessed a large expansion of Rs. 43,222 crore in contrast to a decline of Rs. 15,580 crore a

year ago, reflecting the need to meet statutory requirements. On a y-o-y basis, commercial banks

investments in gilts increased by 5.6 percent as against a decline of 0.1 percent a year ago. Over

the same period, growth in commercial banks NDLT accelerated to 20.7 percent from 18.3

percent a year ago. With incremental investment in gilts not keeping pace with the high growth in

NDLT, commercial banks holdings of Government securities declined to 28.6 percent of their

NDLT as on January 5, 2007 fron 31.3 percent at the end o-March 2006 and 32.6 percent a year

ago. Excess SLR investments of SCBs fell to Rs. 96.407 crore as on January 5, 2007 from Rs.

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1,68,029 crore a year ago. Funds raised through equity issuances in the primary market as well as

higher internal reserves also enabled banks to fund strong credit demand.

Reserve Money

Reserve money expanded by 20.0 percent, y-o-y, as on January 19, 2007 as compared with

14.9 percent a year ago. Adjusted for the first round effect of the hike in the CRR, reserve money

growth was 17.4 percent as on Janurary 29, 2007. Reserve money movements over the course of

the year reflected the Reserve Banks market operations. The Reserve Banks foreign currency

assets (net of revaluation) increased by Rs. 80,166 crore during the fiscal year 2006-2007 (up to

January 19, 2007) as compared with an increase of Rs. 11,185 crore during the corresponding

period of the previous year Mirroring the liquidity management operations through LAF, the

Reserve Banks holdings of Government securities increased by Rs. 10,615 crore during 2006-

2007 (up to January 19, 2007) as against an increase of Rs. 27,435 crore in the corresponding

period of 2005-2006. During 2006-2007 so far Central Government deposits with te Reserve

Bank have increased by Rs. 3,615 crore. The Reserve Banks net credit to the Centre, thus,

increased by Rs. 6,963 crore during the fiscal year 2006-2007 ( up to January 19, 2007) as against

an increase of Rs. 50, 622 crore during the corresponding period of 2005 206

2.9 LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT

The Reserve Bank continued to ensure the appropriate liquidity is maintained in the

system so that all legitimate requirements of credit are met, particularly for productive purposes,

consistent with the objective of price and financial stability. Towards this end, the Reserve Bank

continued with its policy of active demand management of liquidity through OMO including

MSS, LAF and CRR, and using all the policy instruments as its disposal flexibly. However.

Liquidity management emerged to be more complex during the past year, with greater variation in

market liquidity, largely reflecting variations in cash balances of the Governments and capital

flows. During the first quarter, unwinding of the Centers surplus balances with the Reserve

Banks purchase of foreign exchange from authorized dealers led to ample liquidity into the

banking system. This was mirrored in an increase in the LAF reverse repo balances.

However, in view of some build-up of Centres cash balances with the Reserve Bank

during August 2006, the absorption under LAF reverse repose witnessed some decline during the

second quarter. Beginning mid September 2006, liquidity conditions turned tight on account of

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advance tax outflows and festival season currency demand. The Reserve Bank injected liquidity

through repo on eight occasions between mid September 2006 and end-October 2006. however,

net injection of liquidity was witnessed only on two occasions (October 20 and October 23, 2006).

Liquidity pressures eased by end-October 2006 following soje decline in Centres surplus cash

balances. Liquidity conditions eased during November 2006, partly reflecting market purchases

of foreign exchange by the Reserve Bank. This was mirrored in balances under LAF reverse

repos, which increased to Rs. 34.255 crore as on December 6, 2006. liquidity conditi8ons,

however, turned tight from the second week of December 2006 largely due to payments for

auctioned Central Government securities, advance tax outflows (with concomitant increase in the

Centres surplus cash balances with the Reserve Bank from Rs. 42, 716 crore as on December 15,

2006 to Rs. 73,634 crore on December 22, 2006), and the increase in the CRR by 501 basis points

in two phases. In view of the prevailing liquidity conditions, the Reserve Bank injected liquidity

into the system through repo operations from December 12, 2006.

