Druckman Et Almond 2013 How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation

5/28/2018 Druckman Et Almond 2013 How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation

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American Political Science Review Page 1 of 23 February 2013

doi:10.1017/S0003055412000500

How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion FormationJAMES N. DRUCKMAN Northwestern UniversityERIK PETERSON Stanford UniversityRUNE SLOTHUUS Aarhus University

Competition is a defining element of democracy. One of the most noteworthy events over the

last quarter-century in U.S. politics is the change in the nature of elite party competition: Theparties have become increasingly polarized. Scholars and pundits actively debate how these elitepatterns influence polarization among the public (e.g., have citizens also become more ideologicallypolarized?). Yet, few have addressed what we see as perhaps more fundamental questions: Has elitepolarization altered the way citizens arrive at their policy opinions in the first place and, if so, in whatways? We address these questions with a theory and two survey experiments (on the issues of drilling andimmigration). We find stark evidence that polarized environments fundamentally change how citizensmake decisions. Specifically, polarization intensifies the impact of party endorsements on opinions,decreases the impact of substantive information and, perhaps ironically, stimulates greater confidence inthoseless substantively groundedopinions. We discuss the implications for public opinion formationand the nature of democratic competition.

E.E. Schattschneider (1960, 138) concluded hisclassic book, The Semisovereign People, by

defining democracy as a competitive politicalsystem in which competing leaders and organizationsdefine the alternatives of public policy in such a waythat the public can participate in the decision-makingprocess (italics in original). Although his work vastlyinfluenced the trajectory of multiple areas of politicalscience, his concluding conception of democracy hasreceived relatively scant attention. In this article, wetake up an aspect of his definition by addressing thisquestion: How does thetenor of political competitiona defining element of democracyaffect the nature ofcitizen decision making?

We focus on one of themost discussedcontemporary

developments in U.S. politics: elite polarization. Overthe last quarter-century, elected representatives and ac-tivists from the major parties have become more ideo-logically distinct from one another and more internallyhomogeneous (e.g., McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal2006). Therefore, following previous work, we defineelite polarization as high levels of ideological distancebetween parties and high levels of homogeneity withinparties. Lively debate revolves around the causes andconsequences of elite polarization, with notable atten-tion to whether citizens have also become polarized.Although there is far from a consensus on the statusof citizen polarization (e.g., Fiorina and Abrams 2008,

James N. Druckman is Payson S. Wild Professor, Department ofPoliticalScience, Northwestern University, ScottHall, 601 UniversityPlace, Evanston, IL 60208 ([email protected]).

Erik Peterson is a graduate student, Department of Political Sci-ence, Stanford University, Encina Hall West, 616 Serra Street, Stan-ford, CA 94305 ([email protected]).

Rune Slothuus is Associate Professor, Department of PoliticalSci-ence, Aarhus University, BartholinsAlle 7, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark([email protected]).

We thank Laurel Harbridge, Gabe Lenz, Matt Levendusky, KerryOBrien, Josh Robison, and seminar participants at Aarhus Uni-versity for their helpful comments. We thank Allie Fredendall forresearch assistance. We also thank the Northwestern Office of Un-dergraduateStudies and the DanishSocial Science Research Council(grant 275-07-0179) for financial support.

582; Hetherington 2009, 429), we nonetheless turn tothe more fundamental question of how elite polariza-

tion affects the nature of citizen decision making.We theorize and find, with two experiments on im-

migration and energy, that elite polarization dramat-ically changes the ways citizens form opinions. Thischange occurs because polarization stimulates parti-san motivated reasoning, which in turn generates de-cision making that relies more on partisan endorse-ments and less on substantive arguments. We discussthe consequences of this shift in decision-making cri-teria for understanding the nature of public opinion.We also consider the implications of these findings fornormative debates about quality opinions and moregeneral discussions about polarization and democratic

competition.

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FRAMING AND PARTY COMPETITION

Our goal is to assess the impact of elite polarization oncitizen decision making. To do so, we employ a coun-terfactual: We compare the decisions citizens reach inthe presence of competing arguments made in a polar-ized environment against those made in less polarizedenvironments (see Mansbridge 1983, 25). Our centralquestion is, do opinions formed under conditions ofelite polarization differ from those formed sans po-larization? We specifically compare the role of perhapsthe two most widely used types of information on which

citizens base political decisions: substantive arguments(of varying types or strengths) in the form of distinctissue frames and partisan cues. We discuss each in turn.

Framing

We operationalize arguments as directional issueor emphasis frames. Few topics have been studied as

1 Others explore how competition influences decision making, andwe build on some of this work in what follows (e.g., Boudreau n.d.;Petersen, Slothuus, and Togeby2010; Snidermanand Theriault2004).

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How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation February 2013

extensively in the field of political communication (e.g.,Chong and Druckman 2011; n.d.). Frames refer toalternative conceptualizations of an issue or event. Aframing effect occurs when in the course of describingan issue or event, a speakers emphasis on a subsetof potentially relevant considerations causes individu-als to focus on these considerations when constructingtheir opinions (Druckman and Nelson 2003, 730). An

oft-cited example is that if a speaker describes a hategroup rally in terms of free speech, then the audiencewill subsequently base its opinions about the rally onfree speech considerations and support the right torally. In contrast, if the speaker uses a public safetyframe, the audience will base its opinions on publicsafety considerations and oppose the rally (Nelson,Clawson, and Oxley 1997).

A number of studies over the past quarter-centuryshow that framing effects can substantially shape opin-ions. This work isolates a variety of factors that mod-erate the impact of a given frame. One of the mostimportant factors is a frames strength. As with thepsychological attitude literature on argument strength(e.g., OKeefe 2002, 147, 156), frame strength is a rela-tive construct that refers to individuals perceptions ofwhat makes a compelling argument. Scholars typicallyassess frame or argument strength by providing re-spondents with alternative frames/arguments and thenasking them to rate the effectiveness or applicabilityof each (e.g., Aare 2011; Chong and Druckman 2007;2010; Druckman 2010; Druckman and Leeper 2012a;OKeefe 2002).2 Concerning a hate group rally, for in-stance, these frames or arguments could involve consid-erations of free speech, public safety, public litter, traf-fic problems, the communitys reputation, or racism. Aframe is deemed relatively stronger than another if it

receives a significantly higher rating of effectiveness orapplicability (for detailed discussion, see Chong andDruckman 2007). Different frames on each side mightbe relatively strong or weak when compared to oneanother. For example, individuals likely perceive thepublic safety frame to be a stronger argument against ahate groups rally than an alternative con frame thatargues that the rally should not be held because it willresult in litter in the streets.

If two opposing frames are of equal strength, theireffects on an opinion tend to cancel out (Chong andDruckman 2007; Druckman 2004; Jerit 2009; Snider-man and Theriault 2004). Perhaps more interesting iswhat happens when frames are not evenly matched. Agrowing research literature shows that strong frames,when used in isolation, move opinions. More impor-tantly, strong frames win out when pitted againstrelatively weak frames, even if the weak frame isrepeated. For example, Druckman (2010) pre-testedframe strength on the issue of a publically funded

2 Another dimension of strength is whether the consideration em-phasized in the frame is available, meaning that individuals areable to connect a given consideration (e.g., free speech) to the issueat hand (e.g., the hate group rally). When necessary (e.g., when it isnot evident that considerations are relevant), availability is assessedby askingrespondentsto list what considerations come to mind when

they think of the issue.

casino and found that strong frames included the (posi-tive) economic implications and (negative) social costsof building the casino. Pretesting also demonstratedthat weak frames included the (positive) entertainmentvalue and (negative) moral implications surroundingthe casinos construction. When another group of re-spondents encountered a mix of these frames, only thestrong frames affected their opinion (e.g., a single ex-

posure to the strong economic frame moved opinionby 41%), even in the face of multiple negative moralvalue frames (also see Aare 2011). These results aresensible insofar as the frames people find strong do infact dominate. This leads to our first hypothesis, whichechoes the aforementioned work:

Hypothesis 1: When presented with opposing strong frames,individuals opinions will not be moved by either frame.When presented with a strong frame on one side (e.g., pro)and a weak frame on the other side (e.g., con), individualsopinions, if affected,will be movedonly by thestrong frame.

We added the if affected caveat to Hypothesis 1 be-

cause if individuals have very strong prior opinionson an issue, they are unlikely to be persuaded in anydirection (e.g., Brewer 2001).

We briefly mention that we do not necessarilyequate strong frames with more normatively desir-able opinionsparticularly because strength is basedon perceptions and not normatively derived criteriaper se. In our conclusion, we discuss the normativeimplications of relying on strong frames as opposed toother criteria. For now the question is whether parties,particularly when polarized, influence which types offrames, if any, that people follow. Do party endorse-ments matter when frames are of different strengths?

Does polarization influence this process?

