Dr Phil Baynes DPDG 12.12 - Darlington Pig Discussion Group
Transcript of Dr Phil Baynes DPDG 12.12 - Darlington Pig Discussion Group
Who is Phil Baynes?
Born in Chelmsford, Schooled in Suffolk
Reading University, Applied Zoology with Subsid in Agric 1989-1992
Cambac JMA Research 1992-1997 (Research Scientist)
Royal Veterinary College 1993-1997 external PhD – “The development of a protocol to assess the welfare of gestating sows under various indoor housing systems”
Trouw Nutrition 1997-1999 (Nutritionist/Product Manager)
NuTec 1999-2001 (Nutritionist/Product Manager)
Provimi RTC Brussels, 2001-2002 (Global Pig Research Manager)
SCA 2002 – 2010. (Senior Nutritionist/Commercial Technical Manager)
Baynes Nutrition Ltd - 2010 – present (Managing Director).
Held as consultant nutritionist to Exec Committee of PVS, also adviser to BPEX & NPA
Writes columns for the Weekly Tribune and Pig World (Monthly).
Running Order....
Current global situation.
Options for feed manufacture.
Co-products.
Impacts on cost.
Diet specifications.
Final comparisons.
World Dynamics
Current World Population stands at 7 Billion people
By 2050 will be anywhere between 7.5-10.5 Billion
As countries become more affluent, they want more meat.
Put simply – more mouths to feed yearly.
WASDE 12/13 Season
Projected Jun-12
Wheat Maize Soya
Production (Million Tonnes) 672.06 949.93 271.03
Difference from previous 11/12 -5.50 4.15 -0.39
Demand (Million Tonnes) 681.87 923.39 264.95
Difference from previous 11/12 -4.60 2.38 -0.19
End Stocks (Million Tonnes) 185.76 155.74 58.54
Difference from previous 11/12 -2.37 3.40 0.47
Stocks:Use (%) 27.24 16.87 22.09
Difference from previous 11/12 -0.16 0.33 0.19
Projected Oct-12
Wheat Maize Soya
Production (Million Tonnes) 653.05 839.02 264.28
Difference from previous 11/12 -5.68 -2.04 6.15
Demand (Million Tonnes) 678.22 853.29 258.76
Difference from previous 11/12 -2.44 -3.41 2.03
End Stocks (Million Tonnes) 173.00 117.27 57.56
Difference from previous 11/12 -3.71 -6.68 4.46
Stocks:Use (%) 25.51 13.74 22.24
Difference from previous 11/12 -0.45 -0.73 1.56
Population Commodity Requirement
(based on production)
0
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40
60
80
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120
Wheat Maize Soya
93
120
38
Production/person
2012
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Wheat Maize Soya
653
839
264
798
1025
323
Projected Requirement
2012
2042
An increase of 22% Acreage? GM crops?
Population Commodity
Requirements (based on demand)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Wheat maize soya
97
122
37
Requirement/person
2012
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Wheat maize soya
678
853
259
829
1044
316
Projected Demand
2012
2042
2042 wheat maize soya
production 798 1025 323
demand 829 1044 316
difference -31 -19 7
World Key Harvest Schedule
By Kind Permission of Nogger http://nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/
Wheat
Soya
Considerations for July
Considerations for February
‘El Nino’ vs ‘La Nina’
“El Nino”
“La Nina”
Heavy Rains in South America
Dry in the Midwest of America
Drought in Australia/Oceania
Drought in South America,
Wet in the Midwest of US
Heavy Rains in Australia/Oceania
Floods in Pakistan
Weather impacts....
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23.1
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10.2
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Hipro Soya A/O
Rapeseed Extract
PK Expeller
Sunflower (32%)
Soya Hulls
DDGS
Global Volcanic Activity
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Global Volcanism Program – Smithsonian Institution
Things we cannot control…
• Global warming
• Volcanic Activity
• Incidence of La Nina/El Nino
• Developing economies- China, India etc.
• Political decision making
• Economic downturn
What does this mean for us?
Every country is reliant on home-produced or imported materials.
Shortages will mean potentially questionable materials being used in feed
Options for home-mixing...
Mobile Mill & Mix.
What’s the cost of haulage?
What is required on farm?
Buschoff or Tropper
Liquid Feeding
Balancer meal From compounder or via Mobile/PTO or Static Mills
Co-product From dairy, brewery, bioethanol, confectionary etc...
Types of Co-Product
Dairy
Whey
Whey Permeate
Yoghurt
Buttermilk
Wheat processing/bioethanol
Abracarb
Sedalcol
Enpro
Trafford Syrup
Proflow
Types of Co-Product cont.
Brewery/Yeast Extraction
Brewers yeast
Yeastpro 11
Yeastpro 14
Other:
Confectionary Blend
PPP/Steam peelings
Glucose
Soya Milk (Alpro)
Suggested Range
DE ranges from 14.1MJ/kg to 11.1MJ
Lysine ranges from 1.15% to 0.76%
Who do we believe and what is the impact on diet cost?
Conclusion
Co-product only changes rations from 35kg LW
Continental only changes Finisher 2 diet 65kg to Slaughter.
Total cost of feed Cost per pig reared Margin over feed
Current £228,041.17 £87.61 £37.34
+ Co-product £212,649.26 £81.68 £43.27
Continental £206,380.28 £79.27 £45.69
£35.00
£37.00
£39.00
£41.00
£43.00
£45.00
£47.00
Current + Co-product Continental
Margin over feed per reared pig
Flying Wedge Purchasing.
Soya Wheat
dec 382 225
nov 397.5 210
oct 398 199.05
sep 442 205
aug 432.5 189
jul 371 204.25
jun 337 171.5
may 344.5 177
apr 318 171.75
mar 284 164.75
Average 370.65 191.73 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
dec nov oct sep aug jul jun may apr mar
Soya
Wheat
10% Flying wedge for December
Taken from 1st trading day of each month