1 DROGA5 PRESENTATION TOOLKIT

THE COVID-19 CULTURE TRACKER Droga5 London Strategy

THE COVID-19 CULTURE TRACKER Droga5 London Strategy

Droga5 London and the COVID-19 Crisis

During this unprecedented period, D5L Strategy has adopted a three phased ‘3R Approach’: React, Respond, Renew.

This approach has helped companies like Coca Cola adapt to, and emerge stronger from, shocks dating through 2008, 9/11, 1987 back to the Great Depression of the 1930s. Our day-to-day account teams are directly addressing short term React and Respond initiatives.

The COVID-19 Culture Tracker is geared medium term toward Renew.

It is designed to help identify patterns and extrapolate themes that anticipate the new world order for society at large, and for brands and their stakeholders.

We believe that, whilst harrowing, the storm will provide. This tool has been developed to help us adapt and thrive in the new era as it unfolds. We want our clients to become cited examples in the update on this HBR article: https://hbr.org/2019/05/how-to-survive-a-recession-and-thrive-afterward?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=hbr

The COVID-19 Culture Tracker

The COVID-19 Culture Tracker provides an epistemic framework to continuously track and process cultural phenomena through primary and secondary source data in real time.

The framework organises around 7 high concept dialogues. We then gauge the pendulum swing between ‘thesis and ‘antithesis’ as a source of strategic guidance. It is unashamedly a spread-bet that morphs and shapes as it assimilates new information.

As we enter an era of non-linear change, punctuated by ever more frequent exogenous shocks, we venture that continuous tracking and live-rolling inference will become the new strategic modus.

Track, Test, Infer, Report.

A weekly summary bulletin to gauge the pendulum swings.

Bi-weekly debriefs for extrapolation and hypothesis generation. All underpinned by a continuous 7 strand scroll to provide contextual colour and opportunities to wormhole.

Bulletin 1. Thursday April 9th. 2pm

Three weeks into our study and at this stage it would appear that the pandemic is proving to be an accelerator rather than a series break.

That is, it has catapulted forward emergent trends that we were picking up prior to the Wuhan outbreak, rather than proving a discontinuity with the recent past. In synopsis =>

1. Me vs We

The decade following the 2008 financial crisis proved the decade of Self Optimisation. Algorithms enabled personalisation, the prevalence of data helped us self-quantify, and we socialised our personal brand on our own media. To rebalance we embraced mindfulness and listened to our own breath in solipsistic detachment. And the pandemic has at times seen this self-centered face at its ugliest: from COVID-19 phishing scams, through panic hoarding, to flagrant refusal to observe quarantine guidance. So far however, individualism has been outshone by the marked rise in displays of citizenship and collectivism. From neighbourhood singing, to Netflix and Houseparty gatherings to community volunteering. Humans value that which is rare and, like prisoners in solitary confinement, people are experiencing a new-found appreciation for social connection. More pointedly still is the growing recognition of how individual micro-actions can aggregate to great effect.

This was a theme in emergence prior to the pandemic, as people began to mobilise and find camaraderie in the face of shared enemies like misogyny, populism and climate change. But in the time of COVID-19, irrespective of race, religion, class, age, gender or geography we are for the first time in history all in this together.

This common fate appears to be fostering a new shared identity that might well create a fundamental shift in people’s world view. A swing towards We.

2. Global vs Local In the five years preceding coronavirus, the pendulum had swung sharply from globalism to localism. Populist leaders from Trump and Bolsonaro to Johnson and Erdogan pushed protectionist agendas. Long standing economic unions dismantled and the spectre of trade and commodity conflicts loomed large. Indeed Saudi Arabia sparked an oil price war on the very day that the Italian region of Lombardy began the process of European lockdown. And we have seen many examples of that national self-interest manifest in recent weeks – from phrases like ‘the Chinese virus’ to accusations of ‘modern piracy’ in the international bunfight over PPE. On Tuesday the Brazilian education minister accused his main trading partners in Beijing of deploying COVID-19 as part of a bid for ‘world domination’. But this is a crisis without borders and is already the most shared global experience in history. It has prompted instances of unlikely international collaboration as medical teams from Cuba, China and Russia have rallied to support troubled western countries.