Party Competition

Even though most frames enter political discourse viapolitical actors (e.g., parties, interest groups), mostframing studies have provided study respondents witheither unattributed frames or frames attributed to anews organization. Only a few studies have exploredhow frames from parties influence citizens. The modalfinding of these studies is that partysource does matter.For example,Slothuus (2010) reportsthat, when partiesswitch frames, their members follow (also see Nichol-son 2011), although not blindly because partisans also

incorporate their own preexisting values. Slothuus andde Vreese (2010)find that party-sponsored frames havegreater influence on issues where the parties conflict.These studies, however, do not explore competitiveframing environments or vary frame strength (or thesubstance of distinct arguments more generally), andthey do not directly account for different partisan en-vironments (e.g., polarized or not).

Perhaps surprisingly, a similar assessment can bemade of the long-standing literature on party cues andendorsement effects. (We use the terms party cueand party endorsements interchangeably, althoughwe recognize that an endorsement is only one type of

cue.). Although scholars have long acknowledged cues

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American Political Science Review

as central to opinion formation, little existing workexplores how citizens grapple with party cues in thepresence of substantive information. As Bullock (2011,496) explains, In spite of numerous claims about therelative influence of policy attributes and position-taking by party elites [i.e., party endorsements], di-rect evidence is slight because few studies directlycompare the effects of these variables. He continues,

noting that in political debate, cues and frames al-most always appear together: Party elites rarely takea position without trying to frame it in a way thatwill garner support for it (511). Bullock (2011) re-views the relevant literature (e.g., Arceneaux 2008,Druckman et al. 2010) and tests the effects of partycues versus policy arguments by varying the avail-ability of cues and content. He finds that party cueshave an effect, but do not overwhelm content. Heconcludes that party cues are influential, but par-tisans . . . are generally affected at least as much and sometimes much moreby exposure to substantialamounts of policy information (2011, 512).

Although these results are telling, they are notsuffi-cient to addressour question. We need to introduce twovariations that Bullock did not address: (1) variations inargument type (e.g., frame strength) and (2) variationsin partisan polarization. By doing so we can examinethe conditions under which party cues dominate, re-gardless of frame strength, as well as the conditions inwhich frame strength is the more important factor (alsosee Nicholson 2011).

To address how partisan polarization affects the rel-ative influence of party cues and substantive argumentson opinion formation, we draw on the theory of parti-san motivated reasoning.3 Motivated reasoning refersto the tendency to seek out information that confirms

prior beliefs (i.e., a confirmation bias), view evidenceconsistent with prior opinions as stronger or more ef-fective (i.e., a prior attitude effect), and spend moretime arguing and dismissing evidence inconsistent withprior opinions, regardless of objective accuracy (i.e.,a disconfirmation bias).4 These biases influence the re-ception of new information and may lead individuals toreason their way to a desired conclusion. For exam-ple, consider a George W. Bush supporter who receivesinformation suggesting that the president misled votersabout the Iraq war. Given these biases, this supporter

3 We recognize that there are two (nonexclusive) competing theoriesof how party sponsorship may influence opinions. First, party spon-

sorship could work as a simple cue that people follow, with contentignored entirely. Second, sponsorship could serve as a perceptualanchor that shades the interpretation of information. We opt forthe latter approach here (see Petersen et al. n.d., for some direct evi-dence), andwe believe that some of theevidence we offer (regardingassessment of argument content) is more consistent with the moti-vated reasoning approach. That said, we recognize that our resultsdo not rule out the simple cue approach. This is not a problem per se,because our interest lies in uncovering the effects of polarization oncitizen decision making and not in isolating the precise psychologicalmechanism at work.4 We employ the term motivated reasoning, but this should beviewed as synonymous with Taber and Lodges (2006) motivatedskepticism and Lavine, Johnston, and Steenbergens (2012) parti-san perceptional screen. We also focus on information evaluationrather than information seeking (for evidence on information seek-

ing, see Druckman et al. 2012).

is likely to interpret this information as either falseor as evidence of strong leadership in times of crises.Motivated reasoning will likely lead this supporter andothers like him or her to become even more support-ive of Bush (e.g., Jacobson 2008). This same behavioralso takes place in the presence of partisan cues thatanchor reasoning (e.g., Bartels 2002; Goren, Federico,and Kittilson 2009). For instance, individuals interpret

a policy in light of existing opinions concerning thepolicys sponsor. Thus, a Democrat might view a Demo-cratic policy as effective (e.g., a new economic stimulusplan) and support it, whereas he or she would see thesame policy as less effective and perhaps even opposeit if not endorsed by Democrats or if sponsored byRepublicans (e.g., Druckman and Bolsen 2011). Sim-ilarly, Democrats (Republicans) may view economicconditions favorably during a Democratic (Republi-can) administration even if they would view the sameconditions negatively if Republicans (Democrats) werein power (e.g., Bartels 2002; Lavine, Johnston, andSteenbergen 2012).5

In short, partisan motivated reasoning theory sug-gests that partisans will view their partys frame as moreeffective than a frame not sponsored by their partyor a frame sponsored by the other party. This theoryalso suggests that partisans will more likely be movedby their own partys frame, regardless of its strength.This leads to two hypotheses. (In our hypotheses, it isless interesting to examine when an individuals ownparty offers a strong frame because in that case bothpieces of informationthe party sponsor and the framestrengthpush in the same direction.)

Hypothesis 2: When partisans receive a frame, regardless ofitsstrength, sponsoredby their party anda conflicting frame,

regardless of its strength, sponsored by the other party, theywill view their own partys frame as more effective and theother partys frame as less effective.

Hypothesis 3: When partisans receive a frame, regardless ofitsstrength, sponsoredby their party anda conflicting frame,regardless of its strength, sponsored by the other party, theywill be more likely to move in the direction of their partys

frame than in the direction of the other partys frame.6

A number of factors moderate partisan motivated rea-soning, including motivation itself. When individualsare highly motivated to form accurate opinions, theytend to focus on substance regardless of their parti-

sanship and/or prior opinions (e.g., Kunda 1990, 485;also see Nir 2011; Prior 2007). Even so, most evidenceto date suggests that, on political issues, individualsgenerally lack such motivation and instead fall back on

5 This coheres with social identity theoryindeed, motivated rea-soning should be driven by individuals desire to be loyal to andconsistent with their own group and to maximize difference with theoutgroup. Partisan groups are clearly important to political catego-rization (Nicholson 2012; Smith et al. 2005).6 It is implied that we expect perceptions of frame effectivenessto mediate the process by which the frame will influence overallattitude. Yet, we do not offer a formal prediction because, as will beclear, the nature of our designin which perceptions and attitudesare measured simultaneouslymeans that directly testing this type

of mediational prediction is not possible.

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partisan motivated reasoning when interpreting newinformation. Taber and Lodge (2006, 767) conclude,despite our best efforts to promote the even-handedtreatment of policy arguments in our studies, we findconsistent evidence of directional partisan bias. . . .Ourparticipants may have tried to be evenhanded, but theyfound it impossible to be fair-minded.

That said, one factor that does moderate partisan

reasoning is the strength of partisan identitythosewhopossess strong partisan identities aremore inclinedto base their assessments of frames entirely on theirpartisan priors. In contrast, weaker partisans are lessskewed by their identities and are more likely to re-spond to content. Lavine, Johnston, and Steenbergen(2012) present substantial evidence of this weakeningeffect, concluding that partisan ambivalence under-cuts the judgmental confidence that citizens typicallyderive from partisan cues, [and] they should turn awayfrom these perceptual anchors and pay more atten-tion to the particulars (chapter 5: 2; also see Druck-man, Fein, and Leeper 2012; Redlawsk 2002; Taber andLodge 2006).

The evidence presented by Lavine, Johnston, andSteenbergen (2012) suggests that, when a stimulusprompts partisan ambivalence, motivated reasoningshould vitiate and a focus on the substance of theframe should increase. The stimulus we focus on iselite partisan polarization (as mentioned, elite polar-ization is a measurement concept distinct from citizenpolarization; see Fiorina and Abrams 2008). We fol-low convention and define elite polarization as havingtwo components: the ideological distance betweenthe parties, and the ideological homogeneity of eachparty (Levendusky 2010, 118). As party elites polar-ize and that polarization is relayed to citizens, partisans

should become less ambivalent about (i.e., more sureof) their own party identity. This is the type of dynamicuncovered by Iyengar, Sood, and Lelkes (2012) whofind that negative campaigning between parties, whichstems from increased polarization, is an especially im-portant contextual factor that heightens the salience ofpartisan identity. Similarly, Dancey and Goren (2010,686) explain, When partisan elites debate an issueand the news media cover it, partisan predispositionsare activated in the minds of citizens and subsequentlyconstrain their policy preferences. Nicholson (2012,52, 55) states, In the American political system, onespolitical identity typically means ones partisan identity(see Green, Palmquist, and Schickler 2002), especiallyin an era of partisan polarization. . .. In an environmentcharacterized by intergroup disagreement, the desireto seek difference with the outgroup will likely bestrong.7 And Levendusky (2010, 11415) adds,Whenelites are polarized, they send voters clearer signalsabout where they stand on the issues of the day.. . .

