Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará · Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins...
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International Expert Symposium - “Coping with Droughts” Building a Community of Practice on Drought Management Tools 19th – 21 th November 2014, Santiago, Chile Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto Eduardo Martins FUNCEME Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources
Transcript of Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará · Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins...
International Expert Symposium - “Coping with Droughts”
Building a Community of Practice on Drought Management Tools
19th – 21 th November 2014, Santiago, Chile
Drought
Monitoring and Forecasting
in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto
Eduardo Martins FUNCEME
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources
Shalow soils, cristaline embasement which can frequently be seen at the surface, higher evaporation, a highly concentrated rainfall regime
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Flo
w (
m^
3/s
)
Month
Mean
Median
Quantile
(75)
Ephemeral rivers: run during few months of the first semester
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Monthly Climatology of Precipitation
An
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Evap
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Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Climatology of Precipitaion in Ceará
Seasonality of Orós Inflow
Seasonality of rain determined by N-S migration of the ITCZ
Rain Start: ITCZ reaches Southernmost (February)
Rain End: ITCZ migrates North of Equator (June-July)
Context
High Variability of Rainfall
Regions
Context Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
FUNCEME Monitoring Center
S Band and X Band
Meteorological Radars
(FUNCEME)
550 Raingage Stations
(FUNCEME)
Meteorological DCPs
(84 stations)
(FUNCEME)
METEOSAT Satellite Reception
(FUNCEME)
Tropical Atlantic Buoys Data
(Pirata Project)
Monitoring Network Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
149 Reservoirs Data
(COGERH)
4 Regional Climate Models
(dynamical/statistical) + 1 (WRF 3.5)
MRM
The state climate forecast includes:
1.Global Climate Models ECHAM 4.6,
CFSv2 +1 (CAM3)
Multi-ensemble: CPTEC/INPE (3GCMS),
INMET & FUNCEME (ECHAM4.6)
March AMJ
Climate Forecast System Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTS & WATER ALLOCATION
Water Forecasting System Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTS – DYNAMICAL MODELS
Water Forecasting System Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Demand/Supply Scenarios Runs
Water Allocation Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
SIGA - Integrated System for Management of Water Allocation
GCMS RESULTS FOR NE BRAZIL Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Aridity Index
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WATER ALLOCATION IMPACTS Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Map of pedological suitability
Map of climatic suitability
Crop
Restrictive and/or potential factors of soil
and climate
Map of pedoclimatic suitability
Pedoclimatic Suitability
Reg
ula
r Ye
ars
Beans
Legenda
C1 - Plena (sem limitações climáticas)
C4 - Moderada (por deficiência Hídrica)
C5 - Inapta (por severa dificiência hídrica)
Araripe
Crato
Mauriti
Assaré
Salitre
Aurora
Barro
Jati
Campos Sales
Caririaçu
Jardim
Milagres
Brejo Santo
Barbalha Missão Velha
Potengi
Santana do Cariri
Farias Brito
Porteiras
Abaiara
Nova Olinda
Penaforte
Juazeiro do Norte
Granjeiro
Altaneira
39°0'0"W
39°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
7°0'0"S 7°0'0"S
8°0'0"S 8°0'0"S
Legenda
C1 - Plena (sem limitações climáticas)
C2 - Plena (com excesso hídrico)
C4 - Moderada (por deficiência Hídrica)
Araripe
Crato
Mauriti
Assaré
Salitre
Aurora
Barro
Jati
Campos Sales
Caririaçu
Jardim
Milagres
Brejo Santo
Barbalha Missão Velha
Potengi
Santana do Cariri
Farias Brito
Porteiras
Abaiara
Nova Olinda
Penaforte
Juazeiro do Norte
Granjeiro
Altaneira
39°0'0"W
39°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
7°0'0"S 7°0'0"S
8°0'0"S 8°0'0"S
Legenda
C1 - Plena (sem limitações climáticas)
C2 - Plena (com excesso hídrico)
Araripe
Crato
Mauriti
Assaré
Salitre
Aurora
Barro
Jati
Campos Sales
Caririaçu
Jardim
Milagres
Brejo Santo
Barbalha Missão Velha
Potengi
Santana do Cariri
