Hot, Flat and CrowdedChs. 9-10Dr. Ron Lembke

Sustainability

Energy PoorSub-Sahara Africa,

minus South Africa = 47 countries20 GW of power,

same as the Netherlands

Add as much capacity per year as China two weeks

550m people no network elect.

75% of households

S. Asia700m no access

Netherlands

Academic Collaboration

Data from Scopus, image from Olivier H. Beauchesne

Darkness at Night

Pop: 1billion

Pop: 850mill

Pop: 127m

49m

24m

Stoves

Open fires , stove cooking1.6 million deaths per

yearYoung children and

mothers

Causes of death (WHO):1. Malnutrition2. Unsafe sex3. Clean water and

sanitation4. Biomass cooking

Stovetec.net

No Grid Access – Health and EdCan’t pump clean water

No communicationsKids have to help carry itNo literacy classes for parents

EducationNo communications, computersAll of human knowledge on the Internet, but no

accessGirls walk miles for firewood and waterFinding time for schoolwork 33% higher with elect.

Hey, let’s move to the city!

ImpactsHealth

Run Medical equipment EKG on car batteriesRefrigeration for medicinesEKG machines- 16 car batteriesTelemedicine, remote doctors, but no powerCan’t desalinate water or run a fan

Business56 days of outages for African mfg companiesBackup generators pollute moreCan’t run plants, equipmentCan’t collaborate, send emails,

Straight to Green Energy?Skipped land linesIf all 1.6 million plugged into the grid?

Added 25% MORE to current energy usage?Electrons

AbundantCleanReliableCheap

Solve health, education and energy problems

Creativity20% of the planet not engaged in solving

world’s problemsThey know the problems first hand

Sustainable Rural CommunitiesSell goods directly to the world with

connectivityPeople move to cities for work, crowdingEthakota, Satyam outsourced back office

operationsProcessing magazine subscriptions, phone

servicesEducated employees, went to big cities, came

backHigher quality of lifeLive near extended family, walk to workNever quit these great jobs

10:Green = Red, White, and BlueEventually, we will all pay the true cost of energy

If it causes climate change, pay for remediation, etc.Total Cost of OwnershipWith all costs included, smartest, most efficient,

lowest costVisibility: blogs, internet

Finite Resources:Land, water, animals, air

Design, build export green energy technologiesClean electrons, clean air, healthy abundant foodMajor competitive advantage of nations

We Need Growth“I start from the bedrock principle that we as

a global society need more and more growth, because without it there is no human development and those in poverty will never escape it.” p.226

Abundant, Clean, Reliable, Cheap electrons

Maybe We’re WrongIf Climate Change isn’t true

Weaned off Middle East Oil, petrodictatorsFewer wars over natural resourcesEfficient houses, buildings, carsFree feedstocks for large %Don’t drill in Mother Nature’s cathedralsEnd deforestationGlobally desirable products – leading

If it is true, and we do nothing?

Developing New TechnologiesContinuous Process Improvement!We need huge investments in R&DTILT: Terrific, Imaginary Low-carbon

TechnologyEconomies of scale

IAE 2008 report

Duke UniversityA-new busesR-natural gas

Competitive AdvantageMother of all markets – Lois QuamTransformation equivalent to Industrial

RevolutionEverything was different afterTo go green, will make us healthier, stronger,

more secure, more innovative, more competitive, more respected.What could be more patriotic, capitalistic than

that?Develop, innovate, “Chindia price”

American Leadership“America is the country of the Future. It is a

county of beginnings, of projects, of vast designs and expectations.”Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1844

“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably will not themselves be realized.”Daniel Burnham, architect, 1911

American LeadershipNixon –

Environmental Protection ActEnvironmental Impact Statement

Moral responsibilityGreatest portion of world’s resourcesMore resources for innovationStanding to affect other peopleGiving more people clean power consistent with

expanding freedomSarkozy - Can’t be first on human rights and

last on environmental responsibilities

New Majority

A Hoax?Global warming, as a man-made and highly

threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration, at worst an utter “hoax.” Over half of House RepublicansThree-quarters of Senate Republicans

“Hoax” James Inhofe, ranking Republican on Senate

Environment and Public Works Committee Source: NYT “Fact-Free Science,” Judith Warner,

1/25/11

Energy EfficiencyAluminum 95% from recycling4% of energy used for light in an

incandescentTon of paper saves 17 trees, uses 50% less

waterMcKinsey: cut energy demand growth by

2020 by half using existing technologies“I don’t want to be the first generation telling

my kids you can’t have life as good as I did.” K.R. Sridhar –Bloom Energy

Family PlanningEducating young women

Better educated, work Earn incomes self & kidsHave fewer childrenMy mom’s cousins

Educate the men9.2 billion by 2050, could be

11.9!

Conservation, Ethics and BalanceEthics can’t be legislated

Norms, values, beliefs, habits, attitudes embraced voluntarily

Consume less, make stuff last longerAnti-capitalist, anticonsumerist wing?We need nature, we need capitalism

We need more growth as a global societyNew habits toward consumption

Rationing electricity? No. Telling you you can’t leave all the lights on all night? Maybe.

Force you to bike to work? No. Force you to put in bike lanes? Maybe.

Congestion pricing

AdaptationPlanting trees to protect shoresAvoiding the problems cheaper than cleaning

up

Clean energy won’t solve all our problems, but it’s a great enabler of other changes

Tax incentives, policiesLittle improvements, one generation after

anotherBreakthrough technologies

TILT: Terrific Imaginary Low-carbon Technology

25 years to become 1% of totalHuge market opportunities today speed this

up?

Incentives

RE < CREEFIGDCPEERPC<TTCOBCOG

Renewable Energy Ecosystem For Innovating, Generating and Deploying Clean Power, Energy Efficiency, Resource Productivity and Conservation <

The True Cost Of Burning Coal, Oil, and Gas

Conclusions

EthanolCorn-based: bad idea,

minimal benefitImpact on food prices 2009

CBO repotEthanol 10-15%Oil prices 22-36% all-time

highRising global demand for

meatWeaker dollar increased corn

exportsConcerns about weather

causing poor crop http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10057/04-08-Ethanol.pdf

Ethanol Gallons of Fuel/AcreFirst Generation:

Corn 400 Sugarcane 650

Second Generation (cellulistic)Switchgrass 1,000 Miscanthus 1,250

Third GenerationAlgae 5,000

Carbon CaptureNatural Gas safely trapped underground

Why not CO2?Ship it in pipelinesFind good locations, monitor it forever

Capturing the Carbon costs energyBurn more coal to pay for the costBut we could burn as much as we wanted?Only captures CO2, not other GHGsCommercial scale just starting

Solar ThermalParabolic mirrors,

fluid in tubes in middleExpensive mirrors

Power Tower – flat mirrors aimed at big towerCheap mirrors, big towerCoyote Springs 74,000 gallons per MW of capacity

Heat can be stored in molten salt for hoursGenerate some power even when sun not

shiningWater issues to clean mirrors,

Photovoltaic (PV) cellsEasily distributed:

rooftops, etc.Some water for

cleaningCost reductionsLikely cheaper than

thermal, in the endNo sun, no powerNeed battery storage

or other source