7 Slothuus and de Vreese (2010, 637) state, In contrast to politicalconsensus, party conflict signals that partisan values are at stake andemphasizes differences between parties. In such conflict situations,citizens partisanship should to be more salient to them and hencemore likely be used in judging the applicability of framings of theissue.

As voters follow these party cues on multiple issues,they begin to hold more consistent attitudes. In sum,under conditions of polarization, partisan identifica-tion becomes stronger and less ambivalent, leading toincreased motivated reasoning (and stronger party cueeffects); see Nicholson (2012, 545) for further psycho-logical discussion.8 We should thus see stronger moti-vated reasoning effects in the polarized conditions than

in the non-polarized environment.

Hypothesis 4:In a polarized environment, when partisansreceive a frame, regardless of its strength, sponsored bytheir party, anda conflicting frame, regardless of itsstrength,

sponsored by the other party, they will view their own partysframe as more effective and the other partys frame as lesseffectiveto a greater extent than they do in a non-polarizedenvironment (and/or a nonparty cue environment).

Hypothesis 5: When partisans receive a frame, regardless ofitsstrength, sponsored by their party anda conflicting frame,regardless of its strength, sponsored by the other party, theywill be more likely to move in the direction of their partys

frame than in the direction of the other partys frameto agreater extent than they do in a non-polarized environment(and/or a nonparty cue environment).9,10

Our final hypothesis concerns the importance that a re-spondent attributes to his or her updated opinion afterreceiving the frame. When individuals engage in moti-vated reasoning, their goal is to confirm an opinion theyalready hold (Taber and Lodge 2006). They thereforeview new information as bolstering their prior opinion,and this added evidence boosts the importance of thatopinion to them (e.g., via increased confidence in theopinion). In contrast, when acting against a prior belief(e.g., generated by the partisan perceptional screen),

people may become unsure about what to think andthus view the opinion as less personally important (e.g.,Brader 2006, chaps. 45). Our expectation of increasedattitude importance with partisan motivated reasoningcoheres with social psychological work in which socialidentification is seen as one of the antecedents of atti-tude importance (Smith et al. 2005, 168; Wyer 2010).Specifically, Smith et al. (2005, 168) report that whenindividuals perceived that an issue was highly relevantto the group under consideration, they reported thattheir own attitudes were more personally important.

8 We build on Lavine, Johnston, and Steenbergen (2012) given their

compelling evidence regarding attitude ambivalence; however, intheory, other aspects of partisan identity can be affected via polar-ization (e.g., importance of that identity, relevance of that identity,etc.).9 We again avoid a formal mediational prediction.10 We previously noted that our predictions could be consistent witha theory of partisan cue taking rather than partisan motivated rea-soning. In this regard, it could be that the existence of polarizationindicatesthat theparties feelmore strongly about theissue(are morecertain about their positions). This kind of certainty then makes thecue stronger because the source is more certain. We thank GabeLenz for this point (April 17, 2011, personal communication). Asmentioned, although we believe our motivated reasoning approachoffers a fuller, more compelling explanation, it may be that theprocess at work is cue taking, yet that does not alter our ultimatesubstantive conclusions.

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Hypothesis 6: Partisans will view their opinions as increas-ingly important when receiving a frame with their parti-

san sponsor (versus a frame without their partisan spon-sor) and, even more so, when this occurs in polarizedconditions.11

EXPERIMENTAL TESTS OF PARTISANPOLARIZATION AND FRAMING

We conducted two experiments to test our hypothesesvia the internet, with a sample drawn to be representa-tive of the U.S. population, during the spring of 2011. 12

Both experiments appeared on the same survey.One concern in any experiment concerning parti-

sanship is that asking about party identification primesrespondents to base attitudes on that identity. We werethusfortunate that our survey experiments avoided thisproblem by coming as part of a panel that started in thesummer of 2010. Respondents reported their partisanidentification by responding to the item, Generallyspeaking, which of the options on the scale below best

describes your party identification? on a 7-point fullylabeled scale from strong Democrat to strong Repub-lican. They also reported other demographic informa-tion on this prior wave.13

We focused our analyses on partisans; that is, indi-viduals identifying with or leaning toward either party(N= 646). As with Levenduskys (2010, 120) experi-ment on partisan polarization, we excluded pure inde-pendents (also see, e.g., Bullock 2011). This approachis typical because independent leaners are similar topartisans in their vote choice and policy opinions (e.g.,Lascher and Korey 2011). After excluding indepen-dents, our sample consisted of 53% Democrats and47% Republicans.

We next describe our experimental design, dis-cussing the issues used in the experiments, the frameswe employed, our polarization manipulation, our pre-cise experimental conditions, and our main dependentmeasures.

11 We recognize that importance, like our aforementioned ambiva-lence construct, is a dimension of attitude strength. As Visser, Bizer,and Krosnick (2006) make clear, different types of attitude strengthare relevant in distinct situations and at varying points in the reason-ingprocess. It isfor this reasonthatwe lookedat differentdimensionsand did not attempt to envelope them under a general rubric of

strength.12 We contractedwith a survey research company (Bovitz Inc.) to col-lect thedata.The samplewas drawn from a panel of respondents whohad opted in to complete online surveys. The panel was originallydeveloped based on a random-digit-dial (RDD) telephone survey,where to enter the panel a respondent needed to have access to theinternet; in this sense, it is a nonprobability sample in thesame wayasthose taken by firms such as Polimetrix are nonprobability samples.The panel has continued to grow based on ongoing RDD recruitingand referrals. From the panel, which has approximately 1 millionmembers, a given sampleis drawn using a matching algorithm (basedon likely response rates) to ensure that those screened to qualify forthe survey constitute a sample that demographically represents theUnited States.13 Demographics of the sample are available from the authors; 45%of t1 participants responded at t2, which is a fairly standard rate.

Policy Issues

One experiment focused on an energy policy proposal:drilling for oil and gas. The second experiment ex-amined immigration policy, specifically the DREAMActwhich stands for the Development, Relief, andEducation for Alien Minors Act. These two issuesshare several features that make them well suited fortesting our hypotheses. First, both received attention inpolicy debates in the United States prior to our studyand thus are meaningful and relevant issues. Althoughdrilling for oil in the ocean began in the late 1800sand became widely used in the mid-twentieth centurythe issue received substantial attention in U.S. politicsduring 2010. In March of that year, President Obamaannounced that the United States would allow drillingfor oil and gas off the Atlantic Coast and in the east-ern Gulf of Mexico. He suggested it was necessary tosustain economic growth. Then, on April 20, 2010, theDeepwater Horizon oil spill, the worst offshore oil spillin U.S. history, occurred in the Gulf of Mexico. Conse-quently, the Obama administration shifted policy and

decided that it would not open up new areas of the east-ern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard to drilling, at least forseven years. Similarly, the DREAM Act, a legislativeproposal first introduced in the U.S. Senate in 2001, hasbeen regularly debated in the U.S. Congress and severalstate legislatures over the last decade. Although thebill has been proposed in various forms, its core is thecreation of a pathway to citizenship for undocumentedimmigrants living in the United States, provided theyentered the United States before age 16, graduatedfrom high school, have good moral character, andhave completed at least two years of college or servedat least two years in the U.S. military.14

Second, we suspect that, although these issues aretopically relevant, the publics opinions on them arenot crystallized and, indeed, are somewhat conflicted.As we discuss later in further detail, this conflict stemsfrom the existence of many competing considerationson each issue (Krauss and Broder 2012). As with mostother work, we opted for such conflict becauseit meansthere is room for movement in our experiments (see,e.g., Chong and Druckman 2010, 667; Druckman andLeeper 2012b; Levendusky 2010, 11920; Nicholson2011; Slothuus 2011).

Third, it was important that we chose issues onwhich the parties do not consistently hold dramaticallydifferent positions.15 Doing so allows our experimen-

tal prompts to shape the perceived level of partisan

14 In June 2012, President Obama enacted elements of this proposalthrough an executive order that halted the deportation of undocu-mented immigrants eligible for the DREAM Act.15 We also chose issues that were not owned by either party toensure each party had roughly equivalent credibility in discussing anissue. Pew data asking which party does a better job at handing agiven issue show that, in September 2010, respondents gaveRepubli-cans an advantage on immigration with 39% citing the Republicans,32% citing the Democrats, and the others saying both, neither, ordont know. For the question about which party does a better jobhandling energy, which was asked in March 2011, there is a nearsplit, with 42% saying the Democrats could do a better job and 37%favoring the Republicans (Pew Research Center 2010; 2011).

