Draft budget for the biennium 2016‐2017 (38 C/5), Item 15

Joint meeting of the FA/PX CommissionsBureau of Strategic Planning (BSP)

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Four scenarios195 EX/Decision 13, para 13 : “requests the Director-General to present to it at its 196th session a draft budget with options based on a ceiling of $653 million and $667 million”

The Draft 38 C/5 presents the following budget scenarios:

$653M (ZNG) – volumes 1 and 2$667M (ZNG+) – volumes 1 and 2$507M (Expenditure Plan corresponding to the ZNG $653M scenario) – Addendum 2$518M (Expenditure Plan corresponding to the ZNG+ $667M scenario) – Addendum 2

Together with:• Technical Note and Annex tables – Addendum 1• Comprehensive Partnership Strategy – Addendum 3

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• Continuity:– 37 C/5 Approved = 2014-2017 quadrennial programmes. 38 C/5 budget aims at smooth

continuation of these programmes.– 2 Global priorities (Africa, Gender Equality)

• Focus: on programme delivery, at various levels:– $653M scenario provides more budget ($4.3M) for the 5 Major Programmes compared with

the 37 C/5 Approved;– ZNG+ scenario: The additional budget of $14M/$11M devoted to 5MPs and UIS;– $507M scenario : Devotes additional support to CLT ($2 million) and IOC ($1 million); – Maintains commitment to Field support;– efforts to pre-position UNESCO for post-2015.

• Prioritization: $507M expenditure plan prioritized as much as possible according to the priority ranking established by Member States in 2013, for the quadrennium.

• RBB: budget of 5 Major Programmes constructed through a new RBB process, based on preliminary workplans by expected result.

Some important features of the Draft 38 C/5 budget

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Budget structure of 5 Major Programmes

• The budgets of all Major Programmes are reinforced compared with the 37 C/5 Approved. • However, the relative weight among the sectors has changed as the result of particular

reinforcement for IOC and CLT. For example, ED’s budget has increased by $1.1M but its relative weight has slightly decreased by 0.2%.

(in $M) Draft 38 C/5 37 C/5$653M $653M

ED 119.1 39.1% 118.0 39.3%SC 64.5 21.2% 62.4 20.8%(of which IOC) 13.3 4.4% 12.0 4.0%SHS 33.5 11.0% 33.2 11.1%CLT 54.7 18.0% 54.1 18.0%CI 32.9 10.8% 32.7 10.9%

304.8 100.0% 300.4 100.0%

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Reinforcement of $11M for the $518M expenditure plan

• The additional $11M benefits the 5 Major Programmes and UIS.• Effort was made to respect the prioritization scale agreed by the Executive Board in 2013.• Focuses on areas of special needs (especially Field presence and activities).• Invests in areas of significance for post-2015 (Ocean, Statistics, STI, etc.) and global

priorities.

(in $M)$507M $518M Reinforcement

ED 79.3 83.3 4.0SC 46.0 48.3 2.3(of which IOC) 9.7 10.2 0.5SHS 22.9 24.0 1.1CLT 42.6 44.7 2.1CI 22.0 23.1 1.1Total 212.8 223.4 10.6

And also to UIS 7.3 7.7 0.4

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Budget weight by programme/administration

Programme Programme Subtotal Corporate Other Total(5MPs) Support Prog. & Services

Prog.Support

37 C/5 App. ($653M) 46.0% 33.5% 79.5% 16.1% 4.4% 100.0%

Draft 38 C/5 ($653M) 46.7% 33.2% 79.8% 16.2% 4.0% 100.0%

Draft 38 C/5 ($667M) 47.7% 32.5% 80.3% 15.8% 3.9% 100.0%

Note: Programme = 5 Major ProgrammesProgramme support = UIS, Field Management, Part II, B, C, Part ICorporate Services = Part III (HRM, BFM, MSS, Information Systems)Other = Reserve for staffing adjustments, ASHI, Loan repayment, Part V

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Decentralization under the 5 Major ProgrammesDraft 38 C/5 Expenditure Plans ($507M/$518M)37 C/5 Expenditure Plan ($507M)

[14,9%]

[6,6%]

[11,2%]

[1,8%]

[8,3%]

[57,0%]

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Preliminary workplans through anew IT tool, indicating:•Clear link of future activities to the expected results•Cost estimate for each activity to attain the expected results (for both operational and human resources)•Examination of funding source by both regular budget and extrabudgetary funds including funds mobilization opportunities

RBB approachThe Draft 38 C/5 reinforces UNESCO’s institutional commitment to Results-based budgeting (RBB). For the first time, the Draft budget for the 5 Major Programmes has been constructed based on bottom-up inputs (preliminary workplans) from programme specialists at HQ and in the Field.

