Dueling Estimates: Closing Thoughts Jennifer H. Madans National Center for Health Statistics.
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Transcript of Dueling Estimates: Closing Thoughts Jennifer H. Madans National Center for Health Statistics.
![Page 1: Dueling Estimates: Closing Thoughts Jennifer H. Madans National Center for Health Statistics.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022082620/5a4d1b0e7f8b9ab05998d61e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Dueling Estimates:Closing Thoughts
Jennifer H. Madans
National Center for Health Statistics
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Assumptions• Conflicting estimates are a
problem for the Federal Statistical System • They cause confusion among
policy makers, the press and the public
• They reduce confidence in the data produced by the system and each agency
• The producers may understand and accept the causes but the users do not
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Assumptions• Producers and users would prefer
if estimates of what appear to be the same phenomena were similar if not the same
• Much attention has been directed toward the problem but results have been unsatisfying• We are still talking about it at
this seminar
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The Challenge• Multiple estimates is a natural
result of a decentralized federal statistical system• Focus on maximizing the utility
of information for Departmental policy needs
• Focus on maximizing quality of each data collection activity
• Internal needs trump cross system needs
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Session Objective
• Revisit possible solutions from a data collection life cycle point of view
• Acknowledge the benefits and costs of different approaches
• Start a discussion about what would be needed to have a more structured, proactive approach to reduce the impact of competing estimates and the associated costs
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Current Situation
• Previous speakers outlined several different approaches • Front end – joint planning and
testing with coordinated implementation
• Back end -- Explanation of what is being measured; potential source of difference; joint analysis; joint publication
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Front End Solutions
• Costly but hold promise• Increased cost of data collection• Reduced flexibility in collection
cycle• Potential sacrifice of survey
specific aims to achieve the system’s need for comparability
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Back End Solutions
• Solutions of lowest data collection and staff cost but are probably least satisfying
• Will always be needed even if other approaches are used
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System Solution• Statistical agencies produce multiple
estimates of the same thing that generate little attention or confusion
• Only a limited number are dueling• For these estimates, agree to
designate which are ‘official’ • Official estimates can be a set of
related estimates each with specific uses
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System Solution• Requires more of a change in how
agencies relate to each • Limits statistical agency ability to
communicate with users, the press and the public • Could have unintended impact of
budgets
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Which Way Forward
• System is too complex to embrace one solution• How do we determine what
solution works best for different types of estimates?
• Not all ‘dueling estimates’ are equally problematic• How do we identify the ones
that need most attention?
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Which Way Forward
• When are the costs of minimizing the existence of dueling estimates too high?
• Are there other benefits of strengthening ‘System’ objectives in areas of data collection and dissemination of findings?