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disagreement (i.e., polarization) on these issues. Al-though Republicans in Congress tend to favor allow-ing drilling and Democrats in Congress tend to op-pose drilling, the partisan divide is often not stark,and members of each party can typically be foundon each side of the issue (e.g., often depending ongeography; for example, Virginia Democratic Sena-tor Mark Warner strongly supports offshore drilling).

Like elites, the public is split on drilling and is notoverly driven by partisan predications (Bolsen andCook 2008). The various versions of the DREAM Act,meanwhile, have been cosponsored and supported byboth Democrats and Republicans, although it is theDemocrats at the elite level who more consistentlyoffer support. Partisan DREAM Act support at themass level is even more mixed than on drilling. Un-surprisingly, the two issues on which we focused havebeen used in prior work that touches on polarization(e.g., Levendusky 2010, on drilling; Nicholson 2012, onimmigration).

That said, we recognize that these are issues onwhich the parties are likely stereotypically connectedwith given positions, albeit perhaps not strong stereo-types. In this initial foray, we opted not to vary is-sues in such a way that the parties were either morestrongly connected to particular issues or took evenmore muddled positionsbut we recognize that suchissue-position variance is a fruitful avenue for futurework.

Issue Frames

Our next task was to select the frames on each issue.We identified the relevant arguments/frames in publicdebate through a content analysis of media coverage

(see Peterson 2011) and examination of prior workon both issues (e.g., Bolsen and Cook 2008; Smith2002) We selected seven prominent frames for eachissue.16 Next, we presented 138 nonstudent participants(who were not in the main experiment) with sequen-tial issue descriptions along with brief depictions ofthe frames/arguments. As with prior work, we askedrespondents to evaluate the direction and strengthof frames on each policy issue (on 7-point scalesranging from definitely opposed to definitely support-ive, and from definitely not effective to definitelyeffective).

Full details of the pretest results are available from

the authors; in theend, weselected four frames for eachissue: a strong and weak pro frame (e.g., for drilling, theDREAM Act) and a strong and weak con frame (e.g.,opposed to drilling, the DREAM Act). We display ourchoices in Tables 1a and 1b. For drilling, our strong-pro frame emphasized the economic benefits of the

16 The drilling frames included ones that emphasized the conse-quences for the economy, foreign dependence, national security,technological development, the ecosystem, regulatory issues, andworker and maritime life. The DREAM frames included ones thatemphasized the impact on the beneficiaries, public support, fairness,economic consequences, impact on legal immigrants, surroundingpolitics, and systematic consequences.

TABLE 1a. Drilling Frames

Supportive (Pro) Opposed (Con)

Strong Economic benefits Worker and maritimelife

Weak Technological Regulationdevelopments

TABLE 1b. DREAM Act Frames

Supportive (Pro) Opposed (Con)

Strong Beneficiaries Overburdeningthe system

Weak Public support Politics

practice, including how drilling will increase the oilsupply, leading to lower gas prices and the creation ofemployment opportunities. In contrast, our weak-proframe suggested that drilling leads to new technolog-ical developments (e.g., sound migration techniques)that sometimes have more general applications beyonddrilling. On the con side, our strong drilling framefocused on the dangers of drilling for workers andmaritime life, whereas our weak-con frame focused onthe regulation that would come with drilling throughgovernment oversight of the process.

For the DREAM Act issue, as displayed in Table 1b,our strong-pro frame emphasized how the young ben-eficiaries would be offered many opportunities (e.g.,

to go on to become doctors, teachers, and the like),whereas the weak-pro frame focused on public sup-port for the act (e.g., many segments of the publicsupport the DREAM Act). On the con side, our strongframe concernedoverburdeningthe systemdue to anincrease in illegal immigration (and demands on gov-ernment services) if the DREAM Act passed, whereasthe weak frame put weight on the politics underlyingthe policys design.

For each of our two issues, pretest respondents per-ceived each pro frame to be significantly more support-ive on the issue than each of the con frames. Moreover,although pretest respondents viewedeach strong frameas significantly more effective than each weak frame,they did not see the two strong frames as significantlydifferent from one another in terms of strength (norwere the weak frames statistically distinct from oneanother in terms of ineffectiveness). Thus, we areconfident that, for each issue, our pro (con) frames dif-fered from one another only in terms of strength (andnot direction) and our strong (weak) frames differedfrom one another only in terms of direction (and notstrength). Also, note that on both issues, we did notobserve partisan differences in the assessments of theframes.

As we discuss, assigned respondents received a single(strong or weak) pro frame on each issue and a single

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(strong or weak) con frame on each issue.17 Beforefurther describing the conditions, however, we turn tothe other main factor in our study: partisan cues andpolarization.

Partisan Cues and Polarization

Our hypotheses offer distinct predictions about the

impact of strong and weak frames depending on thepresence of party cues and the degree of polarization.Of course, a critical baseline is how respondents re-act to the frames sans partisan endorsements. For thisreason, one set of conditions excluded any reference topolitical parties (i.e., no party cues were present). Theseconditions allow us to test Hypothesis 1 about reactionsto basic frames and serve as a baseline against which toassess the impact of the partisan cues and informationabout polarization provided in the other conditions.

Two points are relevant for our operationalizationof partisan endorsements and polarization. First, wefollowed Levendusky (2010) in offering multiple com-

peting party cues in all caseswe never offered a framethat receives a party endorsement against anotherframe sans a party endorsement. This approach is real-istic given that each party adopts a position and offersan argument/frame on most issues. It also does not limitour ability to test our hypotheses. Second, also as didLevendusky (2010), we had the parties maintain singlepositions across all conditions. That is, the Democratsalways opposed drilling and endorsed the DREAMActalbeit using different frameswhereas the Repub-licans always did the reverse. This is realistic giventhe parties typical positions (also see Nicholson2012). Our wording stated, for example, Democrats inCongress tend to favor . . . and Republicans in Congress

tend to oppose. We recognized the advantage thatwould come with having parties flip to unconventionalpositions (see, e.g., Slothuus 2011), but we decided notto vary party positions because this approach allowedfor a feasible number of conditions (without varyingparty positions our design still included 13 experimen-tal conditions). More importantly, maintaining consis-tent party endorsements did not constrain our abilityto assess our key hypotheses about the impact of partyendorsements and polarization (for a similar argument,see Levendusky 2010). In sum, respondents received,on each issue, a weak or strong pro frameand a weakor strong con frame. These frameseithercame with no

party endorsementsorwith a party endorsement suchthat the pro (con) drilling frame was always endorsedby Republicans (Democrats) whereas the pro (con)DREAM frame was always endorsed by Democrats(Republicans).

The second aspect of our manipulation varied thelevel of elite polarization. We again followed Leven-dusky (2010, 117) and told respondents that the parti-san elites wereeithermoderateorpolarized (i.e., par-

17 Our inclusion of a limited number of frames in the experimentaldesignis realistic because content analyses showthat competing sidesin policy debates tend to restrict their attention to very few frameson each side (Chong and Druckman 2011; Hanggli and Kriesi 2010).

ties were far apart and homogeneous).18 In the non-polarized or moderate conditions, we told participantsthat the partisan divide is not stark as the parties arenot too far apart and that members of each party canbe found on both sides of the issue. In contrast, thepolarized stimulus stated that the partisan divide isstark as the parties are far apart and most membersof each party are on the same side as the rest of their

party (thereby capturing the two aforementioned di-mensions of elite polarization).19

Our full set of conditions included 13 differentscenarios with each respondent randomly assigned toone. The first was a control group (condition 1) that an-swered the dependent measures, described later, with-out receiving any other information. We display the 12treatment conditions in Table 2 (with the cells reportingthe Ns for each issue;the first Nis for the drilling issue).The columns list the mix of frames encountered by arespondent in a given conditionas explained, this mixalways involved one pro and one con frame, of varyingstrengths. The rows report the nature of the partisan en-dorsement and the specific endorsement for each issue(in the first column of each row). The frames used in theconditions reported in the first row made no referenceto party. The conditions in the second row providedpartisan endorsements, but these endorsements werepreceded by the previously described non-polarizedprompt. The conditions in the final row includedendorsements along with the polarized scenario. Toget a sense of the wording of a specific condition,consider Condition 10 (polarized party endorsements,two strong frames), for the drilling issue, which reads,

There has been a lot of recent discussion about whether toallow drilling for oil and gas off the Atlantic Coast and in

the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Republicans in Congress tend to favor drilling andDemocrats in Congress tend to oppose drilling. Moreover,

18 As with Levendusky (2010), we did not include conditions withparty cues and no polarization manipulation. Such conditions wouldhave allowed us to infer about the natural state of the world (e.g.,closer to our polarization scenario or non-polarization scenario).Yet,it would have expanded the number of conditions to 17, and we sus-pect any such inferences would have limited time and issue general-izability. Our ultimate interest is in polarization versus non-polarizedsettings, andone canassess independently theextentto which a giventime/issue approaches one or the other (see Slothuus 2011).19 We thus operationalized polarization in a different way than did

Levendusky, who presented respondents with a picture of the issuepositions of members of Congress as being either polarized or not.There are two reasons for our approach. First, we found that wordsmore accurately mimic the type of information respondents mayreceive(e.g., viaa media report). Second, such ecological validity wasimportant in our case because we suspect such information promptsa distinct processing approach. The polarization text may stimulatecitizens to engage in directional processing to be consistent withfellow partisans (for a similar approach in a distinct domain, seeBoiney, Kennedy, and Nye 1997, 8). Using the non-polarized textrelieves partisans of such a directional goal and may generate morememory search (see Redlawsk 2002). To be clear, we did not optfor these manipulations so as to explicitly skew the likely results inthe direction of particular types of processing; rather, we wanted tomost accurately mimic the type of information encountered, whichwe believe has precise processing implications.