Restrictions on foreign workers have been lifted to help medi-care teams fill their ranks, and attitudes to ethnic minorities and refugees have shifted in stride with our new-found appreciation for key personnel. Previously disregarded bodies like the UN and WHO have regained

authority and again become beacons of trust and objectivity. And whilst we are physically less connected than ever, a world kept apart is nevertheless uniting in bits as we share stories, memes, homeschool tutorials, workouts and entertainment on an unprecedented digital scale. Could our similarities come to outweigh our differences and the world swing away from localism? We suspect that, now exposed, our over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing will soon be rectified, thus preventing a new age of globalisation emerging any time soon. However a healthier spirit of internationalism across the people of the world might well be forthcoming. Too soon to call.

3. Experts vs Influencers The harnessing of anti-intellectualism as an anti-establishment force has been a stain on this century’s teen years. What began as an easy default to celebrity influencers as tastemakers, took on a darker significance when exploited politically. After distraction tactics and disinformation triumphed over evidence-based argument in the European Referendum, the age of fake news and subliminal influence was crystallised in the UK by Michael Gove’s “I think the British people have had enough of experts.” This antipathy for substantiation and proof continues to be evident in Trump's ‘hunches’ on hydroxychloroquine and the likes of Bolsonaro refusing to acknowledge epidemiological modelling. But beneath the political superstructure a return to scientific authority and a trust in expertise has been growing for some time. In 2019 the climate crisis first served to force a wider rededication to facts and corroborated theory. And the response to COVID-19 is now accelerating the shift from influencers back to experts by the day. Chief Medical Officers are event media, epidemiologists are required viewing, Bill Gates and Larry Brilliant are back on the front covers, and we’re all becoming conversant in projections, rates of change and curve flattening.

And while disputes between theorists and the validity of certain data sources is beginning to cause consternation, the very fact that we are placing our trust in logical argument and not empty opinion suggests we’re moving in the right direction. Certainly the decisions of those who chose to ignore the early case learning on COVID-19 are being played out in public in the most horrific way possible. And as lives are lost, so too surely is the credibility of the snake oil salesmen. A swing toward experts.

4. State vs Market The dominance of market driven economies over their state-planned equivalents appeared to be so clear it led Francis Fukuyama to declare the system ‘the pinnacle of sociocultural evolution’ and The End of History as early as 1992. This contention remained relatively unchallenged even after the Great Recession of 2008. Indeed we then saw a further reliance on market forces and a growing appetite for exogenous shocks and their exploitation through disaster capitalism. But throughout 2019 rumblings of discontent had became audible. The voracity of deregulated markets, coupled with a corporate fixation with growth and shareholder value, was proving incompatible with unparalleled environmental challenges. By September the FT ran a full cover declaring that capitalism required a reboot. Davos was later dominated by Greta Thunberg, carbonomics and the climate crisis. This subsequent pandemic has only amplified these calls for a system overhaul. Certainly the capital markets continue to view COVID-19 as a Black Swan event - with speculative monies already fuelling the bulls return. Just as the underworld has quickly spawned new phishing scams for the isolated, and inventive ways to meet demand spikes in everything from hand sanitizer and PPE to cocaine and M16 rifles.

Nevertheless COVID-19 has demanded rapid and sweeping country wide measures. Testing, tracking and isolation at huge scale. And in this regard centralised state intervention has proved more far more effective than countries with market-based infrastructures. And while some doubt has been cast on the official figures emerging from China, the ability of South Korea and Germany to quickly implement testing and provide comprehensive hospital care is evident in far higher infection: survival ratios compared with the UK and USA. In an age of volatile non-linear change, there is growing evidence that market clearing cannot solve all our problems. And that in such conditions state intervention has a role in providing a new kind of efficacy.A swing toward state intervention.

5. Top Down vs Bottom Up The hierarchical structure of the 21st century has so far seen a small constituency of highly rewarded leaders contrast with a huge population of increasingly exploited and disenfranchised followers. Trickle-down economics have been curtailed and social mobility has reduced. The executive-worker pay gap is now such that the average UK CEO earns more in the first three days of January than the average worker will bring home all year. The leadership manuals that dominate the business bookshelves are hardly required when workers are perpetually monitored, penalised with point deduction systems, and slave away under the spectre of zero hours contracts. And so the all-important aspirational dynamic between leadership and followership has eroded and been replaced with resentment. This was clearly pronounced by the voting habits of the under 35’s of ‘Generation Rent’ in the UK Election in December. And in this, the pandemic has again proved to amplify. It has revealed the flaws in our leaders like never before. And by contrast drawn into sharp focus who the real heroes are. With every tone-deaf post that dismantles the cult of celebrity, every Mike Ashley who exploits the lockdown with price rises, or Tim Martin who furloughs staff whilst posting record profits, there is a street that claps NHS nurses, delivery drivers and bin men. The conventional status hierarchies are inverting, as the previously invisible are recognised as all-important.