Average daily net injection of liquidity by the Reserve Bank increased from Rs. 5,615

crore during December 13-21, 2006 to Rs. 25,585 crore during December 22-29, 2006 in contrast

to the average daily absorption of Rs. 1,262 crore and Rs. 9,937 crore during October 2006 and

November 2006, respectively. Average daily net injection of liquidity by the Reserve Bank

moderated to Rs. 10, 814 crore during January 2007 (up to January 20, 2007), as liquidity

pressures eased partly on account of reduction in the Centres balance with the Reserve Bank

from Rs. 65,682 crore as on December 29,2006 to Rs. 48,528 crore as on January 19, 2007. Net

outstanding balance under LAF repos was Rs. 10,190 crore as on January 24, 2007.

2.10 INIDAN FINANCIAL SECTOR SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths

1. proven asses quality resilience in past downturns.

2. Prove management teams, track record

3. Stable industry dynamics

4. Well established regulatory frame work

5. Stable / low NPL formation rates.

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Opportunities

1. Improving secular GDP growth prospectus

2. Establishment of special economic zone likely to promote further industrialization

3. Years, if not decades, of catch-up economics low per capita income, educated work

force.

4. Rapid financial deepening, i.e. loan growth as multiple of nominal GDP growth.

5. Rising consumer spending, consumer credit business.

6. Rising corporate capex, investments

7. M&A optimality.

Key issues/swing factors

1. Liquidity : Deposit growth sustaining momentum and loan growth moderating to 25%

from the current level of 30%

2. Policy risks: Moderating in inflation outlook. Potential for further tightening in the short

term. Our echonomist believes that the risk is less.

3. Interest rate outlook some headwind from policy rate hike but won,t be a shock factor.4. Loan growth : Moderation needed more for maintaining industry dynamics.

5. Reduction in reserve requirements: key swing factor for liquidity and hence for sustaining

growth momentum.

Key risk factors

1. Running on empty in terms of liquidity

2. Tightening in global liquidity may trickle down to Inida

3. Potentially hawkish RBI stant on inflation/monetary policy

4. potential rise in long bond yields, MTM risk for banks

5. potential for valuation pullback, should earnings delivery disappoint expectations.

Weakness, Key challenges

1. Continued crowding out effect form Govt. budget deficit, combained with accelerating

private credit demands

2. Ownership restrictions

3. Constraints on state- owned banks micro including HR, staff cut, branch cut constraints.

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2.11 BUDGET 2007-2008 OVERVIEW

BUDGET 2007-2008

Improvement in GDP growth rate from 7.5% in 2004-2005 to 9% in 2006-2007; average

growth rate in the three ears of the UPA Government at 8.6% growth target for the Tenth Plan of

8% will be nearly achieved; during three year period, acceleration in growth rate inmanufacturing

from 8.7% to 9.1% and further to 11.3% and in services sector from 9.6% to 9.8% and further to

11.2%. average growth in agriculture during Tenth Plan estimated at 2.3%

Income and Savings : per capita income in 2005-2006, in real terms, increased by 7.4%,

savings rate estimated at 32.4% and investment rate at 33.8%.

Inflation : Growth in bank credit, year on year, by 29.6% expansion in money supply (M3) by

21.3% foreign exchange reserves at US$ 180 billion; pressure on domestic pri8ces by global

commodity prices; and supply constraints in some essential commodities consequently, average

inflation in 2006-2007 estimated at between 5.2 and 5.4% vis--vis 4.4% last year.

In 2006-2007, additional irrigation potential of 2,400,000 hectares to be created; until December

2006 drinking water provided to 55,512 habitation, 12,198 kilometers of rural roads completed

and 783,000 rural houses constructed with 914,000 houses under construction; 19,758 villages

covered so far under the Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana; 15,054 villages provided

with telephone against target of 20, 000 villages, and balance to be covered by the end of the year.

ELEVENTH FIVE YEAR PLAN

Objectives : Faster and more Inclusive Growth, growth rate of approximately 10% by the end

of plan period; growth of 4% in the agriculture sector, faster employment creation, reducing

disparities across regions and ensuring access to basic physical infrastructure and health and

education services to all.

AGRICULTURE

Farm credit : Target of Rs. 225,000 crore for 2007-2008 with an addition of 50 lakh new farmers

to the banking system; provision of Rs. 1,677 crore for 2% interest subvention for short-tem crop

loans; a special plan being implemented over a period of three years in 31 especially distressed

districts in four states involving a total amount of Rs. 16,979 crore; of this, about Rs. 12,400 crore

to be on water related schemes; special plan includes a scheme with proposed provision of Rs.

153 crore for induction of high yielding milch animals and related activities.