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TABLE 2. Experimental Conditions

Pro Strong Pro Strong Pro Weak Pro WeakFrame Frame Frame Frame

Con Strong Con Weak Con Strong Con WeakFrame Frame Frame Frame

No-party Endorsements (2) (3) (4) (5)

N (drilling) = 48 N = 55 N = 51 N = 46N (DREAM) = 46 N = 55 N = 49 N = 50Non-Polarized Party (6) (7) (8) (9)Endorsements N = 51 N = 49 N = 50 N = 51

For drilling N = 51 N = 44 N = 56 N = 50Rep= ProDem= Con

For DREAMRep= ConDem= Pro

Polarized Party (10) (11) (12) (13)Endorsements N = 54 N = 49 N = 45 N = 50

For drilling N = 52 N = 52 N = 50 N = 44Rep= ProDem= Con

For DREAMRep= ConDem= Pro

Note: Number of cases vary across issues because of non-response. Both experimentsincluded a control condition (1) (N= 47) in which respondents received only a brief descriptionof each policy before answering the dependent variables.

the partisan divide is stark as the parties are far apart.Also, not only do Republicans tend to be in favor andDemocrats opposed, but most members of each party areon the same side as the rest of their party.

The main argument for those in favor of drilling is thatdrilling increases our oil supply, which leads to lower gasprices. It also generates employment opportunities anddevelopment.

The main argument for those opposed to drilling is thatworkers are required to learn new skills in order to protectthemselves against the dangers of drilling. Marine life alsomust adapt to survive in the face of site construction anddrilling.

To see how polarization and frame strength varied be-

tween conditions, compare this with Condition 7 (non-polarized party endorsements, strong pro frame, weakcon frame) on the same issue, which reads,

There has been a lot of recent discussion about whether toallow drilling for oil and gas off the Atlantic Coast and inthe eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Republicans in Congress tend to favor drilling andDemocrats in Congress tend to oppose drilling. However,the partisan divide is not stark as the parties are not toofar apart. Also, while Republicans tend to be in favor andDemocrats opposed, members of each party can be foundon both sides of the issue.

The main argument for those in favor of drilling is thatdrilling increases our oil supply, which leads to lower gasprices. It also generates employment opportunities anddevelopment.

The main argument for those opposed to drilling is thatgovernment regulators oversee the drilling. These regula-tory agencies recently have expressed being overwhelmedby oversight tasks.

Stimuli in Conditions 25 made no reference to partiesand left out the paragraph on party endorsements. Wepurposely avoided overly blunt party cues by decou-pling the cues from the arguments. Hence, we pre-sented party cues and frames as potentially compet-ing information to illuminate what information peopleuse. We also provided some substantive information inthe frames rather than strict endorsements because de-tailed information is important when studying relativepartisan cue effects (Bullock 2011). The full wordingof the other conditions appears in Appendix A.

We assigned all participants to conditions on bothissues, and they always received information aboutdrilling first. Participants were also assigned to thesame conditions on each issue, because we worried thatvarying the extent of polarization would seem disori-enting (see Slothuus 2011) and would also increase thelikelihood of experimental spillover effects (Transue,Lee, and Aldrich 2009, 160).20

20 As we show, the dynamics are very similar acrossissues, andhencethere is little reason to assume/believe that the accumulation of

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Measures

We included appropriate measures to test each of ourhypotheses, as well as measures for variables, shown inprior work to affect energy or immigration attitudes. Inwhat follows, we do not report results with these othervariables, because they do not affect our main results;suffice it to say that those results echo prior work onenergy and immigration.21

Our main dependent variables involved support fordrilling and support for the DREAM Act, and we usedquestion wordings from prior national surveys on theseissues. The drilling item asked, Giventhis information,to what extent do you oppose or support drilling for oiland gas off the Atlantic Coast and in the eastern Gulfof Mexico?, with answers on a fully labeled 1 to 7 scaleranging from strongly oppose to strongly support. TheDREAM Act support variable similarly asked (withan analogous 7-point scale), Given this information,to what extent do you oppose or support the DREAMAct? These measures allowed us to test Hypotheses 1,3, and 5 concerning the relative impact of issue frames,

partisan cues, and polarization on overall opinion. Allthe DREAM Act measures came after the DREAMAct treatments, which followed the drilling treatmentsand measures.

Testing Hypotheses 2 and 4 required a measureasking respondents to assess the effectiveness of theframes to which they were exposed. We followed oth-ers (e.g., Druckman and Bolsen 2011) and asked, foreach issue, How effective or ineffective did you findthe main argument opposedto drilling [the DREAMAct]? with response options offered on a 1 to 7 scaleranging from completely ineffective to completely ef-fective. We then asked, using an analogous scale, Howeffective or ineffective did you find the main argumentin favorof drilling [the DREAM Act]?22

Finally, to test Hypothesis 6 about opinion impor-tance, we asked respondents, after they reported theiroverall support opinions for each issue, this question:How important to you is your opinion about drilling[toward the DREAM Act] (e.g., how strongly do youfeel about your opinion)? As with the other questions,respondents could provide an answer on a 1 to 7 scalefrom extremely unimportant to extremely important(see Visser et al. 2006).

partisan stimulus over time reinforced its effects (i.e., if that wouldhave beenthe case, partisan differencesshould increase in magnitude

to the second experiment).21 For example, Republicans were more supportive of drilling, andDemocrats were more supportive of the DREAM Act. Other mea-sured variables include basic demographics as well as ideology,relevant values (e.g., environmental values or ethnocentrism), na-tional economic retrospective evaluations, media use, general po-litical knowledge, and domain-specific knowledge. Full details areavailable from the authors.22 We recognize that, as with others (e.g., Druckman and Bolsen2011; Taber and Lodge 2006) who have taken similar approachesof asking overall opinion and argument effectiveness questions intandem, we risk the possibility of contamination. That said, ourpretest results offer additional evidence on frame strength from adistinct sample, and the problem is less severe insofar as we do notexplore mediational processes that would directly make the possibleconfound relevant.

RESULTS

We first present the results regarding overall supportfor drilling and the DREAM Act (i.e., Hypotheses 1, 3,5) by charting thepercentage change in opinion, by con-dition, relative to the control group (which answeredthe two issue support questions without encounteringother information). The means and standard deviationsfor each condition appear in Appendix B (Tables B.1and B.2). Our approach is appropriate because weposited the control group as a baseline for our hy-potheses (at least implicitly). We also compare acrosstreatment conditions, when necessary, to assess specifichypotheses. Finally, because our results on both issuesare very similar to one another, we present them intandemthat is, we go through each hypothesis on bothissues rather than sequentially presenting results on theissues.23

Figures 13 present the change in opinion acrosseach of our 12 treatment conditions (panel A displaysdrilling results and panel B displays DREAM Act re-sults; Stg indicates strong frames and Wk indicates

weak frames). In each figure, we separate Democratand Republican respondents to detect the differenteffects of party endorsements hypothesized for eachset of partisans. Figure 1 presents results for the condi-tions that did not include party endorsements. It allowsus to test Hypothesis 1 that frames of equal strengthshould cancel, but that strong frames overwhelm weakframes. This is exactly what we found on both issues.For example, Figure 1a shows that, for both types ofpartisans, exposure to the pro-strong and con-strongframes (Condition 2) did not cause a significant changein opinion, with opinions only moving slightly morethan 2% for Democrats and about 5% for Republicans(significance levels are indicated with asterisks). Thesame was true with pro-weak and con-weak exposure(Condition 5). Yet, when the pro frame was strong(economic benefits) and the con frame was weak (reg-ulation; Condition 3), opinions for both Democrats andRepublicans became dramatically more supportive. Inother words, the strong economic argument, whenpitted against the weak regulation frame, increasedsupport for drilling by nearly 19% among Democratsand 14% among Republicans. Analogously, opinionsmoved significantly in the other direction when the proframe was weak (technological developments) and the

23 We included a manipulation check to ensure that participants reg-istered the parties endorsements (i.e., we asked respondents, towardthe end of the survey, if they recalled the pro and con positions ofthe parties on each issue). On the drilling issue, on average 89%of participants correctly recalled the pro and con positions of theparties (ranging from 85% to 94% across the eight conditions withparty cues), and on the immigration issue 87% correctly recalledparty positions. We also found no significant difference in recallaccuracy based on whether therespondent wasin a polarized or non-polarized condition. We further asked respondents across conditionsthe extent to which they thought the parties were polarized, and theresults confirmed that our polarization conditions prompted signif-icantly higher perceptions of polarization. Finally, we asked peopleto report the importance of their party identification and foundsignificantly higher scores in the polarization conditions, suggestingthat polarization did strengthen partisan identification.

