Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia
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Transcript of Drivers of land use changes and opportunities to reduc emissions in indonesia
Drivers of Land use changes acrossIndonesia and opportunities to reduceppemissions (In progress)
Jusupta Tarigan, Andree Ekadinata, Atiek WidayatiJusupta Tarigan, Andree Ekadinata, Atiek Widayati
Quantification of land use change and Q gGHG emissions at the national level
Indonesia
‐ Land area 1,919,440 km2 with population d i 123 76/k 2 M h 70% f h l d idensity 123.76/km2 . More than 70% of the land is forest area by law.‐ Regarded as the country with the third highest emissions (and the number 1 for land‐use based (emissions, with per capita emissions some 30% above those in the EU)
Indonesia Commitment on Climate h i i iChange Mitigation
COPENHAGEN 2009Indonesia committed to 26% emission
LETTER OF INTENT INDONESIA‐NORWAY 2010
to 26% emission reduction unilaterally plus additio
nal 15% through international support by 2020
A two year suspension on all new concessions for conversion of peat
and natural forest
while retaining 7 % of economicGrowth.
Implications of the commitment at national d b i land sub national
• How to quantify and monitored emission?q y
• How to design emission reduction plan?
• Should all province treated in the same way?p y
• How to ensure that emission reduction will not halt economic development?p
• What will be the benefits for local people?
• How will it affect large scale economic plan that g palready decided?
Landcover mappingLandcover mapping
• The land cover maps that cover at least threeThe land cover maps that cover at least three time period considered to be significant in REDD discussion: 1990, 2000, and 2005
• Legend categories should be sufficiently details in reflecting the variations of carbon stock while generic enough to represent LULUCF at national level
• Should reach acceptable level of accuracy for the most recent maps
Overall figure of Land cover change 1990Overall figure of Land cover change 1990 20052005Overall figure of Land cover change 1990Overall figure of Land cover change 1990‐‐20052005
Typical carbon stock of all land use i d i i l l lsystems in Indonesia at national level
Above ground carbon stock map of d iIndonesia 1990
Above ground carbon stock map of d iIndonesia 2000
Above ground carbon stock map of d iIndonesia 2005
Change of above ground carbon stock in I d i 1990 2000 2005Indonesia 1990‐2000‐2005
1990‐2000 2000‐2005 1990‐20051990 2000 2000 2005 1990 2005
Green house gas emission from land Green house gas emission from land / h/ huse/cover changeuse/cover change
1990‐2000 2000‐2005
Annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 3.378 3.390
Annual sequestrations (t C/(ha y)) 0.797 0.697
Net annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 2 581 2 693Net annual emissions (t C/(ha y)) 2.581 2.693
Total Annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.626 0.628
Total Annual sequestrations (Gt C/(y)) 0.148 0.129
Total Net annual emissions (Gt C/(y)) 0.478 0.499
Where the emission came from?Where the emission came from?
75 % of GHG emission from land use change ere prod ced b onlwere produced by only
10 out of 33 province in Indonesia
What has caused the emission?What has caused the emission?
Understanding the drivers of land useUnderstanding the drivers of land use change and strategies based on local
k h ld l istakeholders consultation
Our main assumptionOur main assumption
1 It’s important to understand sub‐1. It s important to understand sub‐national heterogeneity in developing
i i d ti lemission reduction plan
2. It is important to recognize region with similar characteristics in term of forest cover dynamics, threat , andcover dynamics, threat , and development pathways
Methods
Focus Group Discussion
Objectives
1. identify dominant trajectories of land use changes2. identify the drivers of land use changes
j
y g3. identify and rank the emitter land use change4. combine the emission level assessment with economic value of activityeconomic value of activity5. apply the above assessment in the REDD feasibility quadrant
Stakeholders consultation on the outputsStakeholders consultation on the outputsStakeholders consultation on the outputsStakeholders consultation on the outputs
ALLREDDI Pilot areaALLREDDI Pilot areaALLREDDI Pilot areaALLREDDI Pilot area
DRAFT
Land use transition stage in IndonesiaLand use transition stage in IndonesiaLand use transition stage in IndonesiaLand use transition stage in Indonesia
FOREST_COREFOREST_FRONTIER_1FOREST_FRONTIER_3FOREST MOSAICS 1
Papua(forest core)
GorontaloFOREST_MOSAICS_1FOREST_MOSAICS_2
Jambi(forest frontier 2)
(forest frontier 1)
South Kalimantan(forest mosaic 1)
Pasuruan(forest mosaic 2)
Drivers of LUC identified in the workshops
PROVINCE/DISTRICT
Papua Gorontalo Kal‐Sel Jambi PasuruanPapua Gorontalo Kal Sel Jambi Pasuruan
National and Provincial PolicyMarket demand
Populationgrowth Increasing of
Increasing of land requirement
Provincial development plan
Marketdemand on timber CH
ANGE
on forest product and palm oil Increasing gross regional revenue
land requirement Provincial regulation on securing corn
Food security Province spatial planningMarket
Increasing gross regional revenue Increasing of
production Increasing gross regional revenue
LAND‐USE C
Provincial development program Mass economic
price produced by local farmers Increasing gross regional
demand on forest product and palm oil Increasing
land requirementMass economic
Mass economic distribution
IVER
S OF L
distribution Province spatial planningIPKMA permit
revenue Province spatial planning
gross regional revenue
distribution National investment policy
DR
Shrub to Dominant land use changes in five sites Forest to Estate (oil palm) Forest to Timber Forest to Estate
Timber Plantation (HTR)Shrub to
k)
Plantation
Forest to Mi i
(oil palm) Forest to Timber Plantation
Shrub to AgroforestryMagroveto Fishpond
r(C
-Sto
ck
Forest to
Mining Concession
ores
t Cove Forest to
Cropland
Fo
Papua Gorontalo Kal Sel Jambi PasuruanPapua Gorontalo Kal‐Sel Jambi Pasuruan
Time
Participatory approach in discussing low emission development planningdevelopment planning
Objectives: Translating local development plan to the configuration of land use Analyzing the impact of planning on the emission levell t d l Planning towards low emissions
development
REDD QuadrantREDD Quadrant
Q1Q2
issio
REDD REDD Negotiable
em n
scenario
Q3 Q4Non feasible for DevelopmentsREDD
Developments scenario
Increasing economic value
PAPUA
GORONTALO
JAMBI
SOUTH KALIMANTANKALIMANTAN
PASURUAN
Thank youThank you
More detail results data and information:More detail results, data and information:
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/projects/allreddi/