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Mission for Pulses : Integrated Oilseeds, oil palm, Pulses and Maize Development programme to

be expanded with sharper focus on scaling up the production of breeder, foundation and certified

seeds; Government to fund the expansion of Indian Institute of Pulses Research, Kanpur, and

offer the other producers a capital grant or concessional financing to double production of

certified seeds within a period of three years.

Plantation Sector : Financial mechanisms for re-plantation and rejuvenation to be put in place

for coffee, rubber, spices, cashew and coconut.

Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme : 35 projects likely to be completed in 2006-2007

and additional irrigation potential of 900,000 hectares to be created; outlay to be increased from

Rs. 7,121 crore to Rs. 11,000 crore including grant component to State Governments of Rs. 3,580

crore, an increase from Rs. 2,350 crore.Rainfed Area

Development Programme: Proposed allocation of Rs. 100 crore for the new Rainfed Area

Development Programme.

Water Resources Management : Restoring Water Bodies : World Bank loan agreement signed

with TamilNadu for Rs. 2,182 crore to resore 5,763 water bodies having a command area of

400,000 hectares; agreement for Andhra Pradesh expected to be concluded in March 2007 to

cover 3000 water bodies with a command area of 250,000 hectares.

Extension System : New programme to be drawn up that will replicate earlier Training and Visit

(T&V) programme; Agriculture Technology Management Agency (ATMA) now in place in 262

districts to be extended to another 300 districts; provision for ATMA to increase from Rs. 50crore to Rs. 230 crore.

Fertiliser Subsidies : Based on study to be conducted, a pilot programme to be implemented for

delivering subsidy directly to farmer.

Agricultural Insurance : National Agricultural Insurance Scheme to be continued for Kharif

and Rabi 2007-2008 with a provision of Rs. 500 crore; a weather based crop insurance scheme to

be started by Agricultural Insurance Corporation on a pilot basis as an alternative to NAIS

allocation of Rs. 100 crore to be made in 2007-2008

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INVESTMENT :

Gross domestic capital formation in 2005-2006 grew by 23.7 percent in April-January, 2006-

2007, foreign direct investment amounted to US $ 12.5 billion and outpaced portfolio investment

of US$ 6.8 billion;

Central Public Sector

To invest Rs. 165,053 crore through internal and extra budgetary resources in 2007-2008;

Government to provide equity support of Rs. 16,361 crore and loans of Rs. 2,970 crore.

INFRASTRUCTURE :

Power : Seven more Ultra Mega Power Projects under process and at least two to be awarded by

July, 2007; other initiatives include facilitating setting up of merchant power plants by private

developers and private participation in transmission projects; Accelerated Power Development

and Reforms being restructured to cover all district headquarters and town with a population of

more than 501,000; budgetary support for APDRP to increase from Rs. 650 crore to Rs. 800

crore; Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana; allocation to increase from Rs. 3,000 crore to

Rs. 3,983 crore.

Coal : 26 coal blocks with reserves of 8,581million tones and four lignite blocks with reserves

of 755 million tones allotted to Government companies and approved end users; definition of

specific end use to be enlarged to include underground coal gasification and coal liquefaction.

National Highways ; Provision for National Highway Development Programme to increase from

Rs. 9,945 crore to Rs. 10,667 crore; road-cum rail bridge at Bogibee, Assam, over Brahmaputra,

to be taken up as an national project.

Public Private Partnership and Vialibility Gap Funding :

Revolving fund with a corpus of Rs. 100 crore to be set up to quicken project preparation; fund to

contribute upto 75% of preparatory expenditure in the form of interest free loan to be recovered

from the successful bidder.

INDUSTRY

Petroleum and Naural Gas :162 production contracts awarded; investment of Rs. 97,000 crore

made in exploration; 23 coal bed methane blocks awarded for exploration.

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Textiles : Provision for Scheme for Integrated Textiles Parks to increase from Rs. 189 crore to

Rs. 425 crore; echnology Upgradation Fund scheme to continue with provision of Rs. 911 crore.

Handlooms : Additional 100-150 clusters to be taken up in 2007-2008; health insurance scheme

to be extended to more weavers and also to be enlarge to include ancillary workers; allocation for

the sector to be enhanced from Rs. 241 crore to Rs 321 crore.

Small & Medium Enterprises : Increase in outstanding credit from Rs. 135,200 crore to Rs.

173, 460 crore at end December 2006.

Coir Industry :Scheme for modernization and technology upgradation with special emphasis to

major coir producing States announced with a proposed provision of Rs. 22.50 crore.