Analysis and arbitration of workplans undertaken by each sector at the regional and HQ level, taking intoconsideration:•Strategic programmatic framework by expected results•Contribution to expected results and field coverage•Indicative budget envelope (RP)•Extrabudgetary resources

a coherent and budgeted portfolio of activities (RP and extrabudgetary) related to each expected result

Further evolutions planned for the future (39 C/5):•Review and refinement of the expected results and their performance indicators in order to enhance the link between the resources and the performance. •Extension of the preliminary workplan process to all sectors/bureaux beyond the 5MPs

1500 workplans

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Lapse Factor (ref: Draft 38 C/5 Add.1 “Technical Note”, Appendix 2)

Lapse Factor = eventual reduction in staff costs due to anticipated turnover and recruitment delays

The Draft 38 C/5 budget is based on a transparent and analysis-based evaluation of the Lapse Factor, taking into consideration:• detailed projections of the vacancy rate for 2016-2017 based on the trends of:

– recruitment period/length,– internal or external recruitment,– frequency of unplanned seprations, etc.

• and the needs for temporary assistance replacing vacant posts, in order to ensure continuation of programme implementation.

Lapse Factor determined at 5%, and considered to be sustainable. staff cost budget is reduced by 5% ($17M)

The organization is committed to containing the staff cost expenditure within this reduced budget through strict monitoring.

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Estimate was made based on :• common criteria and understanding; • Detailed studies by the individual sectors of the likely costs;• significant efforts for cost-containment;• restricted interpretation to exclude over-estimate

Incompressible costs provisionally identified for :

Incompressible costs under Draft 38 C/5(ref: Draft 38 C/5 Add.1 “Technical Note”, Appendix 3)

5 Major Programmes:Statutory costs: programme costs of the statutory and mandatory meetings designated by governing bodies.

Non-programme sectors/bureaux:•Costs of mandatory bills to be received in 2016-2017 beyond UNESCO’s control (eg: contribution to the UN Joint Machinery, loan repayment, insurance premium, etc.)•Minimum fixed portion of maintenance costs under the premises conditions prevailing in 2016-2017 (eg: costs of electricity, water, heating, security, licenses, etc.)•Costs arising from legally binding contracts already determined for 2016-2017

The provisional estimate of incompressible costs amounts to $88M, i.e., 50.3% of the total operational budget under the proposed $507M expenditure plan.

Future challenges:• Definition of incompressible costs to be further refined • Methods of estimating the incompressible costs to be unified • Possibility of cost reduction to be pursued

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Absorption of some $27M was required for :• all statutory and inflationary costs arising in 2014-2015 (+$14M)• additional costs required for the Joint UN Machinery (+$2M)• new provision for ASHI ($3M)• in-built deficit under the 37 C/5 (+$8M)

On the other hand :• Lapse Factor 5% contributed to budgetary reduction (-$17M)

Net absorption of some $10M has been made in order to establish the $507M scenario, through various cost savings, eg:• HQ office space optimization (-$1.8M)• Reduction in staffing structure (-37 posts compared with 37 C/5 actual workplan-based structure)

Particular consideration given to:• CLT: additional budget of $2M • IOC: additional budget of $1M

Compared with the $653M scenario, the $507M expenditure plan has not only resulted in reduced budget allocation for all sectors/bureaux, but also :

• includes no supplementary funding for the Field Network Reform• includes no provision for corporate-wide training• Includes no reserve for staffing adjustments (reclassification and agreed separations)• has less number of posts (-115 posts)

Budgetary priority ranking decided by the Executive Board (5X/EX/Decision 2) was applied as much as possible to define:• $507M expenditure plan vs $653M scenario• $518M expenditure plan vs $667M scenario

$507M expenditure plan: budget challenges

UNESCO's budget at its lowest in 15 yearsThe continued suppression of UNESCO’s resources affects the level and/or quality of services provided.

