Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association

Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Campus Alpine, Germany

www.kit.edu

Linking Measurements with Modeling Tools -A challenge for air pollution research

Peter Suppanpeter.suppan@kit.edu

2 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Introduction

Background

Examples

Conclusions

Overview

3 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

PAN American Health Organization, 2005

Region Percentage change Reference

Asia 4.9% (2.3-7.6) HEI, 2004

Europe 6.0% (4.0-8.0) Katsouyanni, 2001

Latin America 6.1% (1.6-10.7) PAHO, 2005*United States 2.1% (0.9-3.3) Dominici, 2003

Worldwide 6.5% (5.1-7.6) Stieb, 2002

Impact on Health

* Based on studies in Mexico City, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile

PM10 and

Mortality Risk

4 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Impact on Climate Change

Source: Peringe Grennfelt. Air pollution & Climate Change. Two sides of the same coin. Chapter 9. ISBN 978-91-620-1278-6

Beijing

Shanghai

NASA/GODDARD / NYT

Atmospheric

Brown Clouds

(ABC)

5 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

0

50

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PM

10[µ

g/m

³]

Asia Latin America Africa Europe N.America

Annual average PM10 concentrations (µg/m³)

Impact on Economy

Reduction benefit is 10 times higher as for ozone, e.g. Mexico City about $2 Bill.

Molina and Molina, 2002

M. Krzyzanowski & H-G. Mucke, WHOupdate by Jordan et al, CEPAL

Economical

Benefit

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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Land use

Energy

Mobility

Climate Change

Air Quality

Health Impact

What Affects Air Quality ?

Integrated Approach

Mexico City

Beijing

Bogotá

São Paulo

Santiago de Chile

Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association

7 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Land use

Energy

Mobility

Climate Change

Air Quality

Health Impact

What Affects Air Quality ?

The complex interactions of causes of emissions – transmission - air pollution - deposition / exposure and climate change need detailed

investigations on the causal chain

Only multidisciplinary approaches allow a holistic analysis

8 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Emission Data

Integrated Approach

Measurement Data

0 30000 60000-500

500

1500

2500

AL

TIT

UD

E A

BO

VE

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[m

]

P1

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Indicator

Scenario

StakeholderHealth Impact

Mortality

……………

………………….

Subclinical Effects

Chem

Chem

Traffic Data

Urban Development

Air Quality &

Climate Change

Approach

Air Quality

9 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

ScalesGlobalRegional (meso)Local (micro)

Scales Pollutants

Global GHG, O3

Regional O3, PM

Local PM, NO2, CO

Problem: Scales

10 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

In-situ measurements

Active & passive measurements

Remote sensing measurements

Horizontal & vertical

Aircraft measurements

Air pollution dispersion models on all scales

Box, Gaussian, Eulerian & Lagrangian models

Models for different compartments

Hydrology, biosphere, soil, …

Measurement & Modeling Tools

11 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/04/23/article-1268225-094360F3000005DC-143_964x641.jpg

http://de.academic.ru/dic.nsf/dewiki/965468

14 April: eruption plume rose to up to 9.5 km height deflected to the east by westerly winds

16 April: pulsating eruptive plume reaches above 8 km, with overall height of 5 km

17 April: eruption plume loaded with tephra (ash) rises to more than 8 km

Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (E15)

12 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Ash Product

16 April, 00:00 UCT

16 April, 18:00 UCT

Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association

13 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

ash

normal, aged polluted air

large depolarisationindicates ash particles

Measurement Results

Ultra-light Aircraft

average absorption equivalent to black

carbon mass in the seven channels

MULIS

One-our average of particle backscatter

coefficient (left)

linear depolarisation ratio (right)

Schäfer, K., et al., 2011: Influences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic plume on air quality in the northern Alpine region.Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 8555–8575. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/8555/2011/DOI:10.5194/acp-11-8555-2011.

