Joint GWP CEE/DMCSEE training: Drought management principles in UK by Trevor Bishop
Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe DMCSEE.
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Transcript of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe DMCSEE.
Drought Management Centre
for Southeastern Europe DMCSEE
Contents
• Drought in SE Europe
• DMCSEE background
• DMCSEE partners and project
• Sustainability of the project results – permanent DMCSEE
How will farming in the SE EU be affected by climate change?
Farming will be most affected by
droughts in the
southern and south-eastern regions.
Source: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector AGRI-2006-G4-05, AEA Energy & Environment and ,Universidad de Politécnica de Madrid, 2007
Drought in SE Europe is not solely the matter of
climate change
Problem identification – recent updates
Bulgaria: June 10, 2009 – wheat output to fall by 20% due to dry conditions
Drought in Slavonia, Croatia: May 24, 2009 -agriculture hit by drought;90 days lack of rain
Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe
Background
DMCSEE initiative – “top-down” approach
October 2004: A “Balkan Drought Workshop” in Poiana/Brasov (RO), co-sponsored by the UNCCD
Outcome: establishment of a Working Group to formulate a proposal that identified the needs and further actions for laying the foundation of the Balkan Sub-regional Drought Management Centre.
DMCSEE BackgroundApril 2006: “2nd technical workshop” in Sofia (BG)
Participants: UNCCD focal points, permanent representatives with the WMO + observers from UNCCD and WMO
Outcomes:
1) Framework for the preparation of a project proposal on the establishment of a Drought Management Centre for South-Eastern Europe (DMCSEE) within the context of the UNCCD,
2) Further steps towards the establishment of DMCSEE.
3) Decision on DMCSEE host (September 2006)
2012 – permanent center?
DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project
15 partners from 9 countries
Total project budget 2.2 M€
Not all countries participate!
(not all countries are eligible)
Environmental Agency of Slovenia Slovenia (lead partner)Slovenian Institute of Hop Research andBrewing SloveniaHungarian Meteorological Service HungaryVITUKI Environmental Protection andWater Management Research Institute HungaryDirectorate for Environmental Protectionand Water Management of Lower TiszaDistrict HungaryInstitute of Soil Science “NikolaPoushkarov” BulgariaNational Institute of Meteorology andHydrology BulgariaAgricultural university of Athens GreeceGEORAMA (non-governmental and non-profit organization) GreeceMeteorological and Hydrological Service CroatiaRepublic Hydrometeorological Service ofSerbia SerbiaHydrometeorological Institute ofMontenegro MontenegroHydrometeorological Service FYROMInstitute for Energy, Water andEnvironment Albania
Water use in agriculturesouthern European countries have the highest water use for irrigation.
It represents around 78 % of the total abstraction in southern Accession Countries and 80 % of their consumptive uses, and 51
% of the total abstraction in southwestern European countries which represents around 65 % of their consumptive uses.
industry11%
public use18%
energy33%
agriculture38%
Europe
DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project
Practical experience with crop-water balance model WinIsareg Irrigation scheduling
Why using WinIsareg (Pereira et al, 2003)?
• soils divided into several layers;
• large selection of irrigation methods;
• results: variety of data
- problems with data
CROP DATA
dates of phenological stages
SOIL DATA
data for different soil layers
CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA
humidity, wind, sunshine…
Etp: in Slovenia we will use Penman-Monteith metod
Impact of climate variability & drought on yield and irrigation requirements
Different irrigation techniques
Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project
Regional implementation of the Standardized Precipitation Index
A statistical method for processing precipitation data; fits the data to local distribution
SPI is independent of both the location and the range of values
- > different seasons and climate areas are represented on an equal basis.
DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project
From regional to local implementationStep 1 Calculation of SPI
Stpe 2 Mapping of SPI
Step 3 Dissemination
Map for SPI3 (30.9.2006)
DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project
Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project
Overview of existing procedures for climatological mapping
risk = hazard x vulnerability
HAZARD
VULNERABILITY
RISK
(Source: MEDROPLAN)
Both, natural hazard due to climate variability, and more subjective vulnerability, cause risk of drought impacts
DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project
Modelling vulnerability (approach 1)
Factors that increase vulnerability
in agriculture:
- soil water holding capacity
- terrain slope and aspect
- land use / land cover
- access to irrigation infrastructure
DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project
Concept of risk
Alternative formulation (approach 2):risk = loss x probability of occurence
Loss due to drought impact in € - > risk is equal to “daily financial risk” (insurance?)
Loss of crop yield - > risk assessment with help of crop yield model?
DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project
Impact data:
Data of crop yield losses
Example –
summer drought 2006 in Slovenia
Archive of administration for
civil protection and disaster
relief
Concept of risk
Impact data
Data of crop yield losses – historical data (bulletins, agricultural reports...)
- > preparation of SE regional drought impacts data base
Concept of risk
Mission of DMCSEE?Understanding of the problem
Regional drought & regional vulnerability to drought impacts
Proper Planning
Informed decision making (promote and strengthen the capacity for drought preparedness)
set-up permanent Drought Management Centre for SE Europe
exchange of knowledge, experience
and best practice on drought issues (SEE
network)
exchange of knowledge, experience
and best practice on drought issues (SEE
network) raise awareness of
decision makers, relevant stakeholders and end
users about importance of effective drought
preparedness, monitoring and management.
Future role of DMCSEE ?
Drought Risk Reduction Effective Actions
Long-Term Strategy for adaptation (of agriculture) to drought
• Preparedness to improve the effectiveness of response and recovery, such as establishing
drought early-warning systems.
• Mitigation measures to reduce the impact of drought prior to their occurrence.
• Adaptation strategies to prepare for and cope with the potential impacts of drought in climate variability and climate change.
Recently, we have started to publish Drought Bulletin for SE Europe. Bulletin contains following sections:
Hot spot - short summary, possibly including a figure. It aims at very short insight of possible circumstances of drought at the time of issue. Additional and auxiliary information (such as methology used, more detailed information on water balance or temperature situation) Report on impacts; content of this section is based on information available in electronic media on the internet. To improve the information, you are most welcome to participate by informing us on drought impacts in the current season in your region. Send your contribution and comments through our contact. Also any other comments on the bulletin content would be highly appreciated.
Please find published issues of bulletin on the web.
Visit DMCSEE web page for updatehttp://www.dmcsee.org/en/drought_bulletin/