UNESCO’s purchasing power has dramatically decreased, when compared with 2000‐2001.

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37 C/5: $653M to $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $518M

Overall reduction of $34.8M

Operational budget reduced from $50M to $29.2M, with a 30% reduction in the allocation to Category 1 Institutes

Further reduction of $3.8M

Operational budget level at $27.9M, of which $12.5M to Category 1 Institutes

Increase of $4M

Restore operational budget to $31.9M, of which $14.8M to Category 1 Institutes

Diminished delivery capacity particularly in priority areas:

- Policy and Sector-wide Planning,

- Literacy

- Teachers

(alleviated to a certain extent through extrabudgetary resources)

=> Limited capacity to deliver and respond adequately to rising requests from Member States

Reliance on extrabudgetary resources which are not always sustainable

+ Priority given to capacity development and policy advice in the priority education areas to Member States, particularly in Africa and LDCs

+ Enhanced capacity to support Member States to implement the post-2015 sustainable development agenda and achieve the SDG on education

EducationComparison of 37 C/5 and Expenditure Plans

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37 C/5: $653M to $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $507M

38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $518M

Overall reduction of $14.2M

Loss of 15 posts and lack of specialist capacity, especially in the Field

Same budget level

Loss of 9 additional posts

Increase of $1.8M

Creation of 6 posts

Science policy extremely weakened : no new development of science policy programmes and networks in developing countries, no specialist capacity in APA region, network weakened in LAC.

Insufficient delivery in the field for engineering, MAB programme (ASPAC, LAC, Arab region), biosphere reserves for assisting Caribbean SIDS

Endangered or on hold: hydrology in danger, IBSP project (project “Biotechnology for developing World”) dropped, International Drought Initiative on hold

Loss in “space technology” expertise

Reduction in ability to respond to “disaster risk reduction” in LAC

Capacity to deliver further reduced, in particular in LAC and ASPAC, further hampering the MAB programme, the assistance to Caribbean SIDS and the science policy

+ Take forward SDGs on freshwater, biodiversity & science policy development

+ Strengthen presence in Africathrough creation of NPOs

+ Additional P4 to strengthen water programme in Arab/Africa region & maintain UNESCO’s leadership within UN-Water

+ Less dependent on XB funds for core programme activities in MAB

Natural SciencesComparison of 37 C/5 and Expenditure Plans

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37 C/5: $653M to $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $507M

38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $518M

Overall reduction of $3.4M + loss of USA voluntary contributions (base of IOC global programmes)

Increase of $1M Increase of $0.5M

IOC’s core mission is in jeopardy

Hampered ability to exercise leadership in certain global programs & achieve the full potential of IOCARIBE

Will not respond to high requirement from Pacific Islands Countries in tsunami warning decision capacity development, no support to Tsunami Information Centres in NEAMS and Caribbean regions

No capacity development in Marine Spatial Planning or Harmful Algal Blooms and related data management aspects

No climate change adaptation support to SIDS

No 2nd phase of the climate change coastal adaptation in West Africa

Global Ocean Observing System will not be able to develop Internationally coordinated locally-relevant information products

=> Second biennium under ZNG seriously hinders delivery

Reduced leadership in global climate science

Even with full-time IOCARIBE post, risk of not implementing new capacity development strategy

Limited role in supporting Member States in implementing SDGs

New training programme on Marine Spatial Planning in 4 regions will not be implemented

+ Assist more SIDS Member States in the transfer of marine technology required to achieve SDGs

+ New professional post to coordinate work on ocean warming & acidification

+ Strengthen tsunami & coastal sea level hazard preparedness & awareness with focus on SIDS & LDCs

+ Strengthened monitoring of progress in achieving ocean SDG and climate change adaptation & mitigation targets and provision of related technical guidance/training

+ More substantial restoration of funding to core ocean research & observational activities, at global and regional levels