14 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

ash boundary layerclouds

Measurement Results

interaction of the ash cloud with the PBL:

CL31 observations at Augsburg

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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Simulations

MCCM simulation for April 17, 2010 00 GMT

µg/m³

appr. 3.5 km above ground

Cross section of the area of Munich

16 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

model too fast

model too slow

Measurements vs Simulations

Ceilometer results(dots)

vs

MCCM simulations (colours)

Emeis, S., et al., 2011: Measurement and simulation of the 16/17 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash layer dispersion in the northern Alpine region. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 2689–2701. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/2689/2011/ DOI:10.5194/acp-11-2689-2011

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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Example: Mixing layer height

Work in progress

18 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

S

N

OW 

Wind,turbulence profilesLarge SODAR(METEK DSDR3x7)frequency: 1500 Hz

Wind, turbulence, temperature profilesSODAR-RASS(METEK)acoustic frequ.: 1500 – 2200 Hzradio fr.: 474 MHz

Particle backscatterCeilometer(Vaisala CL31)wave length: 910 nm range: 4000 mresolution: 5 m

Small City: Augsburg

Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association

19 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Source: Stefan Emeis, KIT

Remote Sensing

4°C 7°C

8°C

7°C

300 m

40 m

7°C

2°C

RASS SODAR Ceilometer

Wiegner, M., et al., 2006: Mixing Layer Height over Munich, Germany: Variability and comparisons of different methodologies. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 111, D13201

Schäfer, K., et al., 2008: Atmospheric influences and local variability of air pollution close to a motorway in an Alpine valley during winter. MeteorologischeZeitschrift, 17, 3, 297-309

electromagnetic & acoustic backscatter optical backscatter

RASS, SODAR & Ceilometer measurements

0 m

2000 m

20 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Time

Process Studies

Model comparison(9x9km² grid size)

Mixing layer height and air pollution

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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Example: Climate Change

Work in progress

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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Biogenic Emissions

Water availability and monoterpene emissions

(Mediterranean holm oak forest)

Mm

olC

m-2

a-1

Mm

olC

m-2

a-1

Grote, R., et al., 2010: Process-based modellingof seasonality and drought stress in isoprenoidemission models. Biogeosciences 7, 257-274.)

23 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Threshold exceedances in the future

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

Ozone (g/m3)

Fre

qu

en

cy

1991-2000

2031-2039

Distribution of daily O3 maximum

Regional Climate Change Impact

Impact on ozone concentrations

Forkel, R., & Knoche, R., 2006: Regional climate change and its impacts on photooxidantconcentrations in southern Germany: Simulations with a coupled regional climate-chemistry model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, No.D12,D12302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006748 (13pp.)

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Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Aerosol Feedback Mechanisms

Impact on PM10 (July 2006 - monthly mean)

Impact on radiation(July 2006 - monthly mean)

Forkel, R., etal., 2012: Effect of aerosol-radiation feedback on regional air quality - A case study with WRF/Chem. Atmospheric Environment, 45, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv. 2011.10.009 (special issue about the AQMEII initiative)

Dr. Peter Suppan | IMK-IFU

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association

25 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Measurements are mainly representative for a certain location

Models can integrate locations and can overcome the scale problem

Measurement & modeling platforms have to go hand in hand

Only holistic and multidisciplinary approaches can help to get a deeper knowledge about air quality & climate change issues

Only this understanding allows investigations in future developments and recommendations for decision makers and stakeholders to improve air quality and to limit climate change

Conclusions

26 October 21st, 2011 – Peter Suppan1st World Congress of

Environmental Biotechnology19.-21. October 2011 – Dalian

Thank you very much for your attention

Cooperation Partners

Bhola R. Gurjar Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Department of Civil Engineering, Roorkee , IndiaStefan Norra Institute of Mineralogy and Geochemistry (IMG), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Yuesi Wang, Guiqian Tang, Xin Jinyuan Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), BeijingLongyi Shao Chinese University of Mining and Technology (CUMTB), BeijingKuang Cen Chinese University of Geosciences (CUG), BeijingJose Agustín García, Gerardo Ruiz Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), Mexico CityRainer Schmitz, Ricardo Muñoz Universidad de Chile (UdC), Santiago de ChileBarbara Lenz, Andreas Justen German Aerospace Center (DLR), Berlin, GermanyUlrich Franck Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Leipzig, GermanyAnnette Peters, Alexandra Schneider Helmholtz Zentrum München (HMGU), Institute for Epidemiology, Munich, GermanyJohannes Rehner, Ricardo Jordán Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL) in the UN