DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006 ‘Scenario Coaster’ Coming to terms with...

DRAFT: June 23, 2006

Bryn DavidsonDRAFT June 23, 2006

‘Scenario Coaster’

Coming to terms with the mainstream peaking

scenarios.

...an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’


RapidDepletionand/or early peaking

SlowDepletionand/or later

peaking

Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets

Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government

4 Energy Scenarios

“Techno-Markets”aka “Sustainable Development”

aka “Sci-Fi Utopia”

“Burnout”aka “Climate Chaos”

aka “Business as Usual”

“Lean Economy” *aka “Powerdown”

aka “Energy Descent”

“Collapse”aka “Mad Max”

aka “Easter Island”

* per David Fleming


CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005

EIA (High Price) 2006

BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere 2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.

Global Oil Production - Peaking Scenarios

(likely head-start required to fully mitigate peaking*)

Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

* per the ‘Hirsch Report’


2006

Global Oil Production ....... Which scenario is preferable? Which is scariest?

1970


Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005


BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.

Global Oil Production – A Scary Peaking Scenario - ASPO

Scary: Fossil fuel production pleateaus, then drops off unexpectedly.

Very few countries have plans in place to deal with the massive economic turbulence...

....‘Collapse’.

...or if you cooperate locally....‘Lean Economy’

@#$%! where’d that come from?!



CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005


BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.

Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA



CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005


BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.


Scary – Part 1: Fossil fuel production ramps up faster than ‘clean-fossil’ technologies that sequester emissions – leading to accelerated global warming, pollution, sprawl, and oil dependence.

...‘Burnout’



CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005


BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.


Scary – Part 2: Fossil fuel production plateaus, then drops off a cliff...

New technologies can’t come close to making up the difference...

....‘Collapse’

@#$%!



CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005


BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.


‘Burnout’

+

‘Collapse’

=

(Probably not a preferred future)

@#$%!



Compiled by Freddy Hutterwww/trendlines.ca

CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005


BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere 2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.

Global Oil Production – Smoothest Peaking Scenario - Laherrere

!

Not too scary: Oil and gas peak around 2012, but we’ve had a few years to get ready.

We encounter some shortages, but the decline of oil and gas is slow enough that some of the ‘clean fuels’ actually make a bit of a difference.

....‘Techno-Markets’.. if the mainstream politicians got the incentives right back in ’06.

....‘Lean Economy’... if you had to

go-it-alone with just your local community.



CERA 2005

ExxonMobil 2005


BP 2005

Koppelaar 2005

Laherrere 2005

ASPO 2005

2006 +20 yr.

Global Oil Production – Energy Transition Strategies


(a)

(c)

(b)

1. Can you generate a broad consensus around the fact that (a) and (c) are possible, but probably not desirable.

2. If so, then plan your mainstream policies around a consensus path* ...probably something similar to (b)?.

3. Develop contingency plans for dealing with either (a) or (c).

4. Start. Now.

* Whether or not you think this is the most probable.. it needs to be the one we can agree on as being preferable – peakniks, economists, politicians, and everyone in between.


Bryn Davidson604.728.0606

[email protected]

Dynamic Cities Projectwww.dynamiccities.org

Rao/D Cityworkswww.rao-d.com

These scenarios are a work-in-progress. Thanks to everyone who has commented thus far...

‘Scenario Coaster’ an addendum to

‘Our Future(s)’

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006 ‘Scenario Coaster’ Coming to terms with...

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