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)Comparison of 37 C/5 and Expenditure Plans

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37 C/5: $653M to $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $507M

38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $518M

Overall reduction of $9.3M

Abolition of 18 posts

Decrease of $1M Increase of $1.1M

=> Hampered programme delivery, in particular affecting field presence & response to Member States expectations :

-Lack of staffing to mobilize extra-budgetary funds at country-level & to demonstrate capacity to execute activities

-Demand of capacity-building and training in Bioethics cannot fully be met

-Policy advise and support for Youth cannot be fully provided to MS

-No critical mass of RP resources to implement the Action Plan on the Rapprochement of cultures

=> Policy advice & related capacity development greatly further downscaled

+ Will strengthen operational activities in the Field

+ Enhanced Implementation of Operational Strategy on Youth(2014-2021) including regional expansion

+ Facilitate the reach & depth of UNESCO’s actions in bioethics in needy constituencies

+ Robust Action Plan for the International Decade for the Rapprochement of Cultures rolled out

Social and Human SciencesComparison of 37 C/5 and Expenditure Plans

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37 C/5: $653M to $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $507M

38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $518M

Overall reduction of $13.2M

9 posts abolished (situation after redeployment) With 5,7 M Incompressible (statutory meetings)

Increase of $1.7M

10 additional posts to be abolished

Increase of $2.1M

=> Understaffing of Secretariats to the Conventions creates conditions which are “untenable” (IOS evaluation) & capacity to react/innovate is severely compromised

=> Resources available for decentralization are inadequate, especially in the implementation of the 1970 convention & capacity building/technical assistance in the field

=> Cannot further develop the “Slave Route” project, a flagship programme especially within the International Decade for People of African Descent 2015-2024

=> Insufficient resources to prepare new recommendation on museum - Section for Museums & Creativity has been abolished

=> Further pressure put on already overstretched staff

+ Will reinforce capacity-building activities/technical assistance in the Field, critical in the implementation of conventions

CultureComparison of 37 C/5 and Expenditure Plans

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37 C/5: $653M to $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $507M

38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $518M

Overall reduction of $9.2M Increase of $1.5M Increase of $1.1M

Substantive reduction in number and quality of deliverables, including gender-responsive, both at HQ and

particularly in the field, in all its priority areas.

Can’t respond all increasing demands from Member States at normative and operational levels

Hampered delivery in more than half of developing countries, mostly in Africa and including LDCs and SIDS: -World Press Freedom Day celebrations not organized;-Media professionals and government authorities not empowered on safety of journalists;-Pluralistic media and community radio stations not strengthened;-Youth associations not engaged in Media and Information Literacy; -National capacities not enhanced in the areas of open solutions for knowledge societies, including the capacity building for critical mass of teachers and scientists, and documentary heritage not supported.

Programme delivery continues to be destabilized:

-No strengthened expertise in field offices

-No stimulated promotion of freedom of expression, media development and access to information and knowledge, while progress in attracting substantial extrabudgetary resources can not per se substitute the regular budget.

-Same applies to the two global priorities – Africa and Gender Equality.

+ Will help to ensure a proper promotion of two programmatic themes: promotion of free, independent and pluralistic media and ICTs for Development within the post 2015 agenda

+Will help to meet demands from Member States on the area offreedom of expression and safety of journalists

Communication and InformationComparison of 37 C/5 and Expenditure Plans

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37 C/5: $653M to $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $507M 38 C/5 Expenditure Plan of $518M

Overall reduction of $1.6M Decrease of $0.3M Increase of $0.4M

Freeze in posts, hampering the capacity to deliver

Reduced scope of capacity development programme in all areas

Activities suspended, such as the global media survey

Reduced capacity to collect and produce data in all areas

Risk of not being able to maintain leadership in developing the new indicators & framework to monitor the SDGs, particularly in education

+ Slightly expand capacity-development activities;

+ Contribute to improving the quality and coverage of UNESCO database, and support to policy makers for evidence-based data;

+ With additional extrabudgetary funding, maintain leadership in monitoring SDGs especially in education

UNESCO Institute for StatisticsComparison of 37 C/5 and Expenditure Plans