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FIGURE 1a. Drilling Support, No Party Cues

2.2%

18.8%***

-10.8%**

5.2%4.9%

14.0%**

-10.4%*

3.5%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Pro-Stg -

Con-Stg (2)

Pro-Stg -

Con-Wk (3)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Stg (4)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Wk (5)

Shii

nSupport

(relavetocontrol)

Party Condion

Democrac

Respondents

Republican

Respondents ***p.01; **p.05; *p.10, one-tailed

FIGURE 1b. DREAM Act Support, No Party Cues

-3.5%

14.8%**

-14.0%**

11.1%

-0.3%

17.4%**

-20.1%**

-4.6%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Pro-Stg -

Con-Stg (2)

Pro-Stg -

Con-Wk (3)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Stg (4)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Wk (5)

Shii

nSupport

(relavetocontrol)

Party Condion

Democrac

Respondents

Republican


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FIGURE 2a. Drilling Support, Non-Polarized Party Cues (Republicans Pro, Democrats Con)

-5.7%

15.2%**

-10.1%*

-2.8%

10.6%**

14.4%**

-10.7%*

10.2%*

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Pro-Stg -

Con-Stg (6)

Pro-Stg -

Con-Wk (7)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Stg (8)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Wk (9)

Shii

n

Support

(relavetocontrol)

Party Condion

Democrac

Respondents

Republican


con one was strong (worker and maritime life; Condi-tion 4). We found virtually identical results in Figure 1bon the DREAM Act. For example, on receiving thepro-strong beneficiaries frame along with the weak-con politics frame (Condition 3), Democratic supportincreased by nearly 15%, whereas Republican supportgrew by more than 17%. Yet when pitted against the

strong-con overburdening the system frame (Condi-tion 2), neither partisan group displayed a significantchange.24

In sum, in all eight instances featuring opposingframes of unequal strength, frames moved opinionsignificantly in the expected directions (toward thepositions supported by the stronger frame), whereasnone of the frames in the conditions including opposingframes of equal strength demonstrated significant ef-fects on opinion. Moreover, when the opposing framespushed opinions in opposite directions, the effects werelarge, with opinion differences typically in the range of25 percentage points or more between pro and conframes (i.e., a quarter of the opinion scale). This isstrong support for Hypothesis 1, in line with Chongand Druckman (2007) and Druckman (2010). Also, theresults are robust among both Democrats and Repub-licans despite their partisan inclinations in differentdirections. These results provide a baseline for inves-tigating how the influence of substantive informationchanges once policy debates also include party cues ex-plicitly indicating where the parties stand on the issue.

24 The weak-weak mix on the DREAM Act comes close to havingthepro frame winout among Democrats, although it is notsignificantat the .1 level, one tailed.

Opinion dynamics changed when respondents re-ceived party endorsement information; how theychange depended substantially on whether polariza-tion is low or high. Figure 2 presents results from thecondition where respondents are informed that polar-ization is low. Recall that, for drilling, Republicans en-dorsed the pro frame, whereas Democrats endorsed the

con frame. For the DREAM Act, Democrats pushedthe pro position and Republicans the con. We foundmixed support for Hypothesis 3. Specifically, strongarguments, when paired with weak arguments, out-performed party endorsements (Conditions 7 and 8).On drilling, for example, Democratic respondents whoreceived the strong-pro economic argument endorsedby Republicans and the weak-con regulation frame en-dorsed by the Democrats became more supportive ofdrilling by 15%. In other words, the party endorsementfell flat and the substance won out. The same was truefor Republicans when they received the Democrati-cally endorsed strong-con frame of worker and mar-itime life (Condition 8)they followed this by becom-

ing nearly 11% less supportive, despite also receivingthe Republican-endorsed weak-pro frame (technolog-ical developments). We saw similar dynamics on theDREAM Act.When arguments variedin strength, sub-stance, not party endorsements, carried the day. Thispartially contradicted the suggestion from Hypothesis3 that partisan motivated reasoning will occur through-out both the low- and high-polarizations conditions.

However, Hypothesis 3 was fully supported in theconditions containing equal-strength arguments. Par-tisans exposed to equally strong or weak frames(Conditions 6 and 9) turned to party endorsementsfor guidance. On drilling, for example, Republican

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FIGURE 2b. DREAM Act Support, Non-Polarized Party Cues (Democrats Pro, Republicans Con)

11.1%

26.1%***

-16.1%**

17.7%**

-11.8%*

12.6%*

-19.6%***

-8.5%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Pro-Stg -

Con-Stg (6)

Pro-Stg -

Con-Wk (7)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Stg (8)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Wk (9)

Shii

nSupport

(relavetocontro

l)

Party Condion

Democrac

Respondents

Republican


participants encountering the strong-pro economicframe endorsed by Republicans, as well as the strong-con frame worker and maritime life frame fromDemocrats (Condition 6), followed the Republican en-dorsement and became more than 10% more support-ive. The same type of dynamic occurred when bothdrilling frames were weak as well as on analogousDREAM Act conditionsalthough these movementsdid not always reach levels of conventional statisticalsignificance.

The results from the non-polarized conditions sug-gest that cues become important when substantive in-formation is inconclusive as to which policy to support.When arguments/frames are of unequal strength, cit-izens follow the direction of the stronger argument.Only when the arguments are equally strong do theyturn to party cues to find their way. Individuals appearto follow a lexicographical reasoning process where, ifthe first information considered is not decisive, then asecond piece of information is turned to for help (e.g.,Payne, Bettman, and Johnson 1993, 26). It is notable,

however, that the first piece of relevant information,under conditions of low polarization, is the argumentand not the party cue. This echoes Bullock (2011)and Nicholson (2011) in that substance can overwhelmparty cues.25

This is notthe case, however, under conditions of po-larization. As Figure 3 demonstrates, partisans ignore

25 Interestingly, in the cases with equal-strength frames, Republicanssignificantly followed cues three of four times (Conditions 6 and9 ondrilling and Condition 6 on the DREAM Act), whereas Democratsonlydid soone offourtimes(Condition 9 onthe DREAMAct). Thisfinding suggests stronger Republican cue effects in non-polarizedconditions.

the substance of the frame and follow their party underconditions of polarization. Consider, once more, thecase of drilling.Democrats whoreceived the strong-proeconomic frame, endorsed by the Republican Party,and the weak-con regulation frame, endorsed by theDemocratic Party (Condition 11), grew nearly 13% lesssupportive of drilling for oil. That is, they ignored thestronger substance and responded to party cues. Thissharply contrasted with the behavior of similar Demo-cratic partisans facing the same set of arguments in anon-polarized environment. There, Democrats movedtoward the stronger frame, despite a Republican en-dorsement, and became 15% more supportive (seeCondition 7 in Figure 2a). Comparing these two condi-tions shows a 28% swing in opinion among Democraticrespondents due to polarization. We could go throughmany other examples evident in Figure 3, but the trendstands across all conditions on both issues: In a polar-ized partisan environment, partisan motivated reason-ing overwhelms substance. These results largely con-firm Hypothesis 5; however, they do not fully support

it, because the hypothesis predicted greater partisaneffects in the polarized than in the non-polarized condi-tions and we found that partisan effects are sometimessimilar across these conditions when the arguments areof equal quality.26

26 Technically, confirmation of Hypothesis 5 requires formal com-parisons of opinion differencesbetween non-polarized and polarizedmatched conditions (e.g., 6 and 10). When opinion flipped from proto con or vice versa between conditions (e.g., Democrats betweenConditions 7 and 11 and Republicans between Conditions 8 and 12on drilling), it is plainly obvious that polarization moved opinionssignificantly. However, in situations where we expect polarization tofurther move opinion in a given direction (e.g., Democrats between

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FIGURE 3a. Drilling Support, Polarized Party Cues (Republicans Pro, Democrats Con)

-16.7%**

-12.8%*

-18.1%***

-9.6%*

12.7%**

16.0%***

11.8%**

17.6%***

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Pro-Stg -

Con-Stg (10)

Pro-Stg -

Con-Wk (11)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Stg (12)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Wk (13)

Shii

n

Support

(relavetocontro

l)

Party Condion

Democrac

Respondents

Republican


FIGURE 3b. DREAM Act Support, Polarized Party Cues (Democrats Pro, Republicans Con)

17.2%** 16.3%** 15.9%** 17.6%**

-18.4%*** -19.2%***-21.7%***

-24.3%***

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Pro-Stg -

Con-Stg (10)

Pro-Stg -

Con-Wk (11)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Stg (12)

Pro-Wk -

Con-Wk (13)

Shii

n

Support

(relavetocontrol)

Party Condion

Democrac

Respondents

Republican


Conditions 8 and 12 or Republicans between Conditions 9 and 13on drilling), we did not always find opinion differences large enoughto be statistically significant. Thus, among Democrats on drillingwe found significant differences in opinion between Conditions 6and 10 (p .10; one-tailed) but not between Conditions 8 and 12

(p .13) or 9 and 13 (p .13). Likewise, among Republicans, wefound a significant difference in opinion between Conditions 9 and13 (p .10) but not between Conditions6 and 10 or7 and 11. Turningto the DREAM Act, we sawsignificant further movement in opinionamong Republicans between Conditions 9 and 13 (p < .05), but notin the other relevant comparisons.

