Drought Predictability in Mexico
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Drought Predictability in Mexico
Francisco Muñoz Arriola1, Shraddhanand Shukla1, Lifeng Luo2, Abel Muñoz Orozco3, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington
2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University
3Colegio de Posgraduados
American Meteorological Society
Phoenix, AZ January 12th 2009
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Outline• Motivation• Mexican Droughts• Objectives• The University of Washington West-wide
Forecast System• Drought assessment• Soil Moisture Percentile, Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) assessments
• Conclusions• Future Work
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Physical Features
Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEGI)
•More than 70% of its surface is considered topographically steep•Has the largest biological diversity, natural and agricultural (e.g. corn) found in North America•Precipitation regimes dominated by summer events (with different spatiotemporal patterns)•Various drought periods along the year
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17.81%
2.05%
0.52%
0.01%
79.62%
0 20 40 60 80
Drought
Hurricanes
Rainfall
Frozts
Hail
Source: SAGARPA. 1995-2004
Agricultural Damages by Hydrometeorological Phenomena
•Great part of the agriculture is unirrigated •44% during the Fall-Winter cycle•84% during the Spring-Summer cycle
•The largest damages are related to hydromet. Phenomena•Interannual differences in the spatial patterns of drought occurrence
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2
3
41
1. Mexico2. Northwestern3. North Central4. South
Droughts in Mexico• Great winter drought (3 and 4)– winter and part of the spring– Affects moisture availability for
crop seeding– Distribution, same as MSD
• Mid-summer drought (3 and 4)– Eastern of Sierra Madre Occidental,
Central and Southern Mexico– Decrease in rainfall (July-August)– Affects flowering in Mexican
unirrigated croplands• Pre-monsoonal drought (2)
– Spring drought over Northwestern Mexico
– Affects water storage and irrigate agriculture
• Mediterranean drought (2)– Occurs in areas of Mediterranean
climates– Affects agriculture and water
availability in the Peninsula of Baja California
– All over the year except Fall and Winter
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Research QuestionsDue to the reduced availability of information
regarding drought predictability and given the impacts of this condition in Mexico we aimed to answer the following questions
• Are there changes in the seasonal predictability of drought given the initial conditions along the year 2007?
• How drought predictability varies in different parts of Mexico?
• Are there differences between the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and the Climate Forecast System?
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OBJECTIVE• Evaluate the seasonal drought predictability
in Mexico at different sub-domains through the use of the UW Extended West-wide Seasonal Hydrological Forecast System– Apply the ESP and CFS to distinguish differences
in drought predictability
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UW Extended WSHFS and ESP
•Based on the use ensemble techniques applied to generate forcing data for a Land-surface hydrology model
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Drought Predictability Assessment
Long-termHistorical Observed
Atmos. Forcing
RealtimeAtmos. Forcing
VIC
Long-termHydrological States
VIC
RealtimeHydrological States
Soil Moisture Percentiles (SMI)ESPs , CFSs, and Nowcast
RMSE OBS (NCAST) and Forecast (ESP
and CFS)
1971-2000
2007 Initializations
Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov
Mexico, North Central,
Northwest, andSouth
Modelling-basedAtmos. Forcing +
Long-term
VIC
CFS-Long-termHydrological States
1971-2000ESP CFSNCAST
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Initial ConditionsMarch
April
May
June
Observations Forecasts
ESP CFS
Ensemble Performance (soil moisture Percentiles)
2007
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1-month lead
2-month lead
3-month lead
Initialization Month
Forecast Month
RMSEforecast/RMSEclimatologyRMSEforecast
Drought PredictabilityESP
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June
July
August
March3-m L
May1-m L
May2-m L
May3-m L
July1-m L
Initial ConditionsMonth-lead
Mexico
Forecast and North American Drought Monitor
ESP
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Monitored Drought Indices (ESP) for August 2007
Standarized Precipiatation Index
Standarized Runoff IndexSoil Moisture Percentile-Observations
Soil moisture Percentile-Forecast
North American Drought Monitor
Shukla and Wood (2008)
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Conclusions
•Differences in the predictability along Mexico showed•The largest drought predictability occurred in North-central Mexico, while the lowest occurred in the South.•Largest values of RMSE were observed during the Summer period in all sub-domains•Low RMSE values indicate high skill in the forecast for those initialized late in the Fall•Initialized in March 2007, ESP and CFS performances show spatial differences, while ESP outperforms CFS in general, over particular domains such as in South Mexico CFS outperform ESP.
• The UW-West-wide Hydrological Forecast System registered drought events recorded by the NADM plus other events reported by Mexican agencies regarding agriculture impacts of drought in parts of Baja California Peninsula, San Luis Potosi, Michoacan, and Northern Oaxaca
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Future Work•Evaluate the interannual variability in the ESP and CFS performances to complement the drought predictability assessment•Involve more land surface models through the application of the University of Washington Surface Water Monitor, which uses (NOAH, LCM, and SAC models to monitor and predict drought (its development is currently in progress).•Evaluate the drought predictability over a larger domain
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Thank you!
Tlaloc, the Aztec God of Rain, responsible of drought and flood (Borgia Codex)
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1-month lead
2-month lead
3-month lead
Initialization Month
Forecast Month
cccc
cccc
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Forecasts Observations
I.C.
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1-month lead
2-month lead
3-month lead
Initialization Month
Forecast Month
Forecasts Observations
I.C.
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Climatology vs Forecast
RMSEforecast/RMSEclimatology
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NorthwestNorth Central
Observed Forecast
Water Balance
March
May
4 5 69.82174 20.7722 24.6275
4 5 68.95524 10.1492 7.14049
6 7 819.448 21.8507 23.6503
6 7 84.55644 7.23925 10.2422