And as we awaken to the aggregate power of a million individual micro-actions - from 2 metre distancing, to observing quarantine, to only buying a maximum of two items - a new model of leadership is beginning to emerge. A model of leadership where collective decisions and actions lead us together from below – and supplant the once idolised leader upon high…A swing toward bottom-up leadership and inverted hierarchy.

6. Personal vs Public Media Since the inception of Facebook in 2004, media channels have been distinguishable as either personal or public media. Personal media is consumed in private, often on a screen and increasingly on an on-demand, time-shifted schedule. Public media has traditionally been broadcast, scheduled by the supplier and designed to be consumed in communion, as a group or a large audience. Where the act of consumption generates a sense of shared meaning. But since lockdown, the idea that the whole world is now ‘alone together’ has blurred the lines between personal and public, private and communal media. In recent times, social media has been accused of driving more people apart than bringing them together, while linear, broadcast media has seen consumption drop in favour of personal, on-demand content. The coronavirus crisis has, at least temporarily, altered how we consume media and blurred the roles of platforms and channels in our lives. Personal, on-demand media is being consumed in communion through extensions like Netflix Party. Conversely, live music is becoming a more personal experience with the streaming of iconic sets on YouTube, and bedroom DJ performances on Boiler Room. Social platforms are being used to receive one to one, official WHO information. Once dying news media has been revived as a mass live tune-in moment. Broadcast media is connecting people in ways only social was supposed to.

Out of home social experiences like gallery and museum visits are entering private homes through Google Arts virtual tours. Channels and platforms like Houseparty and Rave, that once belonged to niche communities, are increasingly prominent parts of our lives. If COVID-19 is inverting our conventional use of media and reviving old media in new ways, it is effectively fostering a new kind of social media. Social media platforms have spectacularly failed to make society more connected. But this pandemic appears to have accelerated the adoption of new behaviours that are social in experience rather than in name only.A blurring of distinction and emergence of a new social media.

7. Ethics vs Profit At an Accenture client conference in October 2019, Droga5 London presented a view that it was time for brands to step on from Digital Transformation and embrace Ethical Transformation. We argued that a century long fixation with direct effectiveness and short-term shareholder returns had left aggregate effect and long-term stakeholder costs unchecked. As a consequence, we had unwittingly helped fuel over-consumption and the unsustainable business practises behind the climate crisis. The spirit of the session was positive. Surveys revealed a growing belief, across all demographics throughout the world, that companies, and not governments, were more likely to address our dire trajectory. But only if they embraced transparency through the supply chain and redesigned their businesses around good citizenship and the triple bottom line. The concern was that, behind Woke Washing platitudes, many organisations would retrench back into short term profiteering and risk aversion as soon as the going got tough. Then COVID-19 happened and the going got very tough. And within three weeks it has become clear that companies, like people, are splitting between those that ‘will not waste a crisis’, and those that have retreated to ‘kill or be killed’ survival mode. LVMH pivoted their factories to produce hand sanitiser. Decathlon donated all its scuba diving masks to Spanish hospitals. Others satisfied themselves with distancing their logos while furloughing staff. Or begging for federal bailouts, having spent a decade of free cash flow on share buyback schemes. Which side will prevail will depend on the standards upheld by increasingly belief-driven

consumers. Early signs are encouraging. Quickly assembled platforms like https://didtheyhelp.com are helping us to directly hold brands to account. And messenger groups are awash with helpful brand initiatives and criticisms of poor form. More widely, we are all experiencing the largest behaviour change experiment in history. We have witnessed, and will not forget, that businesses can change rapidly and drastically to protect the world. Global travel can be stopped, fake news can be removed, millions of micro-actions can scale rapidly, essential workers can be looked after and local businesses can be supported by global giants. This crisis has already proved that some of the changes once said to be impossible, have become possible. So, when the recovery begins, and new-old problems resurface, people will know that businesses can lead the transformation that the world needs. A swing toward Ethical Transformation.

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