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TABLE 3a. Democratic Evaluations of Drilling Frames

Frames (Condition) Cues Pro Frame Con Frame Difference N

Pro-Stg Con-Stg (2) No Parties 4.26(std. dev. = 1.72)

4.37(1.31)

0.11(2.69)

27

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (3) No Parties 4.68(1.58)

3.39(1.62)

1.29

(2.66)38

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (4) No Parties 3.30(1.23) 4.89(1.48)1.59

(2.22) 27

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (5) No Parties 3.50(1.45)

3.27(1.76)

0.23(2.34)

26

Pro-Stg Con-Stg (6) Non-Polarized 4.15(1.19)

4.46(1.30)

0.31(2.19)

26

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (7) Non-Polarized 4.44(1.58)

3.74(1.48)

0.70

(2.54)27

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (8) Non-Polarized 3.73(1.66)

4.80(1.54)

1.07

(2.88)30

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (9) Non-Polarized 3.60(1.12)

3.68(1.18)

0.08(1.47)

25

Pro-Stg Con-Stg (10) Polarized 3.65(1.50)

4.96(1.30)

1.30

(2.38)23

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (11) Polarized 3.63

(2.01)

4.89

(1.45)

1.26

(3.18)

19

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (12) Polarized 3.52(1.53)

4.92(1.29)

1.40

(2.08)25

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (13) Polarized 3.48(1.48)

4.79(1.57)

1.31

(2.16)29

p .01; p .05; p .10 for one-tailed tests (within-condition differences).

Overall, our results can be summarized as follows:

When presented with opposing frames of the samestrength (with no party endorsements), individu-als opinions are not affected.

When presented with opposing frames of differingstrength (with no party endorsements), individu-als opinions move only in the direction of thestrong frame.

Under conditions of low polarization:

when presented with opposing frames of dif-ferent strength (e.g., onestrongand one weak),endorsed by different parties, partisans opin-ions move only in the direction of the strongframe regardless of the party endorsements.In this case, substance outweighs partisan cues(see Bullock 2011).

when presented with opposing frames of sim-ilar strength (e.g., both strong or both weak),endorsed by different parties, partisans opin-ions move only in the direction of the frameendorsed by their party. In this case, partyendorsements drive opinions, in the face ofarguments that do not differ in strength.

Under conditions of high polarization, whenpresented with opposing frames, regardless ofstrength, partisans opinions move only in the di-rection of the frame endorsed by their party. Inthis case, party endorsements drive opinions, re-

gardless of argument strengththat is, even if theother partys argument is stronger.

In sum, partisan endorsements matter in low-polarization conditions when both parties present ar-guments of equivalent strength; substance wins out oth-erwise. Thus, parties do not always rule public opinion.However, substance becomes irrelevant and partisancues win out when elites polarize. Polarization clearlyplays a role in shaping how policy opinion formationworks: It stimulates greater motivated reasoning. Thisfinding also suggests that, when elites polarize on agiven issue, citizens follow and polarize as well.

Evaluations of Frame Strength

We next test Hypotheses 2 and 4, which posit thatpartisan endorsements should affect the evaluationsof the frames themselves. This possibility comes di-rectly from the theory of partisan motivated reasoningin which argument source serves as a perceptual screenfor evaluating argument quality (e.g., Druckman andBolsen 2011). We test these hypotheses with our afore-mentioned measures that asked respondents to assessthe effectiveness of each frame.

We present the results in Tables 3 and 4: Table 3a forDemocrats on drilling, 3b for Republicans on drilling,4a for Democrats on the DREAM Act, and 4b forRepublicans on the DREAM Act. Each table reportsthe average evaluation score of the pro and con framein each condition (along with the standard deviation).

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TABLE 3b. Republican Evaluations of Drilling Frames


Pro-Stg Con-Stg (2) No Par ties 5.43(1.16)

4.86(1.68)

0.57(2.25)

21

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (3) No Par ties 5.29(1.53)

3.12(1.83)

2.18

(2.58)17

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (4) No Par ties 3.75(1.62) 4.75(1.59)1.00

(2.78) 24

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (5) No Par ties 3.75(1.74)

3.40(1.39)

0.35(2.35)

20


3.64(1.66)

1.72

(2.46)25


3.00(1.15)

2.23

(1.88)22


4.60(1.76)

0.90

(2.99)20


3.38(1.36)

1.88

(2.21)26


3.19(1.85)

2.42

(3.03)31


(1.35)

3.07

(1.44)

2.60

(2.18)

30


2.75(1.52)

2.60

(2.66)20


3.19(1.63)

1.90

(2.45)21


TABLE 4a. Democratic Evaluations of DREAM Act Frames


Pro-Stg Con-Stg (2) No Par ties 4.59(1.62)

4.21(1.68)

0.38(2.87)

29

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (3) No Par ties 5.03(1.72)

3.35(1.66)

1.68

(2.82)31

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (4) No Par ties 3.58(1.73)

4.85(1.30)

1.27

(2.49)33

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (5) No Par ties 3.76(1.56)

3.84(1.57)

0.08(2.52)

25


4.19(1.51)

0.55(2.59)

31


2.78(1.24)

2.48

(2.11)23


4.50(1.32)

0.83

(1.95)24


3.60(1.63)

0.60

(2.39)30


3.71(1.73)

1.04

(3.06)24

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (11) Polarized 4.96(1.61)

3.08(1.57)

1.88

(2.97)26


3.29(1.71)

1.38

(2.48)24


3.09(1.48)

1.77

(2.05)22


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TABLE 4b. Republicans Evaluations of DREAM Act Frames

Frames (Condition) Cues Pro-Statement Con-Statement Difference N

Pro-Stg Con-Stg (2) No Parties 4.53(1.42)

4.94(1.78)

0.41(2.24)

17

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (3) No Parties 4.25(1.80)

3.75(1.39)

0.50(2.30)

24

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (4) No Parties 3.69(2.21) 5.31(1.89)1.63

(3.69) 16

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (5) No Parties 3.52(1.98)

3.68(1.46)

0.16(2.43)

25


5.15(1.46)

1.00

(2.73)20


3.67(1.49)

0.67(2.96)

21


4.94(1.70)

1.66

(2.15)32


3.95(1.43)

0.95

(2.11)20


5.18(1.42)

1.82

(2.67)28


(1.79)

4.96

(1.66)

1.96

(3.18)

26


4.92(1.38)

2.08

(2.76)26


5.00(1.63)

2.23

(2.72)22


Another key statistic, the difference between evalua-tions of the pro and con frames, is also listed in eachtable. Hypotheses 2 and 4 suggest that, as party cuesare added, these evaluation differences should become

significant, with the argument endorsed by a partisansown party receiving a more favorable evaluation. Apositive significant difference indicates that respon-dents found the pro frame significantly more effective.A negative significant difference suggests that respon-dents found the con frame significantly stronger.27

As expected, with no party endorsements, partisansof both stripes saw the strong frames as significantlymore effective than the weak frames, regardless ofwhether they are pro or con. (The one exception oc-curred in Condition 3 for the DREAM Act frames;whereas Democrats rated the pro frame as significantlymore effective than the con, the difference betweenthe two for Republican respondents was statistically

insignificant from zero.). When the frames are evenlymatched, respondents did not see significant differ-ences between them. These findings echo our pretestresults and show that both partisan groups agree overwhich frames are strong and weak. These differencesin evaluations of frames are also consistent with the

27 Overall, Democrats found the con frames on drilling and the proframes on the DREAM Act stronger, whereas Republicans foundthe opposite frames stronger (i.e., pro frames on drilling and conframeson theDREAM Act). These differences were consistent withpartisan values. This is not relevant to our hypotheses, however,because we are concerned with how party cues and polarizationchange evaluations of these frames.

opinion differences found in Figures 1a-b and supportan implication of Hypothesis 1.