Farias Brito
Porteiras
Abaiara
Nova Olinda
Penaforte
Juazeiro do Norte
Granjeiro
Altaneira
39°0'0"W
39°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
7°0'0"S 7°0'0"S
8°0'0"S 8°0'0"S
Dry
Ye
ars
Wet
Yea
rs
C1 - Full (without climatic limitation)
C4 - Moderate (due to water deficiency)
C5 – Unsuitable (due to severe water deficiency)
C1 - Full (without climatic limitation)
C2 - Full (with excess of water)
C5 – Moderate (due to water deficiency)
Legend
Legend
Legend
C1 - Full (without climatic limitation)
C2 - Full (with excess of water)
Application on Rainfed Agriculture Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Drought Impact on Rainfed Agriculture Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
2012
2013
2014
64%
73%
29%
Cro
p L
oss
(%
) -
Jan
to
May
2012
102 days
2014
77 days
2013
92 days
Tota
l Du
rati
on
of
Dry
Sp
ells
(d
ays)
- J
an t
o M
ay
To
tal dura
tio
n o
f dry
spells
(days)
Crop loss (%)
2012
Crop loss (%)
To
tal dura
tio
n o
f dry
spells
(days)
2013
Crop loss (%)
2014
To
tal dura
tio
n o
f dry
spells
(days)
Tota
l Du
rati
on
of
Dry
Sp
ells
x C
rop
loss
- J
an t
o M
ay
Northeast Drought Monitor Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
proactive
reactive
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
1. Monitoring and forecasting/early
warning
2. Vulnerability/ resilience and impact
assessment
3. Mitigation and response planning and
measures
Foundation of a drought plan Indices/ indicators linked to impacts and action triggers Feeds into the development/ delivery of information and decision-support tools
Identifies who and what is at risk and why Involves monitoring/ archiving of impacts to improve drought characterization
Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness
Northeast Drought Monitor Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Pre-drought programs and actions to reduce risks (short and long-term) Well-defined and negotiated operational response plan for when a drought hits Safety net and social programs, research and extension
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METEOROLOGY
WATER RESOURCES
AG
RIC
ULT
UR
E
INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK
INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK
INTE
GR
ATIO
N O
F D
ATA
BA
NK
ANA
ANA
CEMADEN
CEMADEN
CPTEC
CPTEC
INMET STATE MET SERVICES
STATE WATER AGENCIES MA
PA
INM
ET/
CO
NA
B+C
EMA
DEN
ST
ATE
MET
SER
VIC
ES/
EMAT
ERS
• 5 categories of drought
• Initial frequency: monthly
• Integration of data:
meteorological, hydrological and
agricultural
• Participatory and collaborative
tool
• Local validation
Northeast Drought Monitor Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Northeast Drought Monitor Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
Main Indicators (12, 4 and 3 months):
• SPEI (Standardized Precipitation
Evapotranspiration Index)
• SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)
Information to support decision:
•Soil moisture (Calculated Soil Moisture
Ranking Percentile – Monthly CPC/NOAA)
•Vegetation Index (Vegetation Health Index –
VHA – NESDIS/NOAA)
•Precipitation (accumulated and anomaly)
Map generated with
SPEI12+ SPI12 +
SPEI 3 and 4 + SPI 3 and 4
Map generated with SPEI12+
SPI12 + SPEI 3 and 4 + SPI 3
and 4 + impact indicators
- Constant monitoring and forecasting
- Implement long-term mitigation actions outlined in the drought plan (e.g., infrastructure and research)
Normal or wet conditions
- Implement short-term mitigation actions; indicators have associated triggers that link with Drought Monitor categories to spur actions in vulnerable sectors pre-defined in the drought plan
Entering drought
- Implement emergency response actions; indicators have associated triggers that link with Drought Monitor categories to spur actions in vulnerable sectors pre-defined in the drought plan
Immersed in extreme drought
- Back to emphasizing monitoring and forecasting and implementing long-term structural activities in the drought plan
Normal or wet conditions
Planning for drought preparedness and how public policy
actions and contingency are triggered by the categories
indicated in the Monitor
Northeast Drought Monitor Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected]
International Expert Symposium
“Coping with Droughts”
Building a Community of Practice on Drough Management Tools
19th – 21 th November 2014, Santiago, Chile
Thank you!
www.funceme.br