SERVICE SECTOR

Foreign Trade : Merchandise exports expected to cross US $ 125 billion by the end of the

current fiscal.

Tourism ; Provision for tourist infrastructure to increase from Rs. 423 crore to Rs. 520 crore.

FINANCIAL SECTOR

Banking : Under Differential Rate of Interest scheme providing finance at a rate of 4% to weaker

sections of the community engaged in gainful occupations, limit of loan to be raised from Rs.

6,500 to Rs. 15,000 and limit of housing loan to be raised from Rs. 5,000 to Rs. 20,000 per

beneficiary.

Regional Rural Banks : To open at least one branch in 80 uncovered districts in 2007-2008 \;Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Securitisation of

Interest (SARFAESH) Act to be extended to loans advanced by RRBs; to be permitted to accept

NRE/FCNR deposits; and those which have a negative net worth to be recapitalized.

Housing Loans : National Housing Bank to introduce reverse mortgage under which a senior

citizen who is owner of a hose can avail of a monthly stream of income against mortgage of

his/her house, while remaining the owner and occupying the house throughout his/her lifetime,

without repayment or servicing of the loan; regulations to be put in place to allow creation of

mortgage guarantee companies.

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Insurance : Exclusive health insurance scheme for senior citizens offered by National Insurance

Company; other three public sector insurance companies to offer a similar product to senior

citizens; Micro Financial Sector (Development and Regulation) Bill and a comprehensive Bill to

amen insurance laws to be introduced in Budget Session.

Financial Inclusion: A Financial Inclusion Fund to be established with NABARD for meeting

cost of development and promotional interventions; a Financial Inclusion Technology Fund to be

also established to meet costs of technology adoption; each fund to have an overall corpus of Rs.

500 crore, with initial funding to be contributed by Government. RBI and NABARD.

Capital Markets : PAN to be made sole identification number for all participants in securities

market with an alpha-numeric prefix or suffix to distinguish a particular kind of account; idea of

self Regulating Organisations (SRO) to be taken forward for different market participants under

regulations to be made by SEBI; mutual funds to be permitted to launch and operate dedicated

infrastructure funds; individuals to be permitted to invest in overseas securities through Indian

mutual funds; short selling settled by delivery, and securities lending and borrowing to facilitate

deliver, by institutions to be allowed; enabling mechanism to be put in place to permit Indian

companies to unlock a part of their holdings in group companies for meeting their financing

requirements by issue of Exchangable Bonds

Innovative Financing for Infrastructure : Funds from National Small Savings Fund may also

now be borrowed by India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited; suggestions of Deepak

Parekh Committee to be examined for establishment of two wholly owned overseas subsidiaries

of IIFCL with objectives to (i) borrow funds form RBI and lend to Indian companiesimplementing infrastructure projects in India, or to co-finance their ECBs for such projects, solely

for capital expenditure outside India; and (ii) borrow funds from the RBI, invest such funds in

highly reated collateral securities and provide credit wrap insurance to infrastructure projects in

India for raising resources in international markets.

SOLUTION OVERVIEW

One of the biggest challenges for Financial was ensuring straight through

processing (STP) of most of the financial transactions. With the ICICI group having several

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companies under its umbrella, Financial needed to seamlessly integrate with multiple applications

such as credit cards, mutual funds, brokerage, call center and data were housing systems. Another

key challenge was managing transaction volumes.

ICICI Bank, underwent a phase of organic and inorganic growth, first by acquiring Bank

of Madura followed by a reverse merger of the bank with its parent organization, ICICI Limited.

The Scalable and open systems based architecture, enable Finance to successfully manage the

resultant increase in transaction levels from 400,000 transactions a day in 2000 to nearly 201

million by 2005 with an associated growth in peak volumes by 5.5 times. With Financial, the

bank currently has the ability to process 0.27 million cheques per day and manage 7000

concurrent users.

Over the years, the strategic partnership between ICICI Bank and Infosys that started in

1994 has grown stronger and the close collaboration has resulted in many innovations. For

instantance, in 1997, it was the first bank in India to offer Internet Banking with Finacles e-

banking solution and established itself as a leader in the Internet and eCommerce space. The bank

followed it up with offering several e-Commerce services like Bill Payments, Funds Transfers and

Corporate Banking over the net. The Internet is a critical element of ICICI Banks award winning

multi-channel strategy that is one of the main engines of growth for the bank. Between 2000 and

2004, the bank has been able to successfully move over 7

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