When we turnto the non-polarizedpartisan endorse-ment conditions, the results matched what we found in

Figures 2a-b. In short, when facing different strengthframes, partisans ignored the endorsements andevaluated the stronger frame as more effective (theonly exception is Condition 7 where the DREAM Actdifference is not significant among Republicans). Thesefindings again point to the strength of substance overcues in non-polarized conditions. However, we alsosaw some tendencies for partisan bias in the evalua-tions of equal-strength frames. Republicans evaluatedtheir partys frame as more effective in the equal-strength non-polarized conditions (6 and 9), indicat-ing motivated reasoning. Similarly, on the DREAMAct, Democrats facing two weak frames (Condition9) found the frame from their party more persuasive.

Overall, however, the substantive content of the framestended to dominate in their evaluations, even whennon-polarized party cues were present, with motivatedreasoning only occasionally taking place when the com-peting frames were equally strong.

We observed very different results in the partisanpolarization conditions. We found that partisans alwaysevaluated the frames endorsed by their party as signif-icantly stronger, regardless of the policy issue. Thus,polarization seems to spark motivated reasoning, andpeople clearly evaluate frames differently in the pres-ence of polarization. On the drilling issue, this was mostapparent for Democrats by comparing Conditions 3,

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7, and 11all conditions that included a strong-proframe and a weak-con frame. In the no-party cue andnon-polarized cue conditions, the Democratic partici-pants saw the pro frame as significantly stronger. Yet,this flipped completely in the polarized condition (11).For Republicans, we saw the exact same dynamic inConditions 4, 8, and 12. In the two former conditions,Republicans always evaluated the con frame as sig-

nificantly stronger (even though their party endorsesthe opposite side of the issue), but when the partieswere polarized (12), this switched and they perceivedthe pro frame as significantly stronger. This meansthat motivated reasoning affected both the pro andcon frames. Again, similar dynamics occurred on theDREAM Act issue. These results strongly supportedHypothesis 2 and partially supported Hypothesis 4.We observed only partial support for Hypothesis 4because some motivated reasoning took place in thenon-polarized conditions when the arguments were ofequal strength (i.e., there was not always statisticallysignificantly greater motivated reasoning in the polar-ized than non-polarized conditions).28

In sum, these frame evaluation dynamics demon-strated that partisan polarization influences both theextent to which citizens rely on substantive informa-tion and party cues when forming policy opinions andhow citizens process substantive arguments. Partici-pants from both parties evaluated the stronger frame asmore persuasive in conditions without a party endorse-ment, and they also did so, largely, in a low-polarizationenvironment when the strong frame is matched witha weak frame. Partisan polarization altered the argu-ment evaluation process, however, with strong framesrated as ineffective in polarized conditions if they didnot receive an endorsement from the individuals own

party. In these same polarized conditions, half-heartedevaluations of weak frames turned into enthusiasticevaluations if the frame received an endorsement bythe individuals party. These findings further empha-

28 To see if the differences in frame evaluations were different underpolarization than non-polarization, we compared the significance offrame evaluationsacross analogous conditions(e.g., in non-polarizedversus polarized cases). On the drilling issue, among Democrats, theexpected differences were statistically significant(atp .10 or lower,one-tailed tests). Thus, in all conditions, when expected, the framesponsored by the Democrats was evaluated more favorably (relativeto the opposite frame) in the polarized conditions than in the non-polarized conditions. The only case where, as expected, there wasnot a difference was between Conditions 8 and 12 because the strong

frame is consistent with the party endorsement (so regardless of thestandard of evaluation, the Democratic frame should be seen as thestrongest in both conditions). Among Republicans, however, therewere not the expected differences between Conditions 6 and 10 and9 and 13, largely because Republicans already in the non-polarizedconditions, as noted, showed signsof motivated reasoning.Turning totheDREAM Actissue, we foundthe expected differences significantforDemocrats, except between Conditions 6 and10 where thediffer-ence in assessments of frames was in the expected direction but wasnot large enough to reach statistical significance. Among Republi-cans, tests of significance confirmed the expected differences, exceptbetween Conditions 6 and 10 where Republicans, again, showedsome motivated reasoning in the non-polarized conditions. We againfound the expected nonsignificant comparisons between Conditions7 and 11 for Democrats and 8 and 12 for Republicans (when theframes and cues agreed with one another).

size that partisan polarization is a crucial conditionfor how citizens respond to competing sides in pol-icy debates. It is also evidence of partisan motivatedreasoning whereby a salient partisan identity colorsargument evaluation. Party endorsements, particularlyunder conditions of polarization, do not appear to sim-ply serve as cues people follow. Instead, cues seem toshape how the public views arguments put forth by

different sides.

Opinion Importance

Our final hypothesis (6) posits that opinion importanceshould grow as a partisan sponsor is added and, partic-ularly, when the parties are polarized. This is a some-what ironic prediction insofar as people are gainingconfidence in opinions that, in some sense, are lessbased on the substance of the argument. We tested thishypothesis with our item that asked individuals to rate,on a 7-point scale, how much importance they attachedto their attitude on each issue.

To test this hypothesis, we used the control group asa baseline and expected that adding partisan sponsors,particularly under conditions of polarization, shouldresult in an increase in attitude importance. We presentthe percentage change relative to the control groupfor each condition and each partisan group in Table 5.We present the means and standard deviations in Ap-pendix B (Tables B.3 and B.4). The results accentu-ate the dramatic effect that partisan polarization canhave. Without a polarized environment, we saw lit-tle change in attitude importancethe only significantchanges came from Republicans in equal-strength con-ditions (6 and 9) on the drilling issue and marginally byDemocrats in Condition 8 on the DREAM Act. Yet in

every polarized condition, and for both issues, individ-uals became dramatically more confident in their opin-ions (by 12% to 18%). Thus, Hypothesis 6 is supportedbecause the polarized conditions have a significantlygreater impact on attitude importance than the non-polarized conditions in nearly every case (although wedid expect more changes in the non-polarized condi-tions than were observed).29

In short, not only does a polarized environment in-crease partisan motived reasoningand decrease re-liance on substancebut it also causes people to viewtheir opinions as moreimportant. Attitude importance,in turn, has been shown to affect a variety of behaviorssuch as willingness to persuade others or otherwisetake action on behalf of an issue (Visser et al. 2006). Inthe long term, overconfidence may speak to the stabil-ity of political parties in general (Johnson and Fowler2011), which may be of concern: Polarized parties leadto more confidence in opinions; that is, people consider

29 As noted with regard to other hypotheses, confirmation of Hy-pothesis 6 required comparing differences between non-polarizedand polarized conditions. By merging the four polarized conditionsand comparing them with the four non-polarized conditions, wefound that opinions on both policy issues were significantly moreimportant under conditions of polarization than non-polarization,among both Democrats and Republicans.

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TABLE 5a. Shift in Attitude Importance of Drilling Opinions(Relative to Control Group)

Frames (Condition) Cues Democrats Republicans

Pro-Stg Con-Stg (2) No Parties 2.3% 4.5%Pro-Stg Con-Wk (3) No Parties 3.2% 7.7%Pro-Wk Con-Stg (4) No Parties 1.0% 0.7%

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (5) No Parties 2.4% 6.3%Pro-Stg Con-Stg (6) Non-Polarized 0.5% 14.6%

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (7) Non-Polarized 3.9% 4.4%Pro-Wk Con-Stg (8) Non-Polarized 5.3% 7.1%Pro-Wk Con-Wk (9) Non-Polarized 2.1% 8.8%

Pro-Stg Con-Stg (10) Polarized 11.6% 15.1%

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (11) Polarized 12.9% 16.3%

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (12) Polarized 10.8% 13.8%

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (13) Polarized 12.4% 13.8%

p .01; p .05; p .10 for one-tailed tests (relative to the control group).

TABLE 5b. Shift in Attitude Importance of DREAM ActOpinions (Relative to Control Group)

Frames (Condition) Cues Democrats Republicans

Pro-Stg Con-Stg (2) No Parties 2.0% 1.6%Pro-Stg Con-Wk (3) No Parties 0.9% 4.2%Pro-Wk Con-Stg (4) No Parties 4.1% 7.6%Pro-Wk Con-Wk (5) No Parties 6.8% 7.6%Pro-Stg Con-Stg (6) Non-Polarized 7.4% 5.6%Pro-Stg Con-Wk (7) Non-Polarized 4.3% 3.2%Pro-Wk Con-Stg (8) Non-Polarized 9.0% 7.1%Pro-Wk Con-Wk (9) Non-Polarized 8.1% 1.4%Pro-Stg Con-Stg (10) Polarized 16.0% 18.1%

Pro-Stg Con-Wk (11) Polarized 12.3% 17.1%

Pro-Wk Con-Stg (12) Polarized 12.6%

17.1%

Pro-Wk Con-Wk (13) Polarized 9.8% 12.4%

p .01; p .05; p .10 for one-tailed tests (relative to the control group).

them more importanteven though these opinions areless substantively grounded (i.e., confidence is one di-mension of attitude importance). This is a neglectedconsequence of partisan polari

Druckman Et Almond 2013 How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation

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